Transcripts For CNNW Fareed Zakaria GPS 20180729 14:00:00 :

Indepth examinations of global issues, featuring interviews and roundtable discussions. Enemies. Now after meeting with jeanclaude, he says the eu and u. S. Obviously love one another. Seemingly bizarre sbun predictable behavior is part of a canny and wise strategy, that hes playing a fourdimensional chess, operating in space time. If so, hes getting badly beaten here on earth. In none of these situations has he actually been able to extract real concessions and there is a cost to this bluster and flip flopping. Trump is creating a reputation for the United States as erratic, unpredictable, unreliable and fundamentally hostile to the global order. Leader after leader in europe has made this clear. George osbourne told me when he was britains finance minister, you knew the United States president had your back. The most tangible data suggesting that the United States is losing its good reputation comes from The Economist adam poser. He argues that countries are bypassing the United States and constructing a postamerican world economy. You can see this in the flurry of Trade Agreements that dont include the u. S. , from the transpacific partnership, which was signed minus america to the trade deal the European Union just signed with japan and many others that are in the works. The most dramatic indication of the world side stepping the u. S. , he says, is the decline in Foreign Investment in america. It has fallen off a chif, he to told me. Net Foreign Investment into the u. S. Has dropped by half since 2016. Perhaps some of the decline is part of a longer term trend. Other countries are growing faster than the u. S. But for decades, that reality has been countered by another reality. That among the worlds rich nations, america was eunique in having strong Growth Prospects coupled with stable, predictable, promarket policies. Trumps attacks on trade, allies, his willingness to punish and reward individual companies and general unreliability all add up to a picture of policymaking that looks like that of an erratic developing company run by a strong man. The difference is americas strong man has the power to disrupt the entire global economy. For more tog to cnn. Com fareed and read my Washington Column this week. And now, lets get started. Is the war between the United States and iran actually possible . The leaders of the two enemy nations have been threatening each other, since last weekend. It all began last sunday when irans president , hassan rouhani said the war between two nations would be the mother of all wars. President trump, of course, responded late that night with a tweet that said, in all caps, never, ever threaten the United States again, or you will suffer consequences the like of which few throughout history have ever suffered before. Irans Foreign Minister responded similarly, in all caps, color us unimpressed. And the leader of irans powerful force threatened thursday if trump began a war, it would be iran that ended it. Tough talk. Joining me now, robin wright, contributing writer at the new yorker and fellow at the Woodrow Wilson center, and the author of losing an enemy, now Senior Fellow at the foundation for the defense of democracies. Robin, what do you make of the tweets and is this a new policy . Well, clearly, theres escalating tension between washington and tehran. What the administration believes the revolutionary government in iran is vulnerable and escalating the pressure economically, in terms of intelligence information campaign. Its gaming that the regime will be under such pressure it will have to go back to the Negotiating Table to talk, not just about the Nuclear Weapons program but also the wider array of issues we have with tehran, including human rights practices, its missile test, its meddling in the region, and the danger is that the iranians do not respond in a way that wads wa washington wants. The question becomes what else . Is this a repeat of the momentum that we felt in the runup to the war with iraq . The danger is that this is not north korea, this is not iraq. Change approach. Which you applaud . I do. I think its the correct way to go, particularly at this time. I do believe that the Islamic Republic is internally weak and makes sense to deprive them of our currency. Trita, im guessing you disagree. I disagree with the idea that the you tats is in a position and has the capacity to do a Regime Change in iran that would lead to a better government in iran, the iranian people certainly want to see democracy and are deeply frustrated with the current state of the country. But where is the last time, give me an example, of the United States doing a Regime Change in the middle east, that led to a proper democracy . I fear that the attempt at re g Regime Change i do agree with reuel, when you see everything thats happening, its not compatible with the strategy for diplomacy, but some form of attempt at Regime Change. It might be a worse scenario, Regime Collapse. They might not try to replates government, just collapse the current government and allow the chaos inside of iran enable the Balance Of Power in the regime to shift away from iran, which certainly would be to the benefit of saudi arabia and israel and would be to their preference. But would cause a lot of disorder in an already disorderly middle east . And tremendous amount of disorder in the country and set back the cause for democracy in iran at least one generation. Its difficult to to be able to see the u. S. s involvement, particularly the Trump Administrations involvement, leading to a better scenario for democracy in iran. Very quickly on this point, weve been pretty good at getting rid of bad regimes. Weve been very bad at putting in a good, that is democratic regime, if you think about iraq and all these examples where its been much harder to easy to get rid of a bad regime and much harder to bring democracy somewhere. You do have to have patience. Most striking about iraq, the democratic system in iraq, as flawed as it is, hasnt disappeared yet. The mistake there was