Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20150330 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange March 30, 2015

Nations to say theyll join beijing despite u. S. Warnings. Good morning youre watching Worldwide Exchange. The Business Confident rising to 103. 7 versus consensus 99. 8 and better than expected. This is a rise in all fronts. The march overall Business Confidence index rising to 103. Consumer confidence that index has risen to 110. Back in line with expectations and this is versus february of 107 rises in the month of february. Lets have a look how the euro dollar is trading this morning. A little bit much pressure as a result of the uncertainty around the greek story. Euro dollar changing hands at 108. 30. Were down by a half of 1 . The story has been the strengthening of the euro over the past couple of days. Its come off the highs. It did reach 110 last week it was a twoweek high against the dollar. Take a step back and look at the euro it lost about 20 some analysts say. A big boost for export growth here. Absolutely. A lot of question marks. And our guest later on in the show david bloum from hsbc said it is the end of the bull run party. Well ask why in a couple of minutes. Air strikes in yemen laud by saudi arabia overnight left 25 people dead and 88 wounded. According to the Health Ministry area of the nation. Saudi arabia Still Deciding whether to send ground tops to yemen. Speaking to meet the press, the countrys ambassador said saudi arabia was committed to completing the air campaign until the president was back in power. Meanwhile former afghan President Hamid karzai said the use of force will not resolve the situation in yemen. He spoke to cnbc. I hope this whole unfortunate situation in yemen will be resolved through talk and negotiations rather than. Weve seen it in afghanistan, weve seen it in other parts of the world. Military rarely rarely brings about solutions. Especially where there are people involved in a country and there are sentiments on both sides. We have the example in some western countries have called war on terrorism for the last so many years. Eventually it is taking negotiations to take things to settle. Thats what im hoping for in yemen. The new president of afghanistan, mr. Ghani, was recently in the United States as you know it was almost a revelation when he said that is Islamic State is starting to make incursions into your country, afghanistan. Theyre sending forward troops or forces. What can you tell us about the situation now with regard to is in afghanistan . Because youre six months out of office but obviously youre on top of the situation there. Terrorism radicalism and the associated element of insecurity that come with it. No matter the name they come al qaeda or isis or any other name occurs to all of us. My experience shows that such troops organizations with extreme radical ideologies and brutality on their mind and on their hands will not be able to operate. Cannot operate without backers. I dont buy the idea they have their own revenues. Adding to the chaos in yemen six world powers to reach a nuclear deal. The two sides continue talks in switzerland over the weekend but so far unable to agree in a number of key issues including how many years tehran should suspend the nuclear work. Israel and republican lawmakers warned against a deal with iran. No surprise there. Hadley our middle eastern correspondent joins us with more. How close are we to a deal . We have the selfimposed deadline in two days. Are they going to make it . I think theyre working hard to make it. What is going to be interesting is the framework they get. What you is here is not just the republicans in congress but Many Democrats want to be involved in property says. Theyll do anything to do that. Two pieces of legislation one of which coming up in shortly in april is backed by democrats and republicans. It would allow congress to put a hold on everything and say we dont like the agreement. We can disagree with you about basically lifting sanctions. Thats Something Congress can do. They can make it very difficult and possibly at least put the brake on any deal Going Forward. Thats a problem. How much is the saudiled air strikes complicate the situation more. Its interesting to watch what is happening here. You have the United States working on the, you know, deal with iran and something unprecedented. Something that 30 years ago you wouldnt have majd would be possible. On the other hand theyre not only allowing the saudis and the rest of the gulf countries with egypt to do the strikes in yemen and be forceful but theyre supporting it. You have them playing both sides of the issue. In the middle east as we say strange bedfellows it makes sense but it is a bit distressing for most americans. What is more dangerous now . What is more dangerous terrorism . Nuclear issues . Its difficult for people to get a handle on the situation. The other question is will saudi arabia send Ground Troops to yemen or not . They refused to say whether theyre going to do it yet. You have to remember its something weve been talking about for a couple of days. To them its their issue of security. They dont want the area to be taken over by iranbacked troops of any variety. So for them its a security issue more than anything else. Look around the border they have what is happening in iraq what is worrying about as well. It plays into the oil prices what we saw happen on thursday. You saw the new spike and down again. What we were talking about over the last couple of hours is essentially what you have here is a situation a lot of unknown knowns. You know its going to be bad you just dont know how bad it will be in terms of the regional conflict. Inevitably inevitably, one i think the United States can look to they have forces in the persian gulf. Were there to be a scenario if they need to protect the oil fields. But its just difficult to assess right now where we are. And fears of an Oil Supply Disruption that initially sent Prices Higher on thursday. They came off the highs on friday. A weekly gain for the price of oil. Thank you for your update. French oil giant has evacuated expatriot staff from the career sites in yemen. The locations have not yet been impacted by military raids. Gas production has been reduced to only supply neighboring communities. They said that staff at the lng plant has been reduced to the minimum necessary. And lets turn our attention to greece. The country said talks with International Creditors are ongoing though a deal remains elusive. Athens submitted a collection of reform ideas rather than a concrete set of proposals. A list is expected today. There is speculation suggesting april 20th is the day greece officially runs out of cash. Others says it is april 9th. A look at the athens stockings change down by 1. 