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A recap of the day's news. in november. this district will be fought again in november. all the money that was just spent in the special election, welcome to running again in november. now, the republicans will argue your best shot was in this lower turnout special election. but this race will stay on the map, especially given this, again, the last republican who won here it was a blowout. a democrat has not represented this district since ronald reagan was president of the united states. the fact that danny o'connor is within 1,766 votes is a moral victory for the democrats. it does not get you an office in washington. you have to win the election. other democrats around the country will think of it as a moral victory saying this proves to them the landscape is favorable for democrats if the republicans are having a hard time in solid red republican territory, or a republican district that the incumbent just squeaked to victory, you feel pretty good tonight and you think this is proof, this is proof republicans are in trouble. if you're danny o'connor, you're a little disappointed, you're looking for a few more votes here. you're going to have your people looking at this tomorrow. before we can sign, seal and deliver this one, they've got to go through the rest. >> john king, thank you very much. back to my political dream team. gloria, you were wondering if someone would take credit for this. the president just tweeting now, when i decided to go to ohio for troy balderson, he was down in early voting, 64-36, that was not good. after my speech on saturday night there was a big turnout for the better. now troy wins a great victory during a very tough time of the year for voting. he will win big in november. the president calling it. we're not calling it now. it's too close to call. there are a lot of things that go into it. looks likely. >> of course, donald trump is taking credit. but i want to say who else should take credit for this victory, if it is a victory, and that's john kasich. because john kasich's the guy, if balderson wins, who brought out those suburban women who don't like donald trump in delaware county, and those moderate republicans. now, you're giving me the evil eye. i'm not saying i'm not giving trump any credit, but let me say, even though kasich was late to the game, he did endorse the republican. he is popular in the state. >> sure. >> more popular with democrats and independents than republicans. but i do think that kasich could have also pushed this for a republican win. >> sure. there's a lot of things that go into an election victory. but donald trump coming into the district not only juiced turnout, guess where he came, delaware county. that's where the rally was. so the idea that he didn't have an impact in delaware county -- >> i'm not saying he didn't. >> there's been some talk about that. look, there's two things that are really important to talk about. one is, the president came in in the special when we lost in pennsylvania and we were down and we only lost by 1,000 votes. should have had him there that will play out in suburban district after suburban district to our advantage. >> that was a fumble because he was on the right side politically on this issue where connor lam and many other candidates are. they are saying explicitly they will not vote for nancy pelosi as speaker or leader or whoever it will be. he fumbled that in a big way. >> it's also not true. they will vote for pelosi. she will be nominated, and if they don't -- if they won the house. hang on a second. if they won the house, right, and pelosi's on the floor, it isn't in the caucus, it's a floor vote, they don't vote for pelosi, kevin mccarthy will be the speaker. >> okay. we don't want to get into this. >> it's not going to happen. >> she cares enough about the party and about keeping democrats in control, if that's the way that the numbers play out in november, that she'll make sure that somebody else is the leader. regardless of that -- she'll process. chairman, thank you. there's many others. i could just keep going on and on. but tonight i'm going to promise to you that i'm going to work relentlessly, relentlessly for this 12th congressional district. america is on the right path, and we're going to keep it going that way. it's time to get to work. over the next three months, i'm going to do everything i can to keep america great again. so that when we welcome -- when we come back here in november, get ready, we've got to come back here in november, i have earned your vote for a second time. danny o'connor ran a hard race, and i look forward to campaigning against him again this fall. thank you all so much for all your support. god bless you, and god bless america. >> that is the republican candidate for the congressional race in ohio, ohio's 12th congressional district there. danny balderson -- i'm sorry, troy balderson. essentially declaring a victory. we have not called it yet. all the votes are not in. but if things continue on in the way that they are going, it is likely balderson will be declared soon the official winner. i