Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20141209 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange December 9, 2014

Outside the United States, is this the time for more hawkish tone for the fed . Tthe wall street journal reporting that is what we will get from the fomc next week. Another profit warning for tesco sends the shares in london sharply lower in trade. Announcer youre watching worldwide exchange, bringing you Business News from around the globe. Its been a roller coaster session for chinese stocks with the shanghai composite and shenzhen heading lower. The selloff appears to have come amid media reports the countrys leadership is setting the stage for lower growth as it meets today. The peoples daily running with a headline warning that a high growth was the, quote, new normal. Care horry, thanks for joining us. Lets kick off with china. An extraordinary move today. Is this based on the headline that they might cut to 7 . I dont think that a slowing china is news to anyone. Weve seen this happen in athens this year. Its clear that theyre going towards an economy that is more consumption. The problem theyre having is trying to find a balance to growth with transition. I think the pullback you see in the market today really is due to the fact it rose by 20 in the last few days and theyre basically taking a little bit off the top. Its not to do with the shanghai connect. You havent seen the volumes passing through there. Kerry, you could argue the gains weve seen, up 25 , theyre too optimistic in the first place because that really was built on shaky fundamentals. That was on expectations of further easing. When the pboc cut rates last month, they actually said this wasnt a policy shift. No, because it had been in the background for many months now. Theyve been doing all these targeted measures to try and ease the slowdown in the housing market, theyve been saying theyre doing these things all the time. All this did, the rate cut, was in the forward domain. The expectations further in the new year, the Monetary Policy easing will become easier as they try and keep growth at a certain level while they adjust their economy. Kerry, do you think this is the end of the chinese rally, then, or is this a brief breather, if you will, people take process right now and trying to allocate money for 2015 . I think this is actually exactly that. People are just saying the rally has gone too far, taking it off the top. I think you would expect that when the market moves quickly. People are really moving into the things that they think are going to be supported by the government and through the infrastructure because they know that investment has to come through that while theyre trying to balance their growth. So i think its just a tackling china in a different way, moving what the from it being a manufacturing country in terms of health care, technology, and in terms of environment, improvement. You need to focus on emerging markets in a different way now. Emerging markets has been favored by this for a long time. But they still form the fundamental base. Kerry, what is the big move today in the r b, 0. 5 decline which is the biggest decline since 2008. It was only a couple of years ago that we thought the only way was up in the r b. Are they going to be seriously under pressure as the u. S. Dollar continues to strengthen . I think you will see more liberalization Going Forward. China is opening up its economy, its opening up its Financial System. I would expect to see more fluctuations. You wont see just a oneway bit as many traders head throughout this year. I think the strengthening dollar is going to have a big impact in the year on many economies, not just china. Thank you for that. Well be back in the next half hour. The world bank has cut its forecast for russian Economic Growth for 2015. It is now expected to contract 0. 7 in 2015 accordsing to the world bank. That is the base case scenario. The assumption is for an average oil price of 70 per barrel for 2014 and 08 per barrel for 2016. You could argue even this is a little too optimistic. Probably not big given all the pressure from sanctions and falling oil prices. Carolin, thank you. Dont forget yesterday, the oil price declined and that helped the u. S. Market decline. Asia has declined and europe has declined, too. The stoxx europe 600 is now down 1. 25 . Markets globally in the last 24 hours have been in the red. But when you take a step back, it does just point to the fact that these are strong markets throughout 2014 and all the risk assetes have come off in the last 24 hours. The stoxx 50 down just a little bit more than the stoxx 600. Greece down 6. 5 . The u. S. , 2. 26 . We have had the opposite of that risk off rate. U. S. Yields down to 2. 26 . The tenyear in germany is ticking back to 0. 8 , back you to 0. 7 . And the uk back to 0. 2 . Greece is now at 7. 7 . Once dpen, very high yields. Thats moving in the opposite direction for the rest of the bond yields as is calls for the early president ial selection and in particular whether that president ial election could lead to the Prime Minister having to call early parliamentary elections. Lets look at forex and the u. S. Dollar giving up a little bit of ground today. Thats contrary to what we would expect on a risk off environment. Thats because yesterday the broader index hit a fiveyear high, giving up 30 basis points against the ur roy, 1. 