The truth s i think we are winning. New york times, a phony paper. Meanwhile, a confident Hillary Clinton not quite measuring the drapes for the oval office. Not yet, but she goes after trump with both barrels. This is someone who roots for failure and takes glee in mocking our country no matter who our president is. Now, that may be who donald trump is, but this election is about who we are. So lets get right to cnns dana bash and mr. Mark preston. They both join me here in new york. Thats how important this is. Getting down to the wire. Lets start out with the polls. Mark, for you, it shows 5 thats tighter than all the recent National Polls which show clinton well ahead, there wassan one poll who had her 12 out. Right, an abc poll. Anything is possible . He needs to stop offending people, which he seems to do on a daily basis. He needs to stop offending women. He needs to do a better outreef to minor it to get the College Educated white vote who is on the fence about whether they should support him. When holds rallies for instance in gettysberg when he wants to talk about what his plan is to make America Great again he needs to stop prefacing it all these women accusing me of sexual allegations, im going to sue them after the election all that does is cloud the message. He should focus on the economy which he does well on in this poll and try to go forward and try to win night i have heard his supporters saying they dont want to hear him sort of crying for lack of a better word anymore how this is rig. That message doesnt play anymore. The New York Times is not a real paper. They want to hear him talk policy and stop saying that the system is rigged. They call them dark polls. They are phony polls put out by phony media. I will etell you what, all of us are affected by this stuff. What they do is try to suppress the vote this. Way people dont go out and vote. But we are winning this race. I really believe we are winning. I just i dont even know what to say because this is a man who started his rally after rally after rally during the primaries when he was winning talking about the polls. And even at one point, maybe multiple tiles, he even was self aware enough to say i actually only talk about the polls when they are good and when they are not i think they are bad polls. Thats what thats about. I think whats most important here is never mine the polls is the contenant of what he is talking about. Mike pence, his Vice President ial running mate was at an event today and was approa approached by a voter who is a supporter saying can you please get a message to donald trump, tell him to stop talking about all the garbage and talk about the issues. What is the news that came out today . It is that obama cares premiums skyrocketed. 25 , going to go up can you imagine a better argument against Hillary Clinton, against a third term of obama for obama than that . And yet he is is not really talking about it. The little bit that he is, and the little bit that his aides are, they are drowned out by these other things. And you know, peep who are working on his campaign, they cant say this publicly, but they are making it clear, they wish he would just stop talking about this other stuff. Absolutely. But i dont know about the campaign but maybe so when you hear some of the messaging coming out, they seem to be tone deaf, even to some of the people that come on i jokingly say help me help you. Sort of tongue in cheek but certainly better messaging would be a better way the reach people. That doesnt seem to be happening with donald trump when he talks about the polls and the phony polls. His Campaign Manager is a pollster. She would certainly prass them if they existed. And there was a tweet, winning is his thing. Is he stepping on his own message . As with all these things he seems to be. You know w 15 days left to go, why isnt he getting this. He is not stepping on his message, its stomping on his message. The laels that fueled his rise in the Republican Party when he joined and winning the primary have become a narcotic that turned on him. He goes out to the big rallies and he rants about the media. He talks about the establishment. People are riled up. They are shouting you are the best we are with you. Great, were glad certainly he is glad they are with him. That may have been a while ago when there was no conservative media, no fox news, when conservative radio didnt have money of an influence. I would venture to say that the conservative radio and media has more of a influence than Mainstream Media anymore. There is no reason to get that high two or three times a day of standing on a podium and having these people cheer him on. Doesnt need that he needs to get the people who arent cheering him on. Let me give you the yeah, but, i agree with you. Yeah, but. The yeah, but argument from the Trump Campaign and i think the way that they are trying to explain some what have he is doing is that they do have incredibly high numbers in some of these polls. Not just nationally but in the swing states among working class white voters. Much higher than mitt romney and other people had. So by making the argument against the media, against, you know, the poll, everything is rigged, so on and so forth, his hope is to drive that up even further. But the question is, whats the ceiling . I mean, there are only so many of those vote stheers can we talk about the polls since you brought them up. Yes. He said he is ahead in ohio, iowa and doing well in north carolina. There is a Monmouth University poll showing Hillary Clinton ahead 1 point in north carolina. In iowa, trump is ahead by 4 in a poll earlier this month. The problem for him if he wins all three of those states, he still has a very short victory he is still short of a victory, i should say. He has a very narrow path to 270. Thats right. He still has other potential blue states that he has to turn