that we pulled out. We should have stayed. For how long . We have to be patient. And, obviously, the americans have, i think, a short Attention Span for these things, and certainly in the middle east, which is very demanding. Do we really . Were still on the banks of iran, still in osaka and south korea, places where it makes sense because youre deterring an outside threat or anchoring the country. These are cases where youre trying to engage in a quasi colonial occupation, which is very difficult. Look into afghanistan. Is it better today than it was . I would argue that the intrusion of the United States into the Iraqi Government was less than probably what you had in germany after world war ii. You know, i would say that the more the United States is there, the better. Robin, let me ask you, the point at which there seems to be some agreement is that what were headed for is a kind of Regime Change like strategy. Press iran, probably economically, but not the United States is not going to go into syria, yemen, lebanon to push back against iran. What you end up with is trita right, Regime Collapse and a very messy kind of situation . One of the things that everyone in washington is concerned about is what happens even if you get to the point that the regime is confronted, is vulnerable, does begin to either collapse or deteriorate . And there is no identifiable Opposition Group that has emerged that is popular at home. And so one of the question is, who would replace the regime . This is a country that has 80 Million People. It borders not just the middle east but south asia, central asia. It is one of the most geostrategic properties in the world and has a good deal to say what happens on the strait of hormuz, through which a huge amount of the worlds exports flow. So those of us who live a long way away, it is important. Were still militarily stressed whether in afghanistan, iraq, south korea, germany, that we dont have the resources to rebuild a country like iraq, much less a place like syria, which will have to be reconstructed at some point. And the idea of Reconstructing Another War Zone is very daunting. So, whether its just the collapse of the regime because of its inefficiencies, the opposition within or some kind of military campaign, plan b, what happens next, is a very unclear and in some ways the most frightening aspect of this issue. When we come back, well ask, what is actually happening inside iran . Is the regime getting weaker or is all this pressure emboldening it . Hawaii is in the middle of the pacific ocean. Were the most isolated population on the planet. Hawaii is the first state in the u. S. To have 100 Renewable Energy goal. Were a very small electric utility. But, if we dont make this move were going to have changes in our environment, and have a negative impact to hawaiis economy. Verizon provided us a solution using Smart Sensors on their network that lets us collect near Real Time Data on our power grid. colton this technology is helping us integrate rooftop solar, which is a very important element of getting us to our Renewable Energy goals. shelee if we can create our own energy, we can take care of this beautiful place that i grew up in. The smoother the skin, the more comfortable you are in it. And now theres a new way to smooth. Introducing new venus platinum. A premium metal handle boosts control. To reveal up to 100 smooth skin. Venus uhp. I didnt believe it. Again. Ooh, baby, do you know what thats worth . I want to believe it. [ claps hands ] ooh im not hearing the confidence. Okay, hold the name your price tool. Power of options based on your budget and well make heaven a place on earth yeah oh, my angels ooh, heaven is a place on earth [ sobs quietly ] ooh, heaven is a place on earth jimmys gotten used to his whole yup, hes gone noseblind. Odors. He thinks it smells fine, but his mom smells this. Luckily for all your hardtowash fabrics. Theres febreze fabric refresher. Febreze doesnt just mask, it eliminates odors youve. Gone noseblind to. And try Febreze Unstopables for fabric. With up to twice the fresh scent power, youll want to try it. Again and again and maybe just one more time. Indulge in irresistible freshness. Febreze unstopables. Breathe happy. Against the regime, against all parts of the regime. They yell death to rouhani, as much as they do death to the supreme ruler. I think the society is fraying rather profoundly and its important to remember that iran has had over 100year quest of search for increasing representative government. It is unique, actually, in the middle east. And i think we should Pay Attention to that. And we should realize that though the Islamic Republic has brutalized Iranian Society as did the shah before it, you still have a very powerful, i would argue, current greater democratic expression. Trita . Without a doubt the desire for democracy is very strong. Theyre the ones who have been pushing to move the country in that direction. The question is, will any interference or efforts from the outside help or undermine it . Invariably in the 100year quest weve seen for intervention, its always set back the iranian peoples aspirations. The 1953 intervention to unseat the democratically elected Prime Minister is the prime example. The government itself so far, were not seeing any signs of panic. Certainly a tremendous amount of discontent and protests that look very different from with an we saw in 2009. This is coming from the smaller cities that have not reached tehran yet, a class that is usually seen as being supportive of the regime. If there are efforts from the outside to fuel protests. Robin, where do you come out on this . The United States pressure, does it help the Iranian Regime in a way that, for example, it helped the castro regime in cuba, because they can say they were battling the americans and american pressure, or is it, at the end of the day, pressure is pressure and it weakens the regime . Probably both. The biggest pressure on the Iranian Regime comes from within. The fact that the majority of the voters today were born after the revolution and this