This is cnn tonight, im don lemon, in manchester, New Hampshire, live here, the first votes in the first of the nation primary will be cast in less than one hour at midnight eastern time, all eyes are on New Hampshire tonight. To see which democrat comes out on top in the wake of the chaos in the Iowa Caucuses last week. So far Bernie Sanders from neighboring vermont is leading in the polls. Joe biden admitting to me earlier tonight that the New Hampshire race is an uphill battle for him. Hes already looking forward to nevada and then south carolina. Those primaries there later this month where he is counting on a lot of africanamerican support, lots to discuss right now. Joining me is mark mckennon who was an adviser to george w. Bush and john mccain. And a washington correspondent for new York Magazine. So great to have both of you here. Mark, start with you, less than an hour away from the first votes in New Hampshire. Currently 11 democratic president ial candidates in this. Who has the most at stake in the next 24 hours . Joe biden. Vice president who was supposed to be the nominal front runner, the guy that could beat trump. Expected to come out of iowa certainly in the front tier, had a very poor showing. This is the point in the campaign, this is when good get better and bad gets worse. Biden is really in a bad sort of death spiral right now. Hes already lowering expectations here. Youre not so optimistic about his chances . Not optimistic about him. The whole rationale for his campaign has collapsed. Electability. If you cant win in iowa and you cant win in New Hampshire how are you going to beat the president of the United States . Voters in south carolina, black, brown, no matter what color they are get that. Well talk more about that. Olivia, in New Hampshire, the New Hampshire primary, undeclared voters can vote in republican or democratic primaries with trump essentially running uncontested. Theres likely going to be a lot of action with the democrats. Who do you think this benefits the most . Well, i think that donald trump, the campaign, has had a kind of show of force here, they had a rally tonight in manchester. They did the same thing in iowa where they had several events leading up to the caucus and on the day of the cause skpus there was really no ron for them to be there, no opponents really. The only remaining republican challenger is bill weld whos not polling competitively with donald trump. And so i think the campaign is attempting to, you know, kind of juxtapose the chaos of the democratic field and what happened in iowa with this organized, successful showing on their part. Is it about suppression, you think, suppressing the democratic vote . I dont think its about suppressing showing theyre enthused and organized and the democrats are not. I think its the same strategy they had in iowa, showing what they can do. Brad parscale, the Campaign Manager told new York Magazine before the iowa caucus that this was a preview of what they were bringing to the general election. But i wanted to say on your point ant joe biden, their argument the entire time that be that they are, you know, steady, they are controlled, theyre the adults in the room. And they thats why hes the most electable candidate. That really does fall apart when your campaign is not performing. Theres another big problem for joe biden and his name is Mike Bloomberg. Biden pulled his resources out of nevada and south carolina, i would have argued get out of of here and get to south carolina. The super tuesday states, he doesnt have any money, theres a guy named Mike Bloomberg buying hundreds of millions of dollars. Hes saying hes raising upwards of 300,000 a day. Joe biden . Well, hes not putting any of that in super tuesday states and Mike Bloomberg. Since the beginning of the campaign hes never been as big a fundraiser as Bernie Sanders or other competitors. Thats not much money. Its also the again, thats also the structure of his support, right, big money donors versus smaller money donors who can exactly and big money donors, theyre capped out so they cant give more if they wanted to and hes not getting new voters. Right. And thats where bernie has such a long runway. Most of his donors can still give more. Lets talk about independent voters, made up 40 of the democratic primary voters in 2016. That contributed to the surge for sanders, this huge victory, right there. I mean, do you think hes going to get much independent support here again . Well, you know part of this is expectations game, he won last time by 22 points. People expect him to win big. The story in a lot of these primary states is not necessarily who wins but who beats or doesnt beat expectations. Sanders may win but not that big of a story. The story could be Amy Klobuchar coming from third. Shes the little engine that could. Ive been saying theres a dark horse in this campaign, ive been saying its Amy Klobuchar. Its also benefiting that she is a midwestern. Did really well in the debate the oh night. Picked up a bunch of endorsements and shes a tlask New Hampshire candidate. New hampshire likes to upset the table. Didnt we say New Hampshire likes to be contrarian to iowa. Exactly. Iowa picks corn, New Hampshire picks winners. Let me grab my glasses. To me, i remember covering this, as a reporter not so young then, in 2000 mayor put buttigieg was a high schooler. I cant believe that. In high school, wrote a 1,000 word tribute tober sn bernie sa. He admired his embrace of socialism and now hes in a fierce battle with a politician he for