A bonus battle heats up as they suggest that a compensation could fall this year for the First Time Since 2011. The best night for saturday night live. Critics slam Donald Trumps appearance and calls by opposers to dump the trump. Good monday morning. Thank you so much for joining us. If youre just tuning in, thanks so much for finally sharing your time with us. Lets quickly check in on the futures board and what its telling us ahead of the wall street open today. And it looks like we are below fair value. Were coming off the sixth consecutive fasa week for all big three industries. Thats the longest winning streak since late 2014. The implied open is telling us were going to be down 5 points. The s p, Dow Jones Industrials pricing in declines. The nasdaq looks like we are closer by 4. 5 points. Lets talk about european markets. European markets, weve been on a winning streak of sorts at least when it comes to the cac 40, german dax as well. Today were giving back some of that advance. This is on concerns about more tightening for the Federal Reserve. The largest central bank in the world. The ftse 100 seeing a small gain up. 25 of 1 . Thats some positive news here. The cac 40 has been on a sixday winning streak. Looks like that might come to an end today. The ftse mib seeing losses of 1 3 of 1 . Lets talk about china trade. China trade data over the weekend slumping once again. Exports falling nearly 7 in the month of october. Thats the fourth straight month of declines. Well below expectations. Imports also dropping slipping over 18 , which is a concern that maybe there isnt that much uptake when it comes to the consumer in china. Carolyn . Meanwhile, the nations oldest Investment Bank cicc is trading above the initial price. It comes after chinas regulators said it will lift the ban on ipos, a sign of confidence. Lets check in on how the shanghai markets responded to all of this. A lot of news to contend with. Sri . Yeah, carolyn, it was a day of divergence this monday in the asian markets. On the one hand on the negative side of the ledger you had the payrolls number friday knocking it out of the park. Fed fund futures implying a 70 probability that the fed will move in december. So that smooths a fair few markets especially the move vulnerable sovereigns like indonesia and malaysia. On the other side of the ledger you have 2 1 2 month highs for the Japanese Equities and mainland equities. They referenced the headline there that the trade data over the weekend was pretty disappointing, especially on the external side, but we have stunning debut from cicc and the Hong Kong Market and we have the regulator lifting the ban on ipos. So that really provided quite a lot of momentum to the financials, to the brokerages and to the banks and that lifted sentiment in mainland equities. Were back in bull target for the shanghai composite. All of a sudden were up 20 for the bottom lows. Sri, good to see you in singapore. Lets talk about fed talk. San francisco fed president John Williams says that now the u. S. Is closing in on full employment. Yes, we do have the jobless rate down to 5 on friday. Inflation likely to rise to target levels. He says the next step should be to start gradually raising rates. Speaking in arizona, williams says that it makes sense and asked by a reporter whether hes leaning towards a december move, williams declined to say adding that he expects a lot of data between now and then. But following the really strong and surprised job data that we got on friday, Investment Banks have been racheting up their expectations updating their calls on when that rate hike is going to take place. Goldman sachs expects the fed to move in december and that any data between now and then will determine the future path of rate hikes rather than the initial hike itself. Citi saying decembers quote is all but certain at this point and barclays is moving its call forward to december citing the payrolls data, lower uncertainty and changes when it comes to fmoc communication. Lets see what the markets think and what investors think. Anthony chan joining us. Do you agree with a lot of calls out there . December is all but certain at this point. I think that december now has a probability in our view of more than 80 probability that the Federal Reserve will move. You really have to see a disastrous employment report ahead of the next fmoc meeting at the middle of the month for the if he had rool reserve to change its mind. You said the shanghai composite index is in positive territory, sharply over 20 from the lows. That was clearly a concern in september. It is not a concern right now so when you look around its very difficult to find things that would suggest that the Federal Reserve should pause. The final point i would make is that wages were something that was concerning people. Now the hourly average earnings are rising. More than 2 3 of the costs of providing a good or service or labor cost, so its just a matter of time before that starts to spill over into general prices. Lets talk about how expensive the market is or whether its still cheap in your view because remember warren buffet, he says if the fed isnt hiking interest rates, stocks are cheap. If they are, stocks are expensive. Your view . Well, given the fact that the Federal Reserve is going to move at a snails pace, i am not really concerned with the Federal Reserve raising rates. In fact, historically when the Federal Reserve raises rates primarily because the economy is improving, rather than trying to catch up to rising inflation expectations. The equity market a year and two years later does better. The way i measure that is by looking at changes in the Feds