Transcripts For CNNW Fareed Zakaria GPS 20150329 : vimarsana

CNNW Fareed Zakaria GPS March 29, 2015

The deadline approaches. Deal or no deal . Also is islam a religion of peace . My next gust says no. On why her former religion needs a reformation similar to the one christianity had 500 years ago. And inside a silent war going on on College Campuses across america. Its the war on the liberal arts. Its a terrible trend, so terrible ive written a book about it. Ill explain. Finally, the most interesting man in the world has died. Ill give you my memories of the founding father of singapore and a man i got to know quite well over the last two decades. But first, here is my take. Just months ago the white house was touting yemen and since then the government collapsed and an insurgency backed by iran gained ground. That insurgency is battling aagainst forces backed by the United States and saudi arabia which launched air strikes this week. Meanwhile, jihad groups are jumping in to fill the vacuum of authority. This descent to chaos startled many observers but yemens trajectory shouldnt surprise anyone. It follows a pattern in the arab world one well see in larger and more significant countries like egypt. Yemen was ruled for 33 years by a dictator. He ruthlessly suppressed opposition groups especially those with a religious orientation and in this case the shiite. He coop rat he cooperated with the war on terror but ensured over time descent would grow. His regime faced political and military opposition and eventually during the arab spring he was forced to reshine. While people both in yemen and washington promised a more Representative Government they quickly settled into a comfortable relationship with the former deputy who quickly began to rule as repress sievely as his predecessor. This is the pattern that produced terrorism in the arab world. Repress sieve, secular regimes backed by the west become illegitimate. Over time they become more repress sieve to survive and the opposition becomes more extreme, religious and violent. The insurgent and jihads have local grievances but because washington supports the dictators, the goals become anti american. Since we learned little from this history, we are now repeating it. The Obama Administration praises the presidency. His regime killed hundreds of protesters and jailed tens of thousands mostly members of the political opposition according to human rights watch. It has sense of the press and impressened journalist. There was an american president who understood the danger of blind support for arab dictators. No matter they were admirably secular and their outlook willing to jail jihads or stay at peace with with israel. He said quote, 60 years of western nations excusing and accommodateing the lack of freedom in the middle east did nothing to make us safe. That was of course george w. Bush. The fact that bushs administration so botched its remedy regime change and occupation of iraq should not blind us to the fact that it was accurate and intelligent in its diagnosis of the problem. The arab world provides no easy answers. Trapped as it is between repress sieve dictators and democrats. That does not mean blindly supporting the auto crats is the answer. With the military dictators and engages in joint military actions with the absolute monarchy of saudi arabia, we should be wondering what is going on in the shadows, mosques and jails of those countries. For more go to cnn. Com fareed and read my Washington Post column this week and lets get started. Okay. You heard my take on how history is repeating itself in yemen but the self war in yemen might bring us into a new face of history attacking the huthies and many worry this could become a great hot war. Richard haas says whatever happens in yemen, were in for 30 years of a kind of religious war in the middle east if not more. He is of course the president of the counsel on Foreign Relations. Richard, explain what that would mean to be in a 30year religious war and what are the u. S. Options . Several decades but definition of struggle in and across boarders. Civil wars, approximateproxy wars all in one. They burn and burn and burn for a long time simply because of what drives them. For outsiders, you have to be willing to impose a settlement. We learned from iraq and afghanistan millions of troops of decades dont necessarily impose settlements or hope to help this side reinforce that side train another, arm another. The u. S. Position is likely to be quite modest. What i was struck by in your piece is you point out that the saudis feel threatens. You think saudi arabia is vulnerable . I do. This is the second time they intervened in a meaningful way. Now in yemen another neighbor. The saudis unlike syrup ya where they syria, they feel directly physically threatened by what is happening. What saudi arabia looks out to what is happening in yemen but more broadly, this group called the Islamic State is a question of when and not if this group says hey, we have to challenge the country overseeing the two holeys states in the region. So i think that is coming. You also point out something which i think people have not focused enough on. Iraq is really fragmenting into three separate countries. Exactly. Iraq is effectively breaking up. You have an iranian shia version and a sunni triable iraq. When do we give up the game . Iran shia dominated iraq. The United States has to say well allow iranians to control southern and central iraq. The kurds, well support and well work with the arabs in the west with the sunnis and that might be the only way to reduce their aliening. You are describing a force fire where the United States has to play a modest role managing at the margins. Absolutely. There wont be a one size fits all strategy in each country and subcountry. Well have to choose the nature of intervention. Sometimes direct. Sometimes indirect. But i think we made a collective decision for the most part that we are not going to get centrally involved again. Again, it will be more modest and