Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20151229 : vimarsana

CNBC Worldwide Exchange December 29, 2015

Move to raise Interest Rates. Belgium Police Arrest two suspects allegedly plotting an attack in brussels on new years eve. The arrests follow raids in three regions but they are not linked to the paris shootings. Snowstorms and flooding caused havoc for Many Americans during one of the busiest travel periods of the year. Lets check in on u. S. Futures. Yesterday some small declines at the end of it. It was down some triple digits but we managed to recoop some of the losses heading into the close. Checking in on the implied open were above fair value today. S p 500 called higher. Dow jones industrials should be gaining about 85 points at the open and the nasdaq is looking at an advantage of 25. Heres europe, a positive session so far getting an advanced lead from the asia pacific session overnight. The ftse 100 seeing gains of. 5 . The german dax, the france cac 40 and the ftse mib. Lets check in on mining shares since the commodities have been the story for 2015 and the dwindling oil price. Lets check in on mining stocks. Angelo american which is slicing its staff by 55,000 hooking at some steep losses here. 6. 3 . Lets look at oil stocks. Given that we saw a bit of reprieve when it comes to oil pricing in the last 24 hours or so this isnt translating through to the european session. Its a mixed picture out there jeff. So goes the oil price. So goes the markets at the moment. It seems to be what were getting in the early part of the european session here because there is a modest recovery taking place in the brent price after we saw weakness on the back initially of the announcement of saudi arabias budgets. Unveiled plans to cut spending and reform its economy after seeing the budge deficit jump to 98 billion this year. The First Official budget saw revenues miss expectations by 15 . While spending out paced forecasts as oil earnings plummeted. This comes as brent hovers near these 11 year lows. Jackie has more. Crude oil prices breaking their recent win streak to settle more than 3 lower today. Wti finished at 36. 81. Brent continues to trade under wti. Thats a phenomenon to watch. We see brent trading at a premium but now its fallen out of favor. Santa claus rally leading us into the holiday. Leading us into a long weekend. Thats not something traders were thinking was abnormal. Todays selling was a reality check. Nothing really changed when it comes to the kcrude oil story. A deficit of nearly 100 billion. The revenues were lower than expected and spending was higher than expected. Theyre really feeling the pinch from lower oil prices. We know its not just saudi arabia but other opec producers as well drawing a line in the sand saying theyll endure the environment of lower prices holding on to market share but it doesnt mean that its not coming without a cost. If that remains the case and nothing changes this could put more pressure on wti prices. Traders telling me it could not happen this week because volumes are light as we head into new years. Another long weekend but in early 2016 we could retest the lows in crude we saw not long ago. Lets just have a look at how thats effecting the saudi stock market. We had a weak start from the trading session and were currently about 2. 4 lower on this index. So the saudi market really not liking the weakness in the oil prices but also i think concerned that some of these price increases that will now be imposed domestically will have an impact on perhaps the growth dynamic. So expect Water Pricing to go up. Water bills to go up. Gas bills and also electricity pricing but also this tells me given that you know it looks like saudi arabia is willing to accept the on going budget deficit which is is typical for the saudi budget. Usually spend more than they take in. At least when it comes to the budget, it tells me that they are willing to stomach these low oil prices. That was the immediate reaction. They were very modest and reinforcing that expectation that the saudis are not yet ready to cut production and so the saudis are producing opec is cheating. The russians are going for it. The americans are just deciding they might start exporting their oil to the rest of the world here so we are floating in a sea of oil at the moment. The challenging part for me is when does this start to show up in corporate profitability . When do we see it start to improve . We have investment banks calling for the savings to translate through to more Consumer Spending in the u. S. Will that happen this year . They called for it in 2015. Didnt really cycle through the market. Ill find out. This is called putting your finger in the air and hoping that you get a sense of the direction in which the air is traveling. Right now its swirling. I dont think its clear if were going to get that, do you . We have seen some would say a relatively strong seasonal retail sales season so far in this holiday these holiday weeks but well check in on that in just a bit. But lets check in on natural gas. We have been talking about ten year lows for natural gas pricing. Futures for the month of february have come back up. We soared more than 8 on monday because cold weather is upon us. Forecasts are calling for lower temperatures and that could drive up demand for heating fuels. Analysts are suggesting maybe some Short Covering as well that added to the price spike. Lets give you a run down on this tuesday. The s p home price index due out at 9 00 a. M. Eastern time. Prices of Single Family homes expected to rise at a slower pace in october than what we saw in september and at 10 00 a. M. Well get december Consumer Confidence number which is is expected to have picked up this month after falling to a 14 month low in november so maybe weve seen a pick up back up during