Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20140121 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange January 21, 2014

On the downside, dsm, the dutch Chemicals Group misses full year targets. The ceo sounding cautious on emerging markets. Europe is more or less flat. United states has some modest growth. And emerging economy growth is slowing down somewhat. So lets be realistic. The picture even worst for alston. The power giant cut its target on weak utilities demand. Plus, the pboc dumped billions of dollars worth of cash into the Financial System bringing down money market rates and easing money market fears ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. Announcer youre watching Worldwide Exchange, bringing you Business News from around the globe. Hello and warm welcome to the program. We kick off with the latest iea forecast with global demand. Theyve slightly raised the estimate of Global Oil Demand, unexpectedly strong u. S. Deliveries, partly offset by china and elsewhere. For 2013, as a whole, growth estimated at around 1. 2 Million Barrels a day accelerating to 1. 3 Million Barrels a day in 2014 as the economy continues to recover. Global supplies inched down month on month in december to 92. 3 Million Barrels a day. Biofuel output cutting nonopec liquid supplies. But opec crude supply did rebound slightly to 29. 842 Million Barrels a day which has reversed with four months of decline. Joining us now, neal. Good morning, ross. What do you make of that . Well, i wasnt surprised by the fact that the ia slightly upgraded their outlook in Global Oil Demand. I think the tendency in recent months with some marginally better Economic News from around the globe would be that Global Oil Demand would go up. Whats interesting and what you just said there is it isnt an upgrade for the u. S. , although modest, theres been a slow downgrade for china and one or two other developing countries. So net, the overall demand growth outlook, while its marginally better than previously thought, its still not that startling. And you used the figure 1. 2 Million Barrels a day for growth in 2014. While that is not particularly startling, particularly when set against the expectations of very large growth in oil supply. Oil surprises going to be stuck in a rut in 2014 . Well, i think in the early months of the year, i think oil prices are likely to remain much in the range that we see for most of the last year. Even the last two or three years. The u. S. Market is slightly different, of course, because its not an internationally traded market and surprise will remain specific, of course. But as 2014 progresses, the big issue that i think many of us are waiting to see how it plays out is how much of this expected wave of oil supply from countries such as the United States itself, brazil, russia, kazakhstan, canada, how many of on those countries will see the amount of oil we expect actually come to the market, over what time frame, how its phased in and, of course, the opec countries themselves pup mentioned in your introduction, they are shutting production in significant amounts in places like libya at the moment for reasons that were all too aware of. We expect more from iraq, for example, in 2014. And then theres iran which is a big potential overhang. Iran is a potential overhang, but when we look at this perhaps a biltmore slowly than some of the excitement weve had recently, i think it is very unlikely that significant volumes of the iranian oil, which is currently shut in by sanctions, will appear in the market in calendar 2014. However, well before the end of the year, there could be a deal which gives us visibility for iranian Oil Returning either at the very end of the year or in 2015 and that in turn could be enough to send prices down to a new trading range. Very briefly, how long before the u. S. Starts exporting oil . Well, it requires huge legislative changes in the United States. I would think in an election year, any change would inevitably lead to u. S. Oil prices tend to go rise to go closer to the international norms, i think thats political suicide in a Midterm Election year. Neal, good to see you, as always. Thank you for joining us from lloyds list intelligence. For more analysis on the downward trend in nymex, including whether shale is leading in the u. S. To head to an export ban, follow us on twitter or cnbc. Com. O also on todays show, will political unrest in thailand read to more unrest . Florida senator mark rubio has been speaking to on cnbc from tokyo. Find out what he thinks about americas debt woes and fellow republican Chris Christies scandal. Thats at 11 15 cet. U. S. Traders returning to the holiday weekend. Well look at the Fourth Quarter scorecard with john buffett. Hell be joining us from boston, snow permit approximating. And egyptians get the green light for military rule, but will it usher in the stability needed to curb tourism . Well have the latest. Plus, here in london, well unveil a brand new ranking as we unveil the worlds top ceo. Some surprises in there. What are the characteristics that make a top ten global ceos . Chinas interbank lending rates correcting after the central bank took more action to boost liquidity. The pboc injecting more than 42 billion into markets that followed yesterdays shortterm lending to big banks and trial lend to go smaller banks. The pbocs ability to keep a lid on credit has sparked market jitters. What has been the reaction in asia . Li sixuan joins us for the reaction in singapore. Hi, sixuan. Hi. Thank you, ross. So on the back of the pbocs cash injection, the shanghai composite rebounded from a sixmonth low, up almost 1 to stand above the key 2000 level. Industrial stuff and financials all rallied. And with gains in h shares, which are Hong Kong Listed china companies, the hang seng index in hong kong gained about 0. 