Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20140530 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange May 30, 2014

To buy the l. A. Clippers. And investors dont sell in may, european stocks are ending the month near their best levels in more than six years, boosted by another record close on wall street. Youre watching Worldwide Exchange, bringing you Business News from around the globe. Welcome to Worldwide Exchange again. Lets get to one of our top stories, straight away, shares in pnb paribas tumbling after a wall street journal reports that the french lender could be hit with a 10 billion fine over allegations it evaded u. S. Sanctions against a number of countries, including iran. In the last few minutes the bank of france says its following the case very closely. Stephan is in paris. This dwarfs the amount of provisions theyve made. My key concern is what this could mean for the operations in the u. S. Going forward potentially, too. First of all, lets put the numbers into perspective. Youre right, 10 billion, much higher than what bnp paribas reported as profit. Its already much higher than the provision that the bank took in the last quarter last year, 1. 1 billion to cover potential sanctions in the united states, according to the wall street journal. The bank still negotiates with the department of justice in hopes to pay no more than 8 billion in that case. Thats for the fine but also bnp paribas could plead guilty. Thats for the request from the department of justice. The bank could lose its license in the united states, leaving it unable to transfer money in and out of the country. Bnp paribas is owner of bank quest in the united states. The tarring set to reach 12 in 2016. That was obviously before that story in the united states. Bnp still declines to comment on the report. Two weeks ago, the ceo told the shareholders of the bank that bnp paribas would face this difficult situation. Julia, at the time we were mentioning 5 billion u. S. Dollars for the fine, 10 billion u. S. Dollars. These amounts have not been confirmed. It seems to be consistent with what we heard, not only from the wall street journal but other sources close to the negotiations. Over to you. Thanks so much, stephan. Well check in with you later on that story. Up 0. 2 precious yearonyear, following a rise of 0. 3 back in april. Spains main index fell 0. 3 on the news. Now with the ecb widely expected to take action at the june meeting next week, speculation surrounds the exact measures that mario draghi may use. Narrowing of the rate corridor, targeted rtos and positive deposit rates. James, good morning. Good morning. Never mind inflation, the lending data yesterday. What have we got . Bank lending to the private sector is contracted for 24 straight months. Irrespective of whats going on in the Inflation Fund they have to be addressing this surely. Absolutely. Its abysmal. How do you free up credit flows to particularly smes. The Inflation Numbers are pointing the same direction as well. All the data essentially signalling that the ecb needs to do something. Going into next weeks meeting, the market is very much expecting action. The question is what form will the action take . Answer the question. The way theyve been talking recently suggests that its very much a possibility that we could see that. It would not be a major surprise. Well see liquidity measures, suspend measures, like a targeted ero. Theyre a bit more complex and require more logistical organization. We should expect them but perhaps not next week. Well be talking about the impact on the banks of these measures and whether or not it does have the required effect as far as lending. Do you think it will . If the ecb had one that it could wave and everything would be fine, it would have waved it by now. It doesnt have that. Yes, they will aid credit flows, boost inflation a little but its not going to certainly miraculously make the economic problems and the financial problems go away. This is a deep prolonged issue that the ecb will have to address. I wonder if it helps the banks, given the fact that theyre deleveraging continues to give them support and theyre continue to do what their doing. Im not sure it supports lending. The illegal drug and sex trade are expected to boost the uk economy by nearly 10 billion pounds come september. The uk will join a number of eu countries changing the way they measure gdp to conclude unique way of boosting gdp growth in europe . It is interesting, yes. The key point to recognize its not the job of statisticians or economists to dictate what should or should not be in the national accounts. The job of statistician reflects the underlying economy. Theirs is a statistics job pure and simple. Isnt there an incentive problem here, though . Arent some of these things things wed like to crack down on . Absolutely. But thats a moral judgment. Some people would like us to say crack down on gambling. But we dont necessarily do that. Society does that. The argument thats being advanced is these or other activities shouldnt be treated differently. The more interesting point, yes, this is an interesting hook to get people interested in the changes. This in the uk will add around 0. 