Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20131114 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange November 14, 2013

Slowdown on, weaker demand at home takes its toll as the abe government predicts a rebound. And europes Energy Supplies warn of an impending crisis forcing cutting of costs. Display youre watching Worldwide Exchange, bringing you Business News from around the globe. Italian gdp, Third Quarter, minus 1. Minus 0. 1 quarter on quarter, which is what we were expecting. Forecast minus 0. 1 , as well. And were getting the latest from the euro dollar. Just tracking 1. 3454. 1. 3295 was the twomonth low that we hit last week post the jobs. We havent hit that again, but we were down on the 1. 33 level towards the beginning of the week. We have the latest ia numbers out, as well. The ia is warning of up side price pressure. Supply up 600,000 barrels a day in october. More on the ia, more on growth, as well. Besides italy, france is sticking to its full year forecast despite reaction. The quarter on quarter data missed analyst expectations. It came in at minus 0. 1 . Although the finance minister said the contraction is not a surprise. More to analysts. German gdp grew 3 in the Third Quarter to stay in line. The countrys fiscal efforts appear to be fire ago shot against brussels season with interesting analysis alongside its release. For more on that, annette is with us in frankfurt. They dont like people saying they have expected surpluses of the eurozone, annette. Not really. But if youre looking at the euro set figures, then you see that germany has to expect a surplus for the eurozone. Theyre having a surplus for the rest of the world, i. E. China as well as United States. So that whole imbalance thing within the eurozone, that really makes sense. So then it comes to really if you look at the numbers, and those numbers now for the Third Quarter are most likely going down very well in berlin and not too well in brussels and as well in washington. Because as far as first time i can remember is that growth is supported by household Government Spending and very importantly, i have to stress that Capital Spending of German Companies because during the run up to the elections, we heard a lot of companies complaining about high energy produces, insecurities, when it comes to tax hikes, and a lot of companies did want to spend inside germany, but they were threatening to go away. And this actually shows now that German Companies invest in germany, as well, and that is a very good sign when it comes to investment demand. And also excerpts were a drag on growth, which is really surprising. But might be, as well, due to the strong euro, ross. With that, back to you. Thanks, annette. Joining us with his thoughts, christian sopes. A lot of money has flown from the United States into europe on the back of a recovery that now seems to be weaker than what we thought it was. Well, it was probably weaker in q3 than in q 2. But overall, it remains on track. I think the broad story is pretty much the same. Germany is contributing to the eurozone country with its domestic demand. Spain having an export led recovery. But there are some weak spots in the eurozone. Italy is one and france, as well found out today, is another one. Where these reforms helping in spain and pore dew tu gal and so on havent been done and the support from domestic demand isnt as strong. Two really big weak spots, they dont get much bigger than that. Trou. The two of them together are about 40 gdp. While italy is clearly on an improving trend, even though its not as strongly improving in spain, france is on no trend at all. It lasts the q2 growth was probably a one off blip. I think overall its stag nating, falling behind the rest of the eurozone. Yeah. And we have this report on french competitiveness. Its warping that it falls behind Southern Europe companies that are leaner and meaner. What is the french prescription . Well, weve been warning about france ever two years ago. We have sent out warnings because french costs are still deteriorating. That trend has simply continued. So spain is having a bit of an export miracle, if you like, where france is not improving at all. That makes the prescription pretty clear, as well. France needs to bring down the huge weight of the Public Sector. It has the highest Public Sector expenditure quota in all of europe. So the prescription is clear. More reforms. But hollande still seems to be hesitating. All right, christian, stay there. I want to look at this story, as well. Japans abenomics era is flying low to the ground these days, chinas gdp growth slowed by half. Its down from 3. 8 the previous quarter. Weaker consumption and slowing exports to emerging markets became a drag. Japanese political leaders say the slowdown is temporary. Christian, were still waiting for this third arrow of abenomics to be fired properly. Is it . There is a bit of an attempt to do something with that rise in consumption tax. Not just structurally, but its also the fiscal weakness that japan has in this case. And they are trying to start dealing with that. But, of course, in the shortterm, thats going to have a negative impact. A rising consumption tax is going to weaken consumption even further and the data we got is concerns are not really going anywhere in japan. If anything, its construction investment both on the private side and the public side which is not really reassuring if you think that japan needs a more structural boost to the economy. And well get your thoughts on this story, as well. Janet yellen is holing a confirmation hearing today to be the next fed chairman at 10 00 a. M. Eastern. Shes expected to defend the feds aggressive Bond Buying Program. In her prepared remarks, yellen says the u. S. Economy has come a long way since the financial crisis, but theres more work to be done. She also says while unemployment has come down, its still