is one of the most connected societies. It has a very sophisticated polity. They are aware of what happens in the rest of the world. They dont want to be a pariah and dont want to see their currency halved as it has in the past year. They want to buy their western goods and dont want to be stuck with inferior chinese stuff. I do think were reaching a turning point. In august and again in november, u. S. Sanctions go in effect. First, not just on iranian goods but any company that does business from any country with iran. And so this will undermine even those countries that have stuck to the nuclear deal, the companies in those countries are going to feel pressure not to deal with iran, because then they cant sell their goods to the United States. You see big global companies, frances totale, germanys siemens. The pressure will mount. Will there be this confluence of factors that really undermine the regime . Just a year ago you saw almost 77 of the population in iran turn out for a president ial election, much higher than it was in the u. S. President ial election a year before that. There are still people willing to participate in a system a year ago. Whether the system can collapse quickly, i think, is a big question. I think one thing we could be sure is the pressure is mounting and this is going to be a story to watch. Thank you. Thank you very much. Next on gps, trumps tariff war and why it wont work. Back in a moment. Imers Associan Walk to end alzheimers, we carry flowers that signify why we want to end the disease. And we walk so that one day, there will be a white flower for alzheimers first survivor. Join the fight at alz. Org walk. I never thought id say this but i found Bladder Leak Underwear thats actually pretty. Always discreet boutique. Hidden inside is a super absorbent core that quickly turns liquid to gel. So i feel protected and pretty. Always discreet boutique. Wlets do it. . Come on. This summer, add a new member to the family. At the mercedesbenz summer event. Lease the glc300 for 429 a month at your local mercedesbenz dealer. Mercedesbenz. The best or nothing. Lets fly, lets fly away just say the words and well beat the birds down to acapulco bay its perfect for a flying honeymoon they say Come Fly With Me Lets fly, lets fly away Come Fly With Me Lets fly, lets fly away lean on me, when youre not strong and ill be your friend ill help you carry on lean on me. Well, esurance makes it simple and affordable. In fact, drivers who switched from geico to esurance saved an average of 412. Thats auto and Home Insurance for the modern world. Esurance. An allstate company. Click or call. Esurance. An allstate company. I love you, Basement Bathroom of solitude, but sometimes you stink. Febreze air effects doesnt just mask, it cleans away odors. Because the things you love can stink. Now for our What In The World segment. A lot has changed in American Politics over the last 30 years, but theres one thing you can always count on, republicans hating taxes. Read my lips. No new taxes. Tax increases destroy jobs. Weve made history by massively reducing jobkilli ii taxes. It turns out theres a certain jobkilling tax trump actually loves, tariffs. Tariffs are pretty much the same as taxes, which is why freemarket economists from Adamson Onward Have hated them. When trump puts a tariff on a foreign good, what he is doing is taxing that good, making it more expensive for americans. Take, for example, trumps tariffs on imported steel. Its true this would help americans who make steel, because their competitors products coming in from abroad would be more expensive. But there are only about 150,000 American Workers who make steel. That is dwarfed by the 6. 5 million americans who work in industries that buy and depend on cheap steel, writes douglas irwin, dartmouth economist of foreign affairs. Including everything from small tool manufacturers to large defense firms. Goldman sachs says General Motors and ford could each lose 1 billion this year because of the steel tariffs. The Trump Administration is looking into tariffs on another 200 billion worth of chinese goods and has threatened United States<\/a> as erratic, unpredictable, unreliable and fundamentally hostile to the global order. Leader after leader in europe has made this clear. George osbourne told me when he was britains finance minister, you knew the United States<\/a> president had your back. The most tangible data\rsuggesting that the United States<\/a> is losing its good reputation comes from The Economist<\/a> adam poser. He argues that countries are bypassing the United States<\/a> and constructing a postamerican world economy. You can see this in the flurry of Trade Agreements<\/a> that dont include the u. S. , from the transpacific partnership, which was signed minus america to the trade deal the European Union<\/a> just signed with japan and many others that are in the works. The most dramatic indication of the world side stepping the u. S. , he says, is the decline in Foreign Investment<\/a> in america. It has fallen off a chif, he to told me. Net Foreign Investment<\/a> into the u. S. Has dropped by half since 2016. Perhaps some of the decline is part of a longer term trend. Other countries are growing faster than the u. S. But for decades, that reality has been countered by another reality. That among the worlds rich nations, america was eunique in\rhaving strong Growth Prospects<\/a> coupled with stable, predictable, promarket policies. Trumps attacks on trade, allies, his willingness to punish and reward individual companies and general unreliability all add up to a picture of policymaking that looks like that of an erratic developing company run by a strong man. The difference is americas strong man has the power to disrupt the entire global economy. For more tog to cnn. Com fareed and read my Washington Column<\/a> this week. And now, lets get started. Is the war between the United States<\/a> and iran actually possible . The leaders of the two enemy nations have been threatening each other, since last weekend. It all began last sunday when irans president , hassan