Holiday Shopping season. Lets look at the other corporate stories out there. I can hear quitely savers and retirees cheering in the United States. Jp morgan plans to raise deposit rates for most large clients next month. Its the first bank to do so after the fed hiked Interest Rates. Its not clear by how much jp morgan raised it shortly after the feds hike. Rivals bank of america, wells fargo, and citigroup havent yet revised their deposit rates which effect of course the interest they pay to customers. As i mention to you isnt it interesting the banks are so quick to hike prime rates but slow when it comes to paying out depositors. Its a business. Right. That Interest Rate margin has been working against you because the fed kept rates down low and i guess there was no incentive for you to pay depositers more interest. They have all been really quick when it comes to the prime rate. And slow. Slow for paying out deposito depositors. But if youre a retiree youre thinking lets bump up. I know its going a little bit grey. I have a few more years. Lets me know something. I got nothing. Lets move on and talk about pepboys. A take over offer from icahn is superior to a deal agreed to with bridgestone. Theyre moving to terminate the agreement. His bid of 18. 50 a share values it of around a billion dollars. Bridgestone has until thursday to respond. Pep boys they have around 800 stores and Service Centers across 35 u. S. States. Closing down. 5 on monday but did jump 6 in after hours. And outperforming that performance. The ceo of adidas says the firm is not under pressure to sell its reebok brand. This amid speculation that three big activist investors are pushing them to shed underperforming assets. They already announced the sell of rockport. Shares up over 25 over the last three months. Deutsche bank is planning to sell its share in hua xia for 4 billion. They picked it up in 2006 because they wanted exposure to chinese retail banking. Now theyre looking to beef up the Balance Sheets and theyre looking for a turn around and that does include job cuts, also dividend suspension but he remains committed to china at least as a growth moment. Shares are down some 11 year to date. Some surprising names in terms of the bigger performers for 2015. Are you hungry for profits . Were going to tell you which markets would have made you the most money this year after this. While youre watching this, im hacking your company. Grabbing your data. Stealing your customers secrets. Theres an army of us. Relentlessly unpicking your patchwork of security. Think youll spot us . You havent so far. The next wave of the internet requires the next wave of security. Were ready. Are you . Pep boys says a take over offer from carl icahn is preferable. The deal already agreed to with bridge stone after announcing a bigger than expected full year deficit. Argentinas new government is reportedly searching for a second u. S. Law firm to help it resolve a long standing dispute with creditors over its debt. Amid the second week of january to start talks toward settling the dispute which stemmed from the countrys 100 billion default in 2002. Argentina actually was one of the better performing markets through 2015 but hungary beat it to the top slot 42 return. Argentina a very close second. Ireland and italy also among the largest gainers for 2015 and russias micex up over 20 thanks to the collapse of the ruble. The s p 500 however would have earned you very little money. Now lets get to the cio of wealth advisors. Tim, good morning to you. It was not a real productive year for 2015 but what you mentioned earlier, the questions are where are all the savings from low Commodity Prices going. Are they going to end up on the bottom line of corporate profits. Are we going to start to see Consumer Spending pick up. We have seen consumers rather than spending money and savings rate increase. Household numbers improve and household Balance Sheets have gotten better. Thats gone down for households and theyre healthier. Markets stayed flat for over a year. Close to a year and a half now. And stock price versus not run too far ahead. Thats a good sign. Its not as though the u. S. Markets are overvalued. Theyre fairly valued and once those dollars start to flow in to markets and profits i think we should see markets move higher in 16. Whats been interesting and it ties into that story that youre describing for us on the consumer side is that we have seen Energy Prices and stocks trade together. And yet no one seems to be convinced that there is going to be a windfall benefit for consumers and for companies that are heavy users of energy. When does that start to show up in profits. Yeah, you know, historically it does take 4 to 6 quarters. Theyre one of the biggest providers of Capital Spending and generating a lot of investment in the u. S. Now theyre obviously reducing that amount and its up to other sectors and consumers to pick up the slack. That hasnt happened so far. As consumers start to see their better Balance Sheets we believe theyll start to spend in 16 and you are starting to see that in corporate Balance Sheets. I think i saw carnival last week announce their earnings did relatively well and a lot of that is due to a 46 drop in their energy costs and youll start to see that for a lot of companies fairly energy dependent. And carnival is trying to bet on the Chinese Consumer as well. You know, china and shanghai made 9 returns so far in 2015 despite the summer lows on the crisis as we call it. Wouldnt you say theres better value outside of the u. S. Right now . There is. Yeah, we think so. We think in the United States markets are fairly valued. Theyre where they should be for every dollar youre investing in the s p youre getting back more than 5 in earnings. When you look internationally for every dollar youre investing youre getting back about 6 to 6. 