Worlds markets . Are we headed into another recession . I will talk to two experts who have slightly different perspectives. And a very special treat. The great Harry Belafonte, star of stage and screen, activist and humanitarian on the whiteness of the Academy Awards and the blackness of the president and the state of Race Relations in america today. And finally, rolling on the red carpet in egypt and rolling and rolling and rolling, ill explain. First, heres my take. It is the line that might have sunk a president ial campaign. It came during last saturdays debate from senator marco rubio. He knows exactly what hes doing. Barack obama is over taking a systemic approach to make the country like the rest of the world. He repeated the phrasing almost robotically. What about the substance of what he said . The charge that president obama is attempting to change america fundamentally is a staple of right wing talk shows. As they point out, Rush Limbaugh glenn beck and others routinely assert that obamas policies are intentionally designed to transform america and dull its distinctive edge. This rhetoric does raise an important question. What makes america exceptional . All american politicians, including obama, use that word. Most genuflect before it, but few actually define it. Today american exceptionalism is seen as economic. Many conservatives say obama care, Energy Policy and the regulations have all violated a core difference between america and the rest of the world by expanding the roll of the state of the economy. How limited is American Government comparatively . The conservative Heritage Foundation has a index of freedom that ranks companies that from government. America comes in 11th behind canada, australia, ireland, switzerland and singapore. That doesnt seem exceptional. From the beginning america was exceptional. So it was obviously about something other than tax policy. What about freedom. Certainly, liberty was central. But the french revolution was also fueled by a similar idea and never implemented successfully. What they made america truly exceptional from the start . It was a country founded not on race, ethnicity or religion but on ideas. And, crucially, those ideas were open to all. This openness to people, ideas, cultures and religions created a new person, the american. The great historian of the american founding gordon wood explains his view of american exceptionalism. In an important sense, he writes, we have never been a nation in any traditional meaning of the term. We americans do not have a nationality the way other peoples do. Which, of course, is why we can absorb immigrants more easily than they can. Other countries have small states and low taxes. There are many liberal democracies, even republics in the world today, but no other country from its outset believed in the idea of openness and the mixture of people as central to its founding. America is a nation created on the basis of diversity of race, religion, National Origin and there are efforts to change america. There are plans for religious and ethnic tests to bar immigrants and visitors and to track immigrants and visitors when they are in the u. S. There have been calls to deport people, even american citizens. There are proposals to monitor houses of worship. These ideas would fundamentally change america, tearing at its founding dna. It would make it much more like the rest of the world, becoming one more nation in which certain ethnic groups and religions are privileged and others are outsiders. A country where diversity is a threat to National Character rather than a strength. Who is proposing these changes . Last time i checked, it was not barack obama. For more, go to cnn. Com fareed and read my Washington Post column this week. Lets get started. A series of hearings on capitol hill this week were frightening, not for their partisanship, but for their substance about the threats the United States is confronted with today. The director of National Intelligence told congress theres currently more terrorist safe havens in the world than any time in history. He called isis the number one terror threat. Vincent stewart, the head of the Defense Agency went further saying in 2016 isis will probably attempt direct attacks on the United States and more attacks in europe. What should we take from this and what is to be done . Joining me now in washington is michael chertoff, former secretary of Homeland Security and now the chairman of security firm. He is also an adviser to jeb bush. Here with me in new york is peter bergen, Cnn National Security analyst and the author of United States jihad, which was my book of the week last week. Michael, tell us what you made of those hearings. One of the things i worry about is intelligence agencies these days seem to view it as part of their job to make sure nobody can ever tell them they missed something. They have tended to make pretty gloomy pictures. Nobody notices the bad stuff doesnt happen. God for bid there should be one attack and you didnt predict there was going to be an attack. Is there some of that going on or is it worry . I think theres always been a little bit of inclination on the part of intelligence agencies to be comprehensive and make sure that they dont get accused of missing something. That being said, i think what James Clapper said and general stewart said was what i pretty much expected. The reality is if you look around the world, radical violent jihadism has