Factors into all of that the q4 Consumer Spending looking odd on a day when the nasdaq is posting a new 52week low. Last year, the encouragement was everybody get out and buy your stuff early because supplies are uncertain. This year, it seems like retailers are trying to get people spending early because theyre not sure if theyre going to spend later, even though theres actually oversupply in some cases yeah, and that sort of estimate from adobe shows people are getting out and spending you saw that number higher that doesnt say anything about the uncertainty that were going to face for the rest of the Holiday Season when consumers are still facing higher gas prices, higher home prices, higher rent, higher food prices so will those discounts lure them back in this is certainly something we have been asking for a while now. How is that going to weigh on the bottom line. We just heard from courtney reagan, that was interesting how is the consumer heading into this Holiday Season, yes, still 1. 4 trillion in savings, but that number is actually less than Previous Data implied so perhaps theres signs also going into the Holiday Season of Consumer Credit strain, as you said, the nasdaq at a new 52week low, the nasdaq 100 also going back to cemeseptember of. This is a scenario on tech check for a while now as these experiences take center stage, people shifted away from buying stuff and toward going places, having experiences there was that sort of the pent up covid demand to go places once the summer is over, and people look at the credit card bill, what happens now, adobe is saying that they expect a lot of discounting, a lot of sales to try to fuel spending in the Holiday Season, but even as thats happening, weve got microsoft, weve got meta, facebook, trying to launch premium devices because its that premium consumer thats still spending well see how much that premium consumer can bear. Which leads us back to apple, john, it feels like at the moment, everything goes back to apple, what it does, in the upcoming season, especially earnings as well is going to have a huge effect, not just on the marks but its going to tell us a lot about the global economy. Where should you look for opportunity in this environment, with tech continuing to get slammed and where are the most risks coming from. Tech investor, jeff lewis, going to say, happy thanksgiving to you, as a fellow canadian. Thanks for being with us happy thanksgiving. Thank you. Appreciate it your message here is essentially be careful, theres a bunch of Tech Companies that have gone public over the last few years in a much different Interest Rate environment, and you think a lot of them just cant hack it. I mean, thats the reality. The reality is over the past several years, we had really a sort of nigh, they felt asset prices didnt matter on the way up that led to an insane tech bubble all of these Tech Companies got crazily overvalued so many crap Companies Went out in 2020, 2021. Now were on the other side of that, and most of these companies that went public overs past several years are never even going to be worth their initial offering price there are a few narrow areas where investors look, but in general, were dealing with a n out of control thats my view. Valuations have gone below their ipo prices where do valuations start to look attractive, and isnt what youre describing essentially the tech play book you take Copious Amounts of vc money, get market share and turn profitable are you saying that because the fed is changing and Interest Rate environment is changing, theyrenever going to be able to get there. Only a handful of high Margin Software companies actually become profitable in the private markets and then the hope is eventually they become profitable in the public markets. What we have seen historically, in the public markets, the companies that become most profitable become platforms. Names like apple, microsoft, alphabet, meta ten cent if we look at asia. All of these are megaplatforms, a platform that offers multiple products these tend to be the most profitable companies, and so i think the place to be looking frankly is what is the next generation of platforms, what is the next generation of alphabet, meta these are some of the areas we can find opportunity in general, i think a lot of companies that went out in 2020, 2021, will never get above their ipo price. They are mega platforms. Jeff, hunting for the megaplatforms is one thing, but particularly when it comes to s enterprise, the mega platforms grow buying buying the points that strategically important to build out the platform oracle did that in the cycle google did it. Amazon has certainly done it so isnt there the potential for investors to pinpoint some of these smaller companies, yeah, they might not be profitable, but if they have the right ip and Loyal Customer bases, even if they dont, you know, go the distance on their own, they might get snapped up absolutely. I think theres going to be a wave of consolidation of these point Solution Companies certainly businesses like data dog, which has the potential to be a true megaplatform for observability in the cloud, i would expect them to be inquisitive, give them one of these few mid cap public Tech Companies that has the prospect of being a megaplatform and actually is profitable you know, salesforce might get more inquisitive, you know, i think well see across the board, snowflakes, still somewhat skeptical on that one they might get pretty inquisitive, given they have a lot of emerging competitors in the private markets that may tis pl displace them. Some of the m and a activity will come from public names buying private companies im not sure the company will benefit that much. Im not hyper long, up Point Solutions in the public markets. I dont know that the public is going to be able to capture the majority of the value