Transcripts For CNNW Fareed Zakaria GPS 20141116 : vimarsana

CNNW Fareed Zakaria GPS November 16, 2014

Nothing more. And College Applications are due son. Are colleges as we know them simply too expensive and outdated . Is there a better way in Higher Education . My guests say there is. Finally, europe landed on a comet this week. India has a probe orbiting mars and russia remains the not so trusty taxi to outer space. Whats america up to up there and whose spending on space is the highest . But first here is my take. As moscow continues to send its forces into ukraine, it seems clear that pu tins russia presents america and the west with a frontal challenge. But in the longer run, it is not russias overt military assault, but chinas patient and steady nonmilitary moves that might prove the greater challenge. Russia is a great power in decline. Its economy amounts to just 3. 4 of global gdp. Chinas is nearly 16 and rising. Now almost four times the size of japans and five times that of germanys according to the world bank. President s obama and xi deserve the accolades theyre receiving for their historic agreement on Climate Change and it seems to suggest that america and china are moving toward a new, productive relationship. Except that even while signing these accords, xi jinpings government has been taking steps that suggests it is developing a very different approach to its foreign policy, one that seeks to replace the americanbuilt post1945 International System with its own. If it continues down this path, it would constitute the most significant and dangerous shift in International Politics since the end of the cold war. Its been widely reported that xi has presided over a rise in nationalist rhetoric in recent years, much of it antiamerican. While nationalism has been circulating in china for a while, the quantity seems to have risen shamply. One count found that the number of antiwestern polemics in the official peoples daily in 2014 so far has tripled compared with the same period last year. Perhaps more important, however, is that china has begun a lowkey but Persistent Campaign to propose alternatives to the existing structure of International Arrangements in asia and beyond. Its moved from being antiamerican to postamerican. This summer beijing spearheaded an agreement with the other brics countries to create a Financial Fund that would challenge the imf. In october beijing launched a 50 billion Asian Infrastructure bank explicitly as an al midwestern tiff to the world bank. Last year president xi declared china would spend 40 billion to redevelop the old silk road. For china to fit into an International System rubs against its deepest traditions. Henry kissinger notes that china has never been comfortable with the idea of a global system of equal states. Historically china considered itself in a sense the sole sovereign government of the whole world. Diplomacy was a series of carefully contrived ceremonies in which foreign societies were given the opportunity to affirm their assigned place in the global hierarchy. One in which china sat on top. These are worrying signs not because beijings efforts will surely succeed. They may not. Many of its efforts have run into opposition, but if china continues down this path using its growing clout to ask countries to choose between the existing set of arrangements or new ones, it might create conditions for a new kind of cold war in asia. It will certainly help to undermine and perhaps eventually destroy the Current International order, one that was created by the United States after 1945 and which has been a platform on which peace and prosperity have flourished in asia for seven decades. For more, go to cnn. Com fareed and read my Washington Post column this week. Lets get started. Okay. Youve heard my thoughts on the most important relationship in the world today. Now let me bring in two real experts. Elizabeth economy is the senior fellow and director for asia studies at the council on Foreign Relations and david hatchton is the director of china studies at john homp kins. Liz, you had a great piece in Foreign Affairs and what i was struck by is after mao every chis leader has been less powerful. Until we get to xi jinping who is now, some people believe, the most powerful chinese leader since mao. If you look at what the Chinese People were saying, they were beginning to talk about the era of wen jiabao as the lost decade, a time when china had failed to capitalize on the fact that it was now the second largest economy in the world, had failed to really exert itself as a global power and china was ready for a leader like xi. The time was right for a chinese leader to take center stage. Why did he do this deal . Well, i think, first of all, he has crushing internal problems, and i would soften a bit the idea that hes the greatest leader since mao. That may prove to be true but its going to take ten years before we know its true. Right now hes two years into a tenyear period. Hes got crushing domestic problems, demographics are working against him. I think he had to consolidate and sort of pacify the external environment so he can Pay Attention internally, so this agreement reflects his domestic political problems as much as it does a desire to move into the world. Which are, liz, pollution, which is the one thing when i was in china about nine months ago, the thing you heard from local Party Officials more than anything else was pollution and the second was corruption. I suppose thats the complaint they get from ordinary Chinese People that the air and water are really dirty. Right. People cant breathe. You have 670,000 premature deaths in china because of the air quality. Were not even