Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20161108 : vimarsana

Good morning. We are here. Its our top story. Happy election day and while the first polling stations on the east coast dont open for another hour the first in the nation votes are in. From that tiny New Hampshire town with 8 voters. Hillary clinton winning with four votes. The other two votes were split between gary johnson and write in candidate mitt romney. Clinton also won the New Hampshire town while trump picked up a victory in millsfield. Both campaigning into the early hours this morning. Donald trump and mike pence making a final stop in michigan. Do you want america to be ruled by the corrupt Political Class or do you want america to be ruled by you, the people . Thats what it is. By the people. Meantime Hillary Clinton attending a rally in philadelphia. Joined by pill and chelsea and president and mrs. Obamament. I want you to know and spread the word. I want to be president for all americans. Not just some and the people that support me and vote for me i want to be president for everyone because we all have a role to play in building that Better Future for our country and for each of you. She had a star studded rally. Much more coverage throughout the show but first lets check on the markets this morning after the giant rally said. Huge rally. Surprisingly big ralliful over 2 of gains for all three of the major u. S indices wiping out a weeks worth of losses. John harwood telling us he didnt think the weekends fbi releases would have a big ill pact on the outcome. Markets disagree. 2 of gains yesterday. Were expecting slight gains this morning but very much muted compared to yesterdays gains. 13 points for the dow. S p a point or so and the nasdaq three or four points. The bond markets also saw an unwind of last weeks moves. Yesterday we have seen the yield hit 1. 8 this morning. And if last week and yesterdays recover is only to go by if we saw a donald trump win we could expect to see equity sale off but bond markets to be bought and fields to fall. Also how overextended stocks were selling nine days in a row. Beyond the fact that the headline removed an overhang of uncertainty. Mike saw that the vix, the volatility index spiking to those 20 levels. Lets show you where we are after the rally yesterday in wall street. The german dax is trading flat. Higher and italy and spain lower. Chinas exports and imports fell more than expected sparking fears that the countrys economic recovery could be in trouble. Exports dropping 7. 3 from a year earlier. Declined 1. 4 . The shanghai composite closing up. 5 and so did hong kong. The nikkei ended last on the session. The china data overall has been a lot better. Potentially this could signal that its a weak Global Economic environment. The fact that theyre not getting buyers from around the world. Exactly. The big drop was exports. Imports did fall more than expected as well. But they still have a big trade surplus as well. Its not like theyre suddenly under pressure in terms of their balance and payments and all of that stuff. Lets have a look at broader markets. Not because of the risk on rally but stories and confirmations that they still intend to meet the production cuts. Either way they cut their losing streak and giened around about 2 yesterday. 1. 8 to be precise. Up another. 5 today. 45. 1 for wti. The dollar rallied yesterday. All the u. S. Assets rising yesterday. Today its more muted as are the equity markets. Tra waiting for that election result. We have only around 10 basis points for the dollar in any one direction. Gold prices that rallied on fierce of a Trump Victory eased back yesterday and today having fallen 2 yesterday. But yesterday they were about 1279. Thats our watch Board Election and into tonight. The boss helping Hillary Clinton make her Closing Argument to a roaring crowd in philadelphia last night. Bill and Chelsea Clinton along with the obamas joined that rally as we mentioned. Earlier in the night donald trump appeared to workers in scranton on the last day of the campaign. Both candidates spent a lot of time in the final days leading up to the election. The battleground has 20 votes up for grabs. And were in Chester County pennsylvania. A suburb of philadelphia. Good morning. Those suburbs are what were going to be watching, right . They have so key. Good morning to you, sarah. Thats right. Its important because suburban areas around philadelphia actually make up a fifth of the voting population of the entire state and the decisions that the voters make at the polls here today can make a critical difference in which way the state goes. It has gone democratic the last 7 out of 10 president ial contests. 4. 2 million are democrats compared to 3. 3 million republicans and while the latest polls show clinton in the lead pennsylvania is still considered a battleground very much so. Part of the reason outside of the urban centers of pill fill and pittsburgh many voters are feeling economic pain. In some cases from the loss of manufacturing jobs and other cases coal miners. Chester county is the real battlefield while it typically votes republicans. The county voted for obama in 2008 but then chose romney by 529 votes in 2012 both candidates spent a lot of time courting voters here. Theyre not necessarily sold on one candidate. Im voting for donald trump. Not because he was what i would consider the ideal individual but im voting for an administration. Im really voting for a policy for policies. Im voting for Hillary Clinton. She has had a life of Public Service and i think that she is by no means perfect but im not voting for her based on her personality so must have as the fact that she had a really incredible political life and career. Interestingly enough we talked two about two dozen voters and both of them have voted for democrats and republican in the past and consider themselves independent and most of them plan on voting straight ticket. We havent seen early voting in this state. Is that why the democrats are feeling nervous even though its in the blue map. Exactly. Hillary has been here four days in a row. At this point its about the increase in the turn out and getting those voters to the polls. Getting the huge Democratic Base here to the polls. Well see turn out. Thank you for joining us live from Chester County pennsylvania. Light blue which now has Hillary Clinton up to 72 in materials of the odds and donald trump at 28 moving on the last few polls in the last few hours. And pennsylvania last time it was republican was the reagan era and george bush senior after that and some similarities some people try to point to. Its that disparity between urban areas and the philadelphias and the pittsburghs and some of the more rural suburbs. Theres an education gap and the gender graphics will be fascinati fascinating. Research shows the markets tend to be fairly predictable afterwards. What could be on the cards for stocks once votes are in. Good morning. Thats right. Typically in the week before the election wall street rallies going back to 1928. The s p 500 posted an average gain of 1. 