want to call back in my political dream team. gloria, you mentioned john kasich. >> he didn't. >> he mentioned trump and pence, the person who had the seat before, but he did not mention john kasich. >> and many others. >> and many others. and the rest, like gilligan's island. >> kasich was late to the game, grudging in his endorsement, and that was obviously, and he did it, and i still believe that kasich helped him. >> and also because of the comments kasich made on the sunday shows, questioning whether balderson requested trump to come there. balderson came out and said i was happy to have the president come here. >> doesn't like kasich either. >> i've got one question for ryan. the president loves to talk about how he backs winners. i want you to check this out when trump has made endorsements in republican primaries, he's 18-1. but when you look at the general and special elections, he's 1-3. what does that say about his candidate's chances in november? >> look, this is another indication this is donald trump's party. the candidate here didn't even thank the governor of his state. >> who held that seat. >> who also held that seat when he was a member of the house, kasich's seat, for years. >> it was his seat. there's no doubt about it in these primaries, there are a other races we're watching to see if trump's candidate won, but in michigan, trump-backed candidate has won, john james. so in primaries and republican primaries they are all about who is the trumpiest candidate, no doubt about that. on the other hand, this special election would not have been close if not for the backlash against donald trump and his policies. so balderson was fighting for his life here because of trump. >> that's a really important point. trump's margin has gone down in this district. you know, he won this district by 11 points. now we're at 0.09 here. so the trend is moving the wrong direction. it bodes well for november. when we come back, many more results on another race where the president made a controversial endorsement. how that candidate is faring tonight. like new crabfest combo. your one chance to have new jumbo snow crab with tender dungeness crab. or try crab lover's dream. but hurry in. 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(oh!) going out for a bite. going anytime. rewarded! learn more at theexplorercard.com here's the breaking news, special election in ohio's 12 lt congressional district which should be safely republican, too close to call at the moment. i want to bring in james fallace, a national correspondent. good evening, thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> by historical measures, james, this should not have been a race. >> sure. >> what's happening? >> as you've been discussing for the last hour, it's become an election, a special election about donald trump. and i think the contrast with two years ago, there's been a very effective movement saying how bad hillary clinton was. there wasn't a focus of anger in the same way. >> too close to call tonight, what does that say for the midterms? >> i will, defer to the political experts you've had here for the last while. if i were a republican manager, i wouldn't be feeling good about this. >> you traveled to these towns and you mentioned, you said there was sort of a big anti-hillary clinton. most of the cities you visited were medium size, allentown, pennsylvania, greenville, south carolina, dealing with the local impact of issues because of these tariffs and the trade war. are their concerns being heard? >> one of the things that was most striking to deb and me as we were traveling around, the disconnection between the realities of local life, assimilating immigrants or a long, slow recovery of the economy, and the fury released when you talked about national politics. we'll see how that -- you had the rhetoric from the republican convention of american carnage. people separated that bitterness from the generally improving realities on local life. it was focused on hillary clinton who is not there as a target this time. >> you said bitterness. is this sort of bittersweet because the margins are much, much closer this time for republicans, which this district has been republican for a while, but it is a win, bittersweet? >> it is a win. certainly a win is a win, a loss is a loss. one more seat where the democrats won't have an incumbent running, and republicans will. i can't imagine any republican making a case this is a good night for them except, perhaps, the republican at the top of the ticket who just did. >> do you think that -- see, he plays really, really hard to the base. do you think that helps or hurts him? does this show that that may come back to bite him? >> historically presidents have found there's certainly -- there's a base that elects them, but they all have to expand beyond that. herbert hoover when he was running for reelection in 1932 in the depths of the depression against franklin roosevelt still got 40% of the vote. there is a base. but to be reelected, you usually have to expand beyond that. let's see if that logic prevails this time. >> the people who are motivated are