talking about the challenges that arise from Water Pollution and soil contamination. That is clearly one of the major issues. But there are many others. Theres the demographic challenge, rising inequality within china. Ethnic tensions. You have the recent protests in hong kong. Xi jinping really is facing an enormous number and range of domestic challenges but this is precisely why i think he has amassed so much power, and it may take eight more years to see whether he is successful in addressing all of these challenges but i dont think it takes eight more years to see whether or not he is sitting in a very powerful place within the chinese leadership. What do you make, mike, of the theres no question theres been a rise in sort of nationalist rhetoric, and as i point out, you know, all these attempts to really subvert the Old International order, alternatives to the Asian Development bank, to the imf, to the world bank. Is this xi or a longterm chinese strategy . What were seeing is china, not just xi. Were seeing a china that sees itself in great historic terms, and this isnt so much as a new status for china, its a sort of restoration of national greatness, and i think were going to face a china that on one hand is cooperative, increasingly cooperative on some economic and global issues like Climate Change, but on the other hand, i just was speaking with military people in china last week, and they are clearly going to continue to push chinas sovereignty and hes not going to give on that set of issues. So hes walking a fine line by trying to seem a good Global Citizen on the one hand but assuage this nationalistic drive on the other. What about the nationalism . I agree. I see it in two different respects. One is as mikes a alluding to, the nationalism that emanates from strength. China is the second largest economy in the world, wants to expand its influence, right . Sort of be at the center of the asiapacific and beyond. At the same time i think theres a much more insidious form of nationalism and thats the nationalism that doesnt tolerate a diversity of opinion and thats where we see xi jinping clamping down on the artists and intellectuals and talking about colluding with foreigners within the Chinese Academy of social scientists and really putting a chill i think on the kind of creativity and ennio vation he wants to support. When i look at these two forms of nationalism, i think so myself actually this second insidious form really undermines his efforts to put china out in front as a Global Leader with a shared vision for the asiapacif asiapacific. I think he faces that kind of challenge as well. Thank you both very much. That was absolutely wonderful. Next on gps, jon stewart and the iranianborn reporter on baharis four months in an iranian prison and what inspired jon stewart to make a movie about baharis experience . All about iran when we come back. 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We know going back to school is a big decision. Thats why we offer students new to college a riskfree period. So you can commit to your education with confidence. Get started at riskfreephoenix. Com. Uh, and i know my iq. Okay. Uh, and i knowuhi know what blood type i have. Oh, wow uh huh, yeah. I dont know my credit score. You dont know your credit score . I dont know my credit score. Thats really important. I mean i dont know my credit score. Dont you want to buy a house. Like, ever . You should probably check out credit karma, its free. Credit . Karma . Free . So, thats. How much . Thats how much its free. Credit karma really free credit scores. No credit card needed. Tehran, june 21st, 2009. T the city is in tumult. On that day bahari, an iranian canadian reporter from newsweek was taken from his moth mothers house, arrested, and thrown in prison. He would be held there for 118 days in solitary confinement. He wrote a terrific book about the ordeal. That book has now been turned into a movie called rosewater. It comes from the perfume that his interrogator used. It was a story im intimately familiar with. I was involved in the campaign to free bahari. The movie was able to shock me, move me. Joining me are a maz yerba harry and this other guy, an unknown first time filmmaker by the name of jon stewart. Nice to see you. What do you think of the green revolution . Did it fail, did it succeed . Well, i think if we think of it as a revolution, it failed, but it was never a revolution. It was a Green Movement. It was a movement of millions of iranians to gain their rights as citizens of the country. They did not want to be the subjects of the master, the supreme leader. So the movement continues. You may not see the manifestations of the involvement on the street, but the peoples demand to be considered as citizens of the country continues. And the fact that rouhani was elected last year was a direct result of the demonstrations into 2009. You dont think hes a great liberal . I dont think hes a great liberal, no, no, no. I mean, when rouhani was elected, people said you shouldnt judge him you shouldnt judge a book by a cover but you should also judge a book by his grammatical areas, mistakes, and i think hes done many mistakes now, and i dont think hes a liberal, but hes better than ahmadinejad, which is a great step forward. I mean, iranians, they look at any kind of sudden change with re pud yation now. They do not want a repeat of 1979 revolution. When they are looking around the neighborhood seeing what the syrians are doing for example or what happens in iraq and afghanistan, they dont want a repeat of that. Thats why the pace of reform, pace of change in iran is very slow. Excruciatingly slow, but that means that its sustainable. If