Also, the two state solution. Is israel making it a virtual impossibility. And the United States withholds 1 billion from pakistan. Will that nation finally get tough on terror . All that with top minds in Foreign Policy. Finally war in the south china sea. How likely is it to happen in 2018 . Gps viewers looked into their crystal balls. Ill tell you what they, what you told us. But first heres my take. The most enlightening commentary on what is going on in iran was written 162 years ago. In his book on the french revolution, revolutions are not always brought about by a gra e le decline from bad to worse. Often bursts into rebellion the moment it begins to grow lighter. The regime which is destroyed by a revolution is almost always an improvement on its immediate predecessor and experience teaches the most critical bad governments is the one which witnesses their first steps to reform. Why are these protests taking place in iran and not in say north korea . This is the question for us. Deeply antagonistic relationship between washington and tehran makes it easy to forget that iran is more open than many other countries in the middle east. Compare the status of women and minorities in saudi arabia and iran and you will find theres really no comparison. Over the past two decades iran has consistently elected president s who are opposed by the hard line establishment of that country. In 1997 it elected mahammad hatami who now on house arrest. And then he was a rank outsider to the democracy that had run iran since 1979. He was a street smart politician with no credentials and deemed a threat to the hold on power. Today it has another reformist president who has been twice elected the second time with a thumping majority. Irans hard line establish. Has sought to under mine his agenda. Some observers speculate the protests have been engineered by the hard liners who will use them to have a total end to reform. Off the french regime, the abuses were not new but the light in which they were viewed was. More crime had existed in the Financial Department at an earlier period but since then changes had taken place both in government and society which made them more keenly felt than before. Similarly the economy has always been a dysfunctional mess, a toxic mixture of protectionism, socialism and corruption but in recent years people have had their hopes raised by the promises of reformers. The expectation that sanctions would be lifted and the knowledge of life outside iran. The protests were triggered by a series of economic reforms. The 2006 book the j curve argued some countries are stable because theyre closed. North korea and belarus for example. While others are stable because they are open like the United States and japan. The former shield themselves from the winds of globalization and the latter are flexible enough to adapt to the forces. The most difficult period is when a country is moving from being close to being open. If the regime is enlightened and strategic it might be able to reform enough to weather this rocky transition. But there are two other more likely paths. The chaos produces a return to repression or a collapse of the state. Iran has the ingredients for a revolution. Over half the population is under 30. Large numbers of the youth are educated yet unemployed. Almost 50 million iranians have smartphones with which they can learn about the world and reformers have consistently raised expectations but never been able to deliver on their promises. But the regime also has instruments of power, ideology, repression all of which it is ready to wield to stay in control. What appears most likely for iran is a period of instability in an already volatile middle east. For more go to cnn. Com fareed and reed my Washington Post column this week and lets get started. Irans National Police said the on going protests are now over. The disturbances have ended a spokesman declared but perhaps he was premature. When will the unrest really end . What is the end game . Thomas edwin joins us on skype from tehran. Here with me in new york is a top expert on iran, a senior fellow at the carnegie for peace. Thomas, let me ask you first, can you tell us anything about the news that mahammad has been arrested and has been fuelling the protests and does that suggest there is a skism within the regime . Thank you fareed. Look, there has been a report that hes been arrested and of course one of irans stop generals, general jafari has implicitly accused president former president ajad of being involved in the protests. But i dont know if this points at the real involvement into this protest. Of course there is skism in the regime. The protests have to do with the upcoming with the succession issue for Supreme Leader and also plays into the ongoing debate here between hard liners and performers and why is that so . Because the president released a publicized part of a budget, that gave out very Sensitive Information that insighted many people that said that religious institutes were getting lots of money from the upcoming government budget. At the same time, the first protest that kicked off this wildfire that spread across the country was according to many initiated by hard liners. Theres a lot going on inside the establishment. It does strike me that its fascinating that what seems to have fueled this as you say were r revealing how much money the military, hard liners, religious foundations were getting and of course, the cell phone revolution, where you have 48 million smartphones in iran. Also something he pushed for faster internet speed. So you have the two things that were caused by openness