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CNNW CNN July 3, 2024

My name is oluseyi and some of my favorite moments throughout my life are watching sports with my dad. Now, i work at comcast as part of the team that created our ai highlights technology, which uses ai to detect the major plays in a sports game. Giving millions of fans, like my dad and me, new ways of catching up on their favorite sport. Go to deal dash. Com right now and see how much you can save im evan perez and washington. And this is cnn we wanted to see in. A newsroom. Im jim sciutto in washington. We are following Breaking News in the middle east. The Israeli Military now says that iran and its proxy forces in iraq, yemen, and lebanon launched some 350 rockets, drones, missiles into its territory Overnight Turron says the attack is a response to a Deadly Strike on its consulate in damascus, which its blamed on israel to rod is warning any new aggression from israel will be met with a quote, heavier and regrettable response the idf says, it quotes successfully thwarted about 99 of those missiles and drones with the help of allies in the region, including the us and the uk. Tonight, the Un Security Council is holding an Emergency Meeting amid fears of a broader regional conflict. Us Deputy Ambassador to the un just moments ago, sent this warning if iran or its proxies take actions against the United States are further action against israel iran will be held responsible because really war cabinet says it has not reached a decision on its response, but is determined to act in some way with me. Now cnns Nic Robertson and jerusalem Priscilla Alvarez at the white house, nick first with you. We dont know what options the Israeli Cabinet might choose, but do we have any sense of the timeline on its decision we dont either because despite the fact that the war cabinet mad for almost five hours, the conclusion was they want more time to figure out the scale eylon scope1 timing of their followon response. What we do know as well as that theyve asked the idf to come up with more options. We know that the Prime Minister is under pressure from members of his rightwing cabinet. Of course, they dont sit around the table in the war cabinet, but it may ben gvir bezel, smotrich, her both called on the Prime Minister to take a tougher line reinforced to terrence be the aggressive landlord in the words of Itamar Ben Gvir smashed the crockery, if you will and send a very strong signal to two ron that israel wont wont take a strike on its territory like this without a response that signifies deterrence to iran not to do it again, but from irans perspective around believes that it has now sort of turn the tables on the fact that it hasnt responded directly to braille in the past for the killing of a number of its senior irgc commander has over the past few months and other other attacks going back way before that iran feels it now has the deterrence in its hands. The deter israel from striking it. This interests in the region. So this is a moment for the, for the government here. And the war cabinet in particular, to figure out how they retake the initiative and the impression we get is that israel does want to respond somehow. But very clearly hasnt decided quite yet. How big that response should be, or when theres consideration going into it, jim if if iranian officials are strikes me, if iranian officials are saying they have now reset the bar to the point at which where if israel attacks any iranian asset anywhere it will now strike or at least retain the option of striking israeli territory directly. I wonder how israeli officials read that apparent new bar. And do they then feel pressure . And this is the trouble of course, with escalation. Do they feel pressure to reset the bar from their own perspective . I think when you look at it from israels perspective, the bar has always been set that israel is the one that keeps its footing in a region that it believes is hostile to it by showing end, by showing anyone that attack said it will deter them from doing that again, it has a maximalist responses the way its dealing with hamas inside of gaza, its the way it deals with multiple threats. So this is, if you will, a conundrum for israel to cross. Now, is it going to forego deterrence that seems hugely unlikely, but prison safely, how to respond, and what targets to choose. And what capacity to expand to do that, and how that could damage relations with key allies like the United States, because it could tip into a broader escalation. But were on the path of escalation, jimmy, you called it i think last Night A Ladder of escalation and were on that ladder. Weve been on it for awhile. And this is another part of it. And i dont see israel at the moment backing away from wanting to retake and reset the bar of deterrence, whatever iran is saying at the moment we have, of course, the trouble that out right . Is that then each sayyed ends up climbing. That escalation ladder. Nic robertson, thanks so much. Priscilla, to the white house. Now, what is the White House Level of concern that this could escalate . It, it seems theres a deliberate effort by white house officials to accentuate the positive to some degree to say, listen, israel call this a win 99 of these things were struck down. There was great Regional Cooperation in defending israel. I suppose the question is, does the white house believed that message is landing with israeli officials . Well, and it is those public statements that goes to show how concern the white house is about this escalating for months now, the white house has tried to avoid this regional conflict, widening any further. And so in this moment, they are still focused on trying to contain that risk by telling israel that they should consider for this largely a success and for them to take the win and also reiterating that the us will not participate in an offensive against iran again, because of the concern in an already a tense situation. Now, the president did speak to the g7 liters earlier today. And in that conversation he tried to find a diplomatic response. In other words, trying to move forward with nonmilitary actions. And in a statement which ill read to you, they said the following quote, with its actions, i ran has further step forward toward the destabilization of the region and risks provoking an uncontrollable regional escalation this must be avoided. We will continue to work to stabilize the situation and avoid further escalations. You can see just through this joint statement from the g7 liters, how top of mind it is for this not to escalate in the region. And again, the president in his conversation with these really Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last its night told him to think carefully and strategically about next steps that according to a Senior Administration official, of course, the