Look outside the usual suspects in the equity market why Morgan Stanley says Southeast Asia is the place to be. Later in the show. Record Box Office Weekend as barbenheimer exceeds all expectations monday, july 24th, 2023, youre watching Worldwide Exchange right here on cnbc monday morning welcome to Worldwide Exchange. Im frank holland. Thank you for starting your day with us. Lets kick off with the dow riding a 10day win streak thats the longest since 2017. Taking a look at futures in the green across the board the dow would open up 50 points higher as we always say, this is early. This is a busy week for wall street 40 of the dow, 30 of the s p 500 set to report. Were talking names like boeing, meta and microsoft we get a trifecta of Central Bank Decisions with the fed kicking off things wednesday before the ecb and bank of japan. They make their own decisions on rates. One week away from what could be the costliest labor strike in at least 100 years with ups and the teamster negotiators heading back to the bargaining table tomorrow much more on that. The bond market, as always we begin with the benchmark 10year. Its been range bound. 3. 75 to 3. 85 talking yield the inverted yield curve, we continue to watch that were looking at the Energy Market a lot of move there. Were seeing a bit of a pull back when it comes to wti. Up 6 bucks a barrel in the month of july. Fractionally lower brent crude, flat, 81. 09 a barrel natural gas fractionally lower there is one stock to watch, chevron. The Company Offering a rare preview of its results overnight. Second quarter earnings coming in above estimates also announced the retirement of its chief financial officer. Well have much more on chevron coming up this morning including an exclusive one on one with mike wirth coming up at 9 30 a. M. The top stories. Silvana henao is here with those. Good morning. Good monday Morning American Airlines is streaming the offer by 1 billion. The new offer from american would bring the four year offer to around 9 million and match united pay rates, back pay and other benefits in response, americans pilots union says it is indefinitely postponing ratification while it reviews the new terms. Shares of Amc Entertainment are surging ahead of the open after a judge in delaware friday shot down a deal that would have allowed the company to dump more shares onto the market in a statement ceo adam aarons said the company has filed a revised petition for a stock conversion to address issues raised by the court. Aaron also emphasizing that raising capital is critical for the companys survival. And elon musk taking the next step in rebranding twitter. Musk revealing plans to replace the social platforms iconic bird logo with a new yet to be decided logo featuring an x. Announcing twitters rebrand musk wrote on the site that, quote, soon we shall bid adieu to the twitter brand and gradually all the birds. Going to miss the birds. Youre going to like the birds . Its a big shift. Not sure what direction hes going. Were going to find out. We sure will. Back on wall street, investors gearing up for the busiest earnings season. More than 150 companies and 12 dow components set to report talking microsoft, alphabet, meta, cocacola, mcdonalds and exxon mobil. The scorecard with eps coming in 8 lower than the same quarter a year ago revenue dipping almost 1 compared to last year. At the same time revenue and earnings are beating joining us to discuss is scott ladner thanks for being here. Thanks, frank good morning. We have a fed decision. A very busy earnings season. How do you see both of those shaping this week for the markets . Yeah. I mean, i think you set it up really nicely. This is pretty much the biggest week of the month and biggest week of the quarter as we come into it. The fed is most likely going to hike and most likely done. I think the hike is probably the least important part of that than the being done part its potentially very important. It signals we have rates that combined with what were going to get in earnings this week especially from as you mentioned the cap names, if we have seen the peak in rates, we have to continue strong earnings out of the megacap tech names, that could provide us the next play. Scott, you said were done with so much certainty the fed officials saying theres going to be one more hike. Not definite it will be in july. Why are you so confident this will be the last hike . Is that whats powering this rally, the idea that the fed is done yeah. That is definitely a big part of it, frank. We cant say with certainty the fed is going to be done. Its not in the feds best interest to take away optionality. What well probably see is it come through data. Continued strong data in the u. S. And continued disinflationary data in the u. S. Most importantly is probably going to guide the fed to say, listen, weve done a lot we can probably hang out for a little bit and let it do its work. You seem to have a lot of confidence is recession off the table are you still telling clients to prepare their portfolios for a rece recession . We think recession is certainly off the table for the next 12 months you can never say its off the table. Outside of something some sort ofxternality, you can add into equities. Start dipping your toe into the cyclical small cap areas as the market becomes comfortable the recession is nowhere in sight. Also i know youre looking at Consumer Staples theyve been underperforming whats your take on Consumer Staples with the idea we are not going to see a recession staples are a place you want to be in when you want to hide out. Staples are not something favored for a little while they are very expensive. Very popular place to hide out the