Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20170216 : vimarsa

CNBC Squawk On The Street February 16, 2017

Legislation. Our roadmap begins with signs of confidence and optimism, those are the words of the president as stocks notch their longest record setting streak in a quarter century. Plus, trumps cabinet trouble. The president s top pick for labor suddenly withdrawing from a nomination with nearly half of his cabinet and Administrative Team still yet to be confirmed. Snap valuing itself between 19 billion and 22 billion as the owner of snapchat prepares for one of the most hotly anticipated ipos of the year. First up though, the historic runup in stocks getting the president s attention. This morning he tweets, stock market hits new high with longest winning streak in decades. Great level of confidence and optimism, even before the tax plan rollout. Hes referring, guys, to the series of record highs set by all three major indices for a running number of days. And if you look back at the first month performance on the s p, jim, hes got the best record. You got to go back to lbj to see an incoming president with a better first month in stocks. Its funny to go back to lbj for that. We go back to the philly index 84, Ronald Reagan get these numbers. I got to tell you, look, im not a Sports Illustrated jinx guy, but when i saw donald trump talking about this is me and the way we get to the taxes and this is the rollout, its like dont change it. Its been going higher. David, youve got to address this. Talk about even before the tax plan rollout, david, every day the tax plan rollout seems to disappear on the horizon. Yeah, well, theres a lot of other things that seem to be coming before the tax plan rollout. I dont even know what that means, rollout. So theyre going to rollout their version of what theyd like to see, i guess. Thats what i guess we can assume, right, jim . Thats what rollout means. Because its not as though its going to happen. This is not an executive order that you get to sign and suddenly it happens, right . This is something thats got to be worked on with the house, with the senate and has then got to be voted into law which is likely not to take place until later this year if not 18. So im as curious as you are what that means and the timing of it of course as you bring up, jim, given all the other turm l turmoil, and i dont think thats an unfair word to use here thats going on in the white house. Yeah, the idea theres a c p queue and a rollout almost as if theres one branch of government. The rollout is the one where there really has to be a team jawboning trying to figure out what the tax plan looks like, try to make it as simple as possible. I think its good that the president mentions things are going well, but in order to get to the next level at a certain point were going to have to have 2018 numbers be driven by much bigger repatriation and of course obviously Corporate Taxes. And, david, no ones even pushing it. Its only you cant legislate by tweet. You can have fun with twitter, but you cant legislate with it. Yeah. Times this morning says congress is on a legislative elliptical trainer gliding toward nowhere because of such little progress on aca. We havent heard a thing about infrastructure really. Obviously the complications about taxes, which well get to. And yet heres the times this morning, jim, finally taking a crack at what we talk about every day which is why stocks just dont care. Investors tune out the worrying headlines as david just referenced, what is essentially allout war now between the white house and the Intelligence Community. Well, look, in the end were stuck with Companies Like cisco that reported last night. And the quarter was really very, very good. Major turn in Business Post the election. Literally one of these things where you say to yourself, okay, i read this quarter, trump isnt involved, obviously they have 71 billion overseas, what a windfall, they can bring it back. But the fact is business is strong. And when you have strong business, we tend to overlook what could propel it to be even stronger. You know what, it is remarkable when youre out here. No one is talking about trump. Maybe theyre talking about trump away from me, but most of them are talking about why business got so strong and where its strong. And a lot of its worldwide. Worldwide can obviously not be hostage to what the senate and house do. Now, guys, there is also this story thats been around for the last few days. And, jim, id love to get your take that theres been this massive shortdated upside call buyer in the s p futures. About 10 billion of delta bought in february and march calls. Ive been hearing this from a number of hedge funds, you know, that there is some fairly large mutual fund, part of their strategy was to buy a call and sell two to three times a higher strike call to finance it. That gets hurt on a rally, that kind of a strategy. So theyve had a recently cover their upside, essentially. The fund apparently whatever fund this is could be down a lot. But that may have also been contributing to why we kept seeing futures in particular but s p move up. This very large buyer out there needing to basically cover. Yeah. Upside thats a strategy from hell in a rally like this. You know what, david, that is a terrific piece of information because what i saw yesterday and what i see over and over again is every time this market flags someone comes in but not in a lot of volume and does some buying. You let up for a second and theres that buyer. That makes sense that it could be the call buyer because you dont really see them in the averages. The volumes very light, but the market just goes up. And the sellers dont seem to ever appear. It creates a kind of virtuous circle because we dont really see that buyer. We dont know when that buyers done. But we also dont have a lot of supply. No one seems to want to put out some 3m, theres no ibm for sale, no cisco for sale, not a lot of microsoft for sale but we do see buyers underneath. We cant figure out where theyre coming from. Thats a nice call. Yeah, apparently its an