too high. She believes the fed needs to continue to support the economy by saying the surest path to returning to a more normal approach to Monetary Policy. And the ceo of jpmorgan said a continued dovish approach is what investors fully expect. It would be stunning if she wasnt. As shes been sitting on the Federal Reserve board, sitting next to chairman bernanke, by the way, i think shes just a wonderful choice. Shes a first rate intellect and a wonderful values driven human being. I think having a woman running the Federal Reserve for the first time is fantastic. No, i dont expect shell be very different from chairman bernanke. The last time when bernanke mentioned tapering the markets, they just went wild. Do you think it was an overreaction, what we saw and what do you think happens the next time tapering comes around for real . Every now and then, the markets behavior like school children. They overreact, run around like crazy. We know were going to have tapering. We know were looking in the state of excess liquidity right now. Its happening because the economy is recovering. The best result is the economies demonstrate they are recovering. Its a good outcome. If somebody is surprised by this over the next couple of months, and it will occur over the next couple of months, then shame on then. Theres been plenty of warning here. Do you think the evidence is going surface within the next couple of months. I think its rebuilding. Honestly, had it not been for the debt ceiling debacle, i think we would have had tapering right now. So i think as we get closer to a mini bargain, not a grand bargain, and some evidence that congress and the administration can come together, i think youll see tapering. I would expect definitely in the first half of next year. Do you think all the money out there has created asset bubbles . You know, its thats a tough question. Certainly the feeling in the emerging markets and having been in indonesia before today and singapore and now up through hong kong and china, theres clearly a sense of that. But, you know, it was necessary. You have to take necessary steps to get the economy globally imbalanced. The next thing is global economies are recovering. The uk is aging months ahead of schedule. These are small term shocks for the market, but longterm very, very positive. Christian schultz is still with us. Christian, equities are up today because of yellens soothing thoughts about, look, we need to remain fairly stimulative. The report is even if they did pay for 5 billion or 10 billion, the fed is still extremely stimulative. The markets are rather one way, they either think were losing or were tightening. What do you think is going to happen . First of all, its very important janet yellen doesnt disappoint market expectations. Shes living up to that reputation that she is a super dove. That is reassuring for markets. The fed is certainly not going to spoil this recovery by tightening too early. But i think the real test for yellen will come with the same issue bernanke faced back in may and that is how to communicate correctly and smoothly that the fed will ultimately have to taper the flow of liquidity at some point. That will be the real challenge. If markets overreact again, then it could have an impact on the overall economy and that is clearly something where the fed doesnt want to markets to become too dependent on this quantitative easing. I think the real test for yellen is still to come. If you are dependent on Economic Data which is volatile and politics, which is even more uncertain, how are you supposed to communicate your uncertainty . Well, in retrospect, we could argue not the way that bernanke did it. Or what you might even more say is the feds communication in may and the subsequent month was not in line with the decision that they then took in september. They have been pretty clearly signaling that they would taper and then they didnt taper. These two things were inconsistent. I think the important thing for yellen is that shes also sure that they will actually act afterwards so that communication and decision are consistent next time around. Okay. Christian, thanks for that, senior economist at berenberg. Lets bring you up to speed with whats going on with Global Equities today and thats helping the Global Equity market out. Take a look at this on the Dow Jones Stoxx 600. Advancers outpacing decliners by nearly 9 to 1 on the Dow Jones Stoxx 600. We are at the session low, up. 0. 6 . Today weve rebounded a little bit, up by 0. 7 on the xetra dax, 0. 9 on the cac 40 and ftse mib up 0. 3 , as well. Take a look at the bond markets. Tenyear treasury rates, volatile. We hit 2. 79 on the tenyear yield on tuesday, down to 2. 68 the yield during wednesdays session. Gilt year, around 2. 8 . We were going into the quarterly inflation report. They nudged up their growth forecast. We might have a sweet spot of Growth Without higher inflation in the uk. Keep our eyes on that. Commodity rates and currency rates, as well. Euro dollar, 1. 3455 at the moment. Dollar yen, 99. 87 is where we stand. Not far away from the 100 level. Aussie lsh dollar still down at onemonth lows and sterling just above the 1. 60 level against the dollar, as well. And lets check in on commodities, too, for you as far as brent is concerned. Have the latest iea report out right now. Have we got them . Maybe we dont. Yes, we do. Marvelous. Brent up to 107. 32. Nymex, 93. 67. Sixuan has the latest for us out of singapore. Thank you, ross. The better than expected dovish gdp data and Janet Yellens comments helped markets in asia. Also helped by comments by federal minister aso. Also some Short Covering and future chasing ahead of the yearend but clothing. So names like fast retailing, kedi, panasonic and isuzu motors are among the big gainers. Meanwhile, china markets stabilized a bit after yesterdays default. The shanghai composite added 0. 6 . The hang seng added 0. 