8 however the index was down as the polls tighten before yesterdays rally. So how do stocks perform after the election . The s p 500 dropped in three of the past five elections in the week after the election today according today at a when obama won in 2008 the s p fell nearly 11 after rising 7 in the week before the election but do remember we were in the throws of the Global Financial crisis at that time but there are specific stock sectors that could benefit a republican victory in the white house and congress could be positive for Pharmaceuticals Energy and financials because theyre pro business and not as strict on regulations. However if democrats succeed they could get a boost as clinton has made increasing wages a priority. Health care could also benefit as the odds of expanding obamacare would go up. One sector that doesnt care who wins is defense as military spending will likely increase no matter who is in the white house amid Global Threats such as isis, North Carolina and russia. Back to you. Thank you very much for that. On a programming note dont miss the main event right here on cnbc. Our decision zone. Well bring you live coverage from affiliates across the country. Theres few items on the agenda other than the election. The monthly Small Business survey comes out this morning and the jolts and Labor Turnover survey today. Its a good indication of the labor market and fed speak. Charlie evans speaking at the council on Foreign Relations this morning and at ubs this afterno afternoon. Look for results from value yacht and d. R. Horton before the opening bell. Tensions will run high. Well find out what it could mean for markets and the economy next. Heres what the former treasury secretary had to say about this election. It comes down to character and temperament and ability to work across the aisle and i watched the secretary clinton when she was a senator do that and also i would take you learn a lot when youre secretary of state and to me i take that experience any day and i, you know, i said what i was going to say about donald trump in the Washington Post and i cant sign on to this sort of pop you lichl thats rooted in ignorance and fear and prejudice. And i find it aborent. Lets get you up to speed on election day. Were down fractionally. Nine points for the dow. Significant gains yesterday. Over 2 for all three of the major indices. 10 out of 11 s p sectors up more than 1 . 6 out of 11 were up more than 2 so it was broad and big balancing back after significant momentum to the down side last week but in one single day. Treading water here in the u. S. And ahead of europe ahead of the results which we will get overnight tonight but we have news that they are still trying to con if i recall production cuts and of course we will be looking at the opec meeting after we get through election day today. Were bouncing again today 45. 05 for wti election. Did you call me election. I did i have things in my ear at the same thing. Election sarah, the expert. On that note, today marks the end of a dramatic Campaign Season with memorable memos that will certainly make history. Heres a look back at some of stand outs. Donald j. Trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of muslims entering the United States until our countries representatives can figure out what the hell is going on. We have no choice. We have no choice. You can put half of Trump Supporters into what i call the basket of deplorables. Right . The racists sexist, homophobic, islamaphobic you name it. And unfortunately there are people like that. He tweets and retweets. Their offensive, hateful, mean spirited rhetoric. Now some of those folks they are irredeemable but thankfully they are not america. Tonight we reached a milestone in our nations march toward a more perfect union. The first time that a major party has nominated a woman for president. Now weather could also play an Important Role in todays voter turn out. Jane joins us with our National Election day weather forecast. On this election day we have a front that divides the country literally from the great lakes down to the south. This will bring rain today although it will be moving from west to east throughout the day. So morning rain in places like illinois, states, indiana. Rain midday. Showers into ohio by the end of the day here. Go out and vote early before the rain gets in there. East coast a lot of High Pressure and mild temperatures actually and in the west thats the story. The warmth. Record warmth in the northwest including washington state. California looks warm today. In fact hot in southern california. Lets talk North Carolina. We have nice and mild conditions. Temperatures hit 70 in charlotte. 69 in raleigh. No rain in the forecast here. We will have a dry day although starring on a cool note in the morning so temperatures changing a lot from morning to afternoon. If youre going to vote, if youre voting early youll need a jacket there. Umbrellas by the end of the day here in ohio including columbus and cleveland and the rain moving in and then your forecast in arizona where conditions are nice and sunny and warm and temperatures hitting 90s and phoenix going to 89 degrees with sunshine today. Thats your lunch day forecast. Back to you. Wilfred i just checked Fort Lauderdale and miami 74 and sunny. They have no excuse not to come out. No one has any excuse either way. Thats so true but always warmer weather could help with turn out. Remember how crazy stormy it was on the brexit day. We cant talk about brexit day. Jim is going to get upset. Did you not have a flash back. That rain was extraordinary for a couple of hours but it didnt effect turn out. Maybe it effected the younger turn out. They didnt show up so must have. Lots of factors at play. Yes and well still talk about brexit. Well check in on the Global Markets. But as we head to break heres what Lee Cooperman makes of this election. I think the people in favor of donald trump are basically saying i know what i George Anthony when i get Hillary Clinton and i dont want that. Im not sure what i get when i get donald trump. Ill take my chances. Your path to retirement may not always be clear. But at t. Rowe price, we can help guide your retirement savings. So wherever your Retirement Journey takes you, we can help you reach your goals. Call us or your advisor t. Rowe price. Invest with confidence. Yeah. Well, we gotta hand it thto fedex. Glasses. Theyve helped make our ecommerce so easy, and now were getting all kinds of new customers. I know. Can you believe were getting orders from canada, ireland. This ones going to new zealand. New