Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20151201 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange December 1, 2015

Resilient. This is a turning point. President obama prepares to hold a News Conference as he and xi jinping take the lead on the first day of talks. Also coming up on the Program Change at the top. The ceo is stepping down in a surprise prove citing set backs over recent months. Also taking flight, the plane powered by only the sun raises enough cash to get airborne. Well be speaking to the pilot and to infinity and beyond. Were live from a launch pad to find out how one satellite is hoping to make a big scientific break through. So welcome to the show. Euro zone pmi data breaking now. Its come in at 52. 8 for november. Thats in line with the forecast of 53. 8. Slightly higher than october reading. We had the individual countries coming out in the last half an hour or so. Lets break down how we ended up in line for the euro zone as a whole france was in line and germany was a small beat. Rallying off the back of this. Were up. 5 today. Maybe also profit taking in the u. S. Dollar. German jobless rate falling to the lowest level on record. The Unemployment Rate falling to 6. 3 in the month of november. That is once again the lowest level since the countrys reunification back in 1990 according to the federal labor office. The seasonally adjusted unemployment total fell from 13,000 to 2. 772 million. That final leg up as well this mornings trade. More relating to the jobless than the pmi weve got a little bit of profit taking as well. Joining us is the chief Global Equity strategist at city investment. Good morning to you. Too much priced in already to the euro dollar. Are we going to see a bit of a bounce . Is the risk here that the euro has already gone too far too quickly . Obviously its the big focus of this week. What the ecb are going to do. We have to put that in the context of the fed hiking later in the month. Everybody is pretty lined up to be short the euro relative to the dollar through september. There may be hiccups along the way i suspect. Is there signs for optimism . Pmi today and other data in recent weeks. Are things improving even without further stimulus . Theres evidence that super cheap money is working. Its tiny baby steps but the data is improving. Our economists are relatively optimistic in the context of europe about what the economy is doing at the moment. Youre expecting more from the ecb, i assume, negative deposit rate . That will be a weird one to get our heads around. Perhaps moving two negative rates, further qe policies and so on. You have to see this in the context of the ecb is focussing on inflation at the moment. You can get slightly stronger day. Were expecting further strength in the dollar and euro but people have got ahead of themselves a bit. What does it mean for european equities . When we saw the first big unveil of qe we saw an incredible rally for european equities. Can that be repeated this time around . Its a phase in this shift. Weaker euro helps European Equity market. We might expect to see the next phase kicking in as we speak right now and into next year. But it might not be as strong. It would be hard to see such a strong start out of the traps next year as this year. Well talk more about the markets. So stick around. Well go to break here but coming up next i want to remind you to head to our website cnbc. Com to find out how softer manufacturing data and stronger auto sales could paint a mixed picture. Find that preview on our website. Reached some key deals to tackle Climate Change. Headline agreements include a plan by india and france to make solar energy more affordable in developing nations. 20 countries including the u. S. , china and india vowed to double their 10 billion spending toward renewable energy. Theyll commit 5 billion over the next five years to help reduce deforestations while they unveiled a plan to cut greib house gas emissions and more than 30 countries lead by sweden and new zealand called for an end to fossil fuel subsidies. So some of the headlines in the crucial meeting at cop21. Nothing truly Ground Breaking yet you might say though. Lets get out to steve for what he has learned so far in paris, steve. Let me just tell you stuff going on as we speak. I have just come out of one meeting where Prince Charles is speaking. He is talking about deforestation in brazil so interesting people from royalty to key u. S. Politicians to business men convening here on paris to add in on the climate debate as well. A lot of money has been coming forward for various initiatives but concerns about how we make that transition as well and theres a lot of states here that have an interest in keeping fossil fuels as a lower part of a future energy mix if there is a agreement here in paris. One of those countries is norway. As we all know its the Third Largest gas producer in the world. Has a huge amount of coal reserves as well and built up a 900 billion sovereign wealth fund. How do they manage to transition . And is there a question about stranded assets as mark carney talked about in the last month as well that you wont have recoverable assets as well. And maybe too difficult to do but still there will be a need for it and i think it will be longterm. In the future we will have to have a little bit less of our economy linked to oil and gas and different new areas because thats more sustainable for the futu future. If we did go to an environment with less fossil fuels and got to a 2 increase in temperatures were talking about 34 trillion at risk of revenues for hydrocarbon producers. 5. 5 trillion in the gas industry and 5. 