Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20121129 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange November 29, 2012

His financial stakt reporbility. And the search is on on for the winners of the pow ball ticket as two tickets matched all the numbers in the 580 million drawing. Were getting a lot of green on the heat map and not a lot of red. Sur enough, the stoxx 600 is up 0. 8 . We can take a look in at the bourses and almost a mirror image of yesterday. Ibex 35 adding 1. 6 , cac 40 up more than 1 . The dax adding 0. 8 . And we just got german unemployment figures. Plus the foot city 100 up 0. 8 this morning. So pretty much a strong session across the board. Again, following what we saw in the u. S. Yesterday. Take a look at the bond wall here of course we have an italian auction coming up later and italys ten year, below 4. 5 this morning. So price rising. That yield falling. Spain also benefiting. That yield down to 5. 2 . Bunds creeping back up to 1. 4 level. Lets key in on currency. The aussie dollar despite the broader riskon attitude a weaker. Dollaryen moving higher 82. 13. And the nikkei is adding to its string of gains throughout the month. Eurodollar rebounding off yesterdays trading session to add 0. 1 . Lets check in on how the asia trading session went overnight and for more, Deidre Wong Morris joins us from singapore. Well, it was a very good session over here, as well. Headline driven. But a good session on the back of that optimism for fiscal cliff talk. All except this glaring spot of red. Shanghai composite finishing lower for yet another session. It keeps falling further and further. Doesnt seem that there is anything that policymakers or investors can do to lift sentiment in this market. Different story in the hang seng, rebounding up about 1 . So a tale of two very different markets. Hang seng up nearly 20 percent year to date. If youre playing china in both markets, very, very different views. The kospi is up 1. 2 . Asx 200 up 0. 7 . Major miners in focus. Bhp and ceo coming out with comments that well talk about later. We have the japanese market continuing their rally. Its been quite the rally over the last few week. Topex you might want to watch. Goldman sachs years target up by some 8 . There is still up side of about 20 . You could see some gains if they are correct. But the knee he kay 225 recouping losses from yesterday to continue on that rally. Up 1 . Sharp was in focus today on talks that they may be signing some investment deals with dell and other companies. Up about 3 . So nice pop there. Also the japanese markets very much trading on politics. Opposition leader expected to be elected as the next Prime Minister on december 16th, i believe, and he has been very aggressively talking about monetary easing. So that has really driven down the yen against the u. S. Dollar. So the dollar as you mentioned is getting against the yen as we speak. That sea of green only highlighting the underperformance of the shanghai composi composite. For now italy is on track to meet its funding target for 2012 with the sale of 5 and tenyear debt today. The treasury is scheduled to auction up to 6 billion euros and those results will be out at just after 11 Central European time. The key vote tomorrow in greece. Called to approve the latest tranche of aid for athens. Silvia is in berlin ahead of that vote. We werent sure whether it could happen as isnt as today, but it looks like tomorrow. Yes, exactly. If anybody is wondering why im there a day early, its because we were really sort of touch and go because actually the debate and stro vote was scheduled for today, but the opposition got their heck he wi heckles up and said wheres the rush, gives us time to study the papers. And i suppose they have a point considering the fact that i think it took them a year and a half to not decide whether seeshl securi Social Security recipients should get 50 more euros a month. If they hand out the 40 billion, maybe they should debate that a little longer. And the other argument of course they had was everything that were signing up for now in terms of the greek deal things on the greek buy back program which is supposedly supposed to be finished before the eu summit on december the 13th. So before that, none of what they decide now is relevant except on paper anyway. But as you said, they finally agreed after the Budget Committee and the Capital Markets committee and the finance committee met yesterday and were briefed on all these measures and had a debate about all these measures. They decided to go ahead with the vote tomorrow. We should be done more or less by lunchtime. And then there will be a great sigh of relief at least for merkel and schaeuble that they can go into the next euro group and ecofin and the summit with a decision under their belt. But no denying the fact that the air is getting thinner. The opposition is getting a little bit more exasperated by the salami tactics. Even as youre discussing this, want to bring the news that the spd leadership has advised the party to vote yes on greek aid. Any quick thoughts on that . The thing is they dont have any problems with the greek aid. Thats the curious thing about it for merkel. They have problems with being rushed. They say this is not a democratic process. There are very complicated measures that we have to look at. By yesterday morning, they didnt even have a translated version of the agreement that had been hacked out in brussels after several allnight meetings, i might add. And its a very complicated deal. You have to give us a chance to look and make up our own mind. Other than that the opposition is behind helping out greece. But they want a bit more openness and a bit more maybe truth from the government. Silvia, thanks for your thoughts on all of that. If more year joined by julian. Welcome. Youre out with a view on your next year that doesnt sound too rosy. You talk about the economy contracting half a percent. Challenges in the