rouhani\rsaid the war between two nations would be the mother of all wars. President trump, of course, responded late that night with a tweet that said, in all caps, never, ever threaten the United States<\/a> again, or you will suffer consequences the like of which few throughout history have ever suffered before. Irans Foreign Minister<\/a> responded similarly, in all caps, color us unimpressed. And the leader of irans powerful force threatened thursday if trump began a war, it would be iran that ended it. Tough talk. Joining me now, robin wright, contributing writer at the new yorker and fellow at the Woodrow Wilson<\/a> center, and the author of losing an enemy, now Senior Fellow<\/a> at the foundation for the defense of democracies. Robin, what do you make of the\rtweets and is this a new policy . Well, clearly, theres escalating tension between washington and tehran. What the administration believes the revolutionary government in iran is vulnerable and escalating the pressure economically, in terms of intelligence information campaign. Its gaming that the regime will be under such pressure it will have to go back to the Negotiating Table<\/a> to talk, not just about the Nuclear Weapons<\/a> program but also the wider array of issues we have with tehran, including human rights practices, its missile test, its meddling in the region, and the danger is that the iranians do not respond in a way that wads wa washington wants. The question becomes what else . Is this a repeat of the momentum that we felt in the runup to the war with iraq . The danger is that this is not north korea, this is not iraq. Change approach. Which you applaud . I do. I think its the correct way to go, particularly at this time. I do believe that the Islamic Republic<\/a> is internally weak and makes sense to deprive them of our currency. Trita, im guessing you disagree. I disagree with the idea that the you tats is in a position and has the capacity to do a Regime Change<\/a> in iran that would lead to a better government in iran, the iranian people certainly want to see democracy and are deeply frustrated with the current state of the country. But where is the last time, give me an example, of the United States<\/a> doing a Regime Change<\/a> in the middle east, that led to a proper democracy . I fear that the attempt at re g Regime Change<\/a> i do agree with reuel, when you see everything thats happening, its not compatible with the strategy for diplomacy, but some form of attempt at Regime Change<\/a>. It might be a worse scenario, Regime Collapse<\/a>. They might not try to replates government, just collapse the current government and allow the chaos inside of iran enable the Balance Of Power<\/a> in the regime to shift away from iran, which certainly would be to the benefit of saudi arabia and israel and would be to their preference. But would cause a lot of disorder in an already disorderly middle east . And tremendous amount of disorder in the country and set back the cause for democracy in iran at least one generation. Its difficult to to be able to see the u. S. s involvement, particularly the Trump Administration<\/a>s involvement, leading to a better scenario for democracy in iran. Very quickly on this point, weve been pretty good at getting rid of bad regimes. Weve been very bad at putting in a good, that is democratic regime, if you think about iraq and all these examples where its been much harder to easy to get rid of a bad regime and much harder to bring democracy\rsomewhere. You do have to have patience. Most striking about iraq, the democratic system in iraq, as flawed as it is, hasnt disappeared yet. The mistake there was that we pulled out. We should have stayed. For how long . We have to be patient. And, obviously, the americans have, i think, a short Attention Span<\/a> for these things, and certainly in the middle east, which is very demanding. Do we really . Were still on the banks of iran, still in osaka and south korea, places where it makes sense because youre deterring an outside threat or anchoring the country. These are cases where youre trying to engage in a quasi colonial occupation, which is very difficult. Look into afghanistan. Is it better today than it was . I would argue that the intrusion of the United States<\/a> into the Iraqi Government<\/a> was less than probably what you had in germany after world war ii. You know, i would say that the more the United States<\/a> is there, the better. Robin, let me ask you, the point at which there seems to be some agreement is that what were headed for is a kind of Regime Change<\/a> like strategy. Press iran, probably economically, but not the United States<\/a> is not going to go into syria, yemen, lebanon to push back against iran. What you end up with is trita right, Regime Collapse<\/a> and a very messy kind of situation . One of the things that everyone in washington is concerned about is what happens even if you get to the point that the regime is confronted, is vulnerable, does begin to either collapse or deteriorate . And there is no identifiable Opposition Group<\/a> that has emerged that is popular at home. And so one of the question is, who would replace the regime . This is a country that has 80 Million People<\/a>. It borders not just the middle east but south asia, central\rasia. It is one of the most geostrategic properties in the world and has a good deal to say what happens on the strait of hormuz, through which a huge amount of the worlds exports flow. So those of us who live a long way away, it is important. Were still militarily stressed whether in afghanistan, iraq, south korea, germany, that we dont have the resources to rebuild a country like iraq, much less a place like syria, which will have to be reconstructed at some point. And the idea of Reconstructing Another War Zone<\/a> is very daunting. So, whether its just the collapse of the regime because of its inefficiencies, the opposition within or some kind of military campaign, plan b, what happens next, is a very unclear and in some ways the most frightening aspect of this issue. When we come back, well