5 today. In japan, the nikkei 225 ended by about 11 is at the dollar regained lost ground against the yen. South koreas kospi ended higher by 0. 5 . Miners took a beating in australia, but gains in banking stocks helped send the asx 200 higher by 0. 7 . As for individual work, we talked about the cash injection. Lets take a look at chinese lenders. They trade modestly higher in the mainland, but clocked in stronger gains on the hong kong bores. So the big lenders, ccb, icbc, bank of china and abc all gained over 2 today. In japan, marine transports outperformed on a nomura upgrade and the stock gained 278 today. But on the other hand, a a was among the biggest losers today. The firm apologized to customers about its recent tv ad that was accused of being racist of stereotyping foreigners and the Stock Plunged 276 . Thats your recap of asian markets. Ross. Thank you, sixuan. The ftse 100 was just up 7 points this morning, but is fairly flat again. Do you Ha Deutsche Bank was down yesterday, the cac 40 up 0. 16 . And were 0. 5 higher for the ftse mib. French power and transport Engineering Firm alstom has lowered its annual profit target. Its blaming a slowdown in orders for oil and gas by power plants. Bouygues down 5 . This is that main shareholder. Unilever, nice move, up 4 . They came out ahead of the Third Quarter saying they were being hurt by emerging markets. Today, better than expected full year results, net profits jump to go 2. 6 billion euros on the back of an 8 growth in sales from emerging markets. I spoke to paul, the ceo, a little earlier. He told me he was pleased with the figures, but is still worried about those numbers from developed markets like the u. S. It is obviously a very positive thinking population. So as soon as there is some positive news and the thing goes into overdrive, the reality is that real incomes have not really moved in the u. S. Since 1996. The growth that is there is only to the benefit of a small part of the poll lagz. We, as an organization, obviously indicator to the broader population that hasnt seen any progress. Dsm is down 8. 6 today despite ongoing currency head whippeds. But speaking exclusively to cnbc, the ceo says the company is going to try to work to offset major currency effects. I have no crystal ball, but i assure you for 2014 at this moment the Currency Exchange rate we have today, weve had as our normal growth of our businesses. We will try to offset that Currency Exchange rate affect. Europe is more or less flat. United states has some modest growth and the growth in emerging economies is slowing down somewhat. Lets be realistic. The economic environment around us is still challenging. As far as currency markets are concerned, euro dollar, 1. 3538. Away from that 1. 29 lev39 level is a sixyear high. Dollar yen, 104. 66. Aussie dollar, 0. 8784 and sterling just above 1. 64. On the bond markets, treasuries are back up and running today. The yield on the tenyear, 2. 85 . Gilt yields just below that, 2. 84 and tenyear bunds, 1. 75 . Irelands fiveyear borrowing costs down to their lowest ever level after moodys upgraded the countrys Credit Rating to investment grade. Yields on fiveyear irish bonds currently 1. 63 and that is lower than fiveyear gilt yields of 1. 72 as well as fiveyear treasury yields, as well. Joining us is ashley shire, ahead of global credit good to see you. Thanks for having me. What do you make of that, those irish yields . What an amazing recovery, right . But i think its really a statement around the recovery that we are seeing post the crisis. Europe is without question seeing stabilization. It is recovering from the financial crisis. And theres a lot of opportunity in that for investors. Yeah. Its a convergence trade. How much more convergence can we get with the economies doing Different Things . Part of the on question youre asking there is how do investors monetize this . How do they benefit from the fact that these spreads are depressing post the crisis. Last year, high yield was the way to play it. You saw over 10 return. More than that if youre in one of our funds. I was a little worried about high yields right now. We have a number of guests who have come on saying high yield is a buzz looking for a windshield. Is it . So i think theres a lot of tund in specific parts of high yield. And, you know, i think the place to look is really the Banking System in europe where youre starting to see recovery. Youre starting to see banks delever and critically raise capital. From an equity side, banks have been the place to be. If you believed in the recovery or you believed there was going to be no breakup, right, thats been the ultimate risk. Why is now the debt the place to be for banks . So european banks need to raise something on the order of 200 billion euro with the bank capital in the form of capital securities, which are fixed income securities, over the course of the next five years. That means that these securities are going to have to come cheap, right . Youre talking 6 to 8 yields on most of these securities and that represents real opportunity for investors. Any institutions in particular . You know, i would stick from different banks are in different phases of where they need to go. The swiss bank has done quite a lot. Clearly, Deutsche Bank needs to do more. I think you want to stick with the banks that are going through the process, but have done enough where they can focus on raising Equity Capital or trimming back compensation in order to build the capital that they need on their balance sheets. Thats an opportunity in high yield. You also say japan is the biggest swing factor for u. S. Assets. Just explain that. I would have thought the u. S. Economy is the biggest swing factor. Sure. So we all know that japan is very focused on reigniting their economy and getting to spof inflation. The past years efforts are starting to pay some fruit. Going forward, investors