Electoral college map stands right now. Donald trump has 11 right now. Biden has zero. Remember, you need 270, 270 to win this race for the white house. Lets get a key race alert. Well start with kentucky right now. 12 of the estimated vote is in. Trump has the lead of about 9,400 votes over biden. Look at this. 50. 9 . 47. 5 for biden in kentucky. 8 electoral votes once again at stake in kentucky. Lets go to john king over at the magic wall right now. Were looking at the suburbs in kentucky, john. Its pretty significant whats going on potentially. Lets not get too far ahead. Right. We know this is disproportionately early vote but we also learned lessons from states. Youve projected indiana. Thats the first state. 11 electoral votes for donald trump. You have to get to 270. He has the first 11. Now the commonwealth of kentucky expected to be red. Senate majority leader up for reelection there as well. We are looking for clues. Fayet county. This is lexington. Joe biden, disproportionately early vote. Lets see if this holds up to see if it stays this way. 73 right now. If you go back to Hillary Clinton, only 51 . If joe biden can do this stuff right here, well see john, i want to go to florida. Were beginning to get some numbers in florida. Lets take a look in florida. Here we go. This part of the country north of naples, very critical to the president. 5 . Florida say huge state. Well be at this for a long time. Nice to get the first votes out of florida. Where are they coming from . Pasco county along the coast. Thats a quick report. Florida, we expect to be good and also expect it to give us a lot of clues about the electorate and about who might win tonight. 130,000 to 101, this state is essential to the president. Joe biden would like it because he knows it would block. Lets take a look. 59 four years ago. 56 right now if you round up. Thats close. Well watch this. Is it significant . We dont know until we get more vote here. 79 of the vote. One county is not going to do it. If you start to see the president a couple of points below, that will be significant. Look at the vote count. 130,000 to win it. In a state like florida 142,000 net. Were not done yet. Watch this at the end of the night. Is the president performing . Overperforming, underperforming, about breaking even with four years ago and how is joe biden doing compared to Hillary Clinton . Thats one place well watch. Lets come back to 2020 and see what else we have on the map. Lets come down here. Lee county. This is 81 theyre up to there. 57 to 42. If you do the rounding there. Go back in time and look. 59. So a little bit down. Is that significant . We dont know yet. Its very early. These are republican counties. These are very republican counties. The question for the president , the president has to win them. We know that. The question is, is he getting the extra votes there . Is he running up the margin because he needs the math from places like this to offset we expect when we get here. This will be key here. Along the coast, you start the i4 corridor and go all the way across in brevard county. 54. 3. Go back and take a look, 57. 8. Another county where right now the president is underperforming. Its early. Thats what youll watch throughout the night in a state that is always as close as florida. If the president is underperforming where he is where his vote, the question becomes can the democrats overperform Hillary Clinton . Wheres the tradeoff in the map . Lets pop out and see what we have. Go back in time. Im going to highlight this for us. Well go back in time to 2016. And we see, you know, you see the blue here. We dont have these votes yet. This is red as it was four years ago. Lets bring it out to sea. Lake county. 55 to 44. Thats where it is now. 59, 60. So again, three counties weve looked at where the president s numbers right now are down a bit. The percentages are down a bit. Look at the percentage down and then match up the math. 102,000 votes there to take that county four years ago. 87 and change. Almost 88,000 votes now. We dont know if thats significant but thats what you do when youre doing an election csi in a state like florida. We need more votes. More votes and start to see democratic votes down here. The Trump Campaign has been optimistic. It will cut in. Miamidade. You know it well. Look at the totals here. Go back four years okay. Hillary clinton. You look at that in the largest county in the state. Thats what the democrats need. And it wasnt enough. Hillary clinton still narrowly lost the state. Trump campaign has been confident, especially inroads in the Latino Community would do something here. Well see. Biden really has to do well in those three southern florida counties in order to win this election. Were talking about miamidade, Palm Beach County and broward county. Miami, broward, palm beach. Pull them out and look at them. Its said often but ill say it again. The further south you go, the further north you get. Retirees from the north. Senior citizens electorate. This is in the in defeat. Hillary clinton lost florida four years ago. Look how close it was. 112, 113,000 votes if you round up in a giant state. 