Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20121221 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange December 21, 2012

House as House Speaker John Boehners plan fails with just ten days until the fiscal cliff deadline. Markets trading lower on that news. Arcelar and skanska trading down. The mayan calendar counts down to that cataclysmic conclusion. Announcer youre watching worldwide exchange, bringing you Business News from around the globe. Lets take a look at how markets are trading. Stoxx europe 600 is down about. 6 this morning, this after word that House Speaker John Boehners plan b didnt come to a vote last night. He couldnt get them in place apparently. Well have plenty more on the impact of that on the program. Not much here, we see decliners well outpacing advancers. The ftse mib in italy down. 6 . The ibex down. 4 . The dax selling off. 5 lower than yesterday. Same goes for the ft. If it is, down. 8 . 5909. How quickly weve gone from talking about 6,000 to talking about 5,900. The german bund rallying. Same goes for the uk. Were seeing a rotation into safety, out of risk and out of spain and italy. About 4. 5 for italy. Thin trading in markets is exacerbating the move that were seeing as we approach the year. Today, the austy dollar is weaker against the u. S. Dollar by about. 4 . Proxy there for Global Growth prospects. The dollar yen is weaker by about. 25 . This as markets digest the news out of the boj and gauge whether theyll be successful in boosting inflation ultimately. The euro dollar, 1. 3221. So for trading in asia, just how japan, china and the rest have been affected by fiscal cliff news, diedra morris is join onning us with plenty more. Hi. Hey, kelly. It was a bit of a rude awaking. A lot of these indexes were on their way to gains and then we had the fiscal cliff setback. We had news that John Boehners plan b failed. This all turned red and this is where we ended. The nikkei 225 coming back from that huge rally that we have seen over the last five weeks shedding 1 . The exporters hurt here because the dollar yen was lower. It has regained some ground in the last few hours or so. The kospi shedding about 1 . Blame politicians in the u. S. And blame heavyweight samsung. This accounts for some 20 of market value on the kospi index. Down 4 . That hurt the broader markets. This is, of course, because eu regulators are poised to excuse samsung of breaking competition rules and filing competition patent lawsuits against samsung. Greater chinese markets, shanghai more isolated from global happenings and fiscal cliff negotiations. Really, its been a lot of general volatility here. Ive been talking about this all week and the index hasnt moved much. We did see a large run up since the beginning of december, some 9 . However, i have my eye on the yeartodate losses. They are Still Holding around 2 . And if the shanghai comp and this year with loss, its a threeyear bear market and eats a lack of trust. The retailers have yet to buy into this market once again because trust is so low. There are, keep in mind, 72 million retail investors. Those are the cab driver retail investo investors. Fiscal cliff worries certainly played into the market here. Down. 7 . The culprit was mainland banks. They were weak on both exchanges. So the likes of icbc bank of china, ccb ag bank were all weak on liquidity concerns. The sensex in india down. 8 . Kelly, keep in mind, that market is up nearly 25 yeartodate. Back to you. Okay. Diedra, great information there. And as the clock ticks down to the end of the world, well cross live to the sleepy french town where aliens are waiting to protect a few human souls. And find out how city index has taken a group of individuals with no Financial Market experience and turned them into successful traders. Well hear from the winner of this years competition who is a trainee taxi driver. Well hear from foreign Central European bank chief jeanclaude trichet. He spoke with stefan pedrazzi about whether he believes there are any reasons to be optimistic about greece. And whether volatility triggered by uncertainty over the fiscal cliff should be hear to stay. The fiscal cliff seems to be here to stay, at least. House Speaker John Boehner has scrapped the deal on plan b. Boehner conceded last night he didnt have enough support from republicans to pass the bill which would raise taxes on households making more than 1 is million a year. The house is now in recess until the end of the year. The white house says the president s main priority now is to ensure taxes goes go up for 98 of americans and 97 of small businesses. For more on the tax, were joined. Talk about the cliff. You wake up to the news this morning. What do you make of it . What do you do now . I guess whats happening is there is more idealogical battling going on in the Republican Party than maybe was obvious a little while ago. Our baseline view is they will strike a deal either down to the wire or early next year. Growth next year will be quite weak. It has to be said that there is a tail risk that is substantial. Maybe 25 , a little more than that. The idealogical battle about the future shape of the country really does drive us over part of the cliff, takes us toward the debt ceiling. Thats the other piece of this that i think is being overlooked. But if you think back to what happened last summer, not only does it help us, but part of the reason why the sequestration that were facing is part of this issue is because of the debt ceiling. Its almost like the dog chasing its tail. And the debt ceiling issue hasnt gotten the focus this time of year that it really should. Ultimately, you know, theres not going to be a default, right . That would almost be treasonist. You cant question the validity of the public debt. So the risk is you go up to the you know, you go over the fiscal cliff, have this big debate and then you have to start shutting down parts of federal spending in order to keep the debt constant. Then, if we really have that, that is a severe double dip situation and the entire planet would suffer because the u. S. Is the Worlds Largest importer, right . I think whats at stake here