2 . David, a pleasure speaking with you. What is really feeding into the Euro Dollar Exchange rate . Is it the greek worries or just all ecb and qe . Well, now its neither because its going up. The euro is trying to find a base now having been at 105 and slightly below 110. Its settling down trying to find the right base. As you said at the top of the show you talked about the dollar bull run. An internet dollar bull run. We did so a week ago. I know but you said a further rise in the Dollar Exchange rate if it were to happen would be instructive. Tell us why. I think a dollar rally from here, a powerful dollar rally would be destructive. So far its been a thing of beauty. Its been associated with stronger equity in the u. S. Lower bonds doing well assets like property doing well. The dollar was a medium of exchange in which beautiful. Now we talk about the situations worries about result worries about greece. Was the dollar going to rally. Something is going to go wrong somewhere. Thats a destructive dollar rally. I cant see the dollar rallying from here for beautiful reasons associated with all assets going up. If youre odd dollar bullish you have to ask questions. What is my asset elevation choice . Its a nasty business. Weve seen the stronger dollar pulling down equities in the u. S. Thats part of the zektive dollar. Imagine another 20 . When will they raise rates . Theres speculation it could be delayed to 2016. If thats the case what happens to the dollar then . If we wait to 2016 ill be licking my chops. But thats not what were looking for. We think september is most likely. Weve seen the market go june october, now probably september. A delay works in my favor. Its not something im calling for but you excited me. David, the market seems less concerned about a potential greek exit. Youre looking at the euro stock 600 index better than 50 percent year to date. Focus on the benefits of the weaker euro and the manufacturing data came out last week. Can qe and the rebound in growth offset the negative implication of a potential cigarette district . No. Were in a new ball game. I dont like talking about it. As you know loose lips sink ships. So i dont believe in it. I dont believe it will happen. If it happens its a complete gamechanger. I think it would be destructive for Financial Markets regardless of anything. But i dont actually believe thats going to happen. Otherwise i wouldnt be calling it into the dollar bull run it would be potentially, as i said you want the dollar to go up. Be careful what you wish for. Thats a destructive reason. But that would be potentially devastating, i think, to Financial Markets and i dont believe its anyones interest and i dont think that is going to happen. Okay. David, weve established you have the con trarn call. Youre no longer a believer in the continued bull run of the dollar. What about market consensus. It seems the market too, is getting a little bit fatigued by that dollar bull run story by the weakness in the euro. Maybe the strength in european equities. What are the new consensus trades for the Second Quarter, you think. Its one of the reasons we turned against the dollar. It became massively consensus. To the point where people were having an arms race to get a lower euro dollar forecast. You hear 90, 85, and now 80. Thats wrong. Thats like the end of a bull market rather than anything else. And positioning was so long of the dollar. Everybody is one way. I was a cheerleader for the dollar bull run. Theres nothing wrong with that. Everything seems priced into that. Weve seen the kind of things where everyone is thinking one way. Everyone is positioned one way. You know it can go wrong. You spoke about better European Data. Why were we ignoring better European Data . It just didnt make sense to us. Just like when oil was rising we questioned it. The yen went up a long way market questions it. I think we got to the point where qe runs the course in terms of the currency for europe and well see if it will run the course in terms of equity. If we get a begin wen recovery in the eurozone youll get rising equities with a rising euro. At the moment the trend is to own european equities on a hedge basis. The question you should own them on an unhedged basis. If there then the euro is going up and the techty market has to run the course. Well see if youre right. David bloom, thank you for joining us. Thank you. Were one hour 50 minutes until the new trading day. The stocks europe 600 is pushing up higher. Why are we seeing the rebound . It already started on friday. We saw the late session rebound in the u. S. Markets on the back of some of yellens comments. In is also, a turn around from the degree of profit taking we saw earlier last week and the accompanied by a bout of volatility. It seems as though Risk Appetite and calm is creeping into the markets. Its a holiday short week with good friday on friday. Lets have a look at bond markets. Were seeing bond markets little changed. These are european markets. Ftse 100 pushing higher about. 25 of 1 . The xetre dax had fallen 5 but now its above the 12,000 level. This is the best performing equity market so far this year. Cac 40 up by 1. 