Transcripts For CNBC The Kudlow Report 20130717 : vimarsana.

CNBC The Kudlow Report July 17, 2013

I think, and ive been saying this for years, you know, theres enough moral hazard in the industry. Make no mistake, we will not let the pursuit of International Consistency force us to lower our standards. The United States has demonstrated important Global Leadership in putting in place tough new reforms. I have four goals in my business. Goal number one is not to lose money in a year. Goal number two is to beat the s p meta fees and goal number three is make 10 to 12 of what the market permits and have less volatility in the market. The best thing for an individual investor if they dont own a home is to buy a home, and if they own a home and have some extra cash or extra availability not a bad idea to think about owning a second home. We have a lot to talk about and get your pens and paper out because we have news to break. Tomorrow is the scheduled shareholder vote about dell. Right. Whats going to happen . Im not allowed to tell you. Lets go on to the next one. And a lot of what you just heard moved markets today. Lets see what some of our top traders think about all this. Joining me right now on set is abigail little, equity strategist at the Seaport Group and cnbcs own Michelle Carusocabrera is here. Art hogan of lezard Capital Markets is on the phone trying to get here. Because youre the furthest away, have no idea where you are out there, i want to begin by asking you what you just heard on this summary, what do you think were some of the biggest thoughts that came out of todays conference . I can say im very happy to hear we still continue to believe the Housing Market is strong and continuing to be the right place to go. I think one of the things that weve seen in the recovery and certainly over the last 12 to 18 months has been the housing industry, so i think that was very good to hear. And by the way, larry, welcome back, so glad youre feeling better and what was hard to hear, talking about being tough on regulation, making sure people arent breaking rules, thats very important. When you and i start in the business, i only hope that that continues to be the case so those are the two things i take away from the early part of the conference this morning. Michelle, let me go to you on that. Thats a very important point. Preet bharara, okay and yesterday we heard from mary jo white. These people are regulators. We dont have anything against regulators. I do. Or anything against inside trading. Are they cops . Are they antibusiness cops . Are they antientrepreneurial cops . Are there people who go out on fishing expeditions . Yes. Like steve cohen and come up with absolutely nothing. Legislators will legislate and regular haters will regulate. U. S. Attorneys will prosecute. Thats what they do. You know, Milton Friedman convinced me that Insider Trading should be legal and ive convinced ever since. Every time they waste taxpayer money on a crime i dont think they should be pursuing, i dont think its worth it. Pay attention to other things. Personally i think the s. E. C. Could go away and wed all be safer. Youre talking to the wrong person. Paulson, a guy who made 1 billion on a single transaction saying housing would go down today said if you can buy two homes do it. That was a pretty good thing, as art pointed out. We didnt get into his gold holdings. Lost a lot of money. 2 . Why does everybody point to that all the time, only 2 of his whole portfolio you buy that, that its only 2 of his whole portfolio . I tend to think its probably more. I have no knowledge. Im asking you what you think. You about i actually side with paulson relative to gold. Bearish on gold up until about six weeks ago or so and i think he has it right. If we look at the gold bug thesis, they got the first part right in the last part of the decade thinking that the fed would have to print all kind of money in the face of potential deleveraging and that there would be inflation or fear of inflation. That hasnt materialized, but i think with whats going on at the fed we could have this. Well come back to paulson and his gold position. Meanwhile, cnbcs josh lipton was watching all the key moment from delivering alpha today. Josh, what was moving on the day . Yeah, larry, thats right. Nelson peltz moving markets when he said he has amassed a big stake in dupont the check out this chart. Dupont spiking almost 5 on his comments, closing at a 13year high. Take a listen. I learned literally in the past two hours that you have just amassed and are continuing to amass a very big stake in dupont. Can you comment on that . You asked me in the green room about ten minutes ago. If you say dupont, what comes to mind . You remember i told you . I said paint. All right. One of the biggest and best known activists and investors and one of the final speakers today. Lets go back to josh. Josh, give me another update on this. What did carl icahn say . Lets fit him into this square . Yeah, larry, i cant repeat everything he said because as usual mr. Icahn used some colorful language, but he talked a lot about his bid to buy dell, and then he discussed how he picks the companies he wants to go after. I know it sounds a little silly, but you almost look at companies that are badly managed. Somebody should meet these guys somewhere who run the company and i want to go after that company. All right. Lets go back to our panel and get some commentary. Art hogan, buying dupont. Was that a surprise to you . Nelson peltz buying dupont . You know, that story has been around for a little bit and, you know, its, you know, this was sort of a revelation to anybody it shouldnt be. Its one of those things that weve speculated on, but the the valuation or the point at which hes making this decision is important. Its a turning point. The stock for a certain period of time left it for dead and i want to shift, theres one to shift into, and if you can make changes in management and changes on the board, its the right time to do it. Abigail, lets talk to carl icahn for a second. Id rather stay away from the dell politics. Its