radicalized. Its not just in south asia and middle east, we now see evidence of europe as well. I think it was no surprise and the gloomy prognosis is one thats warranted by the facts. Peter, why is it happening . Why are we seeing this metropolitan as metastasization . Al qaeda was on its death bed and then isis was able to come in and strengthen this back. I think weve grown to the various forms of this Political Science experiment. In libya, where we overthrew the terrible Moammar Gadhafi and now we have a war where isis has inserted itself. Now were five years out from the arab spring, no end in site. And like many others i was very optimistic because al qaeda didnt play a role in this. They were absent. But this group and others who have lied to them have taken advantage of this situation. Peter, you have written this terrific book. The question i think on everyones mind is, how does this happen . How does a seemingly normal couple in San Bernardino get radicalized and become foot soldiers in t s in the isis war . Some of the people i profile were tremendously excited american citizens joining al qaeda or joining isis and seeing themselves as part of the utopian experiment. We see that throughout history. They tend to attract idealistic people even if there are crimes involved. Mostly young men . Mostly young men. And theyre alienated in some way . Yes, theyre ailiented. Lots of people have been disappointed and alienated. Theres no easy answer. There is a profile of these people. The San Bernardino couple fits closely to the profile of most american jihadist. They were married, they had a good job. In germany in the 70s was a group of borgeois terrorists. Whether it was jihadi john joining isis, these are not people terribly its not something somebody who is illiterate is going to adopt . Absolutely. Michael, what to do about this . What to do about this homegrown threat. You must have thought a lot about this when you were at Homeland Security . Whats happened now is the rise of social media. Were beginning to see the Companies Platforms for social media being more energetic in shutting down the twitter feeds and similar types of communications that are used to recruit. We also need to have a strategy to enlist local communities in counterradicalization. And that means religious leaders, family members, community groups, who have to begin to push back against this narrative. And also, frankly, to identify people who are in the early stages of becoming violent or radicalized, so that they can have an intervention before they go all the way. There are several republican candidates, not jeb bush, who argue that we should be putting certain special conditions on muslims, whether in screening immigrants, tracking them, eavesdropping or, you know, spying on mosques. What do you think of that whole set of strategies . You know, a lot of this is based on kind of the foolish idea that you can identify who is a muslim or that the people who become radicalized all come from an islamic background. In fact, weve seen historically, often you have christians who become radicalized rather quickly and then become enlistees in radical jihad. I think we have to focus on behavior, not on ethnic or religious background. Obviously, whenever we admit people in the United States, we have to be careful in vetting them. Theres processes in place now that give us more information about who comes in. To generalize growth based on religion is a huge mistake. I can tell you, i remember swearing in american citizens in iraq members of our armed forces who are muslim, who actually came from the area and they were willing to put their lives on the line to protect america and we shouldnt be alienating those people. Pleasure to have you both on. Next on gps, another threat. 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Oh yeah, im all about more, teddy brosevelt. Geico. Expect great savings and a whole lot more. It was another very rough week for investors around the world, from new york to london to hong kong. Those are just markets. What do they have to do with the overall economy . Well, potentially quite a bit, according to no less of an expert fed reserve chair janet yellin. She told congress the stock markets would weigh on the outlook for the broader u. S. Economy. What should we be looking for in those markets and the broader u. S. And Global Economy in the coming weeks . Let me bring in martin wolf, chief economics analyst from the times, who joins us from london. And here on set with me is r rana foroohar, times assistant managing editor for economics and business and cnns Global Economic analyst. You have been warning of what you believe is a coming global recession. Explain to me why its right. Global downturns tend to happen once every eight years. Were sort of on track. Whats worrying me now is the market jitters weve seen in the last few months from china are in some ways the echos of the crisis. You had a big bubble in the u. S. And we stop spending here in the u. S. And developing countries led by china took on the burden. They run up their own bubble and thats bursting and you got to same thing happening once again. Chinas downturn and capitol flight and i think the market jitters are going to continue for some time. Youre saying the United States is not in recession and china is not in recession and those three collectively account for Something Like 75 of the Global Economy. Are you still saying that . I suppose it