2 . Now lets get to the bond markets. We see bond markets little change this morning. We are seeing the ten year below the 2 level. A little change after yellens comments in san francisco. Were seeing the ten year german yield below 0. 2 and the 10 year at 5. 66. I want to check in on commodity markets. Lets see how oil is doing as traders price in a nuclear deal between iran and the rest of the world. Brent crude continuing the losses up by 0. 8 . Wti sitting at 4812. Remember crude did fall by 5 in fridays trading session and spot gold off by 0. 8 percent. We are in singapore. How are we doing . Thank you very much. Pretty solid performance overall lead by Mainland China equities by 2. 5 . All clarity from beijing over the martin silk Road Initiative. It benefitted the infrastructure stocks. Over the weekend the government Pboc Central Bank did suggest that more easing was coming and he they said the scope for further policy moves by the central banks. The markets liking those two streams of news. Elsewhere we got worsening marc data from japan. Missed by a wide margin indeed or the market seems to take it in stride 19,411. A lot of positions just before the end of the quarter for japanese equities. S p asx off by almost 2 . The resources were leading it low. Thats where we stand. Back to you. Thank you very much. And coming up on world wide exchange. A bigger threat than putin. We tell you about the latest poll that suggests republican seat president obama is a is it time to sell chinese banks . Why owning the sector may be under threat. And tim cook joins a chorus of leaders warn the pursuit of healthier. It begins from the second were born. After all, healthier doesnt happen all by itself. It needs to be earned. Every day. Using wellness to keep away illness. And believing that a single life can be made better by millions of others. Healthier takes somebody who can power modern health care. By connecting every single part of it. For as the world keeps on searching for healthier. Were here to make healthier happen. Optum. Healthier is here. Welcome back to the show. Lets get you caught up on the top stories in the corporate front. Russian businessman has rejected the renegotiated merger terms between wholesome. This according to several reports over the weekend. Stephan joins us at france and down by 1. 1 on the back of the news. Its not just cement. Is it going to go through . We dont know. Obviously there are a lot of hopes it will go through. The second largest shareholder with 10. 8 stake. He reportedly criticized new terms of the deal. It would be the second shareholder to disagree with the plan. On friday another major shareholder expressed similar concerns saying it would need too know the name of the future ceo before making a decision on whether or not it be would support the deal. Two weeks ago they agreed in a new merger deal will give the swiss make aeror a bigger chunk. It also includes a new government structure the ceo of the two companies will become a nonexecutive cochairman. We dont know the name of the future chief executive. It will be announced later and submitted by the board. There is a question still. Stephan, that saga continues. Thank you very much for that update. Shares in italian e mers Fashion Company limit up after a report from reuters said it could be set to acquire this week. Amazon was in talks to buy the high endon line retailer. It seems like a bidding war going on. Meanwhile World Duty Free shares sharply lower and off by 8. 3 after agreeing to be bought by swiss travel retailer. This would value the italian travel retailer at 3. 6 billion. It will finance the deal with a mix of debt and equity. We have more on the story from milan. Why are shares in the company down so heavily . Well, you know, first of all, the deal was in the pretty much given as a done deal. That was being the first reason. The second is the fact that this price tag of 10. 25 euros came in at a 22 premium on the average six month prize but at a discount of 6. 5 on fridays level. So youre seeing the stock down here this morning down by 8. 3 . It has been performing that way all morning. Again, this was pretty much a deal that was considered to be a done deal. Youll remember that World Duty Free was spun off a year ago and this was what the family wanted to ultimately do was to sell their stake. That is a 50. 1 stake at 10. 25 euros. So for the family that is bringing in 1. 3 billion euros. This will create a leader in travel retail worth 3. 6 billion euros. Well continue to watch it. And that is on the rumors of the deal they could be merging. You remember they bought it for 392 Million Euros in 2010. They have not turned a profit. That is 700 Million Euros in s ins in s ins in s ins in revenue. That company is profitable. They are growing double digit. It could mean a strong tie up for fashion retail. But well see whether the rumor is confirmed or not. On the market were higher by 1. 16 . Back to 0 you. Thank you very much. In italy this morning and last but not least we want to show you what shares are in begin dale are doing. Up almost 14 after the struggling outscorer agreed to sell for 637 million pounds. Quindell announced a Major Management shakeup including the resignation of four directors. Thank you. Still to come on the show tensions run high in nigeria as technical glitches delay a result in the closely watched president ial election. Were live in lagos with the latest after the break. Saudi arabia said it will continue bombing yemen until the countrys president is back in power. Officials add theyre still considering whether to send a in Ground Troops. Geopolitical attentions heightened with the Iranian Nuclear powers world powers and tehran are in disagreement over a number of key issues ahead of tomorrows deadline. Chinese stocks hitting near sevenyear high. Denmark, russia and australia become the latest nation

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