core countries. So walk us through how important the german vote is tomorrow and whether greece gets its aid as to the more broad brooutlook. The outlook is not improving. Its deteriorating for the eurozone. Economic fundamentals are getting worse particularly in the countries of germany and france. These are the countries we revise down the most. In the periphery, there are signs that the recession is stabilizing. Were below the consensus. Typical view is that the economy will broadly stagnate next year, we think it will continue to shrink and the ecb will continue to cap Interest Rates and perhaps at shall point the Bond Buying Program will be in spain. And so when we talk about the sequence of events that markets are looking for the next couple of months, the main one still seems to be when spain asks for aid. Pushed into the First Quarter of next year now in your view . I think there are two windows of opportunities really. The first one stretches in to the first few months of next year. You can call it the First Quarter as an example. After that, the window will close. It will be more difficult to ask for help. It that window might reopen, but only after the electionowar year end. So there are two windows. One market pressure doesnt seem to be there and the other is political pressure. We were just showing the chart of the ten year in spain. 5. 2 . Can it continue without spain asking for aid in if im spanish minister, im saying why should i sign myself up for further austerity measures when conditions are moving in my favor. Thats an important point. It is true that the mere existence of this wih back stop safety net have made movements less volatile. There will be ups and downs, but it appears to be smoother. And i wonder, too, about germanys response to all of this. Weve seen the intransigence when it comes to the Banking Union, mutualizing debt. How much have those concerns been allayed without actually having to trigger the brprogram . Is it more of an issue next year if and when countries need help from the eurozone institutions . Good this wil this wille a long process anyway. It will be important next year. If you look at our alter in a sif a n alt alternative scenarios, progress toward Banking Union not to mention will fiscal union, if we have a u turn, that will bring fresh down side risks. Is the biggest risk factor the german elections, evolution of growth in france, Something Else . Right now in the near term, the biggest risk is the slow down in core europe. More broadly really is policy and politics both when it comes to the longer term response and the near term response. Should it happen, it will introduce fresh down side risk. And perhaps a buying opportunity. But we wont get into that just now. Thanks very much no yofor your this morning. Starbucks has introduced its priciest brew yet. And youll need to shell out 7 for a 16 ounce cup of the new limited edition companihe haedi. Its made from a rare hard to agree varie grow variety and makes us ask the question whether you would pay 7 for a cup of skroe. And with the Exchange Rate over here, probably have. Whats the most in fact youd spend on your Morning Coffee . Let us know. Worldwide cnbc. Com, cnbcwex. Stick around because coming up, mervyn king is out with the uks Financial Stability report and rumors are swirling about new Capital Requirements for banks. Tim geithner will head to capitol hill today to meet with congressional leaders on, yes, the fiscal cliff. Geithners president lead negotiator in the budget talks. Hell meet first with harry reid at 10 00 a. M. And then with House Republicans including speaker john boehner, eric cantor and paul ryan. Geithner will lunch with Mitch Mcconnell and then House Minority leader nancy pelosi. President obama is signaling hes flexible on on where tax rates should go for the wealthiest americans. A return to the clinton era tax rates would have households pay between 36 to 39 . The president met with a group of 14 ceos wednesday afternoon. They offered support for resolving the if i can crisis with a proposal for higher taxes for those who make more than a quarter Million Dollars a year. Sdl bo both sides have acknowledged that there will be revenue concessions and sbilgtment cent concessio concessions. Im not a master of the political art here, but i would say if you have these point of views in a business context as close as they are, i would say a deal would be in reach. Ford chairman bill ford junior agrees with blankfein saying hes confident the Obama Administration can reach a deal with congress to avoid the fiscal cliff. But speaking with reporters in bangkok, he says the automaker is prepared for any outcome. Cnbc has learned the completion of the socalled volcker rule is being delayed until the end of the First Quarter of next year instead of the end of this year. The rule which is named for paul volcker bans banks from proprietary trading. But its proven difficult for u. S. Regulators to define and high volume of feedback has led to push back, repeated push back, of that deadline. Mervyn king will release Financial Stability report today. Theres been speculation in the report that king will raise Capital Requirements for banks and introduce new banking regulations. For our uk viewers, well bring you live coverage of the bank of englands report in just over an hour. For thousannow, Chris Wheeler j. What is your sense of what he could say . If we look at the uk banks, perhaps lloyd and those that have the biggest issues despite all the work, i think theyre on a glide path to get to where they need to for ring fencing. But the question is whether they get there quick enough. Given the risks that still exist in the bargain eet, there may be what kind of tool is the Financial Stability report in the first place . Is this an effort to just express what he thinks is in the best interests for banks . Its a bit unusual because it would be the equivalent i think in the u. S. Of hearing in ben bernanke