selective as and as a result we have to understand that means less results. Stay with me richard. When we come back we are going to talk about the fast approaching iran Nuclear Talks. That deadline for the deal is two days away. I want to talk about what a deal like this would look like and who would really benefit. We will discuss that when we come back. Tmobile can set you free. Now well pay off your phone. Stuck in a contract. Well cover that too. So switch to tmobile today. The lightest or nothing. The smartest or nothing. The quietest or nothing. The sleekest. Sexiest. Baddest. Safest,. Tightest,. Quickest,. Harshest. Or nothing. At mercedesbenz we do things one way or we dont do them at all. The 2015 cclass. See your authorized mercedesbenz dealer for exceptional offers through mercedesbenz financial services. If a denture were to be put under a microscope we can see all the bacteria that still exists. Polidents unique micro clean formula works in just 3 minutes, killing 99. 99 of odor causing bacteria. For a cleaner, fresher brighter denture every day. The Nuclear Talks with iran. March 31st which is tuesday is the cut off date that the west and iran set for themselves to come to a political agreement. A frame work for a final deal on irans new Clear Program and today, israels Prime Minister slammed the talks saying this agreement is fulfilling our deepest fears but just what is the agreement hes so worried about . Thats what were here to discuss. Richard haass is the counsel on Foreign Relations with us. Joining us is the president of the fund a man thats writ and studied deeply the top pick of Nuclear Weapons and energy. Joe, what is the likely deal that you know that both excites some people and frustrating Prime Minister netanyahu. They are trying to cut off irans pathways to the a bomb. Make sure they cant transition quickly from a small civilian program to the a large military program. I think we can do that. The second is to have eyes everywhere. We have to install that so if iran tries to sneak out, we can detect it. Third, a Rapid Response mek mechanism so we can catch iran cheating. If they fulfill the terms of the deal you loosen up. If they cheat snap it back in place. That is probably the most important point of this deal. Its worth negotiating today in switzerland. Lets talk about the first point. How do you make sure they dont get from civilian to nuclear . Thats basically about how much you can enrich the uranium and what level. You need a very small of highly enriched. How do you make sure the load in which uranium isnt high . The deal is going to slash irans center fugues. They can spin iranian gas and can be used to make fuel or bombs. How do you make sure iran doesnt go from fuel to bombs . Shrink the number. Going from 20,000 which they have now to about 6,000. Then you also shrink the gas supply. You get them to die lute or destroy most of that tonnage you talk about so it would take a year to go from where they are to enough material for one bomb. The cheating people say they cheated in the past. Whole facilities they didnt know about. How do you make sure that isnt happening . You can only have cameras where they allow it. Part of the deal is you want cameras everywhere seals, inspections, inventory controls track uranium from the mine to the gas cylinder. I spoke with the director general this last week and he said with the deal they are talking about, iaea can assure they can detect any anomaly the day it happens, next day or within the week. So if you get that kind of deal and i think its possible do you think politically this would work this deal would get through . This deal will be attacked on both sides in iran. It doesnt allow iran to do enough and will be attacked in United States and arab countries that allows iran to do too much and keep too much and we wont have the confidence to discern the cheating soon enough. So were going to have a debate whether this deal is good enough and compared to what . I think president obama is going to face real opposition within the u. S. Congress and i think quite early on we could have a major debate in this country about either to accept the deal under one legislative initiative or secondly whether to introduce more sanctions at this point, which effectively would be a rejection of the deal. Do you think the hard liners in iran will torpedo the deal there or hard liners in washington will torpedo the deal . Iran is an authority system. Hes going to have much more trouble selling it here. Do you think that when you look at this potential deal do you believe it is possible for iran to the maintain this enormous nuClear Program and yet, studiously stay within because it is trying to build more developed capacity you know can you be like japan, a very advanced power that is always consciously not weapon weaponizing weaponizing . We dont want iran to be in that japan situation, threshold power. Japan can build a bomb in a hat matter of months if it wanted to. Their technology were talking about is 1970s technology they got from pakistan. Part of the deal is they were limited on any research. So yes, you can put irans program in a box with a camera on it. That is the deal that is being negotiated. What does iran get for that . Thats part of the question that diplomats are dealing with today. You talk about the al turntive. We didnt have negotiations going on and iran built center fugues. Or unconstrained middle east where iran is essentially allow allowed to get weapons and others would follow suite. These are unattractive alternatives. We dont want another war. We dont want to see the middle east get worse with Nuclear Weapons under multiple hands of control. Some version of the status quo, more sanctions but were not sure we can sustain it which pushes us back to say can we get a deal thats good enough and preferable visavis these al turn terntives. If we went down the bombing path how much would we bomb in four weeks of bombing . Its appalling to me this discussion goes on. This is not a pinprick attack. This