2358. The yen moved incredibly sharply to the down side recently. Russia continues to suffer from Oil Price Declines and oil has declined again today. It declined about 4 yesterday and slightly smaller declines so far today. It doesnt look like were going to see commodities. We will move on from that. Here we go. Weve got it. Weve got it. Theyve essentially bounced back over todays trade. That is back today. Brent declined quite sharply yesterday. The latest on tesco which, again, this morning, shocked investors by bringing out its fourth profit warning in a year. The tesco ceo saying in koorchbs call hes quite optimistic about what the firm is doing and says they have started to rebase, the ceo saying were not walking away from rebates with our suppliers. Wruns again, tesco is down heavily, 12 . Down by as much as 14 many 5 yesterday. Another big commodity in focus is oil. The price in oil weighing on support that the fed could signal theyre ready to start hiking Interest Rates in 2015 when they meet next week. The fomc could drop their longheld pledge to keep rates low for some time. Some have hinted recently theyre looking at shedding the closely watched signal. There could still be debate at the meeting. Dennis lockhart said monday hes not in a rush to drop the phrase. So the guessing games continue. Lets bring back in kerry craig. My big question is if the fed is perhaps looking to raise rates in 2015, the fed has a dual mandate. It has to see an acceleration in jobs growth. Given the tumbling price of oil, thats weighing on headline inflation. How can we even talk about the federationing rates when right now inflation is not at the target that its looking at . Monetary policy down the line, that is being very clear. Theyve been talking about Energy Prices in their previous statements. Theyre saying theyre going to look through the knew term volatility. They look at their core pce measure that pitch and consumption and thats the thing that they really want to focus on. That doesnt have such a big impact on the oil. And they also look at the fact that theyre going to see a labor market that is tightening so much. Jobs have gone up 240,000 a month this year. The Unemployment Rate is tightening. Theres less slack in the market. This suggests you will see wage pressure start to build in the new year and Inflationary Pressure will start to build up. Theyre saying actually the economy isnt sick, it doesnt need policy rates any more, we can start to normalize that policy. Weve gone through this discussion time and time again. The fed has rebeet petedly said were not the central bank of the world, were the of the United States of america. Its the only one tightening. The rest of the world is still easing growth and the rest of the world is still very poor. Why should it tighten . It needs policy for its own country. Theyre looking very much at what the u. S. Needs. Theyve been criticized in the past for leaving Monetary Policy too loose, creating asset bubbles that did develop n past. 2004 had being a recent example. Thats when you get that expectation of a sixmonth increase afterwards. They know 24e6 to start monetizing policy earlier especially if they want to follow a path that is slow and gradual, not to upset equity markets in the long run. What is the biggest driver at the moment, is it that i think its the u. S. Economy is the strongest economy in the Global Economy right now. Thats whats driving the dollar up. There has been some concerns over the second half of this year about weakness in the yen, weakness in the euro and the u. S. Is looking like the best fit. Kerry, thank you. Well talk to you about your best picks for 2015 coming up in a bit. Tesco may be having major trouble in the uk, but that is not the case for some of its rival chess benefited from the latest u. S. Import black friday. In just one hour, we look at amazon plans for new york shoppers. And beyonce, daisy, chelsea clinton, president obama, its not a night out with wilfred frost, but just some of the people meeting will and kate. We will bring you something from their visit over the next two hours. Cute little guy, huh . This guy could take down your entire company. Stay with me. On thursday a hamster video goes online. On friday it goes viral a network choking phenomenon. Why do you care . Hes on the same cloud as your business. The more hits he gets, the slower your business may get. Do you want to share your cloud with a hamster . Today theres a new way to work. And its made with ibm. Welcome back. Lets look at individual stock movers today. Unsurprisingly, the stock reacting towards that mark, down 5. 15 . For more on the store, lets join stephane in paris. Good morning, wilfred. Its the end of the euroneck adventure for ice. I. C. E. Bought nyce next year but wasnt planning to keep the European Assets of the country. At the time, i. C. Kept a stake in the company, but wasnt planning to remain a shareholder on the longterm. This morning, i. C. E. Announced a 6 stake on euroneck. After the placement, ice will no longer hold any stake in the company. Shame shares of euronext on currency trading slightly higher than the basement price at 23 euros 40 almost. Thats more than a 5 decline compared to yesterday. Moving on, the ceo of se siemens says that business could get a hit if rates continue to stay lower. Stay tuned, well speak to the ceo at mid day of siemenses usa. Its was down as much as 14 , now down as much as 1 1. 6 . Its at a 12yee year low. Doesnt see proovts exceeding 1. 4 billion pounds. The ceo of tesco making some statements. We want to get you those headlines. The ceo of tesco saying were quietly optimistic about whapt firm is doing. The ceo says they have started to rebase a relationship we have with supplieres and that not walking away from rebates with suppliers and that were seeing encouraging signs from selective price cuts, this despite tesco issuing its forth profit warning of the year. As a ceo, what are you trying to do than try to maintain confidence of your investor base. He says tesco is no longer a viable investment and theyre still clearing their positions this morning. Why would you have bought in september . I wonder whether this could go down, flushing out mistakes . Why didnt he do that a month ago . This recent announcement has to be on his hands and because you he didnt know. And maybe in the meantime the environment has come to light. The sfo is carrying out criminal investigations into the accounting irregular layerties. Some of the investors in the uk are looking for those who were involved in the accounting issues still to go through some accountability. We havent heard of that. Advertiseco, the Athens Stock Exchange is sliding on the back of new Political Uncertainty in greece today. Off 6. 