ask, what is actually happening inside iran . Is the regime getting weaker or\ris all this pressure emboldening it . Hawaii is in the middle of the pacific ocean. Were the most isolated population on the planet. Hawaii is the first state in the u. S. To have 100 Renewable Energy<\/a> goal. Were a very small electric utility. But, if we dont make this move were going to have changes in our environment, and have a negative impact to hawaiis economy. Verizon provided us a solution using Smart Sensors<\/a> on their network that lets us collect near Real Time Data<\/a> on our power grid. colton this technology is helping us integrate rooftop solar, which is a very important element of getting us to our Renewable Energy<\/a> goals. shelee if we can create our own energy, we can take care of this beautiful place that i grew up in. The smoother the skin, the more comfortable you are in it. And now theres a new way to smooth. Introducing new venus platinum. A premium metal handle boosts control. To reveal up to 100 smooth skin. Venus\ruhp. I didnt believe it. Again. Ooh, baby, do you know what thats worth . I want to believe it. [ claps hands ] ooh im not hearing the confidence. Okay, hold the name your price tool. Power of options based on your budget and well make heaven a place on earth yeah oh, my angels ooh, heaven is a place on earth [ sobs quietly ] ooh, heaven is a place on earth jimmys gotten used to his whole yup, hes gone noseblind. Odors. He thinks it smells fine, but his mom smells this. Luckily for all your hardtowash fabrics. Theres febreze fabric refresher. Febreze doesnt just mask, it eliminates odors youve. Gone noseblind to. And try Febreze Unstopables<\/a> for fabric. With up to twice the fresh scent power, youll want to try it. Again and again and maybe just one more time. Indulge in irresistible freshness. Febreze unstopables. Breathe happy. Against the regime, against all parts of the regime. They yell death to rouhani, as much as they do death to the supreme ruler. I think the society is fraying rather profoundly and its important to remember that iran has had over 100year quest of search for increasing representative government. It is unique, actually, in the middle east. And i think we should Pay Attention<\/a> to that. And we should realize that though the Islamic Republic<\/a> has brutalized Iranian Society<\/a> as did the shah before it, you still have a very powerful, i would argue, current greater democratic expression. Trita . Without a doubt the desire for democracy is very strong. Theyre the ones who have been pushing to move the country in that direction. The question is, will any\rinterference or efforts from the outside help or undermine it . Invariably in the 100year quest weve seen for intervention, its always set back the iranian peoples aspirations. The 1953 intervention to unseat the democratically elected Prime Minister<\/a> is the prime example. The government itself so far, were not seeing any signs of panic. Certainly a tremendous amount of discontent and protests that look very different from with an we saw in 2009. This is coming from the smaller cities that have not reached tehran yet, a class that is usually seen as being supportive of the regime. If there are efforts from the outside to fuel protests. Robin, where do you come out on this . The United States<\/a> pressure, does it help the Iranian Regime<\/a> in a\rway that, for example, it helped the castro regime in cuba, because they can say they were battling the americans and american pressure, or is it, at the end of the day, pressure is pressure and it weakens the regime . Probably both. The biggest pressure on the Iranian Regime<\/a> comes from within. The fact that the majority of the voters today were born after the revolution and this is one of the most connected societies. It has a very sophisticated polity. They are aware of what happens in the rest of the world. They dont want to be a pariah and dont want to see their currency halved as it has in the past year. They want to buy their western goods and dont want to be stuck with inferior chinese stuff. I do think were reaching a turning point. In august and again in november, u. S. Sanctions go in effect. First, not just on iranian goods\rbut any company that does business from any country with iran. And so this will undermine even those countries that have stuck to the nuclear deal, the companies in those countries are going to feel pressure not to deal with iran, because then they cant sell their goods to the United States<\/a>. You see big global companies, frances totale, germanys siemens. The pressure will mount. Will there be this confluence of factors that really undermine the regime . Just a year ago you saw almost 77 of the population in iran turn out for a president ial election, much higher than it was in the u. S. President ial election a year before that. There are still people willing to participate in a system a year ago. Whether the system can collapse quickly, i think, is a big question. I think one thing we could be sure is the pressure is mounting and this is going to be a story\rto watch. Thank you. Thank you very much. Next on gps, trumps tariff war and why it wont work. Back in a moment. Imers Associan Walk<\/a> to end alzheimers, we carry flowers that signify why we want to end the disease. And we walk so that one day, there will be a white flower for alzheimers first survivor. Join the fight at alz. Org walk. I never thought id say this but i found Bladder Leak Underwear<\/a> thats actually pretty. Always discreet boutique. Hidden inside is a super absorbent core that quickly turns liquid to gel. So i feel protected and pretty. Always discreet boutique. Wlets do it. . Come on. This summer, add a new member to the family. At the mercedesbenz summer event. Lease the glc300 for 429 a month at your local mercedesbenz dealer. Mercedesbenz. The best or nothing. Lets fly, lets fly away just say the words and well beat the birds down to acapulco bay its perfect for a flying honeymoon they say Come Fly With Me Lets<\/a> fly, lets fly away Come Fly With Me Lets<\/a> fly, lets fly