Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20131213 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange December 13, 2013

Another profit warning. Details of emerging of a capital shortfall in its irish business. Which is poised to exit its Bailout Program . Is it cause for cheers or concern . The Prime Minister tells cnbc the time is right. Its a great sense of achi e achievement attached what we set out to do almost three years ago now. Announcer youre watching Worldwide Exchange, bringing you Business News from around the globe. Hello. Welcome to the last Worldwide Exchange of the week. What a week its been. Plenty more, though, to come in the final two hours of the good stuff today. On todays show, an uncle of the north Korean Leader has been executed after being branded worse than a dog in the state media report. Well get the latest from seoul. And will gold finish the year having suffered its biggest slump since 19811. Well take a look at whats taken the shine of the precious metal this year and whether its time for investors to come back or not. Disneys animated film frozen has kicked the hunger games out of the top spot. We ask if it can win the battle of top Christmas Movies. And the Cyber Crime Unit of Britains National crime agency has warned that the Digital Currency bitcoin is fueling a new wave of online illegality. Well take a look at the challenge for those trying to improve web security. Thats all coming up. But first, ireland will be the first eurozone nation to exit its international Bailout Program this sunday. There are still kinks that need to be worked out. Irish banks are the most vulnerable in the eu according to moodys. Lets get the latest from london. Julia has been speaking to the finance minister. Jules, great that theyre coming out. What risks remain . Its a crucial question, ross. If you look at their debt profile, actually, theyre now seeing debt at around 123 of gdp. Thats higher than it was before the crisis. Weve got unemployment above 12 . There are still concerns about the banks, as you just said. There are concerns about them being the most vulnerable in the eurozone. Yes, its coming a long way. Now its going to be a really concerted work in terms of boosting work and the recovery profile begins for this country. When i spoke to the finance minister, i asked him whether theres excess pressure on ireland to be this symbol of recovery in the eurozone. And what this means for ireland. Listen in. Theres a great sense of achievement of having completed, a task which i set on out to do almost three years now. This was a very limpy and Detailed Program and we worked in cooperation with the imf and the European Commission and the European Central bank and completed 270 separate pieces of policy. And it was very intense and some weeks we several policy changes to make the economy productive again and to get it growing and to create jobs, which was the primary objective of the program. Do you think theres excessive pressure on ireland to be this symbol of recovery in the eurozone, particularly given the social costs here in ireland . I dont think that was the approach. I never got a feeling that we were being used for symbolic reasons. We had a Major Economic and financial crisis which needed to be addressed. And we addressed it by a series of preventive measures which we implemented on the time frame. Were at the end of that process now and actions amounting to 270 are completed and weve gone down all the finance which was made available to us. Were back in the markets now, our tenyear bond and the second year americas is trading around 3. 5, which is lower than spain or italy or portugal and many other countries. And our economy is growing now again for the last three years. Were creating very large numbers of jobs, over 1,000 jobs a week. That is about an increase of 375 in a 12month period. So were doing quite well. Another critical element here is the countrys level of debt. I noticed that the imf recently suggested they would leave the door open for potential capital levellies if the debt doesnt increase quickly enough. Should investors be concerned . I doubt its going to peak at 124 of gdp this year. But then it will go down. But its not the size of the debt only that people should Pay Attention to. Because what is equally important is the majority of the bar reeing and the Interest Rates at which the Interest Rates were paying on the debt. So when you look at that, you get a different take on the irish debt because the average maturities are now 12 years. As well as that, we carry over 20 billion in cash buffers. Thats about 2. 5 times our deficit. So were fully funded out into 215, but theres an accountant clerk which you wouldnt use on the Balance Sheet of a company. And the cash assets which we have, the cash buffers, we cant offset those against the debt. So were holding those in cash. But if you were to offset it against the debt, well, then our debt levels are much lower. Also, we are going to have a significant instruct the turl this year or next year in 2014 in our budget. There is optimism about tending of this Bailout Program, but there is acknowledgement that there are risks and plenty of issues to address. But when youre raising cash at 3. 