8 in the coal industry. Well people would say that would then go into cleaner tech and renewables as well. How optimistic are people around here . I would suggest on days one and two fairly optimistic. All the leaders rolled in yesterday. Some are still around today but also lots of celebrated geologists around. And i asked whether he was optimistic this time around we would get a better deal for the planet. Well, the statement made by the president of the United States is enormously heartening. It doesnt go as far as i might wish but shows that his heart is in the right place and hes putting muscle behind it so its very encouraging. Do you feel that given the fact that so many emerging nations are at an early stage of industrialization their need for fossil fuels and coals could be harming for the prospects of a good deal . No, their need for energy is what justifies the whole thing and what were pointing out is that if we adopt the right sort of Research Policies we will be able to produce energy much cheaper than in that which comes from coal. So it will be to their advantage to use that instead of coal because it will be cheaper. They will want to do so because its cheaper. And what is the key to getting the right financing in place for all of that innovation and research and development thats needed . The key is solving a number of identifiable problems to do the gathering and transmission and finally the storage of energy. We know the basic signs but at the moment we havent produced the answers which are economically cheaper than that involved in coal. So thats the point. And finally, theres a lot of skepticism on Climate Change and the manmade causes for this in the United States. Republican candidates queuing up to disagree at this moment. What would you say to those that dispute the science in the u. S. And elsewhere . I would say why not trust the people that spent their lives and energies and science investigating this and look at the conclusions. Its not an easy subject. But some time or another you have to allow scientists that dead kated their minds to thinking on these matters to have a say and when you do, the answer is clear. Talking about his optimism for a deal there. He was saying why not trust the scientists . Well we want to trust them of course but there has been some sketchy science over the year but 97 of scientists believe that something has to be done because this is manmade. I suppose we have to take them at their word. Back to you. Thank you. Also on cnbc. Com find out how some of the largest corporate sponsors are being bran dahlized on the streets of paris. Head to our website for more on that story. U. K. Banks are trading in the green after passing the bank of england stress test but rbs and Standard Chartered only improve after passing the stress test. Bank of england relieved some capital pressure following years of stricter rules. This also helping to boost the bank shares today. Governor mark carney said there will be none because theyre more resilient now. Lets take a look at this tuesday session in european markets as we head into the ecb meeting this week. A mixed trading picture after two straight months of gains for all three major benchmarks in the u. S. Well be right back folks. I built my business with passion. But i keep it growing by making every dollar count. Thats why i have the spark cash card from capital one. I earn unlimited 2 cash back on everything i buy for my studio. 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Children and adolescents in particular may be at an increased risk of seizures, confusion, or abnormal behavior. The most common side effects are mild to moderate nausea and vomiting. Antiflu . Go antiviral with tamiflu. Lets check in on what it means for todays trade in asia. Its interesting, isnt it . The main dp land chinese equities took these numbers in their stride but ill say this about both the data sets. The private forecasters number and the official number. They are both in my mind consistent with persistent inflationary drag and one that warrants a bold policy response. Elsewhere we are seeing a strong risk on rally and thats been predicated on expectations of more ecb easing so all eyes on thursday. In my opinion, this move higher today is overdone. Can we really say with some certainty that even if the ecb does ease and ease aggressively on thursday that cheaper liquidity in europe is going to stay in europe or is it going to come over here . The markets seem to be banking on the latter. That it will be deployed over here. I dont think so. I think its going to stay in europe and be deployed in europe. Well see whether theres any profit taking of these higher levels or not. Thats where we stand. Back to you. Thank you for that. The owner of Manchester City Football Club and others around the world. It brings the cfg groups valuation to the 3 million mark. It will be used to tap into the potential that exists in china and this is massive news. Also a very surprise for the football community. The parented club is expanding around the world as well with teams in new york australia and japan. Its a surprise and big evaluation and puts even more fire power in the hands of Manchester City. I was looking at this and i was thinking Manchester City because im not a football watcher. Im glad you said football not watcher. First hour of the show. I was gauging your reaction to that. Its probably sacrrelig around the desk here. For some reason they like buying into Manchester City, dont they . They went through a couple of transitions but now very much solidly owned and theyre seen as one of the richest clubs because of that but to have chinese backing as well is extreme and it points to the extraordinary cash promotion ability of the english premiere league. Theres other plans to expand and they want to expand and own a stake in a club in china it sounds like but 3 billion valuation for the whole group isnt that high when you think of the number of fans around the world and the generation it is. But its hard to value these clubs because they arent really comparable. But 400 million for that 13 stake. You said that was a little bit too expensive. So does that logic of bubbles, does that really apply to the football world . Its a fear. Im not saying necessarily its expensive its hard to workout the true valuation of the clubs. Manchester united is only listed on the new york stock exchange. Its hard to say but its big news and a surprise. Lets move on and take a look at todays biggest movers. Shares lower after hitting a two month low after cutting its Profit Guidance on industrial production. It expects to be down from 4. 