away lean on me, when youre not strong and ill be your friend \r ill help you carry on lean on me. Well, esurance makes it simple and affordable. In fact, drivers who switched from geico to esurance saved an average of 412. Thats auto and Home Insurance<\/a> for the modern world. Esurance. An allstate company. Click or call. Esurance. An allstate company. I love you, Basement Bathroom<\/a> of solitude, but sometimes you stink. Febreze air effects doesnt just mask, it cleans away odors. Because the things you love can stink. Now for our What In The World<\/a> segment. A lot has changed in American Politics<\/a> over the last 30 years, but theres one thing you can always count on, republicans hating taxes. Read my lips. No new taxes. Tax increases destroy jobs. Weve made history by massively reducing jobkilli ii taxes. It turns out theres a certain jobkilling tax trump actually loves, tariffs. Tariffs are pretty much the same as taxes, which is why freemarket economists from Adamson Onward Have<\/a> hated them. When trump puts a tariff on a foreign good, what he is doing is taxing that good, making it more expensive for americans. Take, for example, trumps tariffs on imported steel. Its true this would help americans who make steel, because their competitors products coming in from abroad would be more expensive. But there are only about 150,000 American Workers<\/a> who make steel. That is dwarfed by the 6. 5 million americans who work in industries that buy and depend on cheap steel, writes douglas irwin, dartmouth economist of foreign affairs. Including everything from small tool manufacturers to large defense firms. Goldman sachs says General Motors<\/a> and ford could each lose 1 billion this year because of the steel tariffs. The Trump Administration<\/a> is looking into tariffs on another 200 billion worth of chinese goods and has threatened Automobile Tariffs<\/a> on allies. Creating 200,000 jobs, according to the Peterson Institute<\/a>. Listen to larry summers. This is the least wellconceived Economic Policy<\/a> that the United States<\/a> has pursued since the period before the great depression. So why even start these tariff wars . Dont blame the administration. Dont blame japan. Dont blame europe. Blame china. Well, china is a trade cheat that breaks the rules and bends others, as i have often said. These are problems. But trumps tariffs are not the answers. In mid june, the United States<\/a> announced tariffs on 50 billion worth of chinese imports. The overwhelming majority of them were on whats known as intermediate goods. In other words, parts for things Like Computers<\/a> or cars or on machines used to build them. Those are the kind of tariffs that will raise costs for manufacturers in the u. S. And the Peterson Institute<\/a> found that those same tariffs would primarily target multinational\rcompanies operating in china, many of which are american, not chinese companies. The chinese europeans and canadians have all retaliated and their tariffs are much smarter. They target final products that will affect americans directly. Kentucky bourbon, Harley Davdson<\/a> motor si motorcycles, all seen as potent National Symbols<\/a> and many are located in the republican heartland. Targeting them is designed to mobilize powerful republican legislators who have to answer to those voters. The best way to get china to reform its Trade Practices<\/a> is for the United States<\/a>, europe and other allies to work together. Instead, the United States<\/a> is forcing its allies into chinas arms and many republicans are standing on the sidelines, as donald trump overturns yet one more of the defining ideologies\rof conservative. Next on gps, pakistan elects a new leader. What can we expect from the former cricketer . I will talk to the experts when we come back. Its a hightech revolution in sleep. The new sleep number 360 smart bed. It intelligently senses your movement and automatically adjusts on each side to keep you both comfortable. And snoring . How smart is that . Smarter sleep. To help you lose your dad bod, train for that marathon, and wake up with the patience of a saint. The new sleep number 360 smart bed, from 999. Smarter sleep will change your life. Youre trying to lower your very hwith a healthy diet. And exercise. And maybe even, unproven fish oil supplements. Not all omega3s are clinically proven or the same. Discover prescription omega3 vascepa. The one thats this pure. And fda approved. Look. Vascepa looks different. Because it is different. Its pure epa. Vascepa, along with diet, is clinically proven to lower very high triglycerides by 33 in adults, without raising bad cholesterol. Thats pure power. Proven to work. 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Before starting harvoni your doctor will test to see if youve ever had hepatitis b which may flare up and cause serious Liver Problems<\/a> during and after harvoni treatment. Tell your doctor if youve ever had hepatitis b, a liver transplant, other liver or kidney problems, hiv or any other medical conditions and about all the medicines you take including herbal supplements. Taking amiodarone with harvoni can cause a serious slowing of your heart rate. Common side effects of harvoni include tiredness,\rheadache and weakness. Ready to let go of hep c . Ask your hep c specialist about harvoni. This is not a screensaver. Game. This is the destruction of a cancer cell by the bodys own immune system, thanks to medicine that didnt exist until now. And today can save your life. Thursday, imran khan claimed victory for pakistan, promising a new era for his nation. Plaguing pakistan for decades and showing no signs of abating. The former Cricket Player<\/a> turned politician has been strongly antiamerican and such sentiments in pakistan were exacerbated when trump when would hundreds of millions of Dollars Worth<\/a> of military aid earlier this year. What should we expect . Joining me now, pakistans former ambassador to the United States<\/a>, who joins us from rome, and laura miller was the United States<\/a> Special Acting Representative<\/a> to afghanistan and