combination of very expensive multiple, plus some margin pressure coming from the fact theyre losing Pricing Power. As inflation comes down, theyre losing Pricing Power that is not a rosie one. Scotlandman, thank you for being here. The one word investors have to know today. First, a look at the state of freight. How should investors be preparing . Plus, china shoring up its economy but the street is not impressed. Adidas gets a surpriseee yzy windfall wo Worldwide Exchange. Stay with us welcome to a new era of flight. What if we live to 100. I dont want to outlive our money. I keep eating all these chia seeds. I could live to be 100. We work with empower, even if we do live to 100 we dont have to worry. Eh, not worried. Take control of your financial future to empower whats next. [announcer] tens of thousands of customers wrote take control of your financial future about carvana being smooth in their five star reviews, including teri. To be honest, i thought it was almost too smooth but carvana was super transparent from beginning to end, car details, financing, every step and there were no surprises. Well, my Monthly Payment did come out lower than expected. Then i got to pick up my mustang at the vending machine and it was so fun and exciting i did a little dance. teri laughs trust me, financing my car with carvana was super smooth. [announcer] finance your next car with carvana today. soft whistling welcome back to Worldwide Exchange. We have green arrows we have jomana versace in the london newsroom. Good morning good morning frank. Pmi numbers. Disappointing on all metrics in the u. K. The ftse 100 is dipping down five basis points pmi manufacturing number back where it was at the beginning of the pandemic similar story as well on the xetra dax. In germany the pmi now is back in contractionary territory. So all of this data very key going into the ecb on thursday ibex also in focus with the spanish general elections with an inclusive result. In terms of corporates, one name in the uk that is vodafone. Its up 4. 43 . So a good reaction so far. The other name were watching very closely is the likes of ryan air that airline reported 662 Million Euros in profit for the first three months and the Irish Airline did lower their 2023 passenger growth projection due to delays in jet delivery from boeing its going to pull down the entire sector. All airlines are trading under the flat line. Jomana, thank you very much jomana versace live in london. We are just one week away from a potential strike by 340,000 teamster workers at ups which could be, according to research from adp, the costliest labor strike the current estimate more than 7 billion in the first ten days of the strike. Ups delivers roughly 22 million packages per day and only a fraction can be delivered by rivals, fed ex, amazon and the u. S. Post office the majority of that impact, 4 billion expected to be felt by ups customers like amazon, nike and macys the biggest impact will be the Small Businesses the strike will close Small Businesses, household workers, sole practitioners and online retailers. Ups trains its nonunion workers to keep operations going if there is a strike. The ups teamsters contract expires one week from today on july 31st with them returning to the negotiating table on tuesday. For investors this comes as dow transport rises more than 20 pergs percent. Lets start off with how do you see the odds what do you think the chances shall of an actual strike . Does that give us an insight into the ups negotiations as sfwhel. The yellow situation is different than ups yellow has been a Zombie Company for years. Ups is the largest employer of teamsters, tremendously successful relationship. Teamsters and ups need each other moving forward. Where would you put the odds of a strike . Is it 5050 . A week to go theyre coming back to the negotiating table today. Ups is willing to raise pay. I think the odds of a strike are lower than 50 for sure. What you have to be cognizant of is parttime wages theyve agreed on Everything Else except for discerning pay froe gregs for parttime wages the fulltime teamster drivers want to go ahead and take off work and put themselves at risk for the parttime drivers and while the brotherhood and the Union Leadership is very strong, we just dont think its likely that fulltime drivers are going to strike over a parttime issue. Again, they return to the negotiating table tomorrow in the meantime, for investors, how should investors view this situation and the possible disruption is this going to create a meaningful shift in the transports in the short term and long term . To the extent there is a strike at ups, it would be a significant onetime impact. The stocks will react negatively it should be shortterm in nature the yellow threat of potential bankruptcy weve seen the ltl freight sector, which fed ex is a member, the move up in june youre seeing on the chart is largely as a result of concerns that that ltl organization at yellow, which is the largest market share company, is going to go out of business, is going to go into some type of restructuring and that will put a lot of freight in play for a lot of ltl carriers. Fed ex is the biggest. You just listed some names in the ltl space. Ltl is trucking where you Companies Put different loads into the same truck as opposed to just purchasing a load, filling up a whole truck on its own. When were talking about ltl, what are some topics that might benefit from a yellow disruption but possibly from a disruption at ups you get both of those things in a stock like fed ex the ltl at yellow is different than asia. They have a lot of national ltl freight. Putting pallets that are not enough to fill up a full