Good morning and welcome to Worldwide Exchange on cnbc. Im sara eisen. And im wilfred frost. Lets get straight to u. S. Equity futures this morning. Slight gains yesterday. Today we are looking at a little bit of green on the screen. Really not very much to talk of. Ultimately we are flat in the premarket session. The dow called to open up by 9. 5 points. A quick look at the yield on the u. S. Tenyear treasury as well. Of course thats been an important risk gauge. 1. 862, as you can see. Just in the end of february, start of march, that yield has been ticking up. A little bit of bond selling, a little bit of riskon sentiment. Central banks on center stage today. The ecb meeting in frankfurt. Policy decision expected around 7 45 a. M. Eastern time. President mario draghi will hold a News Conference about 45 minutes later. The ecb is widely expected to roll out more stimulus. Lets show you the euro ahead of the decision. Under some pressure. Not a whole lot though. It is below 1. 10. Well keep an eye on it. It could change. If it weakens considerably, that could be a sign he gave the markets what they wanted, potentially even more. European equities as well. Sort of little changed ahead of the decision. A little bit lower but not a lot to speak of. The expectation, wilfred, a rate cut into negative territory, an expansion of the quantitative easing program, and potentially also pushing out the date of how long the qe program is going to last. Anything else youre hearing . I think the key one with this comes down to whether they increase the size of the purchases. Currently 60 billion a month, could be 70 million. I think more than a 5 or 10 billion increase raises a further question. Does he have to change what bonds he is buying . Because there arent really enough of the traditional assets. Very complicated. Either way, lets go back to that 30day euro chart we had. Yes, people expecting more easing. Yes, the euro has weakened on most time frames. The last ten days or so, weve seen it bounce. Its a 30day chart. We have it coming up for you in a second. It has weakened, but its just bounced back a little bit. The last ten days or so. So were expecting easing but perhaps theres a little uncertainty as to whether we get a disappointing mario draghi as we did in december or whether we get super mario, whatever it takes, lets blow this thing out of the water. In december, investors got burned. They were disappointed because the size of the qe did not expand. Thats why most economists are looking for a 10 billion euro expansion in the amount of qe. Draghi got the message loud and clear. If he delivered that 10 billion with a little bit of a rate cut, that would be enough to support markets. Right. Not the only central bank in focus today. Overnight in asia, a surprise rate cut from new zealands central bank. The benchmark cash rate dropping to a record low 2. 25 . Policymakers there citing china as a major risk to the banks outlook for Economic Growth and inflation. The new zealand dollar, the kiwi, tumbling on the news. Although, as we look at things now against the u. S. Dollar, its up a little bit. But it got slammed. This was a huge surprise. They had just said inflation was looking up. This is a sign that we are about to enter a whole new waefz of global easing. Indeed. So that one a surprise. Meantime, south koreas Central Bank Left its key rate unchanged for a ninth straight month. This was expected. Economic data out of china today. Consumer inflation there picking up faster than expected last month. The big reason, rising food prices. Overall, though, heres how major markets in asia closed today. The shanghai comp, although that cpi was better than expected, reacting to the fact it might lessen the ability of the central bank to ease because inflation a little stronger than expected. So the shanghai comp fell. Also, Producer Price inflation was disappointing. The nikkei responding more to the strength in the u. S. And europe yesterday. And a weaker yen, which is helping some of the exporters. As for the broader markets, lets show you whats happening in currencies, which gives you a good read on sentiment. The japanese yen is weakening for a change. Thats in the middle, where the dollar is strengthening. The euro will be the pair to watch today. Euro weakness ahead of draghi. Well see what happens 7 00 a. M. Eastern time. Gold with all the Central Bank Action and talk has come under a bit of pressure lately. Its down about half a percent. Well be watching that of course in the wake of Central Banks as well. Negative rates has been overall pretty positive for gold. Well see the reaction to draghi as well. So Central Banks in focus today. If theres been one main driver behind stocks of late, it is oil. Check out this chart of crude versus the s p 500 this year. Lots of correlation, particularly you would say in the last two or three weeks, since stocks started to rebound. Jackie deangelis joins us this morning. Great to have you up early with us. Great to be here. Is this going to continue . Its been interesting. Im going to lay out two cases for you so we can really look at this and analyze it. Definitely a bit of a momentum play to the upside. Were down a little this morning but holding over 38. Thats very significant. This is the time of year it typically happens. We had an inventory build yesterday, but were seeing those builds shrink a little bit. Gasoline we saw a drawdown because youre going to expect more people to hit the road. The weather is nice. Theyre going to want to be driving around. That boosts demand. This has been about supply and demand. We have a huge glut. If we start to consume some of it, thats good for oil prices. Weve had a lot of opec chatter. All of these headlines have been supportive but no substantive action. Were not really talking about an actual freeze yet or a cut in production. Were not really talking about saudi arabia tapping the market to raise money, although we were discussing it a little bit yesterday in more detail, that