Transcripts For CNNW Fareed Zakaria GPS 20150712 : vimarsana

CNNW Fareed Zakaria GPS July 12, 2015

In beijing, grave concerns over a stock market crash and what it means for the future of china. And then for something completely different, theres nothing like a dame especially dame helen mirren. I spoke to the legendary actress about playing the queen, the queen on stage and screen. Well get to all of the news in a moment. But first here is my take. You might have missed it but a meeting this past tuesday near pakistans capital city of islamabad could possibly mark the beginning of the end of americas longest war. The conflict in afghanistan which will enter its 15th year this fall. A delegation from the Afghan Government met with members of the taliban. With pakistani, chinese and u. S. Officials present as observers. Previous efforts have foundered and this one may go nowhere as well about youbut the war in afghanistan is likely to end in a forum like this one and not on the battlefield. Talking to the taliban is tough for Many Americans to accept. Dick cheney was speaking for many when he said we dont negotiate with evil. We defeat it. And yet, says Jonathan Powell tony blairs former chief of staff, he is dead wrong. In a new book terrorists at the table, why negotiating is the only way to peace, powell argues forcefully the historical conflicts like the one in afghanistan have ended only through negotiations and not military victory. Powell is no peace nick. Having been an architect of britains support for the wars in afghanistan and iraq. But over the course of his decade in office as one of blares most important aides, powell came to recognize that terrorism cannot be solved exclusively or largely by military means. He quotes huethe former chief constable in northern ire laryned who says there is no example i know of of terrorism being policed out or eliminated through use of force. Governments are loathe to talk to terrorists. Thats understandable since they regard the groups as barbaric worry about legitimizing brutality and remain convinced that military force can defeat or at least cripple them. But powell points out most governments end up talking to terrorists anyway. Citing examples ranging from the kenya to spain to colombia. The argument is simple enough. Terrorism is a reflection of an underlying political problem that almost always needs to be addressed politically. In afghanistan, for example, it reflects the reality that some part of the pashtun population about 50 of the country, believes its interests are not represented by the current government in kabul. This weeks negotiations might go nowhere, but one of the lessons that powell notes in the book is that often these talks begin too late because governments believe that one last military push will put the terrorists on the defensive even though he says there is precious little empirical evidence to support this one last heave argument. He reminds us that a crucial part of general David Petraeus surge in iraq was reaching out to sunni militants, terrorists who had been fighting American Forces addressing their grievances and indeed paying them to move from being foes to friends. He notes that petraeus admitted that the United States waited too long before it talked to people who had, quote, american blood on their hands. Of course none of this would apply to isis would it . In fact Jonathan Powell is bold enough to suggest that it could. After all, isis is a particularly brutal and murderous group. But it is successful largely because it has tapped into the fewerors and rage of disempowered sunnis in iraq and syria. That is a political grievance that can only be addressed politically. Talking to terrorists is not giving in to their demands, argues powell. But because governments are so spooked by the image and the optics of it all, they usually delay, fumble make mistakes and prolong conflicts that could be resolved earlier and with much less bloodshed on all sides. For more go to cnn. Com fareed and read my Washington Post column this week. And lets get started. Today was supposed to be the day that all european leaders, Merkel Hollande and all met in brussels. The agenda was to vote yay or nay on a bailout deal for greece. Hours ago the meeting was scrapped because the finance ministers who work for those leaders could not find common ground. Instead, a smaller subset of leaders from the eurozone nations is set to start meeting this hour. The word out of brussels is that mean european officials believe the latest proposal from athens doesnt go far enough. Will greece get kicked out of the euro . Should it be. Joining me in new york to discuss are the professor of economics and Public Policy at harvard. The times assistant managing editor and cnns Global Economics analyst and in london is the editor in chief of the economist. Welcome, all. Zani you have the economist has a lead editorial saying to stay in the eurozone the greece Prime Minister will have to jettison almost every promise he made to his voters. Can you hear me zani . Im terribly sorry. I cant hear you. Well go to the others. Rauna, it always seemed as though germany at the end of the day was willing to bail out greece, that it pushed hard it really made it look like it was trying its damnedest. Every time it stared at the abyss it pulled back to and told the European Central bank provide the funds, it wrote the checks. This time seems different. I