red. He has got to turn New Hampshire or he has to turn pennsylvania for one electoral vote in maine. And so on and so forth. You are right. I mean, we have said it so many times, but it bears repeating. Republicans start at a disadvantage no matter who you are based on the electoral map and where the Population Centers are visavis the electoral votes in each of these states. But his path is harder. There is no question about it, even, than others, because of where these blue states are that he has to turn red. I want to talk about women, i think this is important, because we mentioned Kellyanne Conway who is the woman whisperer brought into his campaign. She does well with women. The cnn poll soes a gender gap, 12 point advantage for Hillary Clinton among women, just 3 advantage for men for trump. How much do these allegations of Sexual Assault hurt trump. Is the way trump treats woman an indicator of character andable to be president . Nearly six in ten americans say yes it is. Put that into context what the allegations are, he harassed women, forced himself upon women, that he did things to women that were unwanted. S that a strong number in the negative for him. He is not going well in the suburbs of philadelphia. You know how important they are for that state. Right . So he is turning off women based upon what these allegations are, and frankly he fuels it when he makes comments at the rallies. Working in local markets you get to see all the markets and how it plays. That is a very important market, as is the midwest, chicago, very important market i worked in as well. Very strong for women and africanamericans as well. I want to talk to you about the president on jimmy kimmel tonight. Listen to this. When you watch the debate and you watch donald trump, do you ever laugh . Do you ever actually laugh . Most of the time. So the president really hasnt said how he feels about donald trump. He is keeping it close to the vest. [ laughter ] that was sarcasm, by the way. I mean, look, he says he laughs because thats a good line for late night comedy but he is not laughing when he is going out on the campaign trail because he knows its of the not just, you know, about the person who he thinks should be the next president. Its about his own legacy. And but he has a real disdain i think for trump. We have heard him say its not just about choosing between two philosophies, its from his perspective choosing somebody who can lead and somebody who would be a disaster as a leader for the country. And you cannot separate the personal. That donald trump made his name in politics questioning whether or not barack obama was born in this country. You know, sort of peddling conspiracy who are and the president hasnt forgotten that. There were still some of his supporters who dont believe he was born in america. I think its 2 in 10 appearance. Here we are, 15 days to go. Only. When we come back, win or lose, will donald trump change the face of his party for years to come . Between life and death. For partners in health, time is life. We have 18,000 people around the world. The microsoft cloud helps our entire staff stay connected and Work Together in real time to help those that need it. The ability to collaborate changes how we work. What we do together changes how we live. And now. Im in bristol, inia. Tennessee. On this side of the road is virginia. And on this side its tennessee. No matter which state in the country you live in, you could save hundreds on Car Insurance by switching to geico. Look, im in virginia. Im in tennessee. Virginia. Tennessee. And now im in virginessee. See how much you could save on Car Insurance. Or am i in tennaginia . Hmmm. Hillary clinton is pivoting from running against donald trump to running for a democratic senate. Donald trump says not so fast, im winning. Here to discuss is a historian, author of destiny and power. John myrtle beachham and Mark Mckinnon the co creator of the circus. And a former Campaign Adviser to john mccain and george w. Bush. A little joke in the break, i feel like this is evening don having both of you on. For those of you some of you may get that. Donald trump sounds optimistic about the race. Here he is in florida today. I actually think were winning, were up in ohio. Were up in iowa, were doing great in north carolina. I think were doing great in florida. I think were really i think were going to win florida big. I think were going to win florida big. So mark, does he know something we dont know. No. What he probably knows is hes losing, but he needs to sounds confident. The problem is he obsesses about the polls. In the primaries all he did was talk about the polls and he hasnt quit doing that. He must be and should be giving his voters the impression that hes going to win. How do you say were doing well in this and this and this, and then say, the polls are all phony. And theyre rigged. Just stop talking about the polls. Dont talk about them. Talk about your message, what people are responding to. Thats his winning message, dont talk about the polls. You want to say anything about that, john . I dont know why we would suddenly expect this to become a conventional october since its been a wildly unconventional 18 months. Marks right, i mean, ultimately he would be making his closing argument, hed be dealing with the message. Hed be driving it home, this is not in anyway fit any historical pattern, or conventional pattern, mark has worked in politics, ive read a lot about it, and this is just something thats suis jeneris. In the meantime, we saw Hillary Clinton on the campaign trail, moving her focus to down ballot races, does that mean she thinks her campaign is she has this election in the bag . I dont know if she has it in the bag, but shes thinking about governing, shes clearly mr. Trump may not believe the polls, i suspect secretary clinton does. Reminder of a ole joke, i think its