5 in earnings. Thats much better and emerging markets are at 40 to 45 discounts. So we do see International Assets being more of a value and over the next 3 to 5 years we would expect that International Assets should outperform u. S. Assets because of that and thats what we have seen historically. Ill take it. A lot of Fund Managers would. But arent we into this environment where were looking at single digit returns if not very relatively small returns for the next few years . Yes. Thats what were projecting. I think the market accepted the fact that were in a slower Global Growth stage. So developed markets like the u. S. And europe, expected growth in the 1. 5 to 2 range and emerging market expected growth has slowed too. But i think markets are priced for that. I dont think the Slower Growth is going to surprise anyone and that is going to pull expected returns down into, you know, mid to high single digits. But the offsetting good is because we are so awash in commodities like oil, metals, cotton, across the globe, that should pull inflation town as well. So rather than seeing 3 inflation, you might see 1. 5 inflation and the real return for equities should still be reasonable. Got it. Tim, thank you so much. Chief investment officer. Were going to squeeze in a quick break. But still to come on the program, were going to bring you the latest on the severe storms sweeping across the u. S. Which have caused travel chaos and loss of life. Well have pictures when we come back. Police arrested two individuals accused of plotting to carry out terrorist attacks in belgium over the holiday period. They revealed serious threats of attack on symbolic places in brussels during the celebrations on new years eve. Theyre not linked to the paris attacks. Isis propaganda and computer equipment were seized during the antiterror raids. Ohio grand jury cleared two Cleveland Police officers in the Fatal Shooting of 12yearold rice saying there were a series of mistakes but no criminal activity. Police radio personnel gave officers a description of a suspect brandishing a weapon but failed to convey the suspect was a juvenile and the gun may not be real. The decision comes days after another fatal shoot ofg two black residents by Chicago Police which now increased pressure on the department and also the city mayor. Lets bring in Edward Lawrence from washington d. C. With more. Susan the families of the victims are actually looking to washington here to get justice. They want to make sure that the Justice Department does a thorough investigation into whether the Police Officers involved violated the civil rights of the ones that they killed. Theres been protests across the United States including in cleveland and new york city about the shooting of the 12yearold boy. Now on november 22nd, 2014, someone called 911 saying there was a gunman in the park but the dispatcher never relayed critical information that it was actually a boy who had a toy gun. Within one second of the officers responding to that park, they got out, shot and killed the 12yearold boy and the prosecutors said it was a horrible crime and a terrible outcome however it did not rise to the level of criminal conduct by the Police Officers and a grand jury decided that. Now a lawyer for the family of the victims said that the prosecutor that worked so closely will police should not have been the one to present the case to the grand jury. Now meanwhile in chicago you mention rom emanuel. More calls for him to resign. He cut his vacation short to deal with the fact that there were two more people he killed. A 19yearold acting erratically with a baseball bat. An older 55yearold woman opened the door. Police ended up shooting and killing her. She was a mother of 5. In the statement missaid that was an accident and then they moved in and actually killed the 19yearold that had the baseball bat also. So theres an investigation going on with that. Those officers are placed on 30 day leave. More pressure on the Justice Department here in washington to come in and fix the situation. Theyre already investigating the Chicago Police for their response and their elevation, or escalation protocols. Reporting live in washington, back to you. Thank you for that. Edward lawrence with us from nbc. Lets talk about the state of the weather. Not only here in the u. K. But also in the United States. More than 3200 flights cancelled monday. Another 600 today as a major storm system swept across the u. S. Midwest. Heavy rain, sleet, snow and strong winds have been seen in parts of wisconsin, illinois and missouri. The majority of the cancelled flights are at chicagos two main airports. More than 40 people have been killed during storms that hit over the holiday weekend. Meanwhile, the u. K. Needs a quote, complete rethink of its flood defense strategy. According to Britains Environment Agency this warning comes as experts estimate the total cost of repairing damage caused by recent storms which hit mostly the north of england. Should come in at around 5 billion pounds. Those are incredible pictures, arent they . Whats happening in europe . The flooding . Were going to go to break here. But still to come on the program, every cloud has a silver lining. Tech companies have spotted a Business Opportunity and chinas smog problem. Well get you more on this after the short break. While youre watching this, im hacking your company. Grabbing your data. Stealing your customers secrets. Theres an army of us. Relentlessly unpicking your patchwork of security. Think youll spot us . You havent so far. The next wave of the internet requires the next wave of security. Were ready. Are you . Hi, everybody. Good Tuesday Morning. Welcome to worldwide exchange. Lets take a look at your headlines. Okay. Lets start with mar

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