zealand . Psst. Ah, false alarm. Hey you guys are gonna scare away the deer idiots. Providing Global Access for Small Business. Fedex. Welcome back and good morning. This election day dow futures are down one point. This comes after the best day since march. More than 2 rally across the board so were seeing some flatness in the early market here. S p futures are not moving at all and neither are the nasdaq. As for the currency market this is the one krour going to watch because as we start to get results the fx market is open 24 hours a day. Youll see the first reaction here. We saw the pound plunge. And the pound is strong and the dollar is stronger against the japanese yen. A lot of people watching that one because if theres any surprise in any negative way more democrats sweeping or trump getting more momentum than expected. According to strategists the yen could strengthen and the dollar sell off. The most liquidity overnight. Thats traditionally a very liquid pair anyway. Coming off of a steep slide last week slowly making ground back. Wti crossing back above 45 barrel. Brent 4645. Up. 5 . Gas chart as well higher today. Now for my chart on election day were going deep into the analysis here. The democratics are going to be key. A lot of people are watching the education. Im watching the battle of the gender gap for great charts on this this morning. We do have the first female nominee running for president and we could see the biggest gender voting gap in the entire modern era. The question is will the female vote go overwhelmingly in favor of Hillary Clinton. This is a chart of the gender gap. Democrats to republicans the way female versus male. And its been trending toward democrats. Thats the top end of the range. That sort of spike up in the end. Thats the projected vote well get in this election. Also you had the access hollywood tapes and Donald Trumps treatment and the way he speaks about women. I watch all of these rallies on tv and theres plenty of wil at his rallies. Well see what we get in terms of the gender vote but thats going to be one of the many factors. Gender a big factor. Demographics. Age groups a massive factor. Hugely expected. If they come out. And similarly of the trends we have seen in early voting high latino turn out expected to go strongly. Very low African American turn out which was a demographic that widely supported president obama and might be an area that Hillary Clinton has to make up for. Were not seeing high turn out in the early voting. Well approximate watching those numbers. When we come back, this mornings top story and elections in the global market. Well talk to the chief Global Political analyst at city. Dont miss the main event here. Well begin at 7 00 p. M. Eastern tile. Stay tuned. Whats Critical Thinking like . A basketball costs 14. Whats team spirit worth . cheers whats it worth to talk to your mom . Whats the value of a walk in the woods . The value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. Morgan stanley president ial hopefuls Hillary Clinton and donald trump storming the nation in one final campaign push. Politics and the marks. The dow and s p and nasdaq coming off the best performance since march. Its the day we have all been waiting for. Election day. Worldwide exchange begins right now. Welcome back to Worldwide Exchange on this election day. Im wilfred frost. A very good morning to you from me as well. Lets check in on the New Hampshire<\/a> town with 8 voters. Hillary clinton winning with four votes. The other two votes were split between gary johnson and write in candidate mitt romney. Clinton also won the New Hampshire<\/a> town while trump picked up a victory in millsfield. Both campaigning into the early hours this morning. Donald trump and mike pence making a final stop in michigan. Do you want america to be ruled by the corrupt Political Class<\/a> or do you want america to be ruled by you, the people . Thats what it is. By the people. Meantime Hillary Clinton<\/a> attending a rally in philadelphia. Joined by pill and chelsea and president and mrs. Obamament. I want you to know and spread the word. I want to be president for all americans. Not just some and the people that support me and vote for me i want to be president for everyone because we all have a role to play in building that Better Future<\/a> for our country and for each of you. She had a star studded rally. Much more coverage throughout the show but first lets check on the markets this morning after the giant rally said. Huge rally. Surprisingly big ralliful over 2 of gains for all three of the major u. S indices wiping out a weeks worth of losses. John harwood telling us he didnt think the weekends fbi releases would have a big ill pact on the outcome. Markets disagree. 2 of gains yesterday. Were expecting slight gains this morning but very much muted compared to yesterdays gains. 13 points for the dow. S p a point or so and the nasdaq three or four points. The bond markets also saw an unwind of last weeks moves. Yesterday we have seen the yield hit 1. 8 this morning. And if last week and yesterdays recover is only to go by if we saw a donald trump win we could expect to see equity sale off but bond markets to be bought and fields to fall. Also how overextended stocks were selling nine days in a row. Beyond the fact that the headline removed an overhang of uncertainty. Mike saw that the vix, the volatility index spiking to those 20 levels. Lets show you where we are after the rally yesterday in wall street. The german dax is trading flat. Higher and italy and spain lower. Chinas exports and imports fell more than expected sparking fears that the countrys economic recovery could be in trouble. Exports dropping 7. 3 from a year earlier. Declined 1. 4 . The shanghai composite closing up. 5 and so did hong kong. The nikkei ended last on the session. The china data overall has been a lot better. Potentially this could signal that its a weak Global Economic<\/a> environment. The fact that theyre not getting buyers from around the world. Exactly. The big drop was exports. Imports did fall more than expected as well. But they still have a big trade surplus as well. Its not like theyre suddenly under pressure in terms of their balance and payments and all of that stuff. Lets have a look at broader markets. Not because of the risk on rally but stories and confirmations that they still intend to meet the production cuts. Either way they cut their losing streak and giened around about 2 yesterday. 1. 8 to be precise. Up another. 5 today. 45. 