means what one means by recession. If rana is saying we have a slowdown in the World Economy, thats certainly true. I expect the World Economy to grow below its potential this year. I dont think theres any real doubt about that. But if we mean by a recession an actual shrinkage of global output i think thats still very unlikely. Were not seeing that happen in the Major Economies in the world. I would be astonished if that happened in china and the countries in real difficult arent big enough to actually give us negative growth for the whole World Economy. Its not a happy picture and, obviously, if you look at the markets, the data overhangs, you look at gechlt opolitical risks, of course, you could imagine negative sharps, which would tip us into something horrible. I would be astonished if it was something as bad as 2009. Can you see the type of spill over than the last leverage bubble bursting had . I dont think this is a 2008 situation but we have the two major forces in the economy. The slowdown in the markets, which is being slowed down by the oil prices that. Makes the slowdown in many of these countries worse. Same time you have the end of easy money. A lot of governments are tapped out. We see that those two forces are creating this very rocky environment. Thats going to mean more volatility and just kind of an unexpected pair di eed paradgm investors, which coupled with the political issues around falling oil prices, it makes the political situation rock here. That presents a tough view for the year ahead with investors. When i talk to businessmen they seem worried about the fact that Interest Rates are so low, they think that Central Banks should be normalizing them so we dont have this cheap money so artificially makes asset prices go up. You argue, on the other hand, that not only should Central Banks be going into negative territory, they might essentially take helicopters out and spray money into the economy. Explain why you think thats important. I think businesspeople are wrong, fundamentally wrong. I admire the understanding of their businesses but they simply in my point of view, dont understand the Overall Economic system. We are in a very strange place. Weve been there for about 15 years in which we suffer from a really big and sustained global savings glut and really big deficiency in the investment. Interest rates are naturally very low. Monetary policy is reflecting that. I was interested, and its a reflection of exactly this, what rana was saying. Its the end of easy money when the fed has just raised rates a quarter point. Its the end of easy money. But shes right, because the fed tightened too soon. The fundamental problem is the equilibrium rate is fantastically low for our economy. That takes us into a much deeper and bigger discussion than the one we can now have. All right. Were going to have to come back to the subject. It is very complex, but fascinating. Thank you both. Next, why did president obama just ask congress for lots more money to counter russia . A new cold war . Pg e is committed to clean energy and part of that commitment is our partnership with habitat for humanity. Our mission is to build homes, community and hope. Our homeowners are lowincome families, so the ability for them to have Lower Energy Cost is wonderful. We have been able to provide about 600 families with solar on their homes. Thats over nine and a half Million Dollars of investment by pg e, and that allows us to provide clean energy for everyone here. Its been a great partnership. Together, were building a better california. Now for our what in the world segment. This weekend in his Budget Proposal, president obama asked to quadruple spending for u. S. And nato forces in europe over last year. Why does the pentagon need so much more money to send american troops to peaceful, tranquil europe . Because officials in washington and many european capitals are increasing worried about a threat they thought had gone away russia. Now you might think that the danger of a russian invasion of europe is far fetched, but lets understand what the pentagon and europeans might be thinking. Russia has invaded two sovereign countries in just the last eight years, georgia in 2008 and the ukraine in 2014. Both former soviet republics on its borders. Ukraine has a sizable population of ethnic russians whose dissatisfaction was used to justify the use of force. The baltic states, estonia, lithuania, latvia all share that characteristic, but with one crucial difference. They are all members of nato. The alliance is bound to regard an attack on them as an attack on all. To see what would happen if russia invaded the three baltic states. The results were shocking. Russian forces crushed natos defenses. Vladimir putins army was able to reach latvia and estonias capitals in less than three days. Natos infantry couldnt retreat for the most part. It was destroyed by the russian attacks. Why the dramatic defeat for the most powerful military alliance on earth . Rand says russia has far more firepower and manpower in the region. In the 1980s there were 300,000 u. S. Army soldiers in europe. Today theres 30,000. Russia has 22 according to rand, while nato has 12 baltic ba it. Talions. Russia has vamped up their military maneuvers to a point unheard of since the cold war. What does nato need to do to face down this renewed russian threat . The obama administrations Budget Proposal this week would add one brigade for europe that rotates