49 to 48 if you round that up. If you go back. See the blue. Doesnt change that much. Lets go back to when barack obama carried this state. You see the difference in the margins here. You come down here. Obama g clinton gets 64. She did hobn this part of the state. That was one of the lessons in 2016. The Clinton Campaign thought they did a good job in the early vote. The Clinton Campaign thought they did a very good job down here. What surprised them, President Trump over here and the volume. In all of the smaller red, the southwest, more people down here. Fewer people, but they came out to play in 2016. Its the small counties. 83 in a county like that. 2800 votes. You think that doesnt matter. Thats a 2300vote difference there, one county. Start matching that up as you walk across the board and go from county to county. Thats how you get math. Will those people come out this time for the president . That will be the test as we watch this state fill in tonight. There we go. Piniellas county. If thats 75 . If that state is blue, joe biden has a good chance to carry the state of florida. Four years ago it was red. Four years ago it was red. I remember on election day, the Clinton Campaign was so confident about florida. It was the Clinton Campaign thought we got good early vote here and one of the ground organizations went to polling places and saw lines stretching down the street. Saw the maga hats and tweeted me and said we are bleeped. The president didnt win this county by much but its a statement here. This right now in 2016, it was red. At the moment, at the moment its blue. What is this . This is tampa, st. Pete. Its a suburban area. It has retirees. Its growing. Its a place democrats understand. If you want to get that back if you can keep it blue. Its not enough, but well watch it. If that stays blue then joe biden is in play for florida and as you know, wolf, were going to be at this map for a few hours. But if democrats are looking at that county over there, they are getting a bit encouraged right now with 75 of the vote in. Thats one of the great dramas of an Election Night and great frustration. You see Something Like that early on and think if you are a democrat, you think thats it. Well be at this for a while and walk through it. Great to get excited. People at home should get excited about their candidate, their side. Weve got a ways to go. The key here, does that stay . Whats the turnout . Match up the math as we go and the big test for me, the big test for me, can the democrats hold the suburbs here and build, build . Take the 2018 suburbs that made nancy pelosi speaker and do those in these states here. How does the president do here . Does he match his numbers . He might have to exceed his numbers here if joe biden is doing well. All right 1. 5 million votes have been counted in florida. Show our viewers, trump at 53 . Biden at 46. 1 . Hes ahead by 104,000 votes. He is. 1. 5 million counted. We have a ways to go. 4. 6 million to 4. 5 million. Were early in the florida count. Look, florida is always i say fun. I dont have a horse in this race if you are a partisan watching at home you go back and forth on the up and down in all of this one. This is one of the most fascinating states because of diversity. Because of the Senior Citizen vote. Its the most complicated latino vote anywhere because of the diversity within the Latino Community. The democrats sent obama down here twice trying to get africanamericans to turn out. The suburban revolt against the president. Does it hold up in a state like florida, now his adopted home state . Does the trump army come out in 2020 like it did in 2016 in these small koupcounties . The complexity of florida makes it so interesting. Jake was mentioning his conversation with rick scott the other day. Hes won three elections by a point. Hes won three elections by a point in the state of florida. Thats the way florida goes. Twice for governor and once for senate by a point. Well watch this fill in. One of the most fascinating things. Its neighbor, its almost the reverse when you come to georgia. This is the south. The northern florida votes like the south. So this part of georgia votes like the south. Its white, rural, widely republican in recent years. Then up here to savannah, augusta, atlanta, suburbs. Africanamerican votes in the inner cities. The suburbs around them. How far out can the democrats stretch it in the suburbs . That will be the key not only across here but to the north in georgia as well in an election the Biden Campaign and the polls tell us could be a very different election. The only thing that jumps out at you is Pinellas County. I looked at those counties. I dont want anyone to make too much of this too early. One of the things in a close state like this with an incumbent president on the ballot is to match him up. 39,000 votes, 67 if you round up in 2020. You come here. 68 . So roughly close. A little down. I wouldnt jump up and down about that one. Its down a little bit. Well see. 28 . 22,000 votes. 29 if you roll up there. Joe bidens percentage is a little better. Not done with the math yet. We dont know. These are the Little Things very close that you do in a campaign war room. Match up county to county and look through it to see. And especially in places where they places where the polls are still open and they know the votes trying to surge voters in. Lee county here. 81 estimated vote. Some of these can be a little off this year because of the early voting and the mailin voting. 