think this time is different. Youre right that it seemed like germanys leaders were working to make a deal. If you spend any time in germany you see the public at large really never wanted a deal with greece. The german public i think feels like hey, let them go. Were better off without them. They have never believed the greeks were good for their word in terms of reforms and i think it underscores that this has become a political problem as much as an economic problem. The greeks have said fine well leave. Socialist government. Theyve taken all this pain. Tremendous pop ulymph. You can understand their point of view. But i dont think the math works. What i was going to ask you before we were technically interrupted. You wrote an editorial just before greece made its proposals where you said to stay in the eurozone the Prime Minister will have to jettison almost every promise he has made to his voters. He sort of did in the plan he put forward. Yet, it doesnt seem to be working. What do you think is going on . I think, as rana said it has moved from the realm of politics. A week ago the greek people said decisively no to an agreement or set of measures that the creditors demanded of them. Four or five days later, Alexis Tsipras the greek Prime Minister essentially agrees to those demands with approval of the greek parliament. Now particularly amongst the Northern European creditors there is a question of can we trust this guy. Theyre fed up with him. Whatever the rights and wrongs of the actual measures that they want the greeks to take there are a large number of people in Northern Europe particularly not just the germans, but say the fins or sloefacks who think the grexit is better. France and italy are keen to keep the greeks in. The really important person at the meeting this afternoon will be angela merkel. Her finance minister wants the greeks out. He is talking about a temporary grexit. I think you can probably cut the word temporary there, it will be temporary at least officially so that no one has to deal with the consequences of how you deal with the losses of if you push them out permanently. So he wants that. She is undecided. I think she will in the end want to keep them in. She really doesnt want to be the chancellor who presides over the breakup of the euro. Its getting difficult for her. Her electorate is against keeping greece in. They think everyone would be better off with them out. Its a tough political thing. What theyre going to have to hammer out for the greeks to stay in is that the greeks will have to do even more than they were offering theyll have to do a lot of actions up front to rebuild trust. I expect the program will be much tougher than anything on the table before. Paul krugman and others say this is a recipe for total disaster. That more austerity will plunge greece into a depression that this is austerity on steroids its bad for europe and bad for the world. Lets start with this referendum and what tsipras did, which paul krugman urged them to do taking the country off a cliff. It was very irresponsible. On top of that they spit in the germans face. They were being offered money now. They should have taken it. And then after they had taken the money, then they asked to renegotiate. You dont default on a debt when somebody is still giving you money. I think a very important thing to understand about the austerity, there are many mistakes. Certainly the debt should have been written down across the eurozone right away. But, in greece you could have torn up all of their debt and they still had to close a 10 gap of gdp in their deficit. Thats like 1. 7 trillion in the United States. Imagine if we had to do half of that. And most of the austerity that theyve felt has been that they had a credit card when the world market saw that they were fraudulent with their books, they lied about their debt they lied about their deficit. It got cut off. The creditors, the official creditors came in and they definitely cushioned the blow. But it was very to pay that kind of money. Theyve racked up a huge bill. It does need to be written down but most of the changes have to come from inside greece. They have to want to become a modern european state. I see little will to do that. 90 seconds before the break, rana can a temporary or permanent grexit work, or is this another liamman like moment . A lot of private creditors have gotten out of greece. Were not going to see Major International dominos. China creates a new greece every six weeks but i think it threatens the political integrity of europe. If you have one falling out, whats the future or portugal spain, italy . This wont happen right away but it creates a slow burn problem. There needs to be political integration that isnt there yet. When we come back doesnt this mess in europe make americas Crisis Management look Even Stronger . Well talk about that in a moment. Do you like the passaaadd . Its a good looking car. This is the model rear end event. The model year end sales event. Its year end its a rear end event. 