the base. >> yes, but there was a motivation that really struck me, is two years ago there was a motivation, a really negative feeling about hillary clinton personally. you mentioned earlier about this show, when nancy pelosi was rolled into the election, it became about her. there was revving up of bitterness. the question will be, without something like hillary clinton to run against donald trump, whether there will be that same fury three months from now. >> he needs a foe, whether it's the media, hillary clinton, barack obama, maxine waters, nancy pelosi, and that plays well with his base. >> it's worth emphasizing how historically abnormal this is that american presidents have all been fighting presidents, from teddy roosevelt and onward, but they've been fighting to expand their base. that's one thing we haven't seen so far from this one. >> "our towns" is your book, you provide a road map on how the heartland needs to change. what should change? >> at just the time there's such bitterness and dysfunction at the national level cls there is across the country a reinvention going on that the sense that their communities are doing well, even though the nation is doing poorly. >> the heartland, we're going to go to kansas right after this with my political dream team. we'll be right back. we're the most isolated population on the planet. ♪ hawaii is the first state in the u.s. to have 100% renewable energy goal. we're a very small electric utility. but, if we don't make this move we're going to have changes in our environment, and have a negative impact to hawaii's economy. ♪ verizon provided us a solution using smart sensors on their network that lets us collect near real time data on our power grid. (colton) this technology is helping us integrate rooftop solar, which is a very important element of getting us to our renewable energy goals. ♪ (shelee) if we can create our own energy, we can take care of this beautiful place that i grew up in. ♪ ♪ keep it comin' love. if you keep on eating, we'll keep it comin'. all you can eat riblets and tenders at applebee's. now that's eatin' good in the neighborhood. how can i download an e-file? virtual tours? zip-file? really big files? in seconds, not minutes... just like that. like everything... the answer is simple. i'll do what i've always done... dream more, dream faster, and above all... now, i'll dream gig. now more businesses, in more places, can afford to dream gig. comcast, building america's largest gig-speed network. we're back now with our special election coverage, with my political dream team, talking about this big race tonight. so, gloria, let's talk about -- let's go to kansas now. because -- >> auntie em. >> click your heels three times. jeff colyer, who the president is not supporting, 40.6%. kris kobach is the president's guy, 40.5% there. he put his endorsement behind kris kobach. was that risky? >> well, i mean, he took on the incumbent governor, which is rare for a united states president to say, you know what, i'm going to go against the incumbent governor. trump likes people who are loyal to him. kris kobach was loyal to him. he served on the president's voter integrity commission, remember that, where the president said there were 3 million votes that were cast, but not counted. was that the way -- >> fraudulent votes. >> fraudulent votes. and that never went anywhere, of course. but the president is very loyal to kobach. and trump won the state by about 20 points in 2016. so it was risky for the president because you're going -- you're going against one of your own guys. >> but he also went against the establishment. the establishment did not want trump to go against kobach. they wanted colyer. kobach is very controversial. the illegal immigration issue is kobach's bread and butter, what he's known for. there was an expose recently written about him, how he's made a music man type career of going around to small towns and milking them for legal fees to defend these illegal immigration ordinances or regulations or laws, his record isn't great. he's lost a lot of them, and some of these small towns have been left in debt to pay his legal fees. it's something that endears him to donald trump. trump says, i don't care what everybody says. i'm endorsing my guy. >> trump is not a republican party guy. he's a trump guy. >> he's a trump guy. >> well -- >> for someone who believes in parties, donald trump has been a dream for the republican national committee. he's raised money. the worst thing we could have is someone who doesn't care about the primaries, i'm working on 2020, see you guys later. he gets involved, he reads data, he raises money. >> he's not an establishment guy. >> he's been a tremendous party builder. >> i'm not endorsing your incumbent governor when you are president of the eyes. >> kris kobach was an office holder who was an early endorser. it was a late endorsement. he also, as you mentioned earlier, he endorsed john james in michigan, very exciting candidate for republicans, an african-american military helicopter pilot. he's done pretty well in these endorsements. >> aren't you proving a point when she