is one wing of the Republican Party, called the tea party, is digging in its heels because it doesnt want a middle class entitlement kind of society like we have here in western europe. It was a minimalist safety net, right . And both the right, the center right, george w. Bush and the left, if you want to call it that, the center left in the United States, obama has given away more middle class entitlements, the unfunded medicare stuff, things like that. Its partly about the fiscal cliff. Its more about what you guys call the fiscal bliss. Were hoping some deal can be struck. It shouldnt be overlooked that what is happening is what is happening in the National Conversation about just how much ground americans want to give. You know, how much they want a model so much of what youre talking about in europe. These issues cant be raised separate from talking about, for example, the deficit, separate from talking about the economy because they really all do come together. Right. And i think that was understood in constructing the constraints in the fiscal cliff because everybody has to give up something. If we go over the cliff, right . So theres across the board sequestration in defense and all kind of things the right doesnt want, either. Furthermore, the revenue side is quite heavy in the fiscal cliff. Thats why we think in the end theyre going to reach a deal, right . Republicans do have quite a lot to lose in the shortterm. Theyre not going to starve the beast, theyre going to beat it. Feed the beast. Arnab is with us. Today is the december 21st, it marks the conclusion of the 500 year long mayan calendar. But whether were face ago spiritual change or a catastrophic event depends on who you listen to. Theres been pan ek buying of candles in china and canned goods in the u. S. A mountain n peer niece, rumors have spread aliens will rescue any human gathered there because of the upside down mountain that exists in this town. They cant quite explain it. Now we can take a look at just how long we have until the end of the year with our end of the world countdown clock. Apparently, arnab, this is extremely important information. Apparently the world is going to end at 111 111 london time. That dpifs us just enough time to finish worldwide exchange. I wont have to cancel my lunch. What do you want the new world to look like after it all ends . Get in touch with us here, email us, worldwide cnbc. Com. Tweet us. Joe gill has decided not to slap a downgrade on the countrys growth for the first time in four months. Japan looks set to recover from its fourth remember session in 12 years on a pick up in industrial demand. Still, it did warn that japans economic environment remains week. The bank of japan also says Foreign Ownership of Government Bonds has risen to a record high at the end of september. This is important. The data suggests japan is growing more reliance on overseas investors to fund the nations massive debt. Reuters is reporting that heavy demand from japanese investors has helped increase Foreign Holding of polish sovereign bonds. Asian investors are apparently attracted to polands better returns and less risky economy. For more on this, were joined by rajig beswos. I just want to start here on this point about japanese investors buying polish debt. You can understand why a japanese investor is looking for yields. Is there any reason to be concerned about their growing link through ties, i should say, the exposure to whats happening in a country like poland . I think weve seen for over a decade now that japanese investors are looking to oversea sovereign debt and other forms of investment abroad including money market funds and country thats look attractive. At the moment, poland still looks very attractive in the eu landscape. Its one of the more strongly growing economies and in rel ofly good shape. So i think that makes sense in terms of overall landscape if youre looking for yield. And thats the problem that japanese investors confront is they have no yield at home and the savers, the pensioners and so on are looking for return elsewhere. A popular option historically has been australian and new zealand money market and debt, as well. Well, perhaps the broader point, too, is that youve got this long stand iing portion of japanese debt held internally. But if more japanese investors are putting their money overseas and if more overseas investors are Holding Japanese des, that is potentially important. I think japan at the moment, its very worrying the direction that theyre heading in terms of their rising government debt. Its already at very high levels. Jgb yields are very low and thats been able to fund that for some years now. But as you rightly point out, the ability of domestic investors to fund that debt is going to diminish overtime as the population in japan ages and as theyir funding requirements increase. And the latest negative turn in events on the debt score is that the likelihood of the doubling of the consumption tax in japan which had been agreed in principal now looks increasingly unlikely now that the ldp has won and they had always been skeptical about this in any case. And given that japan is now in recession, the likelihood of not going through as scheduled is becoming thats a great point. And thats going to increase the fiscal debt. And people were looking for a spur in domestic spending because this tax hike was coming. If thats not going to happen, we shouldnt expect that boost. Where does that leave actually the outlook for growth here . I think there will have to be some near term fiscal growth next year. Japan is heading towards a debt crisis unless it takes some remedial action within the next two or three years. Its not imminent because its domestically funded still to a large extent. But i think that, you know, youre heading towards a crisis in japan on the debt story unless some actions are taken. And unless it looks like theyll take the key step necessary which is doubling the consumption tax rate, if that doesnt happen as scheduled and theyre heading towards great problems on their fiscal deficit and on their government debt. I just want to get a quick thought here