the outsiders dont interfere, of course, if there is an attack, if theres any kind of bombing, that will interrupt that pace of change, but if they just let the change to take its path, its going to be a sustainable change and sustainable reform. So you filmed that mainly in jordan around ahman. Thats right. You spent six weeks in the arab world, as it were ten weeks. This was at a pretty interesting time in terms of what was going on in the arab world. Right. Is there ever not an interesting time when things are not going on in the arab world . Youre a close student of this kind of stuff. Yes. Whats your impression . Ten weeks in the arab world, did it change the way you think about the middle east . I think, you know, there are moments whenever you immerse yourself with the people in a culture, and this is in no way to suggest that filming a movie in a city is in any way akin to living there or being a part because theres a very selfselecting group of people you end up interacting with at all times. That being said, you can get a feel for the flavor and character of a place, and there are moments of great hope within it. You sense the humanity of the people there, the great hospitality of the people there, but you also see the obstacles and the barricades that are up that prevent that sort of detante were hoping for. There are moments of great hope followed by feelings of this is going to be a long cultural shift. This is a part of the world that has been trapped between authoritarianism and extremism, and its very difficult for the majority of the people who live there who are just looking to carve out a little space for them and to live their lives, to get that space and create those civic institutions when you are constantly trapped between those two poles. You are not hopefulen an iranian deal . I dont think so. I dont think there will be a deal on the 24th of november because i dont think that there is a real will either in iran or the United States to have a deal on the 24th, and there are also radical Interest Groups in both countries. In iran the revolutionary guards are making a lot of money because of the sanctions and because there is no relationship between iran and the United States, and in this country, as you know, there are many lobbies for making a lot of money by supporting the sanctions and not not a lot of incentives on either side. Fair to say whatever deal obama would bring, it would be pilloried hugely popular. Whatever he does, my feeling is it will be hugely popular and hailed throughout our political system. Thats my favorite is the new climate deal. So all they talk about in congress is we cant were not going to do a climate deal because if you dont get china on board its meaningless, utterly meaningless. We have china on board. No deal. China, no, its something else. Why would we allow the United Nations and china to decide our economy . So you realize the system right now is incentivized for status quo, for stagnation, you dont raise money on bipartisanship, on cooperation, and good governance. You raise money on demonization and thats why we set. Next, i will show you what role this show played in maziars movie and the story. It was sort of pivotal. Kid hey dad, who was that man . Dad hes our broker. He helps looks after all our money. Kid do you pay him . Dad of course. Kid how much . Dad i dont know exactly. Kid what if youre not happy . Does he have to pay you back . Dad nope. Kid why not . Dad it doesnt work that way. Kid why not . Vo are you asking enough questions about the way your wealth is managed . Wealth management at Charles Schwab i found a better deal on prescriptions. We found lower copays. And a free wellness visit. New plan. Same doctor. Im happy. Its medicare open enrollment. Have you compared plans yet . Its easy at medicare. Gov. Or you can call 1800medicare. Medicare open enrollment. Youll never know unless you go. I did it. You can too. And we are back with mass yar bahari, the writer of rosewater and jon stewart, the director of rosewater. After you were thrown in prison, i interviewed secretary hillary clinton. I have to ask you a question of personal interest. A newsweek reporter has been arrested and is going through what can only be called a stalinist show trial. What is your reaction to that . I am just appalled at the treatment that mr. Bahari and others are receiving. It is a show trial. Theres no doubt about it. In the movie the way you present it and to a certain extent in the book is this was a sort of Pivotal Moment for you personally because you suddenly realized, hey, im not alone. There are people who actually care about me. It was the best day of my imprisonment. The best day maybe because there were not other good days, that it was the best one. It was the only good day of my imprisonment because when they put you in solitary confinement, they deprive you of all your senses. You become delusional and you become suicidal, but because you dont think that you dont know whats going on outside, and your only way to communicate with the rest of the world is through your interrogator, but when my interrogator one of the Prison Guards by mistake called me mr. Hillary clinton, there and then i realized that there is a campaign for me. So that was the best moment. For a prisoner, the worst thing is to think that he or she is alone, and that was a moment that i realized that i was not alone. The certainty of the truth i mean, what you portray a lot as these guys who they think they know the truth, but you always wondering when watching the movie, are these interrogators really they seem at some level very insecure. Its a deft way of

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