attacking his views. Could anyone have predicted this rivalry . I think at the beginning of the race the thing buttigieg benefitted from is that the expectations early on were not high, unknown entity, he spent the last year upping his name id, getting a lot of media coverage. And hes sort of hes suffered, i think, at the right time. He had a lot of difficult stories months ago and hes kind of been able to bounce back from that and i think thats not really surprising that now its him versus people like joe biden and Bernie Sanders. I think hes kind of irritating a lot of other campaigns when you talk to them privately. Yeah. They are annoyed by his rise and his persistence and how well hes doing. I remember covering y 2 k, that struck me, he was in high school, oh, my gosh. I was older than 30. Theres a new national kwi quinnipiac poll that shows democrats leading independents, biden at 17, bloomberg at 15, klobuchar 4 , its just one poll but, i mean, is sanders the new front runner . I dont know if you can go that far given the results in iowa, or what we know about the results in iowa. But i think that certainly when you talk to other campaigns, theyre very worried about sanders, more worried right now in some ways about bloomberg, we dont yet know what the effect of his spending will be and how the National Polling will translate when it comes time to vote in these states. Theyre worried about buttigieg as well but theyre really focusing their attention on sanders and bloomberg. In some way that might allow buttigieg to fly under the radar and emerge from these early contests as kind of unscathed by the other campaigns. Lets talk about that. Im going to let you respond. Bloomberg is third in this poll. Its incredible you have this independent, right, hes not even a democrat. Independent senator who calls him a democratic socialist, a former republican billionaire mayor, all vying for the democratic nomination. Youve got sanders, bloomberg and trump, all of whom have no party identification. Trump was a democrat, bloomberg was a republican. To your point about sanders, he will be the front runner because hes running as the progressive. If he comes out strong and warren doesnt, warrens really got nowhere to go after here, her support, a lot of it will go to sanders. On the other side of the aisle youve got bloomberg and buttigieg and maybe klobuchar splitting up the vote, and sanders has it all to himself. What about warren, shes tied right now with 11 on average in the polling. I dont think that you can really chalk up sanders numbers here to being because hes from a neighboring state as joe biden would like people to believe. Thank you, both. Weve got to get out there. The first votes are about to come in. I love this. Brian todd joins us now. Thanks, guys, brian todd in diksville notch, New Hampshire, one of three small towns where the very first votes will be cast at the stroke of midnight. First votes are coming in, what are we going to see at midnight . Don, in less than an hour youre going to see a wonderful down home New Hampshire voting tradition unfold as it has every president ial cycle for the past 60 years. This is the 60th anniversary of the Dixville Notch vote and were going to show you the room where it will unfold here. The Balsams Resort has been here since 1865, shut down in 2011 but they still hold the vote here. The resort is in the process of being renovated now so theyre having it in an alternative house where theyve always had the vote. You see the beautiful americana decor here, thats a tradition as well. It all started with this gentleman, neal tillison. He bought the resort in the 1950s. He was told hes have to drive an hour to vote, didnt want to do that so he worked with the state to set up rules here if you have at least five people to vote, you can hold a vote in your kind of home precinct and he set it up so that the Dixville Notch vote can take place here at the stroke of midnight. And his son, the town moderator right now, is going to be running this vote in less than an hour. Youre going to have a total of five voters here, theyll be seated here and standing over here. Theyll kind of gavel it in. Tom tillison will gavel it in at the stroke of midnight. Well bring it all to you live. Whats interesting now is that this here, they were in a little bit of danger of not being able to hold the caucus here, saying you have to have at least five they had four people because one gentleman whos been living here, kind of on and off, he moved away and then came back, his name is lest of then, he decided to come back late in the year in 2019 and establish his residence here and hes also the new owner of the Balsams Resort, hes renovating hopes to get it back up and running in about two years time but got here in the nick of time to register his residency here and he became the fifth voter and well see and hear from him in less than an hour. He saved christmas. Well, not christmas. He saved the election. Thank you, brian. Well be looking forward to it. Well get back to you in Dixville Notch where the first votes will be cast. President trump spreading another debunked Conspiracy Theory at his rally in New Hampshire tonight, this one really is a whopper. Luckily cnn fact checker daniel dale is here to separate fact from fiction. Thats next. Nationwide 5g network. And with it, you can shape the future. Weve invested 30 billion dollars and built our new 5g network for businesses like yours. While some 5g signals only go a few blocks, tmobile 5g goes for miles. No other 5g signal