7 to gdp. Its part of a broader arrange of changes of its an interesting element, a real talking point. The more interesting fact lies elsewhere in mundane changes. But they are economically speaking more significant. The important appoint as well is that it puts us in line with other countries in the eu. This is not about the uk going, fan, lets readjust how were calculating gdp. This is coordinating, making sure you have comparable data across economies within europe. Come september well see a much wider range of changes being implemented. Lets talk about the uk economy this week. Weve seen slightly weaker housing data, raising a few questions. They said yesterday we were seeing a softening trend in london. Do you think this is a good thing . Yes. At the moment weve been heading towards the point where the ftc was likely to initiate measures, trying to cool the Housing Market. The fact that were seeing tentative slowdown in the Housing Market perhaps theres a need for that immediately and it will take some of the heat out of it. From an economists perspective, a moderation in the pace of housing activity is probably quite a good thing. The treasury figures are out. The government is impacting prices right now. This actually propping up the property market, giving them access. Some would argue the government has stimulated prices, too. The government as a whole has had positive impact in terms of raising prices and stimulating activity in the Housing Market. A couple years ago, that might have been a good thing. That might have been an intentional policy objective. Right now i think it would be sensible to peare that back a little. The first contraction in three years. Steve liesman caught up with the richmond fed president and asked if he is concerned about the latest figures. Not unexpected given the data flow wed seen since the first release. Not too concerned. There are transitory factors that are clearly in play that will reverse and unwind in the Second Quarter. If this is all weather . If this is all weather, why couldnt we quote, unquote, forecast it . Ive seen evidence of the weather effect. Thats not it. There were a lot of temporary things. You had inventories, net exports, weak, depennsylvania spending falling off. You had a bunch of things contributing. What kind of bounceback are you talking about . I think the broader question is, whats the longer end trend in this economy . A year or two ago i came around to the position that the 2 growth weve gotten since mid09 is the growth well get. Im still forecasting 2 to 2. 5 in the year beyond that. I know weve been thinking that growth would pick up to 3 or 4 . Now were not going to know until the Fourth Quarter. The Second Quarter data is going to be polluted from the bounce back in the weak first quarter. We wont know until we have a sustainable evaluation. It wouldnt surprise me at all. Youre in that camp of people who believe longterm growth is what, to a percentage point lower than we previously believed . It is. You have a lagging Labor Force Participation rate. The cyclical effects have warn off. You have head winds making a lot of firms reluctant to make any commitments on hiring or spending before they see the need for it rather than anticipation of the need for it, as would have been typical in a previous expansion. Yes, growth is just lower now as a matter of trend. Steve continues coverage from stanford university. Hell be speaking with Philadelphia Fed president charles plosser. Later in the evening hell catch up with the boss of the San Francisco fed, john williams. That will be at 7 30 cet. Lets take a look at the european markets this morning, evenly split between the gainers and losers. Leaving the stoxx 600 relatively unchanged. A number of investors were out yesterday, despite the markets being open. You have to wonder whether thats leading the low volumes in the sentiment today. The mixed bag, the ftse losing a bit of ground right now, the xetra dax relatively unchanged. The cac current, bnp dragging that market down. Was it a sell in may and go away . Not really. The dax, the real outperformer, 3. 5 higher in trading. That of course 1. 7 this week. Quite a lot of the gains weve seen as far as the core markets happening in the last few sessions. The ftse mib down by 0. 9 on the month so far. Lets have a look at the yeartodate performance. The italian market supported by the gains that weve seen this week after 3. 5 following the election victory on friday. Quick check on the Foreign Exchange markets. Last trading session of the month. That could mean a weaker dollar. That does tend to see what were seeing in the session. It is bouncing around that level. The imf in the earliest part of the session saying they believe the currency brought in line with fundamentals right now. They want more clarity on that bond buying program. Lets take a quick look at theation markets for this month in particular, too. The focus on the nikkei, just over 2. 2 bounce. This month, i believe this is the first monthly gain for the nikkei in what, five months . Yes, thats right. And also what we are seeing right now, julia, a little bit of giveback and the nikkei breaking a sixday winning streak. I would suspect its down to whats been happening in the currency markets. That correlation between equities and fx is still quite strong here. Weve seen a snap back in the yen. Slightly stronger japanese currency is undermuning some of the exporters and by implication the broader markets as well. The unflags numbers seem to be moving in the right direction. Its probably the impact of the sales tax hike. Strip all that away and it looks as if the bank of japan and governor kuroda still have work to do to get closer to that 2 annual inflation target. We could in all likelihood still see further stimulus action from the boj. Let me talk about some of the underperformers here, the jakarta composite is down by 1 . A lot of foreign selling here, especially in the big blue chips. Perhaps the market is trying to front load the data next monday. This coming monday i should say we get the trade balance numbers and the expectations pointing towards 400 million deficit in the month of april. Staying in southeast asia, thailand, having a reasonably good day today, up almost 1 , despite the fact that we got Economic Data for the month of april that was quite negative. Really reflecting the impact of all the political unrest thats culminated, of course, last week in martial law and the declaration of a coup by the military. That is all having a very adverse