attributed to bob dole doesnt believe polls unless hes ahead, which is sort of human nature, i guess. I think shes trying to get as much of a wave as she can. Because she knows because shes been to this movie before. That its really hard once you get there, to get things done. Weve been talking a lot. Youve been on the show. I want to put up this poll and discuss it. It is a new cnn orc poll out today. Hillary clinton leading, but its not a blowout. Heres something that surprised me, more and more democratic voters are saying theyre voting for clinton, not against donald trump, 69 , and 39 thvoting to support clinton, compared to 39 who are voting to support donald trump. Does this go against the norm . You want to close that Enthusiasm Gap and that may be in part people are starting to believe shes going to win. I think its helpful she has a strong surrogate team like the obamas out there, and bernie sanders. You know, and getting encouraging exciting that coalition, the millennials, i think thats showing up in those numbers. Even Kelly Ann Conway said she couldnt have better surrogates. Her surrogates are hall of fame mvps. Does it show that her supporters are maybe more enthusiastic about donald trump . Thats not what people have been saying. 59 and 60. Theyre animated by the donald trump presidency. Now they are getting a positive notion that Hillary Clinton might win. Its a great opportunity for her to close on a high note. John, president obamas out on the campaign trail pounding republican candidates. Lets listen to this. If the world that theyve been seeing is that im powerful enough to cause hurricanes on my own. And steal everybodys guns in the middle of the night. And impose martial law, even though i cant talk without a prompter, then is it any wonder that they end up nominating somebody like donald trump. Donald trump didnt start it, he just did what he always did, which is slap his name on it, take credit for it, and promote it. He is really enjoying this. Hes all fired up and ready to go. Did you say this was revenge of the birthers . Yes. This is a he is, i think thinking about the guy who almost ended his presidency, or certainly made his presidency difficult from the beginning, because for half the country, or a good number of republicans and conservatives out there, didnt give him credibility as being an american born citizen or legitimate president. It really handicapped his presidency. This is not only an opportunity for clinton to win, but in many ways to get back at the guy who handicapped the start of his job. Some two term president s have senioritis, this guys never had so much fun. Hes out there beer bonging rhetoric, its phenomenal. Thats an interesting way of putting it. There was this bloomberg poll. Asked republicans who better matches your view of what the Republican Party should stand for. Donald trump or paul ryan. The majority of republicans say trump. What does that mean for the party looking ahead . Its a terrific question. The movement in 25 years from george h. W. Bush to donald trump disprovens darwin. And we have this situation now where you have a Republican Base and to me, the question for the Republican Party is going to be how much of this is the Republican Base and how much of this is a trump base. And, you know, history is about history of politics is about personality driven leadership. So, you know, as you both know. Theres a great autopsy written about what the Republican Party has to do to win. But its four years old, and its sitting on a shelf. If theres not someone and it may be paul ryan. I suspect its going to be someone whos name we havent said recently. Somebodys got to come to lead them out of the wilderness, and its got to be a person, it cant just be an idea. Interesting. I dont know if you guys saw the first installment of trump tv tonight. Thats what its being called, at least. Well discuss that right after the break. As long as i can. New patented ensure enlive has hmb plus 20 grams of protein to help rebuild muscle. For the strength and energy to do what you love. New ensure enlive. Always be you. Sweet sun no artificial flavors. Philadelphia® strawberry. Rich. , creamy. And delicious. Nothing else tastes like philadelphia® Donald Trumps campaign went on facebook tonight to launch a nightly newscast for trumpsters by trumpsters. They were willing to by pass the left wing media. Back with me now john heechham and Mark Mckinnon. Interesting because the left wing media, according to them, played a big rogue in giving him a voice. Listen what what he said earlier today. The media isnt just against me, theyre against all of you. Thats really what theyre against. Theyre against what we represent. Like Hillary Clinton, they look down on the hardworking people of the country. Thats whats happened. Jon meacham, that goes right to the heart of trumps appeal. Is this attitude going to outlast the election. This attitude is, absolutely. Its outlasted george wallace, who was really one of the first to use it effectively. This is part of classic modern populism, where you argue that every institution in American Life has power over the common person, and the common person is subject to forces beyond their control. Enter a champion whos going to give them a key to unlock that conspiracy and return power to them. And the idea of a left wing media has been a trope on the right for well over 50 years. Used to just be cbs. Now its everybody. And i think that the one of the Great Questions from november 9th forward, i think less so whether trump is going to sue in various states about the results. Its going to be what is the form his permanent opposition takes. Is this media, is it just going to be him and his twitter account calling into shows . What is the scale hes going to take this to, i dont think hes going away. Mark, i want you to talk about that. This is the Trump Campaign taking to f