8 . Meanwhile, south koreas kospi positive 0. 2 . Australia ended higher, again, thanks to yellens dovish remarks. And i do want to show you some chinese banks in the midland. Mid sized lenders extended yesterdays selloff. This comes after the central bank refrained from pumping liquidity into the money markets resulting in a net drain of funds for the second straight week. Thats a look out of asian markets. Back to you, ross. Still to come, will russian steelmakers bend as concerns grow for falling bland for chinese importers . Well speak exclusively about their results at 10 40 cet. Finally, we go live to new york. Well discuss the Unprecedented Demand for art prices at 11 20. Plenty more to come on Worldwide Exchange. Welcome back. How is everything . Theres nothing like being your own boss and my customers are really liking your flat rate shipping. Fedex one rate. Really makes my life easier. Maybe a promotion is in order. Good news. I got a new title. And a raise . Management couldnt make that happen. [ male announcer ] introducing fedex one rate. Simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex. Plenty more earnings out of europe today. Burberry, the stock up 2 this morning. Revenue came in just over 1 billion pounds, 17 over last year. Shares in bouygues up 7 , jumping after the french firm had a Third Quarter profit up to 532 Million Euros helped by cost cuts to its mobile phone and broadcasting division. Taylor wimpy, up 4. 8 . Its confident it can deliver on full year expectations, the home on builder adding with the Housing Market in the uk, Pretty Healthy in the second half of the year. Lets turn our attention back to prudential. Its reported sales up 6 in the first nine months of the year. The stock up 2 . Gains in the u. S. And asia offsetting a decline in the british market. Earlier this morning, we also asked the prudentan ceo on if his company had any major announcements to cut. The four more important words at brew dent prudential is more of the same. Theres an upside here. And we just have to continue to produce results. I dont think anybody should expect any drama on december 10th. The baby boomers in america, 27 million of them, so we have to continue trading that way. And the uk. Tidjane thiam saying thats okay for investors. The down side for the markets today is in the utility sector. Centrica warning that earnings will stay flat over last year after reporting profit sales just shy of forecasts. Britains biggest household Energy Supplies taking heat. They own gas. And rwe down nearly 6 . The german manager firm saying it expects next years profits to fall further. Its warning of a deep crisis in the energy. Theyve announced plans to cut more jobs and trim Capital Spending. All right. Lets get the excuse me, i was about to sneeze. Annette has more for us from frankfurt. Its the energy crisis, annette. It has me all kertuffled. Bless you, ross. Looking at rwe, they are planning on reducing their cap ex to just 2 billion euros a year to 2,017. So no growth story at all. Looking at their profit forecast for 2017, this is coming in at the lower end of what analysts had expected in addition to some quotes from their ceos saying a lot of their gas plans are not really profitable right now. And that is the biggest problem is, of course, germany. We have that Renewable Energy law which gives priority to feeding and Renewable Energy which, of course, is that waiting on prices on the wholesale prices. And wholesale prices among the lowest in the eurozone in germany as we have this renewable boom. Traditional utilities such as rwe and they actually missed the train to change their Business Models some years ago and suffering now tremendously. Their gas plans are no longer profitable. A lot of them, at least. And now a lot of hope, as well, in the new government because they will revamp the energy law and there might be some concession for those utilities, perhaps some fee they might be paid for operating their gas plans because it should be there in case Renewable Energy is not reliable. So rwe isnt a bad place. But looking at the other side, they are the biggest winner here on the market as they are saying they are cutting costs by 2017, as well. And at the same time, they are exceeding expectations for the Third Quarter. With that, ross, back to you. All right, annette, thanks for that. We got away without sneezing. Eads posted a 7 rise in ninemonth revenue. But they have warned a significant change in its jet liner. We are very cautious here, but it was strong with q3 orders. The british airways, lufthansa and the momentum continued very well in october, a very important order with jal. So youre right, end of october, we are about 1200 already. So our guidance says more than 1,200 for the year. So that leaves a bit of flexible upwards. We have six weeks to go and an important air show coming up next week. And then contracts in the pipeline to we finalized. Lets wait and see what its going to be in six weeks from now. The stock is now noun as airbus. They cant combine the two, clearly. Jpmorgan has counseled a twitter question and answer session after jpm became flooded with insults. Some of them were like this. Does jamie dimon pet a small cat and laugh ominously while hes ruining poor peoples lives . And another said is the fact that hes paid over 500 million in fines since august a source of pride or are you embarrassed that its not higher . Not the sort of things theyre looking for, really. So the bank tweeted tomorrows q a is canceled. Bad idea. Back to the drawing board. Yes, i think so. Meanwhile, james gorman asked if he dare enter the world of social media. I do not. But thank you for asking. No, i dont engage in any social media. Unfortunately i found people have tried to mimic me at different points. Should they ride the storm, accept the occasional tawdry tweet .

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