says he's not a party guy when he's not supporting the traditional candidate? >> i guess -- >> he has people who endorse him. >> he did not say i'm president, but i don't really care about the republican party. he is a party guy. he has built the party. well, he's built the party. in the special election in ohio the rnc did over a million door knocks in the close election. those funds to pay for those ground walkers are coming in from the president. >> if kobach wins. >> good for the primary, not -- >> kansas is so red it's -- >> kansas is red. >> he's very controversial. >> kansas is red. he's controversial. >> alabama was red too. >> and there have been democratic -- democrats elected statewide in kansas. and the party as a whole is not doing well because sam brownback, who only left because he was appointed by the president, was in horrible shape. >> 19% popularity. >> budget cuts. so people are not feeling good broadly about the republican party because of sam brownback and that situation there. if that is the case, and if we do have, remember, the democratic enthusiasm that's going on across the country, even in red states like kansas, that could make a difference. and it could hurt someone like chris kobach, and help a democrat become governor. when you look at the democratic governor, to build back the party that lost a thousand seats, and nationwide during the eight years of obama, the governor's mansions are where you've got to do it too. >> stand, by everyone, back to coverage in special election in ohio. too close to call. bringing in senior writer and analyst, here's harry enton. harry, thanks for joining us. balderson was up one point before trump came to ohio. what effect did the president really have? he's tweeting tonight claiming victory. what effect did he have in is. >> if he was up by one point before trump came in, and he wins by one point, the logical conclusion is that donald trump had no effect on his visit. doesn't mean he didn't have an effect on the campaign. his individual visit doesn't seem like it moved the numbers at all. >> what can you say about turnout, and how important that is, democrats have shown up in droves in other special elections. >> if you look at the turnout throughout ohio 12. you see franklin county which is where danny o'connor did best, made up a larger share of the vote than 2016. unfortunately for him there wasn't enough persuasion, another republicans came out and voted in other parts of the district. but overall, the numbers do seem to indicate there was a lot of democratic enthusiasm. >> about -- harry, about 70 districts in ohio that are currently held by republicans, are more democrat leaning now, what does that mean for november? >> keep in mind this is a very republican district. there are about 70 districts nationwide that are currently held by republicans, but democrats have done better in recent presidential elections. so that, to me, indicates that if you're jumping ahead to the full, the result tonight is actually good news for democrats. one other thing i'll point out, is we keep talking about the presidential vote, but if we look at all the elections that have taken place in ohio, it's more republican leaning than the presidential result indicates. the fact this race ended up so close, to me, again, is another sign that when we jump to november and there's a more even playing field, democrats will do quite well. >> i want to put up one of your tweets. urban divide tonight, this district is about ten points more rural than the nationwide media, and this is, by census definition, another example about how november turf will be friendly to democrats. what are you seeing, and why is this so important? why are you saying that? >> i mean, look, one of the great divides in our politics that continues to be greater and greater and greater is that democrats are doing better in urban areas, and republicans are doing better -- democrats are doing better in you are ban ban areas, and republicans are doing better in rural areas. we saw that again tonight. o'connor carries -- balderson carries the rest of the district which is much more rural. if you jump ahead to november, and you're going to have districts that are more urban than this one, it's a median district, and there's a lot more room for democrats to grow their support. ohio 12 was not the best place for democrats to win. the fact they came so close was a bad sign for republicans. >> let me ask you this, though, harry, maybe this is the practice rounds, republicans will get their acts together and say we need to do better, have better turnout, can't rest on our laurels, that is a genuine possibility, don't you think? >> well, of course. look, we're still months away from november. but if you look at the polling data, it is all supportive of what we've seen in the special elections so far, that is democrats turning out in much higher numbers than they did in 2014. the last midterm elections, republican turnout depressed or at the same levels. and more than that, it fits with what we've seen historically. when there's a republican president -- democratic president. so everything to me fits a very nice little tidy box. of course, elections are still strange things, strange things can happen. there's an event that occurs. but every single thing we've seen so far indicates this is a good enough november democrats will take control. that's why we let the games go. >> nothing drives people to the poll like fear. we'll see. fear on the democrat side or republican side. when we come back, much more on tonight's elections, the ohio race, too close to call, plus paul manafort's business partner, taking the witness stands for a second day giving details of alleged illegal activities. he says they committed together. but is he coming across as a credible witness? 