Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20130822 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange August 22, 2013

Says the use of force may be needed in syria if a chemical weapon attack on civilians is confirmed. This as activists say that Government Forces continue to bombard damascus suburbs. Good morning, everyone. Youre watching a brandnew edition of Worldwide Exchange. I want to bring you eurozone august flash pmis. We see the eurozone private sector growth beating forecasts in july, for the august number we got the pmi of flash at 51. 3. This is versus a forecast of 51. 2. So that beats expectations. The july manufacturing pmi was 50. 3. The august services pmi flash was estimated at 51. And no, the estimates, sorry, 51. The forecast was for 50. 2. So, again, that looks to be better than expectations and this is, again, an uptick from the month of july. And this comes after we got those really strong numbers out of germany, slightly mixed numbers coming out of france. Joining us from singapore is richard jerron, chief economist at bank of singapore. Your initial response to those numbers . Yeah, certainly good numbers. I guess we have been seeing this for the past four or five months in europe. It does seem that as the head winds from fiscal tightening fade, the economy is starting to lift. I guess thats also what we saw in the gdp data last week. I think it is quite encouraging. The french manufacturing number that missed expectations. Do you think the Second Quarter growth number from that particular economy was an aberration, was it too early to pop the champagne bottles there . Well, i dont think you can expect every single number for every single country to increase every single month. Always going to be a bumpy ride in some cases. If you look broadly across the eurozone it quite clear the trend is for the economies to be coming out of recession. I think as i say less austerity, better policy mix in terms of pro growth policy mix. I think broadly it is quite encouraging. We were worried about the emerging markets, but you see clear signs of a pickup in europe. Japan is responding to the policy stimulus and u. S. Should see growth accelerating in the second half as, again, the fiscal tightening there moderates. Quite encouraging youre seeing g3 growth picking up at the moment. Lets talk about the pmi numbers out of china overnight. The hsbc flash number now above that boom bust line of 50. It seems to be converging with the official pmi numbers. Is that a clear sign of stabilization also on part of the smes . Yeah, i think the china pmi was a genuine surprise there has been some good hints in the numbers released so far this month, the Industrial Production numbers. But i think there is a bit of a mistrust on the data at the moment, the trade data, some suggestions it has been distorted by some sort of company trying to gain the capital account system. The hsbc pmi number is seen as one of the more reliable figures at the moment. It is encouraging it propped above 50. I dont know if this is the end of the story, they do have a lot of structural problems, if theyre serious about cleaning up the Credit System and trying to choke off some of this rather ponzi style lending, then i think it will be a struggle for growth, not just the rest of this year, but probably for years to come. Certainly encouraging there has been a bounce. I think if you look at the policy, the policy has become slightly more pro growth in the last month or two, they realized they dont want things to slow down too much, you may have some risk of social unrest and unemployment problems. So certainly quite encouraging signs coming out of china. Richard, why is china not seeing the same selloff as some of the other, asian emerging markets. Is that because the pboc manages the currency . Yeah, i mean, certainly it has got some safe haven features at the moment. I think partly it is because theyre under current account surplus. The real focus of markets in the last week or so is on the deficit economies that need to attract foreign capital. China has huge reserves. And they do have a fairical icld capital account. You dont have the risk of big capital outflows anyway. At the same time, it does also have some policy support for the growth story. So i think china, you know, worried about it structurely in the medium term. When the focus is on the capital flows to emerging markets, it offers some safe haven status. Thank you for those initial thoughts. Lets show you what is happening with the european markets on the back of the better than expected pmi numbers. The stoxx europe 600 is at a session high, up by. 9 . This say nice bounceback from the weakness over the last couple of trading days. Keep in mind, we also had some encouraging earnings reports over the last few days, which is also helping sentiment a little bit. Want tho show you the indices oe by one. The ftse, underperformer of late, now bouncing back nicely, up by 1 . The xetra dax gaining more than 1 . We have seen stocks in the periphery, especially in spain and portugal seeing a bit of outperformance with regards to the core markets today. Keep that in mind. Ahold is one of the companies that has reported numbers this morning. The stock is up by almost 5 . Now, the Dutch Grocery giant has reported stronger than expected operating profit in the Second Quarter. That was helped by cost cutting. But the group posted weaker sales growth in the u. S. This is where it owns food outlets like shop stop and shop and giant in the northeast. Speaking to cnbc earlier in first on cnbc interview, the groups ceo weighed in on the economic pressures facing u. S. Consumers. You see constraints of the economic environment, as we also see in our sales growth. Low level of inflation, but you still see the pressure of the economy also in other parts of the u. S. , but certainly in the northeast. Lets continue with a look at the bond markets where we saw the tenyear treasury yield back to those twoyear highs at 2. 