effect on Consumer Sentiment. Youre seeing that in the dropoff of the import numbers especially in the month of april. It will probably get worse. Remember this economy is teetering towards recession. The markets seem to be shrugging all of this off. The military council have appointed economic advisers and theyve been paying the farmers and amongst those advisers is former central banker. They are getting down to the tax of economic management. Still, a big unknown as to when elections will take place. Another big unknown is when they are going to make that transition towards civil rule. Thats where we stand right now. Julia, back to you right now. Sri, thanks very much. Also on todays show, are the markets set for Stormy Weather . As Hurricane Season kicks off state side, a look at how investors are gambling on the sun and room. Elan musk unveils the latest spacecraft design to take you to the stars. And cnbc joins the fitness frenzy, well, some of us do anyway. We speak to the ceo of u. S. Gym group anytime fitness, all coming up later in the show. See you in two. Youre watching Worldwide Exchange. Former microsoft ceo Steve Ballmer reached a deal to buy the Los Angeles Clippers for 2 billion. That would be the most ever paid for an nba franchise. The Milwaukee Bucks sold for 550 million earlier this month. Shelly sterling, the wife of owner Donald Sterling signed a contract which she sent to the nba League Office for approval. At least 75 of owners must approve the sale. Its unclear whether Donald Sterling must also sign off on it. Nba owners are set to vote tuesday on whether to terminate sterlings ownership after he was banned for life in the wake of a tape released of him making racist comments. Elan musk takes the wraps off a new spacecraft designed to carry up to seven astronauts into the International Space station. He unveiled the coneheaded rocket dubbed the dragon v2 last night. Now switching to politics, hot off the heels of the European Election victory, farage. I havent got a problem with romanians but i have a massive problem with romania. Can you imagine if a known organized criminal gang got off the plane at jfk airport and tried to get into your country, would you let them . No. Of course not. Claude moret joins me now in the studio. Claude, good morning. Tony blair said this week, former Prime Minister, of course, that ed milliband must not allow an eu referendum. Do you agree with him . I think it was a good int intervention and it would stiffen our resolve to really go on the attack. On the one hand, you could cause a schism in british politics. We have to take note of it and understand it and react. Theres no question of that. Not have a Populous Party in politics. We didnt have to react to it or factor in exactly what it means but its complex. Here in london, for example, in the European Elections, labor took half the its a complex picture. How do you attack it . You should you should attack. How do you attack it . A place like london needs immigration. We have to explain that to people. Its a contradictory message. And perhaps its proxy for other things, housing shortages, undercutting of wages. We need to be clear now because were in that ballpark, ballpark of finding out what this means. If this goes on, National Politics will be damaged, not european politics. Do you expect David Camerons party in particular to be drawn in some way . Its at the National Level now that it matters. What this means is the margin of seats. Thats really whats going to happen in the general election. Its about National Politics. In the european parliament, it matters, too. But not as much as a National Politics where these types of populous parties all over the European Union push center parties to the right. And thats the problem across the eu. It was before you, kip, had them. How much do you think british people care about the eu. For the labor party, ordinary british people, if its about jobs, stability, the city of london, if its about all of that, then i want to be in the European Union and labor party saying that. I think thats a good message. Do you think that message is translating given the gains weve seen for you, kip, at the latest European Elections . Do you believe that message translates . I think theres a distinct difference in europe on the one hand and europe itself. The institutions have been denigrated for years. Anyone in the city thats watching this, the benefits from the European Union need to sit up and take notice. Were losing the argument. Should british people be denied any referendum . We are saying that you have a referendum if theres a treaty change. There may well be treaty change if we end up with banking union. Of course, well have to have a referendum but were not going to pick data out of the air like they have done 2017 because they want to keep their party together. Everyone in the city knows that. We are for stability, for being serious about europe. Because we want to be in. Thats the point. Now, you, kip, are going to push all of that into a difficult position and, yes, it will be a tough road. Not only do we need to take sides, we need to reform by the way. How big is the risk that you can get stronger support at the general election next year . The problem is how big do you quantify the risk . This risk is this, they make hay in marginal seats and take down the conservatives and change british politics that way nobody the by getting mps because i fear they wont get many mps. Thank you, claude. For the first time in 52 years, two kids have been declared cochamps of the annual Scripps National spelling bee. They are sharing the title involving a final round dual on thursday night in which they nearly exhausted the 25 designated championship words. The door was opened to an upset when he miss spelled a word. He couldnt capitalize,

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