rather than closeness. What do you make of this skism within the regime . Political Scientists Say thats a very, very tough moment when you have internal divisions. The Islamic Republic of iran has been shrinking. Whether there will be skisms within Iran Security forces. We havent seen it within revolutionary guards. You have a lot of people protesting because of the price of food. You have some people protesting because of lack of freedom. But we still havent seen a Critical Mass of people protesting both. One of the reasons is because irans regime, the one thing they do very well is repression and theyre very good at decapitating any alternatives to themselves. Labor leaders, intellectual leaders have been exiled and imprisoned. The key person remains the Supreme Leader of iran who is now almost the longest serving leader, dictator in the world. A couple older than him. Ayatollah is 77 years old. I think were dealing with the psychology of 80 Million People but also the psychology of one individual. In 1978, five months before the shaw of irans government collapse, the ciass, what they didnt know was the shaw had advanced cancer and didnt have the mental or physical fitness and we didnt know about the fitness of ayatollah. Thats only what well be able to tell in retrospect. If you look at when the regimes start to seem vulnerable, it really is more when they start opening up. Uhhuh. Yet, u. S. Policy particularly under the Trump Administration but in general is always to tighten the screws which tends to make the country more isolated, make it more nationalistic, make it more resilient, if you think about cuba where for 50 years we tried to do regime change. What is the right strategy when you watch this kind of openness . How would one encourage it and not reenforce the hard liners . One of the paradoxes of iran is the worst elements of the Iranian Regime resemble north korea and the best want to be like south korea. Its a challenge for u. S. Foreign policy because to prevent iran from becoming north korea requires political and economic isolation but to help Iranian Society become like south korea requires political and economic integration. Requires a sophisticated u. S. Approach which is difficult because the official slogan is death to america. Invariably every american politician wants to oppose to the Iranian Regime and support opponents of the Iranian Regime. Thomas, what does the mood feel like in tehran . You have written about how much smaller these protests are than the Green Movement in 2009. Why is that . What do iranians tell you particularly in tehran where you noted the protests are quite muted . Yeah. Well, look, a lot of people in tehran are middle class people seeking stability and security and proposing gradual change in the system. At the same time they see irans outside enemies, President Trump if you will, saudi arabia, the Islamic State that are also threatening their existence. These people feel that any form of increased attention on the street might hurt them. What you get in tehran, the place where 3 Million People went on the streets in 2009 is people are saying i share a lot of the thanings that the protesters are saying but im afraid of violence and insaeblt. And you have the regime pointing out you would be playing in Donald Trumps hands. Thank you both gentlemen. Fascinating discussion. Next, the koreas come together. The u. S. And pakistan ripped apart. The world worries about American Leadership. We will talk about all that and more when we come back. Any object. Any surface. If youve got a life you gotta swiffer each unique piece comes to life in the same way. Ands. A messy, sloppy, splattery way. But now shes found a way to keep her receipts tidy, even when nothing else is. Brand vo snap and sort your expenses with quickbooks and find, on average, 4,340 in tax savings. Smarter Business Tools for the worlds hardest workers. Quickbooks. Backing you. Steyer the president S National Security adviser guilty. His Campaign Chairman under indictment. His soninlaw secret talks with russians. The director of the fbi fired. Special counsel Robert Muellers criminal investigation has already shown why the president should be impeached. You can send a message to your representatives at needtoimpeach. Com and demand they finally take a stand. This president is not above the law. Theres much to talk about in the world and were going to do just that. Were going to start with north korea. At the beginning of the week we had the battle over whose Nuclear Button is bigger. Wednesday the telephone hot line was reestablished after two years. At the end of the week the two koreas announced facetoface talks to be held in two days and saturday trump said he would be willing to talk to kim on the phone under the right conditions. Joining me now are jane harmon, the former congresswoman from california who is the director of the Wilson Center. She served in key roles on Homeland Security committees. Richard hoss is the president of council on Foreign Relations and the author of the world in disarray. Top Foreign Policy adviser to both bushes. He was last in government as director of policy planning under the second president bush. Dan cena was the chief spokesman in the early months of the iraq war and Senior Adviser to both paul ryan and mitt romney. It seems to me is not one more trump tweet which has gone on but the north and south are moving towards some kind of possibly deal . Well, its a conversation about the olympics. Lets understand its a sports event in the next few weeks that will get world attention. What i like is its an opening conversation to the right