setting capital ratios. Yeah, i think you hit the thal on the head there. This is an opinion being put out into the market and then its clearly up to the regulator to make a decision as to whether they want to put increased pressure on the banks. But this is causing some confusion because the banks themselves cant answer the question, certainly cant tell the market ket what they think they need to do because that theres not been a clear delineation exactly what they have to get to when. And its adding much more uncertainty. And weve heard from one of the bank of england governors who has been vocal about his displeasure with the way the rules are revolving. Is there tension within the bank of england as to the best way to move forward and as we see mark carney who has been an advocate of the process take over, what is that likely to imply for these banks . The problem here is that every time there is somebody who puts their hand up and says that doesnt cover all the risks. The big art is the calculation of assets but still quite arrest kin. And the view is why dont we just look at a very simple equity to assets ratio and then the big debate is u. S. Gap versus what do you think about that idea of just looking at that more sim police it tick benchmark . Im delighted because when i started in the banking in the 80s, thats what we did. But i think its one of a number of measures. Credit we saw the fed talking about european banks having to increase not just their capital, but the leverage or include the leverage position of their businesses in the United States. And i think increasingly were looking at if you want a basket of measures, to measure the str strength of the bank. How much can we trust that anyone can decide what the rate level is for a variety of gauges . I have one client who tells me we should do away with all the regulation and get back to the regulator sitting next to the bank and looking at exactly what they require. The problem with that is then the market cant say are we in good capital position, bad capital position. But if we go back to regulation 30 years ago, it was much more like that. Much more the regulators saying we have our Banking System under control because were sure we understand the risks and what they need to have to cushion themselves against those risks. We need to have a lot more as to what that is in terms of ratios. We showed earlier that uk banks are doing quite well in the session today. Looking forward to 2013, how well positioned are they and is a sector they want exposure to. So many things coming out of left field. The new strategy on the 12th of february. Going through asset sales. And obviously for the asian banks, a lot of talk about the slowdown in asia. But i think if you look at retail banking, were seeing some encouraging signs around the mortgage demand thats out there, encouraging signs about the level of loan quality. And i think also about funding costs for the banks because i think having run very hard to include their fund, it was becoming quite an expensive issue for those banks. Now were seeing retail funding costs flip back a little bit. All of that a will benefit margins. So the the Third Quarter could be encouraging in terms of the basic uk business. Unfortunately all the other noise around it will weve seen financials so deeply discounted. Some of the concerns as youve mentioned remain cost of capital, also return on equity going forward. The last four years, i seem to have left my life banging my head against the wall about capital rules. I use Goldman Sachs as an example. Earning over 30 in 2006, now trading at less than one times book because its only earning a short 10 . So thats the kind of problems banks are facing in the difficult markets. And one reason why even if there are stricter Capital Requirements, a hurdle for banks, but the more broadly the question earnings power. So hard to see them getting over that hurdle. And we dont know what the earning power of banks are thousand because we have to think about what was going on precrisis not just in the Investment Banking world, but in the corporate and retail world. People are borrowing more money, leveraging up more. To what extent will they go back to that. Will credit card balancing bulge again. So not just the fact that we wont have a lot of cdls out there. It goes much deeper. Thanks for your time this morning. Appreciate it. And again, that you news there mervyn king will be out in just over an hours time. In corporate news, Standard Chartered is reportedly close with a settlement over dealings with iranian clients that may have violated u. S. Sanctions. The bank will pay a fine of about 300 million to end probes by the justice department, fed treasury and manhattan district attorneys office. Back in august, Standard Chartered pay 340 million to settle charges by new york states top financial regulator that said the bank acted as a quote rogue institution. Shares there responding positively joining the rally up about 1. 7 in the session today. The worlds biggest mining giants are in cost control mode. Rio tinto will plan to save 5 billion in operating costs. Rio says its still pressured by weak Commodity Prices and the high australian dollar. The firm is unlikely to boost difference tend because it may restrict growth. A buyer for steel works in northeast france has been found. It added the government was prepared to move ahead with a temporary state takeover if the deal was out of reach. Yesterday we spoke with frances finance minister and asked him for his take on the dispute. Due to commitments taken a few years ago not being fulfilled right now and this is why we are facing a specific situation and maybe also specific solutions. We want your thoughts on this. Worldwide cnbc. Com. Were also hearing from those of who you have no problem paying 7 for a cup of coffee. So keep those thoughts coming, too too. Still ahead as investors count down to th

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