Exchange, joining me today is kayla tausche. Coming to you live from washington, d. C. Where the world bank and imf are holding their spring meetings. Wilfred frost is on the ground in paris ahead of the French Election this weekend. Well get to him in a bit. Its nice to have you. Obviously weve chosen our music play list accordingly. Its nice to have you in my new city. Its Throwback Thursday, which is why you may recognize this song from several years ago. A special girl power edition of Worldwide Exchange. Throwing back to a few months ago when we worked in the same city. I will quiz you on washington in a moment. First, lets get to the Global Market picture. As for u. S. Futures, after a more than triple digit slide for the dow yesterday, down 117, ibm accounted for 57 of those down points as we continue to watch earnings. Things look firmer this morning. Dow futures up 36 1 2 points. S p up 5. Nasdaq up 16. Well get to amex earnings in a bit. Better than expected. Signs of life from the consumer. As for the tenyear treasury note yield, been a driver of the action lately. Seeing yields tick back up yesterday. They continued to do so this morning at 223 is your tenyear treasury yield. Still hovering near the lowest level since november. Activity in asia to tell you about. The focus in china is on some tax cuts on the corporate side that the state is talking about. Also some easing of capital controls. Look at how that simpacti ings shanghai. Slightly in the green. Hong kong up 1 . Japan, where march export data showed stronger than expected exports, up 12 the past year, japan roughly flat as well. Look at whats happening in europe. Well focus on the French Election and what that surprise call for a snap uk election might mean for what the bank of england does. Thats in focus today. A lot of analysts weighing in on that look at how europe is reacting. If we can get those charts up. You can see germany is slightly firmer. France up by 1 . Ftse slightly lower. Spain is up about 1 as well. Ftse had a rough few days. Been down nearly every day this week. As for the Broader Market picture, starting with the currency board. And the u. S. Dollar the action has been in commodities lately. Some nice moves in the market. Stronger euro, 1. 0767. Goes with that stronger france. Strong dollar against the yen, 109. At that level. Stronger british pound at 1. 2835 which is partially why you are seating the ftse 100 in the uk down, and down sharply for the week because of that rise in the british pound. Exporters hate the strength of the pound. Gold prices, on the flip side of what is a mixed picture for the dollar, gold down about a quarter of a percent. 1,280 an ounce. Oil is the big story after yesterdays 3. 8 slide, we watched that 50 a barrel level closely. A nice snap back of 1 , not making up for yesterdays slide. Brent sits at 53. 41, and nat gas getting a pop. Energy dragged down the s p yesterday. Thats our top story. Saudi arabia and kuwait signaling today that opec producers will likely extend a deal with nonopec producers to curb supplies. Lets get to Jackie Deangelis with that story. Good morning. Equity markets very focused on the action in crude yesterday. A 2 slide it seems like it was testing 50, but perhaps an empty threat because we are getting that bounce from the middle east where you mentioned some big owe pk pl opec players are signaling an extension of the opec supply cut. This has been rumored for quite some time. We wont know more about it until the may meeting, may 25th. Some people are saying why would the opec members want to extend this supply cut when shale producers are pumping up . Thats part of what drove down the price yesterday. You have the noise out there and the supply demand fundamentals. When it comes to the noise, its geopolitics, opec. Supply and demand, theres too much crude oil out there. Back to you. What should we watch for, for the next driver of crude oil as we key in on this 50 a barrel level . You have to watch the headlines. This morning the opec producers have a lot of power. When they speak, people listen. That can move the price up as it has now, just about 1 here. Also watch washington closely. Tensions with north korea, actions taking place in syria. These things will move the market as well. Jackie deangelis, thank you very much for the early check on crude oil. Some tough talk on iran late yesterday from secretary of state rex tillerson, tillerson describing the iran deal as a failure and saying the u. S. Will conduct a complete review of its current policy towards iran. Listen. An unchecked iran has the potential to travel the same path as north korea, and take the world along with it. The United States is keen to avoid a second piece of evidence that strategic patience is a failed approach. A comprehensive iran policy requires that we address all the of the threats posed by iran. Its clear there are many. Tillersons comments coming just hours after the state department confirmed that iran was complying with the nuclear deal. Clearly a bit of uncertainty on that geopolitics front added into the mix. Syria, north korea, now with the administration and iran. The president has been critical of the iran deal. He didnt use the same exact language on the campaign trail as dewith trahe did with trade. He never said he wanted to rip it up. He was critical. He was suspicious of it. He called the negotiators incompetent and they are launching a full review. It took years to negotiate. Unclear how long the review will make and what it means that iran already has had 1 100 billion i sanctions relief on the front end. And theyre selling oil. Thats the key here. Iran, unlike, for instance, syria, we watch even closer for the oil market because its a major producer. We are here in d. C. Early today covering the imf and World Bank Spring meetings. We have a big lineup throughout the day. An interview with the former fed chairman, Alan Greenspan coming at 10 00 a. M. Also sitting down with the imf director, Christine Lagarde, 11 00 a. M. On squawk alley. Every time i come into the Imf World Bank meetings here, spring or fall, it usually comes on the back of a downgrade for World Economic growth. Its been so gloomy that the imf ratcheted back their forecast. This time its the opposite. They took it up to 3. 