all so murky and the rest of it. Did you hear anything, did icahn come up and say anything that hes going to take positions in other companies . You know, unfortunately, larry, i actually missed icahns live interview so im not able to comment on that. I know, i was kind of in transit here. He didnt go ahead. Lobbed insults left and right and knew an insult was coming and he would say, i like the guy and dont get me wrong, but bill ackman sent a note saying he couldnt be here because he had to be at a csx Board Meeting up in canada and icahns response was any railroad hes running i dont want to ride on. He was entertaining. Was there anything constructive coming out of icahn . You know, i think going back to the Ackman Herbalife situation. Listen, when you have a huge short position, you dont tell people because they can squeeze you. It doesnt matter how good your story is so he takes on this huge short position and stands up in a room full of people, bill ackman, and tells everybody about it. I mean, icahn made it sound like it wass pickings to him. Art hogan, what about selling caterpillar . I heard a lot about selling caterpillar today which surprised me because its been such a great company. Would you sell caterpillar . Well, thats a tough call because its really sort of the china demand story, the sort of industrial demand coming out of china and developing over for now, and if thats the case, very explosive. Supposed to come out of super cycles. You want to make a comment . I can add to what art was saying f. Chanos thinks the super cycle commodities is over, thats a real problem with the china story which hurts caterpillar. The other issue, they bought a company in china. They got snookered and he wonders about the Due Diligence of caterpillar and looks at what they did with the accounting on some previous acquisitions and hes concerned, so he stands up and says im shorting caterpillar, i think the commodity super cycle is over and im worried about the accounting, bam, intraday the stock fell 2 in a nanosecond. Caterpillar, on hes worried about cats accounting. Yes, absolutely. They bought that company in china, purchase of a company in china and had to take a half a billion dollar writedown because there was fraud. They think they were victims of fraud. Big names bigging big calls at delivering alpha. Among them one investor i really respect, leon cooperman. What did leon cooperman have to say . Last year at delivering alpha leon cooperman gave ten stock picks, all ten were up, many were big gainers. Cooperman looks to go 10 for 10 again in 2013. He divided his picks into three baskets, quality growth, phoenix from the ashes by which he meant turnarounds and growth with high income situations. All right. Heres his take on the overall market. Take a listen to cooperman. So i wouldnt be surprised personally if the market got into a corrective mode or went sideways for a while. I have a sense that i could be wrong because i think bernanke is getting his way. Everyone is moving out to varying degrees on the risk curve. All right. I totally agree, by the way, well come back to this later in the show. Bernanke is getting his way. You can parse through his language hes going to win, right in the fed is going to tighten up and Interest Rates are going to rise, first loan rates are going to rise so what i got from leon cooperman, what i heard from leon cooperman is beware of the fed. Thats what i heard from leon cooperman. Hmm, i dont know that i necessarily hear that, larry, but what his message was music to my ears because i agree. I think were going sideways into a volatile range and reflects all the uncertainty and the main thing it reflects is the battle between the fed liquidity and whether or not it can put the economy on to its own feet. There is no question im a longtime fed watcher. I started my career at the fed. I will bet my Bottom Dollar that ben bernanke does exactly what he said hes going to do. Now whether it starts in august or september or october i dont know the answer to that. He is going to do it and youve got to factor if i think close to another 100 basis points in the tenyear note. I fully disagree with you. Interest rates could go 2. 5 to 3 . 3. 5 to 4 and leon may be right. It may be a sideways move in the s p. He also said correction, and i think that that could happen. I think correction is out there. And the reason a correction would come, not because Interest Rates are going to rise. I continue to think well see the tenyear yield drop down, and i wouldnt be surprise federal we dont tape they are year. Abigail, youve been saying this for so long, and it hasnt happened. Its a buildup. Basically, if we look at the composition of the rally out of 2009, we have these 30 spurts and then 10 to 20 pieces of consolidation because people dont trust it. Thats why the market keeps going up because nobody trusts the the professionals dont trust the market. Thats re sizely why its going up. When you hear bernanke this is bernankes, what, third pass, fourth pass. He is sending a message. He tried to sugar coat it today and tried to be a little nicer today. He didnt hurt the markets today. They are going to do exactly what they have to do. They got to get out of their position, and its not going to be painfree. Go ahead. Jane mandela who manages the harvard endowment thats 30 billion and her reaction in the wake of bernanke, she said i thought it was ridiculous way back when he spoke about the possibility of tapering. Is he doing it because the economy is doing better, thats a good thing and eventually stocks will move on that. If hes able to do it, because if you listen to the criteria, talks about a very difficult baseline scenario. Hes going to do whatever. That is just fed speak. Can i just tell you something . Well wait and see, larry, we dont know. When he wakes up and calls the driver, the driver shows up immediately. Everybody is staying put. We have lots more important newsmaking highlights from the delivering alpha conference to bat around on this show, including a dire warning from the u. S. Attorney. Dont forget, folks, free market capitalism