conversation. And the right conversation includes south korea, the United States, i would hope china, possibly russia which has been a major pro live rater to north korea and others and that conversation is about how to reach a deal which has to be a freeze for a freeze before north korea becomes totally nuclear capable. Freeze of north koreas arsenal in return for some steps that the u. S. And south korea would do. Freeze of arsenal and further development. They havent mastered the reentry cycle for their missiles. That means the entire u. S. Foreign policy would have to walk back from the declared goal which is the total denuclearization of north korea. At one level hes very flexible because he doesnt believe in anything but for him to walk back and to make a concession seems not in his character. Well, there would be a way to say that denuclearization remains the ultimate goal but accept certain types of arrangements whether its a freeze on production of warheads and missiles. Its a Bilateral Dialogue between south korea and north korea. Unlikely at the top of the south korean agenda will be north Korean Nuclear weapons and missiles. South korea has cared about the stability of the peninsula. I would feel better if they dropped it to a dialogue and get a seat at the table. The best way to defend america interest here. How much does it matter that in the midst of all this trump is doing these tweets . Look, i think that the International Community and different players around the world have become like discount these tweets. Its noise but they really deal with tillerson, mattis, pompeo, mcmaster. Theres a discount factor applied to the tweets. Doesnt his response to the book show that you can only control him so much . Absolutely. I also think theres a danger if the president starts to look irrelevant. More and more players around the world are saying well deal with hiS National Security adviser and the president and his tweets doesnt matter. What happens when it does matter . What happens when the president lays down a line on the issue he wants to enforce and the world is saying it doesnt matter, just the president on twitter . It was trump who focused on north korea first which obama didnt. Trump personally tweets or no tweets. I think he should be given credit for that and also for a focus on israel and palestine. If he can make a deal or be part of a deal on north korea which his pred sesers couldnt make we ought to salute him. You say in the new book the United States under trump now is the principle disrupter in the international system. Thats a strong charge. It is a strong charge and has the virtue of being true. Look, you wrote an important book years ago about a post American World. The one thing neither you nor i imagined was the idea that would come about not because of the rise of china or because of american exhaustion. It came about because of choice. Donald trump does not see many of the virtues or advantages in American World leadership, has pulled the United States out of any number of global arrangements, from the paris climate just attended the conference on migration, the only country in the world not to attend. Tpp was a major decision in the third day of the administration. So this is an administration that is abdicated the traditional all American Leadership role and theres no one else ready and able to fill those shoes, certainly not in ways sensitive to american interests. So this is a consequential presidency. Dont get me wrong fareed. It is an expensive presidency all the same. Isnt that the problem with these episodic problems with dealing with north korea . Is it going to work if the United States is genuinely pulling back . Could it enforce a deal like that . I dont know. The prior deals the deal bill clinton made wasnt enforced and bush the u. S. Doesnt seem to have anymore a global strategy and when you link north korea and iran and pakistan which were going to talk about, the proliferation problems will require a global strategy. I agree with richard that we need to lead. We havent been leading for a long time. I dont blame this all on President Trump. At least he is calling attention or did first thing in his presidency to what is the most urgent proliferation problem. And hes gotten some things right from a policy standpoint. He got two resolutions through the u. N. Security council. 150 votes. Pretty extraordinary. The relationship between the white house and japan is very strong. Tokyo seems to be interested as it relates to north korea and the security threats with how the white house is handling it. So they have made they deserve some credit. I agree theres no sort of global comprehensive strategy but they doesnt mean they arent getting some things right. And i think north korea they have gotten some things right. When we come back were going to talk about Something Else that they might have gotten right on pakistan. The Trump Administration is playing tough announcing it will withhold almost all security. Will that make pakistans government finally stop giving safe havens to terrorists as President Trump claims they do when we come back. Secret visit. Hallucinations and delusions. The unknown parts of living with parkinsons. What plots they unfold, but only in my mind. Over 50 of people with parkinsons will experience hallucinations or delusions during the course of their disease. If your loved one is experiencing these symptoms, talk to your parkinsons specialist. There are Treatment Options that can help. My visitors should be the ones i want to see. My visitors should be the ones i wanti did my ancestrydna and where i came from. And i couldnt