5 and youre raising cash at cheaper levels than when you had a aaa rating, you cant quite argue, really, with that. Now, coming up later on in Worldwide Exchange, im going to be talking to the head of pac services, a crucial issue to track the investment, the low tax rates here in ireland. Were going to be the talking to the head of the industrial agency, the body responsible for bringing in fdi, record levels for ireland last year and theyre expected to beat those numbers this year, too. Well be bringing you that later on in Worldwide Exchange. Thank you. Well catch you a little bit later. Good to see you. European officials hailed irelands recovery, a vindication of their strategy of internal valuation. But if theres anything that ireland are doing that can be successfully replicated elsewhere . Well, you know, i think the key here is wonderful. If we think about it in terms of ownership of the reform program, that is certainly something that could be replicated elsewhere. Plus, if you look at the fact that, you know, polls actually are looking quite positive for the governing coalition in ireland now that the troika is about to leave the town, that is serm something that portuguese politicians are going to look at going into 2014. Yeah. One thing is ireland is a very competitive export base. They lured in american text, pharmaceutical companies, part of the reason why they have a Financial Services sector. At the same time, weve seen adjustment there in the spanish economy, for example, if you look at port competitiveness. So there are positive signs. You still dont have to buy into the troika, agreeing that this shows the strategy is fully working. But nevertheless, its positive that you can show two voters in germany, as well. I was going to say, theres even less reason for them to advocate burden sharing. That is true in terms of mutualzation in the context of the banking union, for example, certainly. On the one hand, its positive news. You are able to go out to german voters, to members of the bundestag and saying, look, this recipe is working. It is positive in the sense that you can see the strategy is working. Stick around. Well come back to you. Right now, lets bring you up to speed with where we are with global markets. We saw falls in the u. S. Overnight. Advancers outpacing decliners on the stoxx europe 600. We saw a 100point decline on the dow. Right now, the ftse is absolutely flat. The xetra dax is up around 12 points. The cac 40 up 6 points and the ftse mib is up 0. 5 . We would stop this weeks run of losses if we stay like this. Simon lee stepped down as chief executive of rsa, the stock down 17 . Thats not why. Hes faced scrutiny since the head of the irish unit quit over alleged accounting disputes. Psa, peugeot citron down another 10 after being down 7 yesterday. The industry minister declined to see whether the government will buy into pleasure, this after General Motors has announced the entire stake. And do you have ya bank is up despite the fact that the Bank Regulator in germany is reportedly asked for documents relating to the problem into the possibly manipulation of benchmark gold and silver prices. We saw them particular higher. Thats where we stand at the moment. The dollar generally has gotten stronger. Dollar yen, 103. 53. Euro dollar, hit 1. 38 on wednesday. Were currently at 1. 3756. But the fact that the yen is weaker, has helped the markets out. Lets head to singapore. Hi, sixuan. Japan is among the top gainers today. Overall, its a mixed trade for markets. But a stronger dollar against the yen helped exporters gain some ground. The nikkei 225 added 0. 4 . The shanghai xotit fell 0. 3 . Its down 11. 8 for the week as investors took profits in some recent winners. The hang seng index ended marginally higher. After surging 26 in its market debut yesterday. Elsewhere, seoul shares ended down by 0. 25 . In australia, rebounded 0. 7 . Still lost nearly 2 for the week. Meanwhile, five banks sold negotiable certificates of positive today marking another step for relaxing controls over rates. Thats a look out of asian markets. Back to you, ross. Thank you very much, indeed, for that, sixuan. Now were doing something a little different today on Worldwide Exchange. Its always been a part of civilization since the beginning, but pa pie russ to paper is a whole new level. We have going to have the entire two hours of Worldwide Exchange scribed by this young lady here. Youve already started. Just explain what it is. Were taking a graphical representation of everything we talk about on the show today. How do you do this . So its mainly getting to the main points, summarizing bits, simplifying all the information and trying to catch those themes visually, focusing on the we started off the show and weve already started here. So we talk about ireland. Just explain what youve written there. While youve got to think about the key points and then and then find the visual metaphors that would represent that. On a drawing. I would convey the main points of that information. That bit of the gmi, youve started subscribing a bit of the gmi. Not really about going into the detail, but capturing the big picture and making it a memorable overall picture at the end of the show. Because by the end of the show, this entire board, what will it look like, do we know . Not really. But it should be full of pictures and a summary of everything that was said during the show. Its great to have you. You say everything we talk about today will be scribed by amanda. At the end of the show, we will have a graph can representation of the whole two hours of Worldwide Exchange. Fernando, well keep coming back to you on the show. And at the end, youll be able to see exactly what we talked about, as well. Still to come, as well, while the Business World is scribing, well talk to the founder of innovation arts about how this gets used in the program, as well. But thats happening throughout todays show. So the next topic for fernanda to scribe is well talk about germany. This weekend, the social Democratic Party will unveil results of a party ballot on whether to form a grand coalition with Angela Merkels christian democrats. What happens now . Well, were going to get the results on sunday and then also the cabinet list. So were going to have clarity over the next cabinet. What did the spd get . Probably going to get Foreign