open ended mutual fund. Again, i want to do a little more reporting on this because it is interesting. And may in fact be having an impact, at least in some the way whats been this incredibly bullish move all week. All week. Very ill advised strategy. One buyer that we do know by name of course is berkshire, charlie monger spoke in l. A. Yesterday about the firms bets on airlines and apple. Take a listen to what he said. Think of over the years about hightech, we dont understand it, its not competency, worst business in the world is airlines, what do we appear in the press with . Apple and a bunch of airlines. I dont think weve got weve gone crazy. I think the answer is were adapting reasonably to a business thats gotten very much more difficult. I dont think we have a cinch in either one of those positions. I think we have the odds a little bit in our favor. Youve got to love that line. I dont think weve gone crazy. Jim, i think munger was once quoted airlines marginal costs with wings. But clearly they dont feel that way anymore. Well, look, when you decide youre going to have you see they generate a huge amount of cash. When they generate a huge amount of cash, thats a very different from the industry for all the years the industry has been alye. So, i mean, look things do change. Were always told dont ever say this times different. But holy cow the cash generation is so huge that its almost ridiculous that these stocks sell at these low multiples, particularly without a lot of addition of planes in 2017. Lets move onto some of the cabinet drama weve seen. You probably know by now the president has to make a new choice for labor secretary. Andrew puzder withdrawn his nomination for the post. Home of carls jr. And hardees lost support from senators on both sides after being hampered about questions about his business. We already know what democrats are calling for regarding special commissions, select committees, pressure now on intel and judiciary, jim, is this the equivalent of shoving a wide receiver at the line . Is it just an initial pushoff or is there something more to it . Well, i think things are coming to a boil in terms of who trump wants versus who he can have. And the vetting process. It just seems like i mean, it was really interesting a lot of coverage this morning was there was fake news hurting puzder, but in the end youve got the situation where you have social media working so quickly on these people. You have a vetting process that was not necessarily done by traditional people within the republican party. So youre going to make mistakes. I dont think that the labor secretary is as important as whats happening with National Security, but it does once again come back to this notion of disarray and if theres disarray, how are we going to come to an infrastructure plan . How are we going to come to lower Corporate Tax rates . Youre going to have to do it all on earnings. So far earnings good, but puzder, wow. I think uniquely not qualified. You know, jim, to what extent does the market just continue to ignore and perhaps it just does because its not of importance this ongoing question about National Security . I mean, the lead story in the wall street journal today, spies keep trump in dark on intelligence in sign of mistrust. Does the market simply not care about Something Like that . I think say we dont have trump, we have pence. The market doesnt care which guy is leading. Look, thats a far afield jump, the president of the United States, the president , but i think theres a sense, hey, listen, it does really matter. Weve got all republicans, republicans arent going to come out and attack the stock market. The tweet this morning from the president is like, hey, all systems go. Again, like look at last night. We had Applied Materials much better than expected quarter, cisco a much better than expected quarter. So when you come in and look at these quarters, say why should i sell them off the fact that every conversation was recorded . I cannot rationalize those two. I got the philly fed so strong, the possibility of three to four rate hikes, these are all the things we want. We cant shoe horn what is going on with flynn with what is going on with ciscos pricetoearnings multiple. One wrinkle to that though, the president did say a year ago this month that the stock market was a, quote, big fat juicy bubble. Nasdaqs up 30 in 12 months. So line up a lot of different factors here. When we come back, bankers lining up for one of the biggest tech road shows in recent years. Well talk to Jeb Hensarling about philly, and a lot more. Jim mentions philly fed, the best number since 84 and pretty much the biggest beat versus expectations on record. Well talk about that when squawk on the street continues. W . Ur mher . M. He doi goo ne carthough. Nts to stay hse dot ow en ere m. Ta with at. Fit, lake look fcila ansee at we cado so we. Li. Lk. L pland. Were opening more xfinity sostores closer to you. Visit us today and learn how to get the most out of all your services, like xfinity x1. Well put the power in your hands, so you can see how x1 is changing the way you experience tv with features like voice remote, making it easier and more fun than ever. Theres more in store than you imagine. Visit an xfinity store today and see for yourself. Xfinity, the future of awesome. Snapchat parents snap amended ipo filing is out, expected range 14 to 16 a share. Value up to 22 billion which is below the companys earlier target. Still, this would be the biggest u. S. Tech ipo since alibaba, jim, and weve talked about the challenges theyre going to have in conveying their Business Model to the street, especially in a time where twitters trying to defend their own model. Compared to twitter i have anthony noto on today both for squawk alley and for mad money. I think twitters skewing too old. And i think snapchat skews exactly for who people want. I know that they can tighten the supply than is going to be offered and the deal can pop very big. I keep hearing the same thing out here which is, yes, facebook cut into snap when they did their stories, but the fact is