9 . This is in response to the fed minutes, which the market is pricing in as september tapering. We saw bund yields tracking near u. S. Counterparts higher currently at 1. 92 . In the forex markets, dollar ra chinese data. Some traders used this as an opportunity to sell into the rally. Sterling dollar coming under pressure a little bit. The Dollar Strength is the big theme of the morning on the back of the fomc minutes. Markets in asia, Adam Bakhtiar is standing by to give us the full rundown. Adam . Good morning, carolin. A really, really tough session for the markets in the Asian Pacific region this thursday. The lack of clarity from the fomc minutes, you know, was really ignored across the board. Investors continue to price in at some stage the feds with going to taper. But even though we dont even know when that is going to happen or by how much. To a certain degree, yes, the chinese flash pmi data did provide some support, in the case of the late day trading for the hang seng and the shanghai composite. Elsewhere, it was really just a day of selling. The bright spot is some of these markets coming off the intraday lows. Look at the epicenter of the capital flight, really is in southeast asia, continues to be so. Most of the markets, all of them in negative territory. The worst performer, philippines, as you can imagine, it has been out of action all week because of a Public Holiday. And because of the weather disruptions that kept the Stock Exchange closed. But the selling pressure continues to mount across all of the other markets in the Southeast Asian region. We also saw pressure in the equity sphere. We saw currency markets come out of tremendous pressure as a tenyear, u. S. Treasury yield, 2. 92 . And Dollar Strength, that impacted the hardest hit currencies in the emerging market space, particularly india. The moves today eclipsing the record lows that we hit yesterday of about 64 plus. Currency at one stage moved down to 65. 5. The traders saying on policy confusion from the rbi, because apparently this week they loosen liquidity in the market and the measure they introduced in july to stem the declines in the indian rupee. Were seeing slight relief, back from the lows, but a weak picture across the board for all these currencies, even down to singapore. That currency also getting hit. The stocks we have been watching out for today, it has been a lot about Market Reaction to the earnings. Asias largest discount carrier, this has a fleet of 120 aircraft, their numbers were terrible. Stock down by 8. 4 . The company of the airline getting hit by its offshore u. S. Dollar borrowings. We got trinity coming off the days lows. That stock down 5 . You may be familiar with this one. It manages a lot of high end Luxury Brands like jeeves and hawks, both in europe. That stock was down. Rebounded. Fortescue, the fourth largest iron ore producer, fantastic numbers, profits up 12 plus. Mixed day across the board. The august hsbc flash pmi data getting lost in translation a little bit here. We did see some pickup, of course, in the month of august. The final number will be out, of course, a little more than a weeks time. This was very, very encouraging data, helping to support the hong kong markets a little bit. But i suppose coming at an inconvenient time, carolin, today, with the overall stock that we saw in the Global Equity markets. Back to you. Adam, thank you very much for that. The minutes from the feds latest policy meeting show officials were ready to start tapering the Central Banks massive Bond Buying Program this year, but dont give it clear indication of exactly when that may happen. While the september meeting is still in play, fed fund futures are showing an increase in those betting the fed could hold off tapering until the october or december meeting. Attentionships today to u. S. Economic data including jobless claims and the annual fed symposium in jackson hole, wyoming. Market watchers expect the debate to focus on the exit strategy and impact on emerging economies. Brazils Central Bank President Alexander Tombini canceled his scheduled trip to monitor the markets from brazil. Over the last 30 days, the real has dropped by 10 and the central bank has been forced to intervene in the currency markets. Reports suggest the brazilian government is going to revise down its 2014 growth forecast. The current projection is likely to be slashed from 4 toward the market consensus of 2. 5 . Well, that would be a pretty big drop. Still with us is richard jerron, chief economist at bank of singapore. Lets kick things off with the fed minutes. Did we learn anything new from it . No. Nothing new at all. It was pretty clear from the comments of various officials in recent weeks theyre prepared to taper before the end of the year. I think the best bet is still september. The data has been fairly good, especially late market data has been fairly good. I cant see anything to persuade them to hold off. I think you also got to ask, if they dont taper in september and all the market expects it, because of a little bit of market volatility, then can they ever taper . It might be taken quite badly if theyre shown to be scared by a little bit of market volatility. Most of the volatility youre seeing, got nothing to do with the u. S. , all about the secondary effects of the emerging markets. I would be surprised if they waited past the september meeting. Is this actually adequately priced into the market or not . Given the recent bout of volatility, you would think, no, it hasnt been accounted for or discounted by the market yet. Do you think once we are hit by tapering, were going to see more and more volatility . Well, should be priced in. But three months now, to the day, since bernanke really kicked off the fears about tapering. So, havent heard about it yet, youve been living in a cave somewhere. So you would have thought it should be priced in. I think the problem the markets has is that there is not really any precedent for this. You never have this extreme Liquidity Provision in modern times. The prospects of it coming to an end and beginning