is the best path to prosperity. Maybe mr. Bharara will read a little bit about it. The kudlow report is coming right back. Tomorrow on squawk box, an eye problem for verizon. A big promise to sell iphones could impact profits. Earnings central squawk box tomorrow 6 00 a. M. Eastern on cnbc. And win fifty thousand dollars. Congratulations you are our one millionth customer. Nobody likes to miss out. Thats why ally treats all their customers the same. Whether youre the first or the millionth. If your bank doesnt think youre special anymore, you need an ally. Ally bank. Your money needs an ally. Welcome back to the kudlow report. Im larry kudlow. Tonight were breaking down the brightest and best idea in finance and dlis from cnbcs delivering alpha conference. Were back with abigail doolittle, Michelle Carusocabrera and art hogan who has now finally made it to the studio. All right. Its a very bullish comment today from john paulson that was earlier. Lets send it over to our pal josh lipton. Go ahead. Hedge Fund Billionaire john paulson became famous when he called the subprime crisis in 2008 and now hes very bullish on housing. Take a listen. Im not sure if housing prices will increase 10 every yore, but its likely over the next five years they will increase by at least 5 to 2 , so theres still a lot of upside. Its not too late to get involved. Housing starts were up 50 from the trial, and thats what created a lot of excitement. In order to meet demand youre going to meet new Home Construction so i think that the rate of new Home Construction will continue to increase, and thats going to benefit the overall economy. Art hogan, not only went that far, he said if you can buy one house, come back and double up and buy a second house. You ready to do that . You want to go partners . Start looking at some property. I think theres a reason that because ive got a lot of winnings coming from abigail. Im sorry. Please continue. Theres a reason that the ford f150 is the number one selling vehicle in the country and housing industry is doing better. Better everywhere, on the edges and Getting Better in the middle of the country, not universal or homogenous, and i think hes right. 5 207 for the next three years would be terrific. Wouldnt get us back to where we were in 2006 but we have to build more houses. Theres going to be a shortage. Shadow inventory is a bit of a fairy tale i think right now, and as you look at the housing industry, i think theres a lot of place, home builders, gotten ahead, secondary and tertiary plays like the lowes and home depot, u. S. Gypsums of the world, there continues to be plays out there and continues in 2014. Paulson, did he complete the cycle and say not only buy the houses and buy the mortgages behind the houses . Mortgagebacked bonds . Im not sure he necessarily did go that far. Again, this is the guy who saw the big hole in the ground when it came to subprime so if theres one area of the market i give him credence to its definitely ive got to think if he thinks that housing is going to go up. You should buy the mortgages as well. Buy the mortgages as well. Still trading 30 sent on the dollar. Because you no longer have that under water problem when you finally borrow. And fannie and freddie are standing behind you. They wont desert that market. They will put up a government reinsurance. You think paulson was right to buy gold . You think he was right, even though hes been clocked so far . Gold has gone from 1,900 an ounce to around 1,200 to 13 trun an hou 1300 an ounce . Its a longterm thesis thats been playing out over the last a years in relation to a massive borrowing bid that deleveraged, the fed putting liquidity into the system and the fear of inflation is really what drove gold up hugely over the last decade until its recently come on tremendously. Mr. Paulson took a big position on driving gold up. He went sort of with all of these advertisements on the radio and on the tv and, you know, the world is going to hell in a handbag and youve got to go out and stop the end of the world by buying gold. He did that and got killed, just like all these Little People that got killed. Whats going on prior to this crash in gold essentially and the huge bull market, massive uncertainty because nobody really knows what the result of all this fed liquidity is going, to similar to the stock market, and so right now investors are saying the inflation, the hoouper inflation, its not here. Aint here. Theres no inflation. A correction along the lines of what myself and even cooperman was talking about. Theres going to be a stock correction. Stock correction will bring down gold to 1,000, boom. 1,000. I disagree. In fact, ben bernanke tightening into a rather weak economy will help bring down gold. The deflation part that bothers me, ive got to be honest with you. Now, let us move on. Earlier at delivering alpha my friend jim cramer had the idea to sit down with u. S. Attorney Preet Bharara and lets turn to josh lipton for more on that one. Bharara is well known on wall street for being very aggressive in going after cases. Most famous is the Insider Trading case against raj raj t rattium. People should have a healthy respect and fear of the law. Thats what causes deterrence. People should be afraid that bad acts they committed in the past will catch up with them. People should be fearful of breaking the law, Michelle Carusocabrera. We were talking about this earlier, but the law is being stretched, particularly the Insider Trading law is being stretched and stretched and stretched and pretty soon reading a Research Report is going to be subject to a grand jury empanelment. Im joking but im not. I get it. You know, Insider Trading, when you prosecute it or just the mere concept of saying i dont want to know something. Think about that. No, dont tell me, i dont want to know. You want information to be as pervasive as possible. The reason the gains are outsized in Insider Trading right now is because so few people have access to information. If everybody could trade on everything they wanted to, gu

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