that snaps got that illusive demographic that everybody wants. So as much as you may want to say the story is not as good, its a heck of a lot better than twitters. What are you going to be willing to pay for this thing, jim, once youve had a chance to really digest the Growth Numbers . That has been the concern at least amongst the investors ive spoken to who have read the initial s1. Growth is just slowed in terms of at least some of the ways you want to measure it. Now, they may want you to measure it in terms of engagement, but those who look at daily average users or monthly, its not looking as good as they might have hoped. You know what im afraid this is an early 2014 story, david, where you get a small amount being offered. You got a lot of people whose kids are on snap. They want to put it away. They think its going to be the greatest investment. Theyre not going to look at valuation. Stocks going to pop big ala twitter and then meander First Quarter out of the shoot for exactly what you said. Do i think of value . I dont think any of these deals have been of value. None of these deals has truly worked except for the ones that people really dont like. So i got to tell you, david, i think its an accident waiting to happen. We just dont want to be part of the accident. We do want to explain why people would like it though. Hey, guys, jack dorseys watching us right now. He tweets about 60 seconds ago. Hey, cnbc, i didnt sell 125 million worth of stock last year. I gave a third of my stock back to our employee pool. So keep that in mind. So good thing to remember. He did speak at the goldman conference yesterday hey, jack jim, he talked at the goldman conference okay. Go ahead. Go ahead, im sorry. [ overlapping speakers ] i understand that. Im just reading what he just tweeted to cnbc. But he did talk about emphasizing the users they have, which if you will talk to noto later on today, but that would mark a turn acosta used to say want to get twitter in the hands of every person on the planet. Well, i think that they should stop well, i love that theyre paying attention to cnbc. That makes me feel terrific. At the same time what i want is revenue. I mean, you know what, if you give us Revenue Growth, then what happens is this, we say twitters stock is a good stock. If you give us no Revenue Growth or declining Revenue Growth, then we make a determination otherwise. I would love to be about karma per share. That would be fabulous, but were stuck with the darn revenues. Nothing you can do. Yeah. Noto emphasized Machine Learning yesterday, making the tool less mechanical, more smart. Maybe that means changing the chronology of the timeline over time. One question yesterday was other than the hundreds of improvements youve made, whats going to bring user growth higher . Wow. So challenges i know youll discuss with anthony later today. Look, you could argue 2016 was a year where they had to make a lot of changes. What you want to find out is they make a lot of changes and a lot of people left, people like adam bain. I think twitter had a huge hand in twitter, so how could you write them off, but i want to know if youre a young advertisers are you reaching a young demographic with snap or with a device that has the president who may not exactly be who a 21yearold wants to read. So i think in the end it could be huge, but maybe its niche. We got to find out. I cant wait to talk to anthony. All right. Well get cramers mad dash and count down to the opening bell in a few moments. Later on well talk to kate upton making her third appearance on the cover of the s. I. Swim suit issue. Im sure well talk a bunch of other things. And potus on the cover of time today. Take a look at future squawk on the street continues in a moment. On intel . Nofe lcloud. At drirlca ard ha seeit all. Tes g. The future trafc ligh, r. Nofe lcloud. At drirlca ard nesss on the cloudanthe oud run. Wohat the other 2 runs on. cahorn future obusiness i wi the helhe low worlcllin tsrgh,ons. Oreross them whst advce sptaon ialread utand orning, ere futu is daat. Ngovnt helgrowoucos all right. Little less than eight minutes before we get to the opening bell for this thursday. Lets head Cross Country one last time, at least for this week, jim. All right. Cisco of course reports numbers. What do you think . Okay. I think that this was the beginning of cisco as an ecosystem. I think this is Chuck Robbins saying, okay, look, we didnt always have the greatest platform but now were going to be software with service carrying revenue up 31 , it was a very Strong Quarter from the point of view not of what the headlines were which people traded off of that sent the stock down, but from the notion that cisco has gotten away from just being a Hardware Company. It is a Software Company therefore gets a higher valuation. Dont forget 71 billion overseas. Theyre not even talking about that possibility. What theyre talking about is a series of acquisitions that have radically changed the way we view cisco. The analysts have to catch up. Theyre still talking about switching and routing. Meaning what . Well, theyre still talking about a Hardware Company that sells at 13 times earnings. Da david, 13 times earnings, and yet this is a company thats got some parts of its business growing double digit. Parts of the business that are growing double digit will overtake the part that was just plain old cisco. And i think the analysts are just beginning to realize, wow, this is very much like what happened with adobe when adobe switched from an on premise boring model to a software is a Service Cloud model and you suddenly got a gigantic multiple expansion. That will happen with Chuck Robbins. Thats why the stocks headed dramatically higher. Wow. All right. So youre looking for significant multiple expansion as a result of the underlying change in the business . Yes. Exactly. I just want to point out jack dorsey was referring not to what were saying right now, which is unfortunate, but to something that was graph in fast money, i dont know anything about the graph but i

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