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Many wrinkle creams come with high hopes, but hope. Doesnt work on wrinkles. Neutrogena® rapid wrinkle repair has the fastest retinol formula. To work on fine lines and even deep wrinkles in just one week. Neutrogena®. We are back with rana ken and zani from london. As we like to say in america, enough about them. Now what about us. Ken, what does this tell you about Crisis Management . It seems as though the bush and obama administrations give credit to hank paulson and tim geithner and ben bernanke handled a similar kind of crisis better in a way that was resolved quickly and early. Yeah. I mean lets remember we this puerto rico going on at this same time. When greece appeared it was clear they were not going to grow their way out of it. Their debt was too high. They were cut off from world markets. They should have written it down. It would have been very painful and tough with the german voters. It would have gotten it over with. Instead they keep leaving them in this nevernever land where theyre cut off from markets because the debt hasnt been written down enough. Theyre dribbling out money to them which keep them better than if they didnt but the economy is crippled. They made very optimistic projections. Growth is going to be fine. Everybody did it. The imf, europeans. Everybody said theyll be fine. It wasnt a healthy development. Fundamentally, zani isnt the problem that the United States has the capacity to bankroll its weak performing members in a way that europe doesnt . You had the economist has a wonderful comparison where it pointed out, forget about the germans bankrolling the greeks. Connecticut banksrolls the weaker states in america, i am assuming mississippi, alabama, those kinds of states much more 5 of connecticuts gdp over the last 20 years has been net income transfers to states like mississippi and alabama. I mean thats because the u. S. Has a much more fiscally integrated systems. Its where the europeans have to end up. They created a single currency without creating the economic integration and the fiscal integration that was necessary for that to survive. But i think the difference the europeans are absolute champions at kicking the can down the road. What they have done with greece ken is right. They should have written the debt down in 2010. Instead they kicked the can down. This is not a systemic immediate problem to europe in the way that it was a few years ago. If greece goes out of the euro now it will not wreck the euro overnight. What it will do is introduce a corrosive uncertainty that at some point will become a real problem again. Because there is a fundamental tension in the euro. Its supposed to be irrevocable, so once you join it thats it youre there for good but its also supposed to be based on rules and discipline. The way this greece drama ends will determine which of those things is more important. Fundamentally does the problem ken has talked about, which is the lack of competitiveness in greece, is europe Strong Enough to be able to carry this kind of forget greece. There are other countries that are uncompetitive. Part of the issue is europe hasnt done much structural reform in the last ten years. Thats true in some cases. I think that the core of Europe Germany really at the center of it is very strong. The germans are incredibly competitive. The french could be more competitive by making certain moves that i think would be relatively easy. I think really the issue is what you said earlier. Europe needs a hank paulson. One integrative fiscal policy and well transfers. Thats a deep extension question. It goes to the difference between the nations. Its a huge issue that europe has been kicking down the road at every possible juncture. I do think that if greece goes out and there is a kind of fundamental insecurity about what is this currency going to be i think thats going to come to a head. Lets balance it the other way if suddenly merkel says were writing off all the debt. Portugal, ireland and spineain, i favor it. But then says german exit. Thats a danger hanging over if you go too far in the other direction. Zani final thought from you. What all this means, the u. S. Looks better the dollar remains stronger. At the end of the day it would be fair to say that we are back to that single engine World Economy where the United States continues to power along . Well the u. S. Is looking stronger yes. Lets put the greek thing in the short term in some perspective. Finally the European Central bank last year suddenly realized that it needed to boost the european economy more. The europeans broadly have got off the austerity kick that they were pushing so hard. The european economy, although not great and im not an apologist for it even though ive moved here i think its actually not that bad. In many ways things are improving. The fact that the european politicians are so willing to go this far on greece is a testament to their general confidence that they can handle the fallout. In the long term i think it will have big consequence but in the shorter term i think things are not so bad. Very quick. 30 seconds. Would you agree with that that at the end of the day, you know things are looking better . Yeah. Absolutely. What doesnt kill you makes you stronger. And they could handle a grexit. On the other hand the political fallout is unpredictable. Economics looking a lot better than politics. I worry more about what does this mean for people like putin. Can other nations stir up more trouble if europe is seen as unable to get its house in order. I love the line china creates a new greece every six weeks. To put that in perspective. Next on gps, the greek talks are not the only ones going down to the wire. The wests negotiations with iran

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