if the governor gets recalled tomorrow, it's going to be a polling miss for the ages. gavin newsom is heavily favored. it doesn't mean he'll necessarily win, but it would be quite surprising to me as someone who studies the numbers. >> how is elder doing and why is he doing well? >> well, what is doing well, right? he leads in that second round. but that doesn't necessarily mean that most of the people who say they're going to vote in the second round want him. he's only at 31% of the vote. someone else blank don't note at 69% of the vote. compare that to the last recall in 2003 that schwarzenegger won. he was at 46% of the vote. 15 points ahead of where elder is right now. so that when voters are not just wondering about whether or not who i want to vote for in the second round, but who do i want to vote for in the first round, maybe i don't necessarily want elder. that wasn't a problem for schs schwarzenegger in 2003.