1 for wti. The dollar rallied yesterday. All the u. S. Assets rising yesterday. Today its more muted as are the equity markets. Tra waiting for that election result. We have only around 10 basis points for the dollar in any one direction. Gold prices that rallied on fierce of a Trump Victory<\/a> eased back yesterday and today having fallen 2 yesterday. But yesterday they were about 1279. Thats our watch Board Election<\/a> and into tonight. The boss helping Hillary Clinton<\/a> make her Closing Argument<\/a> to a roaring crowd in philadelphia last night. Bill and Chelsea Clinton<\/a> along with the obamas joined that rally as we mentioned. Earlier in the night donald trump appeared to workers in scranton on the last day of the campaign. Both candidates spent a lot of time in the final days leading up to the election. The battleground has 20 votes up for grabs. And were in Chester County<\/a> pennsylvania. A suburb of philadelphia. Good morning. Those suburbs are what were going to be watching, right . They have so key. Good morning to you, sarah. Thats right. Its important because suburban areas around philadelphia actually make up a fifth of the voting population of the entire state and the decisions that the voters make at the polls here today can make a critical difference in which way the state goes. It has gone democratic the last 7 out of 10 president ial contests. 4. 2 million are democrats compared to 3. 3 million republicans and while the latest polls show clinton in the lead pennsylvania is still considered a battleground very much so. Part of the reason outside of the urban centers of pill fill and pittsburgh many voters are feeling economic pain. In some cases from the loss of manufacturing jobs and other cases coal miners. Chester county is the real battlefield while it typically votes republicans. The county voted for obama in 2008 but then chose romney by 529 votes in 2012 both candidates spent a lot of time courting voters here. Theyre not necessarily sold on one candidate. Im voting for donald trump. Not because he was what i would consider the ideal individual but im voting for an administration. Im really voting for a policy for policies. Im voting for Hillary Clinton<\/a>. She has had a life of Public Service<\/a> and i think that she is by no means perfect but im not voting for her based on her personality so must have as the fact that she had a really incredible political life and career. Interestingly enough we talked two about two dozen voters and both of them have voted for democrats and republican in the past and consider themselves independent and most of them plan on voting straight ticket. We havent seen early voting in this state. Is that why the democrats are feeling nervous even though its in the blue map. Exactly. Hillary has been here four days in a row. At this point its about the increase in the turn out and getting those voters to the polls. Getting the huge Democratic Base<\/a> here to the polls. Well see turn out. Thank you for joining us live from Chester County<\/a> pennsylvania. Light blue which now has Hillary Clinton<\/a> up to 72 in materials of the odds and donald trump at 28 moving on the last few polls in the last few hours. And pennsylvania last time it was republican was the reagan era and george bush senior after that and some similarities some people try to point to. Its that disparity between urban areas and the philadelphias and the pittsburghs and some of the more rural suburbs. Theres an education gap and the gender graphics will be fascinati fascinating. Research shows the markets tend to be fairly predictable afterwards. What could be on the cards for stocks once votes are in. Good morning. Thats right. Typically in the week before the election wall street rallies going back to 1928. The s p 500 posted an average gain of 1. 8 however the index was down as the polls tighten before yesterdays rally. So how do stocks perform after the election . The s p 500 dropped in three of the past five elections in the week after the election today according today at a when obama won in 2008 the s p fell nearly 11 after rising 7 in the week before the election but do remember we were in the throws of the Global Financial<\/a> crisis at that time but there are specific stock sectors that could benefit a republican victory in the white house and congress could be positive for Pharmaceuticals Energy<\/a> and financials because theyre pro business and not as strict on regulations. However if democrats succeed they could get a boost as clinton has made increasing wages a priority. Health care could also benefit as the odds of expanding obamacare would go up. One sector that doesnt care who wins is defense as military spending will likely increase no matter who is in the white house amid Global Threats<\/a> such as isis, North Carolina<\/a> and russia. Back to you. Thank you very much for that. On a programming note dont miss the main event right here on cnbc. Our decision zone. Well bring you live coverage from affiliates across the country. Theres few items on the agenda other than the election. The monthly Small Business<\/a> survey comes out this morning and the jolts and Labor Turnover<\/a> survey today. Its a good indication of the labor market and fed speak. Charlie evans speaking at the council on Foreign Relations<\/a> this morning and at ubs this afterno afternoon. Look for results from value yacht and d. R. Horton before the opening bell. Tensions will run high. Well find out what it could mean for markets and the economy next. Heres what the former treasury secretary had to say about this election. It comes down to character and temperament and ability to work across the aisle and i watched the secretary clinton when she was a senator do that and also i would take you learn a lot when youre secretary of state and to me i take that experience any day and i, you know, i said what i was going to say about donald trump in the Washington Post<\/a> and i cant sign on to this sort of pop you lichl thats rooted in ignorance and fear and prejudice. And i find it aborent. Lets get you up to speed on election day. Were down fractionally. Nine points for the dow. Significant gains yesterday. Over 2 for all three of the major indices. 10 out of 11 s p sectors up more than 1 . 6 out of 11 were up more than 2 so it was broad and big balancing back after significant momentum to the down side last week but in one single day. Treading water here in the u. S. And ahead of europe ahead of the results which we will get overnight tonight but we have news that they are still trying to con if i recall production cuts and of course we will be looking at the opec meeting after we get through election day today. Were bouncing again today 45. 