from consolidation. Interesting what do you do with fin tech youre not big on fintech lending companies, wondering how you feel about crypto given all of the drama there, and theres s and b fintech, theres other types that we dont tend to talk about as much, but that seem a bit more stable. Im very bullish on, theres an argument theres names in the private markets like plaid, like stripe, that are that. Block has the potential to be sort of core fin tech infrastructure, the fact that they changed their name to block from square makes me inherently skeptical of that one. I think maybe they had a few missteps in 2021, and certainly around buy now pay later, which im very skeptical of at this point. They changed their name to block. Beyond that, im generally bullish, where you dont have a lot of lending exposure, and i think a lot of the Energy Around fintech in practice was simply driven by a fallacy around zero Interest Rates, and im stealing a line from the famous short seller a lot of finTech Companies arent Tech Companies. I think a lot of them are going to go to zero unfortunately. Right theyre supposed to be cross selling and growing into bigger platforms but its hard when theres so many of them. Youre also giving investors a warning here, be careful of a narrative mirage rally in q4 kind of what we saw in the summer, a lot of unprofitable tech names ran up. They have held up a little bit better, so what do you think, they get sort of a boost in the coming quarters, perhaps, but that cant last . I mean, look, you can probably make money on that. Doesnt seem very sustainable in terms of a thing to be doing i think theres probably going to be broad, depends what the fad comes out with in the coming weeks. Increasingly looks like theres going to be another, you know, significant rate hike, so there may not be this crazy mirage rally. In general, i think one should be, you know, i dont think were near the bottom here, and one should be very sure. A lot of these names, and then the question is what are the mega platforms, most bullish, microsoft, i think they have an exposure to ai, critical for the future thats not priced in today through their investment in open ai which were leveraging ai, capabilities, the git hub copilot product. Im pretty bullish, some of these mid Cap Companies like data dog that are profitable, that have the potential to become a megaplatform and beyond that, i would stay away, i think the meme stock era is basically over, twitter is the last one thats left, maybe. Its not the first time we have heard enthusiasm from data dog. Thank you so much for being with us jeff lewis. My pleasure. Lets talk chips, the stocks down more than 4 right now, the downside by lam research marvel, kla and plat materials amd is shock the market with the guidance cut and export restrictions on china. Rally names that are tied to making chips lets bring in managing director, matt ramsey for a closer look. M matt, i want to start with amd because lots of people thought the pc market was slowing down, there was inventory stacking up. Pat gelsner said that a few months ago a lot of people surprised by kit amd, its now at levels where it was right before the pandemic hit. What should investors take away from that . Anyway, first of all, john, thank you for having me on i really appreciate it yeah, it was, it was a shock to the system on thursday night not the direction, necessarily as youpoint out, the pc market has been weakening we pulled in a ton of demand, work from home during covid, and then you had some enterprise refresh on the back of that as people started to return to the office, and now a huge part of the market is upgraded, and were now on the backside of that, but i think the magnitude of how quickly this is happening is what really surprised folks i think the amd pc revenue was down 50 from the june quarter to the september quarter, and we knew things were weakening, but that was quite a shock to the system, and i think its going to be felt across the board. We have seen graphics, chips correct instead gpu market mid tier, androids, smartphones have big markets its tough on the back of this as Consumer Spending tightens. On the flip side, these are quality franchises amd has more than 50 growth in the server business, a diversified portfolio, and the last pc market correction, we were in single digit operating margins and with a huge correction in the pc market, they have solid growth on a year over year basis and in the mid20s on an operating margin a much Different Company than in the past that was a tough set of knew we got the other night. Looking broadly at chip narratives, is there a reason to doubt the broader narrative that we have been hearing from qualcomm, et cetera, gaining share and innovativing in the cloud and placing chips there. In automotive, in systems as we switch over to more autonomy and electric vehicles, both qualcomm and marvel, for example, have been building a lot into that. Isnt that more of a threetofive year and beyond perspective, and if were to believe that thats right, are these stocks trading at a significant discount to where they otherwise might be . Ill say this, 85, 90 from our inbound calls from Institutional Investors are in two areas, ai, and electric vehicle, some o. Compaf the com you mentioned there, this is a fivetoten year secular growth in both markets, Companies Like nvidia, a and d, marvel, Monolithic Power Systems strong in the cloud you look at the electric vehicle market, wolf speed, qualcomm you mentioned, the secular bets here are, i mean, are there going to be more chips this all of these devices five years from now than they are today absolutely the way that weve described sentiment right now is very different, however, you have some of the Consumer Spending is seizing up you have worries about Interest Rates and what that might do to the