57 to 42 . Again, for me, its the math. 185,000, 186,000 if you round it up. 191 last time. This is what were just going to go through. If turnout is up everywhere in the state, the president probably needs to exceed his numbers from four years ago, especially in the smaller, more rural places to match if the democratic numbers are up as well. Now since weve been waiting here, hillsboro county here. And this is tampa. Hillsboro and pinellas. So you look at this. The fourth largest county in florida. Democrats can run it up here. It gives you a cushion. Before we go to hillsborough and tampa. Look at the state. The gap between trump and biden seems to be narrowing significantly right now. Trump is at 50. 9 . Biden at 48. 2 . Trump is ahead by almost 65,000 votes. 64,157. And welcome to the roller coaster that is florida. Thats why its so fun. I want to take a look. 55 to 44 if you round the president s total up there. And then go back in time here again. 51. So if this holds, and its a big if, Hillary Clinton at 51. Joe biden at 55. If thats what thats exactly what joe biden needs to do. Run a little stronger than Hillary Clinton. Take a look at the state right now. Biden has just taken the lead with 22 mrs of the estimated vote. They do it very quickly in florida. Broward county is now coming look at this in broward county. Lets take a look at broward county. I was trying to get you the full totals here. Welcome to roller coaster florida. 12,000 there. 75 . Only 16 of the vote in. This is the second largest county in the state. A lot of votes out here. Democrats need them. Miamidade, broward, palm beach, one, two, three as we go through here. Weve got a lot going on in florida. 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Take a look at this. Whats going on in florida right now. More than onethird of the vote is now the estimated vote is now in. Biden has a lead of nearly 100,000 right now. 50. 7 to trumps 48. 4 . 35 of the estimated vote is in. 29 electoral votes. Look at georgia. Very early. Only 2 of the estimated vote is in but biden is ahead by almost 32,000 votes. 61. 8 to 37 in georgia. 16 electoral votes at stake. In New Hampshire, less than 1 , very, very early right now. But biden is ahead by 2300 votes. 72. 2 to 27. 8 . Four electoral votes in New Hampshire. In vermont, also very, very early. Biden is ahead only by about 610 votes. Less than 1 of the estimated vote is in. 62. 7 . 13 electoral votes. 69 to 30 for biden. Very early in virginia. Also very early in South Carolina, trump is ahead there by some almost 700 votes. 63. 3 to 36. 7 . And trump is also ahead in kentucky. 15 of the estimated vote in kentucky is now in. Trump is ahead by about 35,000 votes. 54. 1 to 44. 3 from biden. Lets go over to john king over at the magic wall. Lets take a look at the big picture first and then focus in on florida, florida, florida. The big picture is the question of the night. Can joe biden flip states that were donald trump states in 2016 . Can joe biden flip them . Well, that would be a flip. Its early. That would be a flip. Again, its early. The president leading in virginia, but its a very early count, if the president could pull off that, that could be a dramatic story. We expect joe biden to win virginia. Its very early in light of the votes. These would be two big ones. New hampshire and vermont we expect to see. South carolina is closer than we thought. At the moment, very early. Everybody needs to be careful about this. At the moment, this is what joe biden wants to do. He flips these states here, he may have to wait pennsylvania, michigan and wisconsin. If theyre close, we might have to wait, especially on pennsylvania. Could be a day or three. However, if joe biden wins that, hell rest comfortably waiting for that. Lets take a look at florida. This one is always a roller coaster. What you see now doesnt mean the lead wont change. It changed as we were speaking. Right now, joe biden at 50 . Donald trump at 49. When you round up, 62,394. The difference in a giant state where both candidates got more than 4. 5 million votes. Youre winning hillsboro county, st. Pete. Thats where you want to be. This is your how you finish. You finish a race in florida across the i4 corridor. You get started if you are a democrat by winning down here. If youre joe biden, ill say this. Were early in the count. This is somewhat concerning but could be the quirks of 2020. President trump thinks he can do better down here with cubans and other latino votes. Well see if thats the case. The democrats were worried about africanamericans in miamidade. Well see if thats the case. 84 in right now. 54 to 45. If you go back in time, thisin6. This is something to watch. The democrats, this is their basket where they need to run it up. Well see. If you dont run it up here, offset it somewhere else. Thats one of the tradeoffs in this campaign. Trump may perform better among latino men. Well go through the tradeoffs throughout the night. If you come back to 2020, joe biden would like that to be higher. 84 right now. We believe most of this is election day voting. Today voting here. Were waiting for early vote as well. That might help joe biden if democrats disproportionately banked early in miamidade. Broward. This is more what joe biden wants it to look like. 16 right there. 75 , you go back to the comparison. 66 . Overperforming at the moment Hillary Clinton by you pull back out. This will be a roller coaster. By 28,000 votes. This is what were going to do. This is trademark for this president , look at the smaller counties. Not a lot of people live here. Its 184 to 183 there. 584 to 207. You think thats o