05 for wti election. Did you call me election. I did i have things in my ear at the same thing. Election sarah, the expert. On that note, today marks the end of a dramatic Campaign Season<\/a> with memorable memos that will certainly make history. Heres a look back at some of stand outs. Donald j. Trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of muslims entering the United States<\/a> until our countries representatives can figure out what the hell is going on. We have no choice. We have no choice. You can put half of Trump Supporters<\/a> into what i call the basket of deplorables. Right . The racists sexist, homophobic, islamaphobic you name it. And unfortunately there are people like that. He tweets and retweets. Their offensive, hateful, mean spirited rhetoric. Now some of those folks they are irredeemable but thankfully they are not america. Tonight we reached a milestone in our nations march toward a more perfect union. The first time that a major party has nominated a woman for president. Now weather could also play an Important Role<\/a> in todays voter turn out. Jane joins us with our National Election<\/a> day weather forecast. On this election day we have a front that divides the country literally from the great lakes down to the south. This will bring rain today although it will be moving from west to east throughout the day. So morning rain in places like illinois, states, indiana. Rain midday. Showers into ohio by the end of the day here. Go out and vote early before the rain gets in there. East coast a lot of High Pressure<\/a> and mild temperatures actually and in the west thats the story. The warmth. Record warmth in the northwest including washington state. California looks warm today. In fact hot in southern california. Lets talk North Carolina<\/a>. We have nice and mild conditions. Temperatures hit 70 in charlotte. 69 in raleigh. No rain in the forecast here. We will have a dry day although starring on a cool note in the morning so temperatures changing a lot from morning to afternoon. If youre going to vote, if youre voting early youll need a jacket there. Umbrellas by the end of the day here in ohio including columbus and cleveland and the rain moving in and then your forecast in arizona where conditions are nice and sunny and warm and temperatures hitting 90s and phoenix going to 89 degrees with sunshine today. Thats your lunch day forecast. Back to you. Wilfred i just checked Fort Lauderdale<\/a> and miami 74 and sunny. They have no excuse not to come out. No one has any excuse either way. Thats so true but always warmer weather could help with turn out. Remember how crazy stormy it was on the brexit day. We cant talk about brexit day. Jim is going to get upset. Did you not have a flash back. That rain was extraordinary for a couple of hours but it didnt effect turn out. Maybe it effected the younger turn out. They didnt show up so must have. Lots of factors at play. Yes and well still talk about brexit. Well check in on the Global Markets<\/a>. But as we head to break heres what Lee Cooperman<\/a> makes of this election. I think the people in favor of donald trump are basically saying i know what i George Anthony<\/a> when i get Hillary Clinton<\/a> and i dont want that. Im not sure what i get when i get donald trump. Ill take my chances. Your path to retirement may not always be clear. But at t. Rowe price, we can help guide your retirement savings. So wherever your Retirement Journey<\/a> takes you, we can help you reach your goals. Call us or your advisor t. Rowe price. Invest with confidence. Yeah. Well, we gotta hand it thto fedex. Glasses. Theyve helped make our ecommerce so easy, and now were getting all kinds of new customers. I know. Can you believe were getting orders from canada, ireland. This ones going to new zealand. New zealand . Psst. Ah, false alarm. Hey you guys are gonna scare away the deer idiots. Providing Global Access<\/a> for Small Business<\/a>. Fedex. Welcome back and good morning. This election day dow futures are down one point. This comes after the best day since march. More than 2 rally across the board so were seeing some flatness in the early market here. S p futures are not moving at all and neither are the nasdaq. As for the currency market this is the one krour going to watch because as we start to get results the fx market is open 24 hours a day. Youll see the first reaction here. We saw the pound plunge. And the pound is strong and the dollar is stronger against the japanese yen. A lot of people watching that one because if theres any surprise in any negative way more democrats sweeping or trump getting more momentum than expected. According to strategists the yen could strengthen and the dollar sell off. The most liquidity overnight. Thats traditionally a very liquid pair anyway. Coming off of a steep slide last week slowly making ground back. Wti crossing back above 45 barrel. Brent 4645. Up. 5 . Gas chart as well higher today. Now for my chart on election day were going deep into the analysis here. The democratics are going to be key. A lot of people are watching the education. Im watching the battle of the gender gap for great charts on this this morning. We do have the first female nominee running for president and we could see the biggest gender voting gap in the entire modern era. The question is will the female vote go overwhelmingly in favor of Hillary Clinton<\/a>. This is a chart of the gender gap. Democrats to republicans the way female versus male. And its been trending toward democrats. Thats the top end of the range. That sort of spike up in the end. Thats the projected vote well get in this election. Also you had the access hollywood tapes and Donald Trumps<\/a> treatment and the way he speaks about women. I watch all of these rallies on tv and theres plenty of wil at his rallies. Well see what we get in terms of the gender vote but thats going to be one of the many factors. Gender a big factor. Demographics. Age groups a massive factor. Hugely expected. If they come out. And similarly of the trends we have seen in early voting high latino turn out expected to go strongly. Very low African American<\/a> turn out which was a demographic that widely supported president obama and might be an area that Hillary Clinton<\/a> has to make up for. Were not seeing high turn out in the early voting. Well approximate watching those numbers. When we come back, this mornings top story and elections in the global market. Well talk to the chief Global Political<\/a> analyst at city. Dont miss the main event here. Well begin at 7 00 p. M. Eastern tile. Stay tuned. Whats Critical Thinking<\/a> like . A basketball costs 14. Whats team spirit worth . cheers whats it worth to talk to your mom . Whats the value of a walk in the woods . The value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. Morgan stanley president ial hopefuls Hillary Clinton<\/a> and donald trump storming the nation in one final campaign push. Politics and the marks. The dow and s p and nasdaq coming off the best performance since march. Its the day we have all been waiting for. Election day. Worldwide exchange begins right now. Welcome back to Worldwide Exchange<\/a> on this election day. Im wilfred frost. A very good morning to you from me as well. Lets check in on the Global Markets<\/a> this morning. A very strong rally indeed. All three indices up over 2 . 