is it over before it begins? i'm michael smerconish in philadelphia. before a single primary vote has been cast, has donald trump already sown up the 2024 gop nomination, or is it still up for grabs? everybody has an opinion, but the data tells a pretty compelling story. peggy noonan in the "wall street journal" writing this week, i refuse to see the story is over. the voting begins now. after chris christie dropped out, "the new york times" wrote, the christie vote alone will probably not be enough, but haley has been steadily gaining in the polls and historically there's a lot of precedent for surging candidates to keep gaining, especially over a contest's final days. and new hampshire, which is second up, will be a wild card. independents can vote in the gop primary, and according to data released yesterday from gallup, 43% of americans consider themselves to be independent.