5 growth for this year. Nothing exuberant, but it is an upgrade. But they didnt increase the growth forecast for the United States. True. They did for other countries around the world including the uk by about 2 the u. S. Was the only one they held firm. Likely because of a lot of uncertainty in this area. They are also warning strongly on rising trade po tech shunnism and what that might do to the global economy. Big threat on the horizon could also be a government shutdown. Gop leaders appear to be willing to extend the deadline to fund the government beyond next friday. Well know more when Congress Reconvenes monday. Joining us is the person you wanted to talk to about the budget, stan collander, the budget guy. Thank you for waiting patiently and being here early to talk to us. Of course. Arent you tired of talking about government shutdowns . Well, you might have thought with republicans in control of all branches of government it might be averted. Is that going to happen . For next week almost certainly. Theres not enough time for them to decide what they cant decide. So the chances are there will be an exz tensitension for a week this will come down to donald trump. Congress is likely to send the president a bill that has nothing that he wants. The question is le figwill he f now and shut down the government, veto the bill, or decide until lets wait until 2018. That fight is three months away. We have shortterm funding extensions in september, in december, now were here in april. Talking about a week. Thats what gop leaders are hoping is all they need. But some analysts out there say we could get to october. This could potentially run up against the debt limit debate. How likely is that. The debt limit debate will be a problem not in october but in september. But the end of the governments fiscal year, around the end of september. Around the end of 17, and this fight wont have an impact on the debt ceiling, but in 2018 it will. So they will almost certainly try to wrap that into one big bill and get it done all at the same time, and maybe go to the quif lenequivalent of a nuclear if they cant get an agreement. What will go into the funding bill . So currently an extension of the funding bill. So the president doesnt get the big defense increase . He doesnt, but theyll promise to do that later. Does he get the border wall . No he doesnt get the wall, the planned parenthood defunding or the obama defunding. He almost gets nothing he wants so will he accept that . More importantly, will the Freedom Caucus accept that. This could be disruptive. Where are you on healthcare and as it relates to tax reform . As we understand, theyll go back to the drawing board here and try to get them both done again. Theyve been going back to the drawing board since this didnt pass the first time and they couldnt come up with an agreement. Theyre not much closer along on tax reform. The problem on healthcare, the longer the debate goes on, the more it will have an impact on tax reform. That is once they start doing the 2018 budget and budget resolution, the 2017 resolution that allowed healthcare to happen will be null and void. So theyll have to figure out a way around it. If theres ever been a time for market uncertainty, this is it. None of the established processes, procedures are likely to be followed or be used the way theyve been used in the past. Youre run of the experts on the budget. Theres a debate about whether they can do tax reform, make it revenue neutral through dynamic scoring, Economic Growth without having a border adjustment tax. How does the math look to you . Theres almost certainly an increase in the deficit, maybe a substantial increase. Unlike 1986, when they did the last tax reform, they started by saying it would be deficit neutral. This is a the border adjustment tax is too controversial for most people. Doing away with mortgage Interest Deduction and charitable deduction is too controversial for most people. You indica you. They are banking on sharp tax cuts increasing growths. Stan, good to see you. In person what a treat. Turning to todays agenda. A pair of economic reports are out before the opening bell. Weekly jobless claims and the april philly fed survey will be released at 8 30 a. M. Eastern. At the same time fed governor jay powell will be speaking in washington about Capital Markets and growth. Travelers, verizon, bank of new york, melon and blackstone report this morning. After the close, visa and mattel, and some kov racoverage blackstones business benefiting from trumps policies. Swartzman getting trump to change his view on china. Well see what they say on that front. We have earnings movers to get to, American Express did post a better than expected q1 profit. The companys positive results helped in part by higher spending by card members. Guidance indicating it was starting to mitigate some impact of those key partnerships last year. Most notably the one with cos o costco. The stock is reacting well. Up 2. 5 premarket. Ebays q2 profit falling short of estimates, this after reva revamping. Qualcomm reporting revenue and profit that topped the streets forecast. The positive results easing concerns surrounding the chipmakers dispute with apple. Apple suing qualcomm back in january accusing the company of overcharging for chips and refusing to pay roughly 1 billion in promised rebates. Also having more than a 2 pop. A few more stocks to watch. Csx posting stronger than expected quarterly results. This quarter marking the railroad operators first set of earnings under new ceo hunter harrison. Stock is up nearly 3 . Shares of toshiba ticking higher ahead hopes for its chip business. Reports surfacing that foxconn is planning to get the backing of amazon and dell in its effort to win government approval for that possible 28 billion purchase of the firms semiconductor business. Foxconn will have amazon and dell each take a 10 stake in toshibas chip business and apple would buy a 20 stake. Unilever reporting a rise in underlying sales for q1 as it raised prices. Results are weighed down by weak performance in the europe and u. S. Market. Overseas that stock is flat. In Great Britain that stock is up about 1. 