would be weeks of hundreds of u. S. And a major war in the middle east that would make the wars in afghanistan and iraq look like warmup acts and region consequences. If you think iran has influence everywhere they will use that influence everywhere. This is not a war any military leader in the United States wants to fight. Would you agree with that . Like Everything Else in life it depends. Want to fight, of course not. We cant live in a world where iran has Nuclear Weapons and other regions follow suit. Thats dangerous. Can you come up with a diplomatic alternative thats not perfect . Thats not an option. Again, is simply good enough and better than the alternatives because alternatives are not attractive. Hes right. This is what you weigh it against. The deal will be imperfect. You never buy the house for the price you initially offer. There will be compromises. What are the alternatives . Once you get the deal and look at it its better than any risks in war or allowing iran to go ahead with an unconstrained program. Gentlemen, thank you both very much. Coming up, 500 years ago christianity had a ref formation. Ice islam needs a similar reformation and she says its not peace today. Ensure active heart health. Heart i maximize good stuff like my potassium and phytosterols which may help lower cholesterol. New ensure active heart Health Supports your heart and body so you stay active and strong. Ensure, take life in. Hello. I am a fully automated Investment Advisory service. I can help you choose investments. Monitor them. And rebalance your portfolio. I can do a lot of what humans can. Except have a real conversation. If youd like that, you can always speak to someone at schwab. They arent algorithms. Try not to hold it against them. Say hello at intelligent. Schwab. Com whether you need a warm up before the big race. Or a healthy start before the big meeting theres a choice hotel thats waiting for you. This spring, choose choice twice, get a night at no price at 1,500 hotels. Book now at choicehotels. Com introducing danceallyouwant bladder leak protection. New always discreet underwear for sensitive bladders. From always, the experts in feminine protection. New always discreet underwear absorbs heavy bladder leaks faster than the leading brand so you can feel comfortably dry. Plus, always discreet has a discreet fit that hugs your curves. You barely feel it. New always discreet underwear. Now bladder leaks can feel like no big deal. Because, hey, pee happens. Curious . Go to alwaysdiscreet. Com for coupons and your free sample. Islam is not a religion of peace, thats what my next guest says Ayaan Hirsi Ali has spoken out against radical islam since. He says islam needs a reformation on the scale that christianity had in the 16th century. Indeed, Martin Luther had his 95 that sparked the reformation and hirsi ali lays it out in her book heretic. You say must lamblim is not a religion of peace. If you look at the reality today, you see tragically 70 of fatalities across the world in conflicts muslims are involved and the greatest numbers of muslims. The civilization is in a crisis and instead of having a military confrontation with every other civilization the answer lies in a reformation. So you disagree with president obama when he says the Islamic State does not represent islam or he says it isnt islamic. I want to ask you this, you are a very smart and you understand hes not writing an intellectual dissertation. This is not a thesis about the accurate way to describe isis. Hes trying to delegit miez him and the king of jordan says please dont call them islamic. We dont call them islamic. The point is not that any of these leaders dont see that of course they are drawing on a version of islam, but they are trying to delegitimize it. Do you disagree with that strategy . I think the strategy of lets not call it islamic because were going to delegitimize them weve seen it in the u. S. In the muslim world, perhaps in three or four or five decades ago and it hasnt worked. It hasnt stopped them. Let me understand. So you would rather the president of the United States say yes, the Islamic State is islamic and draws on important strains and islam is a bad religion. You think thats going to be a successful strategy . I dont think ill have our president say islam is a bad religion but ill have the president acknowledge were fighting and the drones and insure gets and counter der ererterrorism tactics will take you so far. I want the president to acre knowledge like we were at war that we have amazing ideas, what america stands for. He gave a great speech and thats what america is about, and i think if we engage in Public Diplomacy and market the ideas of life and happiness as in the past we can persuade more and more muslims to give up five Core Concepts within islam that are holding them back. Stay with this question though because i do agree with your diagnosis of the problem. I wonder though about the effectiveness of this idea of the west confronting the world of islam. Do you think that the right strategies for the west you know an outside force, powerful. Yeah. To say to the world of islam, you are all screwed up you need to fix yourself because in a sense, thats what many of the people who take the kind of views you do say and i wonder to myself look and you know this because you grew up in somalia. I was growing up in india. If you had an outside power like the United States and the west telling you youre all screwed up your attitude is actually the opposite to get very defensive. To say why you know to say there is nothing wrong with me. Here is the statement i make in the book which is which it comes to the job of ocho a reformation, it has to come from within. Someone born within islam and whether you like it or not or agree with me or not as a muslim. I can take these prosessions and propose these amendments. Im not saying our western governments do the same but what the governments can do, what the west can do an

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