Fund Rate compared to what the changes are in the Consumer Price rate. I think very few people would argue that the changes in the fed fund are changing. In this case it would mean that the Federal Reserve is raising rates not because of inflation trying to slow the economy but rather reflecting the fact that economy is improving. Anthony, a lot of people are arguing that were seeing tightening through the higher Dollar Exchange rate. That means we dont need any additional tightening by the fed in december. Whats your view . I think that youre absolutely spot on. The strengthening effects of the dollar are, in fact, doing some of the feds job. Thats precisely why the Federal Reserve is going to move at a snails pace. Rather than raising rates perhaps at every meeting or even more aggressively, the Federal Reserve probably does it very, very slowly. I expect that if the Federal Reserve raises rates in december, which i expect, next year were probably not likely to see more than half of a percent or 3 4 of a percent in total increases in the Feds Fund Rate. As the economy continues to get better and as the Consumer Price index, for example, starts to move, i think by the end of the year to somewhere in the neighborhood of 1. 5 to 2 on a yearoveryear basis and yet the fed raises rates slowly precisely because the effects of a slower dollar will obviate the move. The case for december, the probability is at around 80 . What, if anything, would dissuade the fed from hiking in december . Would it be about jobs report . What would it be . Would it be volatility in the markets . I think that all of the above if they become really serious could, in fact, derail the markets. You have to think about what prevented the Federal Reserve from raising rates in september. It certainly was Global MarketGlobal Financial market and stability. What was going on in china certainly was weighing in. We also saw that in the u. S. The equity market was a bit nervous. So theres a confluence of events. Right now you have wages starting to rise, you have employment at very high levels. Even that socalled scary Unemployment Rate, namely the u 6 Unemployment Rate that a lot of people like to point to, even that number is going down. That number is at one of the lowest levels weve seen in seven years coming down to 9. 8 . Short answer to the question is we need to see Global Financial market or stability or you need to see an absolutely disastrous employment rate which i define as a number significantly south of 150,000 on payrolls and for the average Hourly Earnings gains completely disappear as you move into december, which i dont expect. All right. Noted. Anthony, thank you so much for that. Anthony chen, chief economist at chase. After multiple allegations that president ial hopeful ben carson has embellished stories of his past, dr. Carson went on the offensive speak to go cnbcs Chris Jansing about calling the media out. I expect to be vetted. You said this 30 years ago, you said this 20 years ago, this didnt exist, this didnt exist. You know, i have not seen that with anyone else. If you can show me where thats happened with someone else, i will take that statement back. I think almost every person who has been president not like no, not like this. I have never seen this before and many other people who are politically experienced tell me theyve never seen it before either. You dont think that bill clinton or the president with his birth certificate, people who still refuse to believe no, not like this. Not even close. Meanwhile, republican president ial frontrunner donald trump questioned the voracity of carsons anecdotes. Appearing on meet the press sunday morning, trump told chuck todd that carson has some explaining to do. When he writes that he has pathological disease in a book. He obviously wrote this book prior to thinking about running for office, i assume. He said he has pathological disease. You dont believe him . You dont believe him, do you . If you have pathological disease, thats a problem. He wrote it, i didnt write it. Hes going to have to explain a lot of things away. Well, the donald, he had a very busy weekend. The night before appearing on meet the press. He helped nbcs saturday night live jump to the highest overnight rating since 2012. The decision to allow him to host the show led to protests due to republican president ial candidates, his controversial comments on ethnic minorities. Latino activists even offered 5,000 for anyone who heckled the billionaire businessman during the live show. Trump touched on this controversy during his opening monolog with a little help from comedian larry david. And were going to have a lot of fun tonight. Youre a racist. Who the hell is i knew this was going to happen. Who is that . Trumps a racist. Its larry david. What are you doing, larry . I heard if i yelled that theyd give me 5,000. As a businessman, i can fully respect that. Actually the reviews werent that great, were they . Because the New York Times television critic, he said viewers tuned in to see a joyless, unfunny show. It played like a hostage video. He only had 12 minutes on the show. Thats not much. No, thats not much. Some of the clips which i did see which well run later on, my favorite is coming up. Well touch on that with ben white. 