5 . Up next, were going global. Wilfred frost just touching down in paris, would he be jealous that hes missing this show with his two favorite people. Hes in paris, hes flexing his language skills. He likes to prove to me he speaks french fluently. Hell be joining us straight ahead. And were headed to shanghai. Phil lebeau tells us why china could be a big threat to u. S. Automakers. Worldwide exchange returns after this. Hey, ive got the trend analysis. Hey. Hi. Hi. You guys going to the Company Picnic this weekend . Picnics are delightful. Oh, wish we could. But were stuck here catching up on claims. But we just compared historical claims to coverages. But we have those new audits. My natural language api can help us score those by noon. Great. See you guys there. We would not miss it. Watson, you gotta learn how to take a hint. I love to learn. Welcome back to Worldwide Exchange. The countdown is on. Just three days to go until the first round of the french president ial election. The race couldnt be tighter. Wilfred frost just landed in paris. He joins us with more. Youre missing the party in washington with me and kayla. I cant believe you got to choose your own Throwback Thursday theme. Thats not fair, very antiwilf. The other thing i want to clear up is that i never claimed to speech french fluently [ speaking french ] so three days to go until the election. Four polling around the 20 level. Lets look at who is leakly to win the most votes this sunday. The answer is very clear, Marine Le Pen oddson favorite at 4 5. The leader of the farright, antieuro. None of those candidates likely to win more than 50 . That means well go to a secondround runoff two weeks later between the top two candidates in the first round. Lets look at who is likely to come out of this process as frances next president. Le pen slips two places to third place. The third to be president. Emanuel macron the centrist independent. Why is it that Marine Le Pen slips in between those two rounds . Its thought in the second round in french politics, voters will unite against the outsider and favor the centrist candidate and come together to make sure that an outsider doesnt get in. Of course we looked at odds before over the course of 2016 with the brexit vote, the u. S. President ial election. Its been wrong before. So could it be wrong again here . I interviewed the head of research at predata yesterday, aaron times. He focuses on attraction of campaigns as opposed to traditional methods, i asked whether its possible that the chances of Marine Le Pen coming out of this as the next french president were being underestimated. Our modeling of the Digital Campaign today suggests that le pen is in with a much better shot of winning the second round should she qualify for it. Were not seeing the overwhelmingly negative picture that meerms fr emerges from the. I also asked him if they had done the same analysis going into brexit and the u. S. Election. We didnt do it for brexit. We did do it for the u. S. Election. We monitored the Digital Campaign in the 12 battleground states. The signals that we built around that accurately captured the fact that the battleground states swung behind donald trump. Its a mode of analysis with a track record, though every election is different. The bottom line is with just three days to go, this is historically divided and historically close and why markets have priced in the downside risks. Wilf, the risk is the official polls having very different results from the straw polls, when you talk to people walking around, you know, in the back of your live shot there. What are the people on the ground in paris saying . How polarizing is this election to them compared to other elections you mentioned . Well, just literally i touched down. Tomorrow well have much more details of people on the street, but the risk is whether in the second round that traditional belief that people will unite around a centrist candidate doesnt carry out. The fact that there are four in with a chance of winning it increases the chances that thats not the case. Traditionally this was a twoparty system. The president s of the last 40 years have been from the two main parties, socialist and republican and for the last 60 years they reached the final stage, one of them has it is looking possible that neither will this time. That raises uncertainty and the possibility that we get a surprise result. Well see you later in the show good to have you there. Look forward to it. Wilfred frost in paris. Up next on Worldwide Exchange, could a trade war with china bring u. S. Car sales to a screeching halt . Well have that story live from shanghai. Youre watching Worldwide Exchange on cnbc. Welcome back. We head to asia where auto sales have been in the drive, but new concerns about trade have some questioning whether or not this upward trend can continue. Phil lebeau is live from the gm cadillac plant in shanghai, where the cars behind you are rolling right off the assembly line. Reporter this is the second newest plant that General Motors has in china. Its interesting when you walk around here compared to other plants in north america or elsewhere, its quieter, far more advanced, the most advanced plant that General Motors has. This plant biuilds the ctx plugin hybrid, a vehicle that will be exported to the United States and sold in the discussion. There has been a lot of discussion sin