to reverse. And so, you know, i think logic tells you it should be priced in. There is still uncertainty of how everybody is going to react when they finally do push the trigger. My sentiment is we should be pretty much close to the worst by now. And you may even get a buy on the fact type of rally. But i think you to accept there is going to be volatility because there is so much uncertainty related to it. Yeah, markets have been reacting extremely irrationally about the fed minutes. Thank you so much for those thoughts, richard jerron, chief economist at bank of singapore. Lets change tack. A suspected chemical weapon attack has left hundreds dead in syria. Amateur video from damascus showed the bodies of victims from all ages and we must warn you, the footage were about to show contains images you may find upsetting. Opposition groups are claiming more than 1100 people died in the attack while syrian authorities have denied the claims. The u. S. Says there are strong indications the assad regime used chemical weapons while the u. N. Says further investigation into the incident is required. The french government has been much more direct in its rhetoric, calling for International Community to use force if the allegations are verified. Yousef is in cairo. Yousef, what is the latest . Well, carolin, the comments by france really show the frustration that some countries are having with the United Nations security council. We have seen this in the past, a year ago, where we had a standoff in the security council. A lot of countries took independent action, either by arming the rebels or arming the government. Now, we cannot independently verify the footage or the death toll. But having looked through the video extensively, very graphic footage, and spoken to some analysts, we can say that the footage is showing casualties that have symptoms that are consistent with a chemical weapons attack. Again, we cant confirm it actually happened, but were seeing victims that are choking, foaming around the mouth, violently shaking, very disturbing images and that was hoped to fuel a renewed conversation in the u. N. Security council. That didnt happen. Russia made it clear that based on the information it had, this cannot but suggest that once again we are dealing with a preplanned provocation is the quote we got. And iran also saying it is unlikely to have anything to do with the government of bashar al assad. The other side of the story, of course, the United States and the european union, which are calling for an investigation, there are actually u. N. Weapons inspectors in damascus, but even yesterdays meeting did not yield a consensus on whether they should step out of their hotels and go down a few blocks. Thats how close they are, actually, to the site of the attack. That shows you the political impasse that exists, and also raises the stakes in the standoff for the next few years. Yousef, thank you for that. Joining us in the studio is hadley gamble. Youve been talking to a number of arab diplomats. What intel are they giving you . There still such a number of questions to be discussed in terms of the timing of this attack, as yousef mentioned. The u. N. Inspectors a couple of blocks away from where this took place. You look at it, and the timing is just incredibly questionable. But also you have to look at the broader picture, bashar al assad, it raises the question of who is really in charge in syria. Also raises the stakes in terms of, you know, if he were to be taken out, he would want the International Community to take him out rather than any kind of rebel force. Things would end badly either way, but much more so if he were to be taken out in any other way. We have to look at in terms of the weapons, the man still has syria still has the strongest amount of weapons on the ground, he has superiority of force. The timing is questionable. Lets talk about the u. S. role in all of this. President obama once said that once the red line is crossed, relating to the use of chemical weapons, the u. S. Would act decisively. It seems as though that red line has now been crossed, but, you know, many people would argue the u. S. Is still dragging its feet. What are the constraints that the u. S. Is facing . We saw yesterday in the White House Press briefing we saw an administration loathe to talk about red lines as all. Struggling to stay on message, the message now is obama care and will be that for the next couple of weeks. Theyre looking to the International Community to take some kind of stance, some kind of action before they can even begin to commit at least verbally to doing something in syria. Okay. Hadley, thank you so much for that. And i know youre up really late trying to gather all the information. We appreciate that. Meanwhile, coming up on todays show, the guessing game continues as there are no more clues about tapering from the latest fed minutes. But are markets and investors overreacting . Yes is the answer, thats acc d according to our guest. Tune in to find out why as well be live in new york. Disgraced politician bo xilai is on trial in china where he faces embezzlement, abuse of power and bribery charges totalling 3. 4 million. Well be live at the courthouse in the next 15 minutes. Central bankers from around the globe gather later today in jackson hole, but with one notable absence. What does Ben Bernankes noshow mean for the get together . Well be live in jackson hole at 11 30 cet. Does solar energy have a Bright Future in the uk . Cnbcs Helia Ebrahimi is live at a solar farm to shed some light on the matter. Tune in at 10 40 cet. The theme to the center of germany where the price of Renewable Energy is a hot election topic. [ male announcer ] its time. Time to have new experiences with a familiar keyboard. To update our status without opening an app. To have all our messages in one place. To browse. And share. Faster than ever. Its time to do everything better than before. The new blackberry q10. Its time. A german chancellor

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