5 to 4. 7 billion euros. Climbing to the stop of the stoxx 600 after it reports the home based unit could be up for sale. He has been linked to private equity groups regarding the possible sale of home base. Heading for the best day since 2013 up by almost 8 . A slightly different story for the french state Holding Company or the French Air Defense company safran. Down by 2. 26 . Thats after ape sold its 2. 6 stake in the defense firm for more than 750 million euros. Following the sale france will remain safrans largest shareholder and Zurich Insurance not doing much this morning. Only off by 0. 4 . The ceo is stepping down from the swiss insurer with the chairman taking temporary charge with immediate effect. The move comes less than three months after zurich failed in its attempts to take over its u. K. Rival rsa. Now he admitted set backs in recent months but was convinced he put in place the right measures for the company to succeed in the future. Lets talk more about this. Joining us is the executive director. Thank you for speaking to us this morning. Look, what was the breaking point for him . Was it the weakness in the general Insurance Business or the fact that they have to walk away from the rsa bid . Its been an accumulation of factors. Theres been a general sense that this group has not been fulfilling its full potential and as you say, i think things came to a head at 3q. Issued a profit warning and also the need to strengthen reserves in its Insurance Business and that was the final straw. The share man and ceo saying the profile needed for the new ceo is someone with a entrepreneurial spirit. A leader with a deep knowledge of the insurance industry. What do you think they mean by that . Do they want someone thats more engaging on the m a front . No, personally i think to start with they need to complete its own in house tidying up. The group identified at 3q it had 15 underwriting portfolios that generates 1. 4 billion in losses. So i think theres maybe a need to take a deeper look at the existing portfolio distances to continue with the refocussing of the group before i think, you know, investors will be comfortable with zurich looking to expand further. An analyst says theres going to be a rebasing of the dividend and its been a focus for more insurance investors. Now saying this morning theres not going to be any change in the dividend policy going forward. Which camp are you in . Im in that for the shortterm that camp. But no change for the dividend. I mean its a key attraction as you say. The debate is the preference of bringing an external candidate in. The pay out ratio is high both against earnings and cash but shortterm i think the swiss frank remains and investors are expecting that and theyll look to deploy excess capital next year. Thank you for your time. Appreciate it. Executive director of 12 capital. Getting back to the market. Theres a question about how much and how quickly i guess normalization Interest Rates will go for the federal reserve. Goldman sacks top Economist Says the fed will take a slow approach when it comes to raising rates. Telling cnbc he expects the central bank to hike once a quarter next year as not to upset major asset markets such as housing and bonds. I dont think theres a commitment there to do anything other than do what seems to be the right thing given the economy. Thats one point. The other point i think is that going half as quickly seems garage you. Domestic demand and Consumer Spending the main drivers in the u. S. Economy into next year, 2016 and also expects easing from the ecb this weekend and there he says will be further diver jens between the u. S. Rates and the eu economy in the coming weeks. Lets bring in the chief equity strategist. Thats the expectation. This divergence in policy around the world. 72 probability the fed will go this month. Were expecting the same as you just mentioned a split in policy this month between what the fed is doing and the ecb is doi doing. I think were overweight relative to the u. S. Because this is happening. Its important to emphasize to the people watching the show you need to hedge the currency to make sure that you dont lose money. We have a little bit more of a defensive tilt in the u. S. What about Political Risk in europe. The last couple of months seems to have gone away a little bit. Is that going to come back with a bit of a vengeance early next year . I think the european fractures go away and then every nine to 12 months they come back again. I would say to people we tend to worry about three things. The fed hiking whats going on in em and the fractures in europe. Whats the play here . What a lot of people are worried about is that its just another reason to underweigh emerging markets that the fed is hiking. Theres a traditional thought that higher Interest Rates. If youre an investor it would be hard not to be overweight right now. Theyre also not a value for u. S. Equities either traditionally. Not necessarily. What we found is these analysis of what you do

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