7 , a big decline in athens. Greece is heading to the polls to elect ultimately could lead to the election of alexis tisboro next year. Samras hopes he can regain momentum in the polls. But if samras fail toes win enough support for his candidate, a general election could be called at the beginning of february. The risk will continue to threaten. That guest is kerry craig from jpmorgan asset management. Were seeing deflationary policies president wouldnt you think those would trump the deflationary trend . I think the value, the fall in the oil price so far, how drastic its been, would you consider offsetting the impact in the fall in the eurozone. Especially that Inflationary Pressure is very much there. I think looking into the next few months in the eurozone, very low levels already, how investors are going to stimulate the eyb to take further action. That is really going to drive sentiment towards the eurozone. I think even though the Growth Outlook for the eurozone is not great, deflation is still very much there, the fact that you have this Massive Organization and the ecb standing to do something and beelg very vocal about what theyre going to do is provide a boost for european markets. So youre expect ago recovery in 2015 and a significant depreciatation in the euro, even though its down about 10 against the u. S. Dollar. What skters do you think are going to benefit the most . Forecasts have been down if youre getting more than 1 growth out of forecasts next year. But you are getting growth. I think you want to be based towards the cyclicals of the economy. Assets have improved quality review in the Financial Sector. I think theres some good stories that can come through there. At the same time, the low oil price is going to help consumers around the world. Its being driven by an increase in supply. This will help the consumer in europe. That is why you want to be in those consumer stocks. As you see an increase in growth rates, Financial Sector is going to improve from there. I think there are concerns ab t aboabou about and on a stock by stock basis, it will waiver. Certainly theres going to be pockets that suffer. Traditionally, emerging markets when the dollar is strengthen. The countries that are strngtenning are going to be more in supply with the Global Supply chain. Those are the countries that are going to benefit because theyre demanding more imports. Other economies are thog those reliant on foreign dollars. Kerry craig, thank you very much for joining us this morning. Amazon is bringing onehour delivery to the big apple. The wall street journal says the online retailer is testing the service in new york with bike messengers. Amazon is reportly using its new space near the Empire State Building as a base for service. Amazon is warning the faa it may shift drone testing outside the u. S. The Company Warns regulators to connect more outdoor trials. Amazon aims to deliver packages in 30 minutes or less. Trading in germany off by more than 1 . Wilfred, i know youre looking for a dreen to be under the Christmas Tree this year, right . A incorporator, which is that model that we tried out last friday. But it does cost 1,069 pounds. I know. Im surprised the drone is doing so well this holiday season. Snapchat has reportedly hired a star tag banker away from Credit Suisse to help the company justify its billion dollar valuation. It has brought in khan to be its chief officer. Khan helped Credit Suisse win advising rolls on alibaba. The journal says snapchat, which has been valued at 10 billion is looking to hire its first cfo. Carolin and wilfred, are you big fans of snapchat . Im not. My niece and nephew, thats all they talk about these days. Kind of phased out . You have instagram, though. Im a fan of instagram, fan of twitter and i love facebook. Just to get you some news on the cloud space, rack space staged a comeback in november. Take a three chart. Its almost 20 over what has been a volatile year in the industry. I spoke to the ceo with smaller players looking to go public. If you think b about a box or a drop box, lots of those companies are a Service Company. Were a Service Company at heart. When new tellings are coming out in the market, we get a chance to integrate those into our service. If a customer wants to use a service technology, we put it into a market and manage it for them. Ear in europe, theres been a lot of talk about the role that tech Multi Nationals play in europe. The European Parliament has pushed for the breakup of google. Does that scare you as a Multi National looking to strengthen your presence in europe . Of course. We are watching to see what new data laws or taxes are doing. The ability to compete at scale in the european markets. We would prefer to see governments take a business Friendly Technology friendly policy. Technology creates gdp essentially, especially when you can deliver it this a costeffective way. So we think its in the governments best interest to promote Technology Friendly policies. Are you bullish about europe . I think so. I think its here. It will take more time to play out. We certainly hope and feel like the worst is behind uts. Still to come on the show, the fallen oil extending em currencies to multi year lows. Whats the best way to play that market . Well be back in two. Chinese stocks finish the session with biggest losses since 2009. Reports suggest the government will cut its growth target to 7 for 2015. Heavy falls for stocks in athens on news the Prime Minister has brought forward a vote for the next president which could open the way for the radical left to take control of grooets early next year. Gi

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