in japan who have historically invested, 50 of their money is sitting in the bank earning zeros. Theyre not going to be happy when their money goes from zero percent to plus two. Is it going to go to that, plus two . Its certainly gone to plus one and their state objective is to hit plus two. Lets say theyre successful. Youre not going to want to have your money sitting in the bank if youre a japanese investor. Your going to want to look for return. Will be in the nondenominated fixed assets. I think theyre going the buy u. S. Assets. In fact, the Japanese Companies themselves are starting to buy u. S. Assets. Yeah. Sprint, you had beams being bought this past week. It will be more expensive if the yen keeps weakening, though. Buy while its still cheap. Good to see you. Thanks for joining us. Thank you very much. Jpmorgan has reportedly dropped work on another chinese ipo amid practices in the country. They were hoping to go ahead with a 1 billion offering this year. Jpmorg jpmorgans exit was prompted by its concerns about the choice of wei. Wei worked from jpmorgan from joorn 2012 until last awl august and now works ford u. P. S. Jp morgan chase, pretty flat. Farm goers reportedly banned staffers from their own money. The Financial Times suggests that wells code of ethics says employees shouldnt invest in privately held businesses which compete with the bank which could cause a conflict of interest. Well take a short break. Still to come, off the back of an earnings beat, well bring you my fist interview with unilever ceo paul tollman. Unilever has rrtd better than expected results. I caught up with paul polman and the ceo of unilever. He told me he was pretty pleased. There are headwinds on the currency webs but the underlying sales growth is up 4. 3 , which is very competitive for us. We also have another year of profitable growth, core operating margin up 40 basis points, so that is four years now of top and bottom line growth, profitable, consistent and competitive. These have been achieved despite the slowdown in emerging markets. Emerging markets used to go at the composite of 6 to 7 . Its now more 5 to 6 . We have to deal with that. You saw china again this morning in the papers probably going more towards 7 growth rate. Admittedly on a larger base, but that is what it is. We have seen b a significant slowdown for growth in major markets like understand meesh ya, south africa, brazil where we have strong currencies. You talk about currency depreciation. Does that have a direct impact on consumer demand . Over time, it might. What happens with a lot of these countries when you see a 20 to 30 devaluation, you obviously import inflation. That will have a dampening effect on markets over time. You deal with that by not fully pricing for that inflation and thats why you see a still healthy growth rate. Our emerging markets have been growing at nearly 8 again and this is now for the fifth year in a row that we significantly outgrow these emerging markets. That just doesnt happen by itself. Its a lot of hard work from a lot of people. And we will continue to do that. In your report, you also talk about this ongoing volatility in this external environment. Explain exactly what that looks like and how you manage it. Well, ive often called it the xlix and ambiguous. Never have you seen so many changes. The world has become a very interdependent technology, the financial world, and its a very difficult world. You see it on the geopolitical front. Never have you seen so many issues emerging or popping up in different parts of the world, people speaking up and causing uncertainties. Stock markets moving up and down, currency markets we just talk moving up and down. Its a very volatile environment to do business in. Paul polman talking to me. Well take a closer look at those results with max king in around ten minutes or so. Other earnings out today, alstom has lowered its annual profit target blaming a slowdown in orders in thermal power. I dont like it when we get bad news in paris. Stephane has more. Its a pretty big share back, stephane, 11 1 . Absolutely. As of this morning, they shared a warning. Around 7 for the physical year, down 2 from last year. For the next year, alstom is targeting lower margins. Thats for the next two to three years to come. It explains its facing weaker demand and believes it will remain so in the shortterm. Its order intake declined by sorry, grew 11 in the Third Quarter, but its only due to the transport division. Its still down 12 on the first nine months of the year. Also this morning this is drawing my attention. This morning, they posted very negative results for the Third Quarter of its fiscal year. Thats because of china. And the company to promote in china is having a negative impact on the sale of Premium Products and thats the case for the cognac made by the company. The cognac reported a the 2 decline in the Third Quarter. Its not speccing any recovery in china in the shortterm, not even for the crucial period of the new year. As a result, the company confirmed its guidance for significant double digit decline in full year operating profits. The Market Reaction was very negative at the start of trading. Its improving slightly now. All right, stephane, thank you. Sap Software Giant said its going to delay reaching its investment goal because of china. What are the investments theyre making . Well, theyre investing in the Cloud Business saying that is what no, not investors, but customers want because more and more customers would like to have used the software of sap and, therefore, they need more cloud storage. So that is what they are doing and that is costing a lot of money and that is why they are pushing gold to reach a 35 profit margin operating profit margin, i should say, to 2017 is. What is new also is they are setting a new R

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