automotive market, and the way i would describe sentiment, when we speak to investors, yes all of these companies are under valued where theyre trading today. You step in first. I dont want to. Im aware we sentimentalize. We have been here before, and china did not retaliate. Do you think this could be different . How could they retaliate its a bit of a pandoras box, to be honest. The United States and western companies have invented most of the Critical Technologies across the Semiconductor Industry from software to libraries to semicap tools and manufacturing ip, and the United States is continuing to gradually restrict those out of china, and i think as a citizen its the right thing to do, but it does create head winds and uncertainty in spaces. These are unique technologies that only a few companies and the best ones in the Semiconductor Market have globally, theyre critical for all types of growth. Both mill militarily, all of these are governed by semiconductors as the u. S. Tightens those restrictions, the friction between the two companies from an economic standpoint continues to go up. All right you know, its Important Information to start the week. Matt ramsay from cohen, thank you, with the nasdaq down more than 1 at this point. And meanwhile a new front in the risk platform, meta, and pay pal. Take a look at our Flagship Fund down 3 today. Thats a new low for 2022. Its down 63 since january. 77 since its all time high back in 2021 tech check is back in two. This is doubling production without doubling headcount. This is connecting all your team with a shared point of view. This is the system you built moving from concept to customer. This is how. Airtable. Oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. News from the future youre going to live through that about 10 more times laughs no stress. I just discovered yieldstreet. They vet investments that dont ride the stock market rollercoaster. [narrator] yieldstreet private market investing. How about a gut check on a name that has had a brutal 2022 along with the rest of growth tech that would be etsy goldman now says that it likes the name at these levels, initiates as buy at a price target of 130. The stock has lost about hatch its value since the start of the year and that upgrade, not helping today, still down 1 1 2 , john. Yeah, the contient moderation back in the spotlight. After a list of prohibited activities to include promoting misinformation saying it could result in a fine from pay pal, up to 2,500 after backlash, the company said it was an error to release that policy, but not before former president david marcus and elon musk had shots at their former company. And kanye west posting antisemiticcontent on instagram and twitter, getting him locked off both platforms. Lets take a look with casey newton pay pal says theyre going to fine people for misinformation, oops, that was misinformation. That wasnt what we intended to say. Thats kind of ridiculous, isnt it yeah, look, this is a really strange one, right, usually by the time language like that shows up in the terms of service, it has been vetted by a lot of people, so to throw its ha hands up and say we have no idea what happened is strange well learn more over the next day or two look, companies around the world are under more pressure for a lot of governments to do more moderation, and to do it in places that you wouldnt expect. People are right to be paying attention to this one. Isnt the bottom line here that when we have an increasing concern over content moderation, that just means more people and lower margins for these companies because as much as theyre spending on technology on ai to fix this, right now its not a software fix. Its a head count fix. Absolutely. And when you think about how many customers pay pal has, the question of how it would even attempt to monitor when and how and where they were spreading misinformation just seems like an enormous logistical problem and as you know would be quite expensive. Theres a lot of good reasons for pay pal not to do this, even going beyond the free speech principles. Pay pal as a company, as a stock, down nearly 70 theres so much going on with this name. Word on the street were getting more interested, it looked almost like a value stock. We have had the cfo leave. We havent heard from dan schulman in a while. Whats going on with leadership at this country . Do you think its sort of due for a change here . You know, i think its a good question pay pal is a venerable tech stock, right its been around for a while, and it might just not be showing the growth that investors are looking for. You know, as a long time user of the app, i cant say its changed much, figured out new ways to get me to use it maybe the leadership of that Company Needs to focus on the product side, more on the terms of service side. Okay. And casey, elon musk welcomes kanye west back to twitter and then kanye west goes in lots of weird and antisemitic directions are we to believe that in elon musks twitter world kanye would not have been suspended . Well, certainly if you believe his previous statements, what elon has said is that for the most part he believes that speech that is not illegal should be allowed to remain on the platform and as abhorrent as the things that kanye posted were, theyre legal to say in the United States i would also note, though, that elon musk hasnt said anything about what kanye tweeted ever since this happened, and so theres still question about what elon would do if he did indeed take over the company. The case in this case, you could easily call this hate speech, and feels like, at least the recent comments that elon musk gave in the interview that maybe he would be willing to take that off the platform what can we take away from this . I think youre right. If elon becomes the owner of twitter, he will gradually make the same