6 out of the 11 s p sectors are you over 2 themselves and 10 out of 11 were up more than 1 . It was a big rally and broad rally and part of the losses that we had seen last week and of course bucked that trend we had seen nine days in a row of s p declines. We are expected to go back into the red today when the markets opened. But piano 7. 5 and the nasdaq by three points. A similar performance over the last two days in europe. A strong rally yesterday around 1. 5 but were treading water so all eyes on the result and waiting for that. The ftse 100 the only one across continental europe. Asia was more soft. Export data out of china but it was relatively data than the export data and hasnt weighed on markets too significantly. Hong kong and shy hangu shang up. 5 . Oil is on the rise. That could also be supporting stocks. Wti up. 3 this morning but as you can see above that critical 45 barrel level. Brent 3647 up approximate. 5 . As for the 10 year treasury note yield buying of stocks, selling of bonds has been the mantra this week. The tenure above 18el 1. Its flattish in todays session. Its been moving on risk asset. Less on fed ex peckations at this point. Perhaps after the election back to that and the Economic Data<\/a> and the earnings that have better better than expected. As for the dollar this is the number one place to go as we get the results this evening and its open all night long. The euro is a bit pirmer at 11045. The dollar stronger against the yen. It made traction p104. 50. Yesterday on the back of the stock rally and relief that markets expressed over the latest fbi headline around hillary lynn on the. Check the uncertainty factor in gold thats high and thats boosted gold prices over the last few weeks. Theyre a bit firmer this morning at 1284. 60. Moving in the opposite direction of the dollar. Top story today is the election. Polling stations dont open for another 20 minutes the first in the nation votes are in from the tiny New Hampshire<\/a> town with just 8 voters. Hillary clinton got four votes and donald trump got two and the other two votes were split. Trump picked up a victory in millsfield. John harang gewood joins us. A couple of early interesting numbers from New Hampshire<\/a> but overall with all of the latest moves yesterday what is the Key Headlines<\/a> were looking at . Well, Hillary Clinton<\/a> with a narrow but clear lead by normal standards a 4 point lead going into election day would be safe for a candidate. But this is an unpredictable campaign. Donald trump has attracted a demographic, especially those noncollege whites with extraordinary intensity so his hope is that he can draw an extraordinary turn out of those voters in places like pennsylvania, ohio, michigan, to try to break through what appears to be a Hillary Clinton<\/a> lead. But she has an advantage across the Electoral College<\/a> nationally and dont know if she is going to be able to do that. But these campaigns get a whisful tone at the end of them when Donald Trumps<\/a> extraordinary journey that began down that escalator ended in manchester New Hampshire<\/a> where he won the first primary victory and here is what he had to say. Ill sorry. We dont have that sound from donald trump. But donald trump essentially told voters that this is your chance to make those dreams that i talked about. Make America Great<\/a> come true. And he has aroused a passionate following and now the day he doesnt have the same infrastructure and the same turn out operation that Hillary Clinton<\/a> has got but hers is going to be tested today and well see what they both manage to achieve with respect to what they walked into election at a with. Everybody has opinion asking me this question. You are much for suited to answer it. When are we going to know . How late is this going to go tonight . I wouldnt expect it given the lopsided advantage she has held in the Electoral College<\/a> for it to be a nail biter. I would expect based on the trends we saw going into election day she had a clear advantage to more than the 270 she needs. But it depends on who turns out. A lot of the votes have been cast. In the early states and places like florida, nevada, iowa, North Carolina<\/a> and others where you do have early voting. But i would expect the late night cliff hanger more to be what happens in the United States<\/a> senate and whether the democrats can control from republicans. This time yesterday you told us you didnt think the latest weekend fbi development would have a pig impact but we did see a massive market rally 2 . So what do you put that market rally down to . I think the market maybe rallying on that news. Theyre also seeing the same polls that were seeing and to the extent that the market prefers Hillary Clinton<\/a> all the signs at the end are good but the news that came out sunday night is the kind of thing thats not going to move massive voters but may be influential to people looking after election day and whether or not theres going to be some sort of legal proceeding against Hillary Clinton<\/a>. Now we know there isnt going to be. Every election has its star states. Usually ohio is that star. Feels like this time its North Carolina<\/a>. Polls close there at 7 30 and florida polls close there at 8 00 p. M. If she wins one or both of those we could have an earlier night, correct . Yeah. Its very difficult for him, taking North Carolina<\/a> for example. Thats a state mitt romney carried. He had only 206 electoral votes. Donald trump has to start adding to that total to get up to 270. He would got backwards if she wins North Carolina<\/a>. That makes the hill steeper and florida, is there is no possible way for donald trump to get to 270 without florida. 29 electoral votes. Its going to be difficult to do. Not impossible but difficult. Well bring you all the details you need throughout the day here on cnbc. Joining us now is the chief Global Political<\/a> analyst at citi. Good morning to you. Thank you for joining us. I was reading your latest note that came out over the weekend. You put Donald Trumps<\/a> chances at 25 to 40 . Where within that range are you this morning . Well, i have been more cautious than consensus i think about the polls. Partly i suppose its a little bit of brexit posttraumatic stress disorder but i have questions about whether the polls are capturing the views of marginalized voters. So the base case is the Hillary Clinton<\/a> presidency but the possibility of a trump outcome is nonnegligible and theres paths for him to get to victory and that turns on how turn out plays out. And if that is the case with markets after yesterdays giant rally what would be the res reaction . What is priced in at this point . Markets are expecting a Hillary Clinton<\/a> victory. Its also important such as composition in congress and what it