pakistan. Laura, let me start with you. Why did imran khan, a politician who, i dont know, five, seven years ago, as i recall, his party won one seat in parliament. Why did he win . Several factors contributed to his apparent election victory. The first one is that there is little doubt that the Pakistani Military<\/a> tilted the Playing Field<\/a> in his favor through pressure on the courts, through\rpressure on the media, indeed harassment of pakistani media and through intimidation of election candidates. Its also the case that imran khan has genuine popularity in pakistan. His party did quite well all across the nation. And he has worked very hard over the last two decades to move from the fringe of pakistani politics to the center of power in pakistan. And a third factor is, its not difficult to see why many in the pakistani electorate would want to vote for change. What does this mean for u. S. pakistani relations . He has been strident antiamerican. The Trump Administration<\/a> seemed to turn up the pressure on pakistan. Though it seemed a momentary spasm rather than a sustained policy. Whats going to happen . I think that imran khan will\rtry to reach out to the u. S. , which he did in his first statement as well because of pakistans massive problems. Theres no money. Pakistan needs every dollar and assistance that it can get. That said, i think its also very clear that the reason why the Pakistani Military<\/a> establishment supported khan was because they want status quo on Foreign Policy<\/a> and International Relations<\/a> while wanting to change the status quo at home. On one hand, they do want a civilian government that is less corrupt but they want a civilian government that is Morrow Beadiebea<\/a> more obedient to the military. I see no basis on which the United States<\/a> and pakistan will be able to bridge the divide that has emerged between them. I do realize that the two countries will have to interact with each other but i dont\rthink that interaction is going to lead us to anything different from what we have had in the past. Laurel, what do you think . The United States<\/a> and pakistan hasv had the same dance now since 9 11. The United States<\/a> has said were going to push you hard, because you are at the source of a lot of the terrorism coming out. You support these jihadis. You have supported them for decades. At the same time, the United States<\/a> needs pakistan to fight some of these forces and so it never quite cuts pakistan off. This has been the dance ever since colin powell went to musharaf right after 9 11. Youre right. Im not expecting to see any change in the near to medium term in u. S. pakistan relations, any breaking out of that dynamic you just described. The United States<\/a> is pursuing a policy and a strategy in afghanistan that makes the United States<\/a> dependent on some\rlevel of cooperation with pakistan. Theres no solution to the problems in afghanistan, no enduring stability in afghanistan without some degree of cooperation with pakistan. Husain, what does this mean for pakistan . So many of the countries are moving, in some way, look at malaysia, moving away from authoritarianism. In some cases the military is even more dominant. Where does this go . It has a very fixed notion of what pakistans interest is. Pakistan must see india as the eternal enemy. Pakistan must have a dominant role in afghanistan and pakistan must be the Center Of The Universe<\/a> as far as that region is concerned. That is an untenable situation\rwhen your literacy is low and quality of education does not create the human capital. I think if, as laurel says, that the dependence on pakistan if the United States<\/a> decides to pack up and leave pakistan, it leaves pakistan with no anchor and also its own domestic growth and Pakistani Military<\/a> is betting heavily on china, expecting them to bail pakistan out. Pakistanis alone can bail pakistan out and pakistanis need to think beyond the military as the countrys savior, but the military does not allow that to happen. Thank you both. Husain, as youve often written, pakistan has invested far more in its military over the last 70 years in its independence than it has on education and human development. I suppose that statistic says it all. Up next, if the rest of the\rshow has gotten you down, the next segment will make you happy. I guarantee it. Stay tuned. Lean on me, when youre not strong and ill be your friend ill help you carry on lean on me. A book that youre ready to share with the world . Get published now, call for your free publisher kit today this past january, a brand new class immediately became the most popular class in the history of the school. Psych 157, but everybody calls it the happiness course, quickly enrolling more than 1,200 students according to the yale daily news, so many students that class had to be held in a concert hall. Its popularity didnt end at yale. It soon became a viral sensation, featured in the new york times, the washington post, and many more. What is all the fuss . Professor lori sanders joins me now. Thanks so much for having me. Why did you decide to teach this class . The class came out of a different role i had at yale. I became one of their heads of college. Its kind of like hogwarts. I live on campus with the students, eat with them in the dining hall and hang out with them in the coffee shop. I saw them in the trenches in terms of what they were going through. As a Faculty Member<\/a> i was shocked at the Mental Health<\/a> issues i was seeing, frankly. This is the kind of thing that folks report not just at yale but a National Trend<\/a> thats getting worse. About 30 of students report being so depressed its difficult to function. Over 50 of College Students<\/a> report being anxious a lot of the time and over 80 say that they feel overwhelmed by all they have to do. This was not my college experience. Its not the kind of spot where were going to be educating\rstudents well if theyre this depressed and this anxious. Data suggests that over the years, people have been asking for more and more Mental Health<\/a> at