question is whether the israeli Prime Minister takes the president s advice as we have seen with the war in gaza there have been ribs between President Biden and israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu so the question is, what are the next steps . And can the white house successfully contain this risk of escalation . Yeah. Can any of the parties contain the risk of escalation . Nick, in israel, Priscilla Alvarez there at the white house. Thanks so much for both of you. Lets turn now to a broader analysis joining me now, president and founder of Eurasia Group and g zero media. Ian bremmer, good to have you on even thanks so much for making the time tonight so iran is saying now its response to the Israeli Attack, presumed Israeli Attack on the Consulate Damascus is over. Weve set our missiles were done for now and it cnns reporting that iran actually communicated to turkey prior to this attack what its retaliatory options were, and then turki pass that information onto the us. I wonder if you see those two things as a deliberate effort by iran to it, whether its successful or not. Heres another question, but a deliberate effort at least by iran to put some guardrails around this are sets some limits here. So it doesnt escalate further. Absolutely. Gym or they did that with the Iraqi Government as well. So multiple avenues intended to get the United States to help the us ensure that they could defend against this attack, defend israel. This reminds me so much when the americans were telegraphing through to the iranians through third parties that they were going to get hit after the three American Service Men And Women were killed in jordan on the syria border, the us waited for about a week they didnt want to get involved in a direct war with iran but they wanted to let everyone know they were very serious. So major strikes against the houthis, as well as against proxies in iranian proxies in syria and iraq, but gave the iranians time to get out, gave the iranians time to make this not have to precipitate into further escalation. I think its very clear that that was the iranian intention, but iran wanted to do two things at the same time. They wanted this to be a maximal show of force, to show the world that they took very seriously the fact that their leader on the ground in syria had been killed by the israelis, but they also wanted to minimize the likelihood that there was further escalation that could bring iran into a direct war either with israel and or with the United States. Now, they may have wanted to do both of those two things, but pulling that off is a pretty big trick especially because the us and israel do not see eye to eye right now on the kind of response that should be elicited from on the iranian attack. No question. It seems like there might even be some disagreement within the israeli war cabinet as well but Barack Review of axios on this broadcast last hour, said that in the midst of the attack there was an argument made in the israeli war cabinet to strike back at orawn. Do the retaliation in effect while the iranian attack was still underway, strike iranian targets. Why those missed while those missiles and drones, were still on their way to israel, didnt happen. You have the conversation between biden and netanyahu. I wonder what you think the significance of that is and whether that might have escalated this thing quite quickly in the very midst of it. Well, of course it would have, but as, as youve heard and on your own show, theres a very big difference between not yahoo and his farright coalition. People like smoke trich jim ben gvir, who very much want to use this iranian attack to give israel and excuse to go after Irans Nuclear program, go after the military capabilities of show Israeli Military strength, not just defensive capabilities and preventing an attack, but also go on offense its against iran, but its clearly not supported by benny gantz in the war cabinet. And the very fact of the bear hug from the United States, the uk and other allies. This ironclad support that the United States was providing against any strike from iran on israel. The fact that that was there, it was immediate, it was success testable, constrains, not in yahoo from acting against the rest of his war cabinet and a peep persists. Benny gantz might decide that hes out. Eisenkot might decide that hes out and that would make it right now, not know who looks a lot stronger than he did 48 hours ago because hes leading a country that just was able to rebuff this unprecedented scented strike from iran. Theres more focus on that, less focus on gaza. Thats great for non yeah, if he then persistent saying, i want to strike israel hard, but he doesnt have support for the war cabinet. He suddenly could be pressed and his government could collapse, right . And they could lose that support. So i think that the United States does have levers here, not just internationally, not just with the media, but also internally inside that war cabinet understood. I wonder if you could broaden this out a bit because you said you believe the us and china would stand to lose the most from an expansion of this war. Can you explain why well, i mean, the United States loses a lot because they would be directly involved with israel in a war against iran. Biden would probably lose the election if that would happen. But just also more broadly, its another war that the americans are fighting with all of the consequent impact, implications for Oil Prices Going up and the rest. Now, china, chinas not russia, chinas not iran. Its not north korea, its not part of this axis of resistance in the region. China benefits from stability and their economy its doing really badly right now. So even though the United States hasnt taken any of the trump terrorists off. In fact, Export Controls against china are considerably higher today than they were a couple of years ago. China has been looking not to escalate the temperature because any further instability is just hurting their economy, their us this is big energy exporter. Chinas a Massive Energy importer and particularly from the middle east. They do not want the Straits Of Hormuz to be impassable and im sure they were deeply concerned when they saw that iran itself. And you remember chinas pretty good relations with iran, just like they do audi rebin the uae, iran itself both actually went and boarded. This israeli linked ship just outside of the Straits Of Hormuz. China wants no part of that whatsoever. Yeah and its one of those cases were trying to benefits from this stability, but russia seems to see some personal benefit just from stoking the flames. Ian bremmer, always good to talk to you still ahead. So what does israel do next . The israeli war cabinet met for sometime today. Still no decision on a response. 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