looks like afterwards. I think a Hillary Clinton<\/a>th sy doesnt mean an end to investigations at all. Theyre still investigating the Clinton Global Foundation<\/a> and real possibility of gridlock so typically in the 48 hours after an election markets do tend to do more heavy trading and i think that we could have quite a choppy session. The other thing id say when you ask about the Market Reaction<\/a> is im not discounting the possibility that theres irregularity that delays an announcement before the market open in asia and here and possibly even in new york. And what would you expect if we saw something, for example, like Hillary Clinton<\/a> winning the Electoral College<\/a> vote but donald trump winning the popular vote. Could that lead to significant political unrest in the u. S. Even though the result is known. I dont think so. I mean that situation where theres a split between the National Vote<\/a> and the Electoral College<\/a> has happened four times in history and although it can strike people as unfair and of course al gore was the most recent example of this having won the National Vote<\/a> and lost the Electoral College<\/a> is not a constitutional crisis because we had a procedure and the loser accepts the results. So i would expect lots of noise and complaining but there isnt really a way back from that. So what were you referring to when you said that there is a scenario under which the markets could still face uncertainty with no election result by the morning. No winner declared because there has to be a recount for example and remember back in 2000 we had a couple of weeks of uncertainty and al gore did not concede defeat and it went to the supreme court. What im suggesting if these have to be resolved at the state level. The if that happens there could be a delay in a result. The other post playsibility is, know, trump has said many times if he loses it will be because the system is rigged and he wont concede defeat. At the top of the interview you did mention posttraumatic stress memories of brexit. Youre based in london. Do you think theres an issue with u. S. Commentators that they just dont quite capture that possibility of a wildcard of higher turn out that we did see for the brexit vote . The difficulty is if you are a forecaster is that youre relying on past data. The same with economists and what goes into models. So the fact that for example we have got significantly higher hispanic turn out is not accounted for. The pollsters that do them tried to do that but theyre still tinkering based on past data and when you have a new event theres no way to make that right. Which state are you most at odds with with the current consensus polls as you say . State polls dont interest me that much because i talked to investors and i talk to Global Markets<\/a> so im very focused on, you know, the macro out comes and the wildcards or black swans. Im concerned about a tie in the Electoral College<\/a>. You talk about things that might not feel fair and result in upheaval or noise at least that will be one. If Hillary Clinton<\/a> comes in with 262 votes and no one is the winner the republican dominated house of representatives decides. These kind of tail risk outcomes are the things that im focussing on. I let the pollsters do the polls. Thank you for joining us. On a programming note dont miss the main event here tonight. Decision zone will bring you live coverage from nbc affiliates across the country with real time news and analysis as results come in. The Election Special<\/a> begins at 7 00 p. M. Eastern time. When we come back todays must reads but first as we head to break heres jamie dimon sharing what he hopes comes out of this election. Everyone except donald trump and this is a true story, came forward within the party and was experienced in politics. Every single one except donald trump and the other one was Ike Eisenhower<\/a> in 1952. So i guess its very hard. I just hope that the next president does the right things and drops this rhetoric about democrat republican. Who cares . You get used to sweaty odors in your car, you think it smells fine but your passengers smell this. Eliminate odors youve gone noseblind to for up to 30 days with the febreze car vent clip break out the febreze, and [inhale exhale mnemonic] breathe happy. Now to the stories getting our attention. My pick in the New York Times<\/a> writing what 2016 has caught us. Theres going to be a lot of these post mortems of the crazy election. One thing is that americans of all backgrounds whites blacks latinos, men, women, people in Rural Communities<\/a> have had in common. Theyre worried about their economic future. The country experienced the longest depression since the Great Recession<\/a> and income inequality has been worse than at any time since the 1920s. I think back to our wheel house in this election which has been trade which has been such a heated political punching bag on both sides of the aisle as a way to blame someone for some of americas economic woes and manufacturing and low wagers and millions of the populations that are still temporary. Temporarily working for economic reasons or looking for a job so that is certainly one of the takeaways. Certainly. Id say not just in the u. S. But particularly in the u. S. What is clear whoever wins is where the median political point of view is, particularly on issues like trade and i think sit much further to the right on certain issues than a lot of people had expected. Further to the lef it shall well its all blurred right now. Not a traditional right view left debate. It isnt. But its away from where people thought it was. Donald trump has zeroed in on this anger and economic frustration. He started his campaign by blaming china and mexico for stealing our jobs. Its a theme he stuck with throughout the whole campaign. The Financial Times<\/a> its titled u. S. Election country risk first. Heres a quote. It is odd how treasury yields eased as mr. Trump gained in the polls. He questioned the independence of the fed chair and expoused trade barriers. The run of stocks an high yield bonds through the obama years cou should cool. Thats a massive point. Its usually a safe haven. Bonds within the u. S. Are traditionally the safe haven asset class and lots of questions depending on the result whether the u. S. Can maintain that. Particularly if it starts to pull away from global trade. Will the u. S. Dollar still be the safe haven currency of choice or not . Well have to wait and see but that move in bonds is a very interesting point. And also what fiscal policy is realistic. Mike of j. P. Morgan publishing last night theres no precedent for a fed chair to step down after the election. Donald trump if he does win has made janet yellen so mitt cal but he could reappoint someone with cause. Thats a wildcard to some extent as well. Also if theres a market