it's very, very close. you know what? take a look here. it gives you an understanding of why at this point a two-point race with the leader at 21% doesn't tell you a whole heck of a lot. i took a look at where the person went on to win one to two months before the caucuses. the undecides allocated. take a look here. the median difference between where the person who went on to win the caucuses was polling and where they ended up was 9 percentage points. a lot of things can change. some years the polls are accurate. last time around ted cruz was at 31%, he got 28%. some years -- >> look at 2000, the republicans were polling -- >> that was george walker bush. there was only one poll in that average. there are a lot of potential errors, but a lot of things can