9 Million Viewers tuned in. 9 million. Thats the highest this year. Higher than last years and the most since 2012. Lets talk about wall street. You know, as donald trump said as a businessman i can fully respect that. Well, wall street bonuses, speaking of money, are expected to drop some 5 to 10 this year according to a new report being brought forward by Compensation Consulting FirmJohnson Associates. Apparently according to them its the first year since 2011 that bonuses for the entire industry are expected to decline. Global market turmoil has hurt returns for many Money Managers and hedge funds. Thats forcing some companies to delay their ipos, affecting pay for bankers that underwrite those deals and bonuses for fixed income traders are expected to drop as banks deal with new regulations, carolin. Credit suisse may cut bonuses by 60 . This giant is aiming to write down assets. This as reports suggest Credit Suisse could see significant impairment charges in the fourth quarter. It would be in accordance with rules set by the swiss financial authorities. Credit suisse is one story. In terms of the u. S. Banks and the cuts and bonuses that were expected to see there, wow, that would be a big hit for many of the bankers the first time in many years weve seen bonuses decline. If you work in certain industries, if you work in mna, private equity, youve done pretty well this year. Weve had a bumper year for mna. Theyre expect the to see their bonus up by 10, 15 . Second year in a row its a windfall for the mna bankers. In this day and age when were talking about 12,000 job cuts, 15,000 and deutsche bank, you know, 30,000 jobs being slashed, you know, shouldnt we be lucky to have jobs in a shrinking financial industry . Its true. Once again i would come back to the point that bonuses make up a huge part of the compensation. For many of these bankers always have done. So now a large part of the bonus, first of all, is deferred since the new rules set in. And then if youre going to see that bonus cut, whats actually your incentive to go into Financial Services to go into banking . I dont know. I always see the cup as being half full. If you have a job, thats a good thing. Lets give you a rundown of what to watch for on this monday on this trading day. No Economic Data today believe it or not. Look out for reports. Retail sales, import prices and inflation. When it comes to fed speak, boston fed president speaks this afternoon. When it comes to earnings, we have price line, hertz, sothebys and well hear from lions gate. Brewing up for a sale. We have more on sabmillers sale coming up after this break. These are the headlines. Feds John Williams says a rate hike makes sense following fridays strong numbers. A 23 billion timber giant purchased more and bonuses could fall on wall street for the First Time Since 2011. A Canadian PacificRailway Train has derailed in wisconsin on sunday spilling less than 1,000 gallons of crude oil. Now residents in the area, they have been asked to evacuate their homes. Canadian pacific said the leaking car has been sealed and no oil has reached the water way. The incident comes after another Freight Train derailment in the state on saturday spilling thousands of gallons of ethanol. Bnsf was working to transfer the ethanol and get the cars back on the tracks. Apache is rejecting an approach for an unidentified party. They sent a letter to apache in the past few weeks. Last week apache reporting a smaller than expected loss and boosted the forecast. Apache shares have been down more than 50 since the peak in june. Oil prices have been crashed and have been crashing. Weyerhaeuser is going to buy plumb creek timber for 8. 4 billion. They will manage 13 million acres. They will get a 21 premium to fridays closing price. Once the deal actually closes, the company will launch a 2. 5 billion stock buy back to offer an exit option. Weyerhaeuser and plumb creek, if we can bring up the boards, theyre up some 14, 15 or so. Meantime, Intercontinental Hotel group said it is not considering a sale or merger of the company. They suggest that the Hotel Operator was exploring its options. They own holiday inn or crown plaza. Theyre up by 4 in u. K. Trade. Theyve gained recently on rumors of a deal. Sabmiller is preparing to sell its u. S. Business for more than 10 billion this week. Thats according to a report in the sunday times. The british brewer would sell its 58 stake in miller coors to join molson coors in order to help ab earn regulators approval. Both deals are expected to be completed on wednesday. Well see. Still to come on the program on Worldwide Exchange, were live in dubai for the air show as orders are expected to be lower than in previous years with security taking center stage. Welcome back. The dubai air show, the minister is calling for more openness and less security in the skies. The big three careers in the u. S. Are opposing this. They get unfair subsidies as opposed to us. Reporter thats exactly right, susan. Essentially what weve heard over the last 48 hours is a continuation of this war of words between the mid east carriers and the u. S. Carriers. The u. S. Carriers accusing them of taking as much as 42 billion in subsidies since 2004. Now for reaction on that, i spoke to the president of em merits airline. Take a listen to what he had to say. We have almost exhausted ourselves in the explaining why we as emirates have not taken subsidies. We couldnt have been more transparent. For someone to keep banging on that particular drum is a complete waste of time. As far as open skies are concerned, for me im a multinaturalist. I certainly believe that economies can only grow where he remove restrictions not just in the aviation side but every other business development. To shut down or selectively reduce open skies, whatever you think, whatever you would like to do has the unintended consequences. Reporter now in the American South we would say those fighting words. Listen to what the ceo of Qatar Airways had to say. This is always a story of crying wolf. They are afraid of c