turmoil event then this whole 80 odds that the feds raises rates in tess could also be. Saying this morning that its very dangerous to politicize Central Banks<\/a> at a time when policy is at such an extreme hefl. Were so dependent. But if you change that all of a sudden investors can get spooked very quickly. Another flash back to brexit. Remember when mark carney weighed in. Lots more to discuss. More market insight. He joins us next. Heres black stones Steve Schwarzman<\/a> weighing in with his views of the election. People are a bit curious and uncertain how the u. S. Whole election process got to be so odd. Whether its a socialist winning 22 or 23 states as a democrat or you know someone who has no political experience on the other side on the republicans becoming so visible. And everybody juawants to know because the u. S. Is the dominant economic power in the world and the dominant military power. And i think it makes people feel unsettled regarding the United States<\/a>. Cathys gotten used to the smell of lingering garbage. In her kitchen yup, shes gone noseblind. She thinks it smells fine, but her guests smell this. Ding, flies, meow febreze air effects heavy duty has up to. Two times the odoreliminating power to. Remove odors youve done noseblind to [inhales] mmm. Use febreze air effects, till its fresh and try febreze small spaces. To continuously eliminate up to two times the odors. For 30 days febreze small spaces and air effects, two more ways. [inhale exhale mnemonic] to breathe happy. The dow futures are positive just barely. S p is red after a giant move yesterday higher. Best move since march for the major indies. Joining us is the executive director of u. S. Equities and strategies. Good morning. Good morning. Where are we after the big rally broad based. So basically what yesterday did was reinforce this idea of all the number of possibility outcomes, you know, how the Congress Ends<\/a> up, the presidency contested uncontested, the base case which is essentially the status quo rose in the minds of investors so from that perspective there is a feeling of incrementally less uncertainty today than there was say friday. Now of course what are the way to protect against further volatility. Certainly you can own down side puts. Selling out money calls to protect against it but interestingly enough what we saw at the end of the week were people taking advantage of the exceptionally high volatility and the uncertainty by putting on strategies that volatility would decline which is a lot of what we saw yesterday and timpic wi typically what we might see to the extend that people unwind hedges after the result. Its assuming that we have that resolution. Markets moved a day or two early. Correct. What does that mean if she does win this election . Again if its an uncontested outcome, america coming together, we would expect the markets to stay firm and to your end your typical 4th quarter rally. And expanding on that, if we do see a Trump Victory<\/a> do we go back to having a much bigger than expected down side risk price then . Not necessarily. Theres an element to again how the markets moved in terms of expectations and thats in the expectation that isnt being, you know, counted on so there will be some volatility but again the important thing is that markets move in the longterm based on the economy and earnings and regardless of how the election comes out in the next 24 hours both of those look good into 2017. What are your plans tonight . We read this morning in reuters that some of the asia focus banks are boosting their staff levels. Having a little brexit flash back. Clearly well be watching the dollar for first reaction. High caffeine green tea. Lots of report writing. Hopefully well have an outcome that we can understand and get our arms around by say midnight or whatever and take it one day at a time at this point. The dollar yen for example would that be the first place that people will look at . Certainly. Certainly. But as we saw with the u. K. Referendum there will be some hedging and trading in the stock Index Futures<\/a> as well. No question. Thank you for joining us this morning. Thank you. Before we go, we want to take a look right now at Richmond Virginia<\/a> where senator tim kaine Vice President<\/a> ial candidate with Hillary Clinton<\/a> is voting a little before 6 00 a. M. Nice and early. Getting started and voting. We take shots of all the candidates and their vp picks voting to expect a lot of this throughout the day. He was in a rally last night in Northern Virginia<\/a> in richmond. Casting his vote. Ill sure we can predict which way thats gone. Yeah. Likely for himself and Hillary Clinton<\/a>. That does it for us here. Squawk box is next. Been planning for this for a long time and well keep evolving things. So dont worry. Knowing you is how edward jones makes sense of investing. Whats going on here . Im val, the orange money retirement squirrel from voya. Were putting away acorns. You know, to show the importance of saving for the future. So youre sort of like a Spokes Person<\/a> . More of a spokes metaphor. Get organized at voya. Com. Good morning the wait is finally over. Hillary clinton and donald trump storming the nation in one final campaign push. Politics and the markets. The futures pointing to a flat start on wall street this morning after the dow s p and nasdaq posted their best performance since march. Its november 8th, 2016 and this special election edition of squawk box begins right now. Live from new york where business never sleeps, this is squawk box. Good morning. Welcome squawk box here on cnbc. We do have the music this morning here on election day. Ill Andrew Ross Sorkin<\/a> with joe kernan and melissa lee. Joe is doing a little orchestration there. Polls are opening in many states including connecticut, maine, new jersey, new york, virginia and parts of indiana and kentucky. Youre looking now at a live shot from richmond vishlg virginia where Vice President<\/a> ial candidate tim kaine is casting his ballot. We have a busy morning of election coverage planned. Pollsters Business Leaders<\/a> and market watchers and reporters are spanning the country in battleground states including florida, ohio, arizona, colorado, pennsylvania and indiana and of course theyll bring us live reports throughout the day and then tonight at 7 00 p. M. Eastern dont miss it","publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"archive.org","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","width":"800","height":"600","url":"\/\/ia801703.us.archive.org\/3\/items\/CNBC_20161108_100000_Worldwide_Exchange\/CNBC_20161108_100000_Worldwide_Exchange.thumbs\/CNBC_20161108_100000_Worldwide_Exchange_000001.jpg"}},"autauthor":{"@type":"Organization"},"author":{"sameAs":"archive.org","name":"archive.org"}}],"coverageEndTime":"20240626T12:35:10+00:00"}