goes farther or is more reliable in business. Tomorrow is in your hands. Partner with tmobile for business today. Its got all my favorite shows tomoturn oright there. Boom, i wish my Trading Platform worked like that. Well have you tried thinkorswim . This is totally customizable, so you focus only on what you want. Okay, its got screeners and watchlists. And you can even see how your predictions might affect the value of the stocks youre interested in. Now this is what im talking about. Yeah, itll free up more time for your. Uh, true crime shows . British baking competitions. Hm. Didnt peg you for a crumpet guy. Focus on what matters to you with thinkorswim. Wh fake gagging noises its the easiest because its the cheesiest. Kraft. For the win win. Do you recall, not long ago we would walk on the sidewalk all around the wind blows we would only hold on to let go blow a kiss into the sun we need someone to lean on blow a kiss into the sun all we needed somebody to lean on the new xc90 plugin hybrid electric. Xc90. Recharged. My bladder leak underwear. Orried someone might see so, i switched. To always discreet boutique. Its shapehugging threads smooth out the back. So it fits better than depend. And no one notices. Always discreet. I feelbusiness cards. New logo. Outdoor sign. You always get me. Now, get free 1 hour instore pick up. At Office Depot Officemax and officedepot. Com. Same time next week. Yes President Trump holding a rally tonight in New Hampshire ahead of tomorrows democratic primary and a whole lot of what he said doesnt really pass the smell test. Lets get a fact check now on what he had to say with cnns daniel dale. Daniel, hello, thanks for joining us. President trump retells the story he has repeated so many times about hundreds and hundreds of buses being shipped to New Hampshire in 2016, insinuating voter irregularities. Watch. Remember last time we won the primary tremendously, we should have won the election but they had buses being shipped up from massachusetts, hundreds and hundreds of buses. Whats the reality . The reality, don, is that this is a lie, this is fiction. There is no basis for it and New Hampshire election authorities looked into this in part because of the president s allegations and simply found no evidence whatsoever. They found that in cases where buses were used to transport voters, they were legal voters, proper voters, nothing wrong with them and so this is a Conspiracy Theory the president has cooked up, contradicted even by his own former Campaign Manager corey lewandowski, a New Hampshire man, has said that he himself has seen no evidence for it. The voter fraud commission, disbanded because there was none. The president also spoke about his impeachment votes. Watch this. In the house we won 1960 and then we got three democrats. And in the senate, other than romney, we had we got 520, 520. And something. So he said it was 196 to nothing and 52 to nothing. And somehow i dont remember reporting these supposed, unanimous decisions, why is that . This is almost comical. So what hes doing here obviously is writing out of history all of the votes for the other side against him so in the senate he was acquitted of course, he did win those votes but on the article of impeachment where romney defected and voted against him the vote was 52, yes, but to 48. 5248. What trump is doing here is like the Kansas City Chiefs saying we won the super bowl 310. No, the other side put up points. In the house he lost all those impeachment votes. He was impeached. While he did get 196, 197, 198 votes there were many more in the 200s to impeach him. Hes trying to rewrite history here, don. He seems to think he wasnt impeached but ill go on. He says that he is hearing about a lot of republicans crossing over to vote in the New Hampshire primary. We hear that there could be, because you have crossovers in primaries, dont you, so i hear a lot of republicans tomorrow will vote for the weakest candidate possible of the democrats. Does that make sense . You people wouldnt do that. My only problem is, im trying to figure out who is their weakest candidate . I think theyre all weak. So what kind of impact, daniel, can republicans have in the primary . I mean, whos the whole truth here . If you are a republican, a registered republican in New Hampshire, do not try to vote in the democratic primary because you wont be allowed to. If youre an undeclared voter, not aligned with either party, you can vote in the democratic primary, of course if youre a democrat, you can do so as well. But if youre registered as a republican you cant show up and vote and you cant switch your registration tomorrow either. The president s giving you some bad advice. Fact checker, cnns fact checker, daniel dale. Bill barr big revelation confirming the doj is taking to Rudy Giuliani, to harm how barr is defending the whole thing. hey there im lonnie from lonnies lumber. If you need lumber wood, lonnies is better than good. We got oak, cherry, walnut, and more. And we also have the best selection of plywood clattering in the state. Hey highpitched laughter man dang woodchucks wood clattering stop chuckin that wood with geico, the savings keep on going. Just like this sequel. 15 minutes could save you 15 or more on car insurance. Did you know that every single flush fling odors onto your soft surfaces . Then they get released back into the air so you smell them later. Ew. Right . Thats why febreze created small spaces. Press firmly and watch it get to work. 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