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>> all i have is secondary sources. having not been in the courtroom. but he certainly appears, from all sources i've read, or heard, to be doing very well. he's been open, he's been confessional, admitted his own mistakes. and i think that resonates with the jury. >> yeah. from your vantage point, and you've gone through similar with water gate. >> i have. >> do you think the prosecution is proving its case so far against paul manafort? >> i do. i think they had -- what they did with this witness, with gates is just the reverse of the role i had. i was the leadoff witness and put all the furniture on the stage and all the players in the chairs, sort of testimony. explained the big picture. and then they corroborated me with other witnesses. here you've done the reverse. you've got the accountants have all testified, a lot of paper and documents. and then gates is pulling it all together and flushing a little bit out. >> so this is -- i found this -- what was revealed today to be pretty interesting because gates is also claiming that manafort asked for inauguration tickets, he tried to secure a secretary of army banker that manafort had sought illegal loans. >> we know this witness, mr. gates spent a lot of time on the front side before he agreed to a plea deal with the prosecutor. that came out in the testimony, some 20 meetings. so he's obviously got a lot of knowledge that goes way beyond this trial. and i think that those just came in by accident. in the cross-examination today. >> yeah. the president's legal team, john, has been really clamoring for mueller to put up or shut up. do you think they should be careful what they wish for? >> well, i don't think they have the strong negotiating position they think they have. if mr. mueller really wants this, the president as a witness, he'll send a subpoena. i think all we know about the mueller position is coming from the president's lawyers. i'm not sure they're the best source to really understand these negotiations. but anyway, that's all we've got at this point because mueller is not coming out and explaining his position. >> so, listen, i want to get to some reporting from cnn and also from the wall street journal. the wall street journal is reporting that federal prosecutors investigating whether michael cohen committed possible tax fraud with his taxing medallion business, and sources are telling cnn prosecutors have subpoenaed his former accountant and are looking at questionable bank loans. does this put more pressure on cohen to cooperate? >> i think it does. he has announced he's going to tell the truth. he's going to come forward. i don't think he's going to waive the fifth until he gets a deal, or he may not get a deal, and he'll never testify. but i must say the wall street journal has always been well plugged in at the southern district and their reporting is generally very accurate out of that source, or out of that location. this is troubling for cohen. he's got real problems. these are serious crimes, bank fraud typically carries about a 30-year sentence, maximum. and as i say, he's got to make some decisions soon. >> all right. john dean, thank you very much. i appreciate your time. i want to bring it back to the group in this one now. the michael cohen, your reporting and your reporting as well, do we know how all of this will affect the midterms? is it too early to tell? there's a lot of information going back and forth. >> the michael cohen story? or the mueller? >> manafort, michael cohen, the mueller investigation. >> you know, when you talk to republicans out in the field they say russia's not an issue. it just doesn't come up. people care about their pocketbooks. they care about what's going on in the world. they care about trade, tariffs, tax reform, everything else. it doesn't seem to be russia. democrats care about russia. democrats overwhelmingly think it's a large issue. they trust mueller. the president has done a very good job in discrediting mueller, his popularity has plummeted and i think that is a problem for mueller. so whether it affects the midterms depends on when mueller decides to do whatever he's going to do. is the president going to testify? will this happen before the midterm elections? or will it carry over until after? >> we follow every detail. some nights, i sit here and say wait a minute -- >> do we? tell us about it. >> that was sarcasm. i sit here and say, wait