theyre looking to do that. These things have all been positive. We hit those technical levels, algorithms kick in. Oil prices start to move higher. The shorts cover as well because theyre not necessarily coming into the market to be net long, but they dont want to be short either. The downside bias goes back to the dollar, your favorite, the currencies. With the ecb, if we see dollar strength, you could see more pressure on crude prices. Also, remember, an interesting phenomenon here the u. S. As the prices start to rise, the producers may pump more. They feel more comfortable doing that. If that happens and production goes up again, they could slam the price right back down. Thats the interesting point right now. You need that supplydemand balance. If everybody doesnt play along to achieve it, we could see more volatility. And we are looking ahead to a date later in march where were seeing producers meet to talk about the output freeze. When is that . Whats likely to happen . So its not confirmed just yet. We still are talking about, you know, emergency meetings, getting all the members together. Remember how difficult that is to get everybody to communicate on a level like that. If we hear something more firm about a date, that a conversation could take place and we could see production cuts, that certainly going to help the oil price move higher. Again, i add that to the chatter category. Theyre talking about a date. Therefore, thats a step. Right, exactly. Jackie, thank you. Good to see you. Its another relatively light day for Economic Data. It is thursday, though, so we get weekly jobless claims out at 8 30 a. M. Eastern time. Theyre expected to slip slightly from the previous week. Claims have held below 300,000 for more than 50 straight weeks now. So that is a good sign when it comes to layoffs. Then at 2 00 p. M. , well get the monthly federal budget statement. Dollar general, party city, and vail resorts all reporting before the opening bell. Square reporting better than expected growth. Shares rising on that news. Square Ceo Jack Dorsey yesterday on closing bell responding to investors betting against the company. I think we need to constantly show were focused on the right things. Were focused on building great tools for sellers and that they value them. We continue to see that growth. I think were not only a first mover in a lot of areas, an innovator in a lot of areas, but also we have the best experience. We certainly compete with a lot, but what we find is that our competitors are only going after one part of the equation, whereas were looking a the a cohesive endtoend of what a seller needs. Jack dorsey is also running twitter. An article in the wall street journal today reporting that the social Media Company has been offering additional restricted stock and cash bonuses to retain talent. Twitter has been struggling to keep workers amid questions about the companys future. The stock trading below its ipo price, down more than 60 so far for the year. Its something that jack dorsey addressed on the call, the fact that investors still have this concern that hes going to be able to turn around twitter at the same time as running square. He addressed it, played it down. But i think those questions are still going to swirl. Absolutely. Twitter certainly under pressure. Still to come here on Worldwide Exchange, its dday for mario draghi. Well head to frankfurt for a live report from the ecb next. But first, todays business birthdays. Twitter cofounder biz stone is 42. Hes gone on to cocreate a social media app that encourages users to use photos to ask questions. And our very own david faber turns 52. In his two decades on cnbc, the squawk on the street coanchor has broken several stories, including Rupert Murdochs surprise go for dow jones. Hes going to kill us. He hates talking about his birthday. But he doesnt wake up early. So hes not even watching. Were back in a couple minutes. Looking for 24 7 digestive support . Try align for a nonstop, sweettreatgoodness holdontoyourtiara, kindofday. Live 24 7 with 24 7 digestive support. Try align, the undisputed 1 ge recommended probiotic. Welcome back to Worldwide Exchange. Lets get you up to speed on the market action. Futures right now a little positive. We found a slight bit of impetus to call the dow open. A top imf official saying the group could cut the Global Forecast in the weeks to come. Theyre calling on policymakers to take comprehensive action to strengthen their economies, echoing comments from imf managing director Christine Lagarde last month. Back in january, the imf projected Global Growth of 3. 4 in 2016. That was a downgrade in itself. And 3. 6 in 2016. While he expressed concerns about a slowdown in china, he does not foresee a hard landing. Just echoing other imf comments weve gotten in the last few days, warning about Global Growth and the need for policy action, especially fiscal policy. Theyve downgraded their growth forecasts nearly every meeting over the last few years. Were not likely to get any fiscal policy today, but we are likely to get Monetary Policy action. Lets get to the big story of the morning, the ecb. Cnbcs julia chatterley is in frankfurt waiting for the Central Banks policy announcement. What can we expect . Reporter well, hes got a lot of options. Good morning. If we look at qe, the Bond Buying Program, he could increase the monthly asset purchases. Currently around 60 billion euros a month. He could extend the maturity of the Bond Buying Program beyond march of next year. He could also expand the collateral. Then if we move on to rates, he could take the deposit rate further into negative territory. Thats where a lot of the speculation has been. He could also just chuck more money into the system with their longterm lending operations. But as far as the markets expectations, theyre expecting between 5 and 10 billion euros of additional purchases per month and a ten basis point deposit rate cut. Thats your benchmark. The question is, can he meet those expectations, and