Affairs and Something Like a Super Ministry as the german call it for the german economy. Its what used to be sort of the number two job. Why has it become less than important . Well, its the eurozone crisis. If you look at the way hes managed that crisis in europe, domestically in germany here, but its essentially turned the finance mip industry intos finance ministry. We had a euro Group Earlier in the week where there was a sort of road map for the eu banking union, put it like that. What do you think german position is on that . We seem to have a stage process. Were in the first instance of nationalization. And some way way back is a possibly of a rescue fund. If anything, it has become more hesitant when it comes to mushlzation. We talk about using public banks. With the party joining the government in germany, that has become even more unlikely, really. So it is the liability that were seeing and potentially with this deal emerging next week, i think it is very unlikely that were going to see any role for the year next year. Although discipline did talk about there would be a Single Resolution Fund. Well, there would be a Single Resolution Fund, but with National Chambers as it looks for now until that 20 years down the line when a bank levy has filled up the resources in this fund. Its a Single Resolution Fund made of different components which arent at all connected. Exactly. And the story here is that market pressure is off. And as long as market pressure is off, we dont see germany moving towards mutualzation on that front. Thank you so much indeed for joining us. And we also are seeing pictures on twitter at the moment of what appears to be the first snowfall in cairo. There you go. For the first time in 112 years. Dont forget, of course, well keep you updated on how the live recording of Worldwide Exchange is working, as well. We have our very own scribe today from innovation arts. Shes going to record everything we talk about on the program, as well. That is and more still to come on todays issue of Worldwide Exchange. [ male announcer ] the new new york is open. Open to innovation. Open to ambition. Open to bold ideas. Thats why new york has a new plan dozens of tax free zones all across the state. Move here, expand here, or start a new business here and pay no taxes for ten years. Were new york. If theres something that creates more jobs, and grows more businesses. Were open to it. Start a taxfree business at startupny. Com. Yep. Got all the cozies. [ grandma ] with new fedex one rate, i could fill a box and ship it for one flat rate. So i knit until it was full. Youd be crazy not to. Is that nana . [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. Simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex. North koreas state media says the uncle of the north Korean Leader has been executed. He was once considered north koreas number two leader, was guilty of treason. A white house Spokesman Says if confirmed, this will be another example of north koreas brutality. Lets get more of the reaction in south korea. Chery kang is in seoul. Hi, ross. I guess the question now is what does his execution mean for north korea in the future, down the road . There are two different ways to take this. One, the young kim is confident enough to do this with enough power consolidated sort of signaling that, hey, i can do the job on my own without you, which means a stability in the regime. Or two, kim was not confident enough and that was sort of a mission of intablet in the regime, we are having troubles and thats why he had to cleanse any challenge to his power, even if it means his own uncle. Some are saying this is more likely given north koreas heavy campaign on this execution, on this story, sort of seen as a move to give out a stern, strong message to those who might have worked with his uncle. Now, the second analysis could be more dangerous, too, because that would mean jim jokim jong. Very much inline with these concerns, south koreas government came out with this announcement a couple of minutes ago, that it is watching the situation as something of gravity and that the military here is hiking up its monetary for i actually quote north koreas potential provocation against south korea. Or any possibly terrorism in related developments. So thats the reaction out of seoul to this development. Ross, back to you now. Okay, chery, thanks for that. I dont know how they hope to get foreign investment, but well have to see what happens. Now, our next guest meanwhile is a fund manager who has spent some of his time time to convince u. S. Regulators to further fill. Explain your fund. Its for u. S. Investors, but not necessarily just u. S. Stocks. Correct. Were pitching to the u. S. Investor base and saying to them, theres a big world outside the u. S. , aa tractive opportunities internationally. Trying to explain that we have the fund for them. Why would a u. S. Investor invest outside the United States . U. S. Equities have led this year. They dont have the currency. Dont have to have the currency issue. I know the nikkei has been up 50 for them, but then you have to take out what happens to dollar yen the. Well, i think you sort of answer the question yourself in terms of the way you face it. In other words, the u. S. Housing is a great place to be. Its been the best overall developed market in the World Trading at alltime highs. Whereas the rest of the world, and internationally, the biggest chunk is europe, europe has gone through some issues. But the high in europe is 2007 and we got 30 to go before we reach europes own alltime highs. So i think theres a whole host of potential which is starting to become evident. What is going to drive that . Because its have we not already priced in the marginal cha

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