from arnab. Japan is a high level equilibrium trap. Theyre subtracking from it because theyre an exporter and a surplus country. Its gone a little bit the other way with the shutdown of nuclear energy. I totally agree, its a completely unsustainable trajectory. The real issue is whether fiscal pump can change the structural factors like demographics and the fact that women dont work, dont have children, more seriously, is money and Government Bonds really going to change that force which is promoting deflation and declining nominal gdp . Its not obvious that it will work. Rajib, last word . I think what japan needs to do is implement the consumption tax. Thats critical towards addressing the fiscal deficit problem. And it needs to embark on very serious Economic Reforms which has been put off time and time again. So theres an increasing urgency to see Economic Reforms that will boston growth because you need a combination of both of those factors together to get japan out of the crisis that its heading towards. Otherwise, you know, as some people have pointed out, japan could become the next greece. And i really think thats a rising risk now. And if jgb yields move a bit higher, the funding problems, the debt becomes unsustainable in terms of the governments ability to fund it. So i really think its a time of crisis in japan, even though global attention is at the moment focused on the eurozone, it will shift back to japan soon. It is a fascinating case. Rajib biswas. And i know, what is it . What . Well, i think theres a serious problem, but greece is the wrong comparison. Greece is a major net debtor to the rest of the world. Sony is going downhill, but theres still toyota. What does greece have . They have a lot longer fuse than a time bomb. Still a telling comparison quarterback nevertheless. Coming up on worldwide exchange, dont go anywhere. In an exclusive interview, jeanclaude trichet tells stephane pedrazzi why markets need to be more upbeat. Take a look at samsung shares. They are down. Sherry, whats going on . Hi, kelly. Investors were worried about news that eu regulators are getting ready to accuse Samsung Electronics of breaking competition rules when it filed its patent lawsuits against rival apple. Now, the commission is saying samsung should have tried to license its patents on fair, reasonable and nondiscriminatory terms before launching any sales claims against apple and this may explain why apple dropped those claims earlier this week. Now, the eus probe has been underweight since january. Many analysts say the eus move had been spented. Samsungs withdraw came on the heels of a california judges refusal to block sales of dozens of samsungs mobile offerings. A u. S. Jury back in august said those devices violated apples numerous apple patents. In a court filing on thursday, apple said its now asking a u. S. Appeal escort to reconsider the lower courts decision to overturn the sales ban. Back to you. Great. Sherry, thanks. Moodys says the Unemployment Rate should hit 24 by 2012 in greece. I think that its absolutely clear that part of the fears of the global observers have proved unfounded. I was always convinced that it was unfounded and that the assumption that they could leave the euro area, that they could refuse the adjustment which is necessary were wrong assumptions. And now we see and, of course its difficult. Of course its hard. The people have to make adjustments. But, again, we are going in the right direction. Again, its very difficult. It goes in the right direction. You dont believe in the scenario of greek exit . No. Precisely because it appears very clearly. Neither the greek people nor the greek government nor all peers wanted that, that contrary to a lot of, you know, fears that being a little bit erroneous were journalized in the other continents. But now the europeans are making their point clearer and clearer and clearer and, of course, it is recognized. Whats your view on spain . The country managed to avoid bailout so far, but will not meet its deficit target for the full year. Did you think that spain should be given more time . Well, first of all, i think that, again, spain is going in the right direction. When you look at the current account, the deficit, you see that it had been diminished massively since the peak that they had in 2008 and 2009. And, you know, thats a very short summing up. Its been divided by more than five, though its very, very encouraging. On the other hand, you have also unity of cost which have been demonstrated quite a lot. And the exports of spain are very dynamic today. So it also demonstrates that hard work is being done. Its difficult. Its tough. It calls for a lot of efforts, but it goes in the right direction. So, again, whatever happens, i trust that the observers, the global observers observing progressively the adjustment is proceeding. In spain and in all the countries that are under adjustment. Arnab is still with us. Whats your own view on greece . The firm has changed its view on this, right, from greece, exiting to greece stays in now . Well, our view was that there was a super majority in 2013. Weve reduced that to Something Like onethird probability. What jeanclaude trichet said i guess in some sense is true. Theres been a significant increase, improvement in the verbiage from others and some improvement in the current account from greece. Thats what happens when imports crash. Exactly. And theyve had a bit of debt, but their debt is clearly unsustainable and their growth trajectory is making the debt burden worse. Nothing has been solved. The can has been kicked down the road powerfully. Greece seems small enough at this point that european officials dont necessarily have to worry about need to go bail it out further. I think people widely expect theyll get more funds down the road. And the worry about what that will mean for the bigger economies has been by the fact ta draghi has come out of these programs to cap yields. We seem to be in this unfortunate and unstable equilibrium. Everyone is still waiting around, right . And it consists of a spanish program, about anning union, fiscal union, political un

© 2025 Vimarsana