does he exceed them by giving us more in the q a session . I have to say, the traders ive spoken to are staying positioned in the market. Far more reticent to take positions into this meeting than they were back in december when everybody was very disappointed with what they came up with. So all options on the table at this stage. Speculation for an increase in the monthly purchases and a cut in the deposit rate of ten basis points. I imagine he might try and pull something out of the hat because we know he likes to do that. Just on a different topic. In the press conference, do we expect him to be quizzed and to answer any questions on a potential brexit . Of course, mark carney getting a lot of headlines this week for making clear his views on the topic. Will mario draghi do the same . Reporter its an interesting one. Im sure hell be asked, but he tends to be quite cautious about wading into the debates, particularly when its not one of the individual eurozone countries. Itll be interesting to see more how he gets out of answering that one, i think, than actually saying something about it in general. Julia, thanks so much for joining us. We look forward to seeing what mario draghi has in store for us. Joining us now to talk about the potential impact on the markets, jim russell. Hes a Portfolio Manager at ball and gainer. As far as u. S. Stocks, were coming off our sixth positive session in the last seven. Futures are looking up. Could mario draghi hurt the newfound rally for u. S. Stocks . Sara, its a good question. We do think the expectations for the ecb bank action today are pretty high. As you know, we have three Central Bank Meetings here in a row. Bank of japan follows the ecb next week. And of course the fed. I think the moons and stars have aligned already for some pretty good action in the stock market. So i think perhaps were set up for maybe a bit of disappointment, especially where the ecb is concerned. Expectations are high. When we think about u. S. Equities, jim, do they really care whats happening outside, given that weve had better data recently . It paints a picture of strength in the economy here that makes whatever the bank of japan or the ecb is doing a little bit more relevant than perhaps when Global Growth fears werent quite so high. We do think it matters. We think it matters for several reasons. We think export data out of the u. S. Has been somewhat weak in recent months, especially out of the manufacturing sector. Secondly, we think the ecb and the bank of japan combined with the fed have a pretty palatable and tangible impact on the currency markets. We would hope that whatever comes out of the next three meetings results in perhaps a slightly weaker dollar. Its hard to see that with so much rate cutting and further quantitative easing out of the ecb being the chatter. But were hopeful the net result of the next three meetings will be a weaker dollar, helping manufacturing and corporate earnings here in the u. S. Thats sort of a confusing concept for investors, jim. This idea that if mario draghi delivers f the markets cheer him and he overwhelms and hes super mario again, the euro will weaken substantially, and that means our dollar strengthens, and thats been a huge headwind for corporate america. So how can that be a good thing for u. S. Stocks . We dont think it will be. We think were hopeful, yeah, the ecb takes a more moderate approach today and speaks to these programs, doesnt strengthen the euro no, strengthens the euro and weakens the dollar. So its just hard to see that with all the aggressive talk around rate cutting and further quantitative easing in europe. Were totally cognizant theyre in a deflationary scenario and probably action is needed. But we do think that the scenario is set up for a negative in the u. S. , meaning a strengthening dollar. Again, headwinds to u. S. Earnings. Of course, other things that are not necessarily positive that go along with a stronger dollar, such as continuation, weakness in the manufacturing sector. And lower oil. Thank you, jim. And lower oil. Jim russell of bahl gaynor. Still to come on Worldwide Exchange, hillary and Bernie Square off. Sparks flying in last nights democratic debate. The highlights of that coming up. But first, as we head to break, heres todays Weather Forecast from the weather channels reynolds wolf. Sara and wilfred, what a day yesterday. All kind of rough weather in the central and southern plains. We could see another round of that along this boundary. Good chance of severe storms, heavy rain, flooding possible, and tornadic activity along the gulf coast. Very mild conditions ahead of this. Atlanta with partly cloudy skies. Pacific northwest, we have a chance of rain in the valleys but high in the mountains, snow for you. No snow to be heard of or seen for much of the midatlantic down into atlanta and south and central florida. Beautiful springtime warmth can be expected. 66 on the front range of the rockies. Bismarck with 64 degrees. 54 in chicago. Youre watching cnbc. More coming up on the other side of this commercial break. Ver . Yeah, so . It stinks in here. Youve got to wash this whole room are you kidding . Wash it . Lets wash it with febreze. For all the things you cant wash, use. Febreze fabric refresher whoa hey mrs. Webber inhales hey, it smells nice in here and try pluggable febreze. To continuously eliminate odors for. Up to 45 days of freshness pluggable febreze and fabric refresher. [inhale exhale mnemonic]. Two more ways to breathe happy welcome back. In political news this morning, were now five days ahead of a critical primary test. Democrats Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders facing off in a highstakes debate while Republican Marco Rubio appears in a town hall. Tracie potts joins us with the latest from the campaign trail. Reporter good morning. Miami, florida, seems to be the center of things right now. The democrats were there last night. The republicans debate there tonight. Hillary clinton, whos 30 points ahead