tractortrailer rig into a network. That National Network that yellow runs very Long Distance freight, that matches up very well with the fed ex service footprint. Theyll pick up a lot of business from the Business Continuity risk at yellow. Coming full circle, what does this mean for ps underperforming were how does this disruption impact the stock for the rest of the year i think the next nearest catalyst is whether we get to the table. We are at the 11th hour. My guess is we will come to a negotiating agreement and ups will claw back some of the relative underperformance since the 1q earnings on the news we are not going into a strike. Obviously well have to sort through what the economic implications are of the new teamster contract. We dont think its going to be destabilizing to ups economics we think there is enough supply demand and the pricing will remain pretty robust for the small package carriers youll see ups claw back. A lot to watch. Obviously keep an eye on negotiations david, good to see you. Good to see you, frank. We continue our coverage of the potential strike impact. We are talking to executive Vice President of pitney bowes gregg zegras coming up on the show, thinking outside the box looking at areas outside of traditional equities why rgmoan stanley says Southeast Asia is now the place to be. Across the globe, industries are transforming and businesses need to navigate the changing landscape to stay ahead. When you partner with barclays, every change leads to a bold possibility. You have the vision. We have the insights, Financial Solutions and Global Perspectives to help you make it real. Barclays corporate and Investment Bank powering possible. Welcome back to Worldwide Exchange. Nbcs Jessica Leighton is in new york with the very latest. Good morning. Reporter frank, good morning. Hope youre having a great start to your week political turmoil in israel. Hundreds of thousands of protesters voted on jerusalem on a judicial overhaul that would allow Prime MinisterBenjamin Netanyahu to overrule Supreme Court decisions. Hundreds of Israeli Air Force reservists say they will not show up for duty netanyahu is insisting on todays vote despite his own Health Struggles hes been admitted to the hospital and he announced he had a pacemaker put in the brutal heat wave thousands of tourists were forced to evacuate on the island of rhodes. Crews working around the clock to try to contain this disaster. And back here at home, another shot at a massive jackpot. The Mega Millions prize climbing to 820 million after nobody hit the jackpot on friday. It is the fifth largest prize in the games history and you still have a lot of time to get your ticket, frank. The next drawing is tomorrow night at 11 p. M. Eastern back to you. I definitely need to get my ticket do you have a pool over there at 30 rock . I want to jump into different pools. I need as much exposure. Were all part of the nbc family you can come over here for free. Jessica, thank you very much. Going back to our special this week, the barbenheimer effect this thing is real giving the Summer Box OfficeMovie Theaters a major boost hauling in 155 million over the weekend. According to com score thats the biggest debut topping mario brothers. It brought in 182 million internationally. The total 337 million. Universal picture said oppenheimer middle 0. 5 million here and 35 million internationally. Lets talk about this with a lycia reese with Wedbush Securities thanks for being here. Good morning. Thanks for having me. Did you go see the barbie movie. I saw both. Did you see them as a double feature . No. Friday to see barbie and oppenheimer. Its long. Im looking at the stocks cinemark up 1 amc has different news its an outlier. Is this a big turn around for the movie business is this going to give investors confidence the Movie Theater business is back yeah, i think it does its one of the biggest Box Office Weekends weve seen, certainly the biggest post pandemic being able to show people will go to the movies if the content is there thats really encouraging to a lot of investors who think movie going is dying. So the fact there wasnt a super hero anywhere involved in this huge Box Office Weekend, what does that say about the future of the movie business because a lot of us were thinking for a while that blockbusters had to be tied to the i. P. Of a comic book or some other big franchise. We have barbie its not a comic book. Not the same level of i. P. Cinemacon which we go to every year, we get a glimpse of whats coming up over the next year id say theres a fair bit of fare but less. A lot more new i. P. That we found really interesting you know, i think studios are really getting that people want fresh i. P. They really want new titles and i think especially this weekend we saw a real shift and i think a lot of investors might be interested and people are actually willing to go see, you know, real thinking, thoughtful pieces like oppenheimer and there was a big period where it was escapism, escapism, escapism getting out to see fantasy and something getting this level of box office on top of barbie, thats compelling. I think studios are going to be hearing that loud and clear. It doesnt hit the box office for another two years but i think well see a big shift. Youre mentioning the studios. We have a strike in hollywood. How does that impact your longterm thesis and do you have a topic . Yeah. In near term theres a risk if this goes on beyond labor day, theres a risk that the actors wont be able to participate the rest of this quarter, its okay its not crucial no big name titles that require the actors to participate, but once we get into october ahead of november releases, it gets really