a minute, which -- manafort, flynn. >> it's hard for us. >> is it too much information for people? if you asked john dean, people didn't initially care about watergate until they had to. >> so true. the answer is yes, and republicans are relying on the -- or the president, i should say, is relying on kind of the cloud of confusion that there's just so much discussion, so much chatter. and for a while the president's political team, they were looking at numbers that showed that the more there was a discussion about russia, the better it is for republicans out there because they -- for some of those on the fence, even those who are maybe not tlild with t -- thrilled with the president's tweets and some of the chaos, they're like enough already, wait until this ends, enough already. we don't want to hear the pounding away at the president on this issue so much. look, it's up in the air. but at this point it seems like it's a wash. >> there are a lot of republicans who believe that they can use impeachment for the president. >> yes, it will drive out turnout. >> drive out their turnout. >> danny o'connor did not talk about russia. >> democrats are not talking about this on the campaign trail. danny o'connor did not talk about russia. he talked about social security and health care. >> good strategy. >> it's the only strategy. i think what democrats do believe is that the president is generally lying. and so that bigger picture, i think, is holding democrats on this issue, and that's why they believe in mueller. when we come back, our breaking news, the ohio special election too close to call, bus mo -- plus more results from other races coming in. ♪ bright copper kettles and warm woolen mittens ♪ ♪ brown paper packages tied up with strings ♪ ♪ these are a few of my favorite things ♪ ♪ ♪ (vo) go national. go like a pro. see what i did there? 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'cause crabfest will be gone in a snap. . this is our break news right now, cnn projects that missouri attorney general josh holly, a republican, he will face democratic senator mccaskical come november. and bill shoot will be the republican and gretchen whitmer will be the democratic candidate. neck and neck now with the incumbent governor jeff collier. my political team is back with me. you're anxious. >> yes, i want to say something that's interesting that "the washington post" pointed out today. it's been the poor fate of lieutenant governors for republicans. it's been a terrible election cycle for them and this is also what we're seeing play out in kansas with it being so close. but also in michigan, in ohio, in oklahoma, in georgia. all of those places the incumbent lieutenant governors las miserably because of something similar to what dana brought up earlier with the effect of the drag of the incumbent not being popular. but who's been the beneficiary, the attorneys generals of these states because they are involved in high profile cases whether it was prosecuting the obamacare issues against that during the health care debate or the immigrati immigration issues, it's giving the attorney general in these states a higher profile and a less establishment portfolio because it looks like they're fighting for something and you're seeing this play out now in all these governors races. >> can we quickly go back to what you were talking about there in missouri? but the senate is still razor thin, and so now we have a republican candidate to run against incumbent democratic mayor senator mccasket. and republican feel good about this candidate. clar mccaskill is a tough competitor, and this could be a really and will be a fascinating race to watch and will be one of those that will determine whether republicans keep control of the senate. >> i agree with dana, look, we're focusing on these house races now because it's much more like the houses are going to flip than the senate. but if impeachment does become an issue, then the democrats would need the house and two thirds of the senate, right? two thirds. and so a race like clar mccaskill would be hugely, hugely important. but let me say one thing about tonight, if the president gets a balderson win, if chris kobach wins we're going to get more tweets -- >> any endorsed colleague. >> exactly. >> on the flip side of that trump won this ohio district by nine points, if balderson wins it'll probably be about a point. >> i agree but a win is a win. >> and i wasn't being rude. the reason i need to get gloria is because dan and gloria thank you. stay with me. at the top of our our breaking news coverening of special election ohio. the incumbent candidate is leading. we'll be right back. a few days before my trip and still save up to 40%. just tap and go... for the best savings on flights, go to priceline. ♪ (shelee) if we can create our own energy, we can take care of this beautiful place that i grew up in. ♪ with i get rewarded explowherever i go. going out for a bite. rewarded! going new places. rewarded! learn more at theexplorercard.com ♪ it's so hard to believe ♪ but it's all coming back me. ♪ baby, baby, baby. all you can eat is back, baby. applebee's.