colleges. Why do you think this is happening . I dont know. I think there are a number of Different Things<\/a> at work. My sense is that colleges are often prioritizing the kinds of things that science suggests arent very good for wellbeing. Overfocused on grades, future focused about what kind of job theyre going to get later, even at a place at yale where most of them are going to get good jobs. Those are not the kinds of things that promote wellbeing. It comes from being in the moment, social connection, counting your blessings and not worrying about the things in the future. When you talk about the social connections and social interaction and all the Research Suggests<\/a> actual physical social interaction is very useful in giving people a sense of wellbeing. It seems to me that particularly for younger generation, they live in a world of social media interactions more than social\rinteractions. Do you think that place a role . I think its no coincidence that these kinds of Mental Health<\/a> issues are coming up in this age where technology is pulling away the kind of normal social interaction we have. And thats true on social media, where i think people think theyre getting social connection out of scrolling their instagram feed but havent talked to a live person or made a real social connection. Its all kinds of other tech. We dont talk to our cab driver and explain where were going, because weve punched it into uber. We dont talk to the checkout clerk. We scan it on our own. Research suggests its those simple social connections, talking to the barista at the coffee shop or the person on the street, that can bump up wellbeing much more than we forecast. Experience of dating. You used to go to a bar, you meet someone, and now, of course, you look at an app. Thats correct. And evaluate somebody on very superficial criteria and you get evaluated and that cant be good\rfor your sense of self worth. Its also activating another thing we know from the research that can be problematic, which is our social comparison. Our mind is really good at picking out a Reference Point<\/a> of who we should compare ourselves to. What should our salary be, how good should we look . We compare ourselves, often in a bad way. And i think social media allows us for so much more kinds of comparisons that make us feel bad about ourselves on these different dimensions, attractiveness, wealth levels. For our College Students<\/a>, the grades theyre getting. They talk about getting good grades. Nobody talks about bad grades. Increasing the number of social comparisons that happen on a daily basis and thats not good for wellbeing. In the course, what do you try to give whats the message you try to give about what does lead to the good life, what does lead to happiness . The first part of the message is that the sad thing that the science tells us is that our minds lie to us all the time. We miswant things. Thats a hard thing to take. We think we need to change our Life Circumstances<\/a> to become happier, we need a new job, bigger salary or need to move. The Research Suggests<\/a> that our Life Circumstances<\/a> play really little role. Its not what we forecast but what the science shows. What plays a much bigger role is our simple practices, like making a social connection or taking time for gratitude or taking time to be in the present moment, having some time thats unscheduled. Whats interesting about what youre describing actually is its simpler than what we think. We think what will make us happy is making a lot more money or moving to a different place or having a different apartment or partner, whatever. But what youre saying is really if every day you, i dont know, follow some routines where you make sure that you meet with some friends, have some social interaction, do a little exercise, whatever your daytoday routine is, that can make you much happier. Thats easier to do compared to doubling your income . Exactly. I take the science of happiness\rof giving us a lot of good news. Its not the hard things you need to change. Its the simple things. The problem, as we know, as psychologists, even changing the simple things can be really hard. Thats why were only a few months from january 1st and everyone has forgotten about their new years resolutions. Thats why the second half of the class focuses on a different part of psychology. Thats the psychology of Behavior Change<\/a>. As scientists we learned a lot about how habits work, how you can make habits stick better. How can you shape your situation to pursue the goals you want to have in your life . Is there a simple rule, is there a simple answer to that . As you might guess, since Behavior Change<\/a> is hard its not super simple. One of the easy things to do is just do it. Find a way to force yourself to do it over time. We know that habits build up by just simply doing them over and over again. Another thing we know from science, is that social situation matters. You want to be around people who are supporting you, who give you some help in forming these habits. And that was one of the\rwonderful things about the course. We 1,200 students on yales campus, providing a tremendous amount of social support. People were asking other students, what did you write for your Gratitude List<\/a> today, what did you do for time athletics . It was powerful knowing that the whole community was doing this at the same time. Laurie santos, pleasure to have you on. Thank you so much. Well be right back. At the Alzheimers Association<\/a> walk to end alzheimers, we carry flowers that signify why we want to end the disease. And we walk so that one day, there will be a white flower for alzheimers first survivor. Join the fight at alz. Org walk. Were in a small room. What . welcome. [ gasps ] a bigger room . how many of you use Car Insurance<\/a> . Oh. Well, what if i showed you this . [ laughing ] hohoho wow. Its a computer. We compare rates to help you get the price and coverage thats right for you. Thats amazing the only thing that would make this better is if my mom were here. What . an unexpected ending is it to carry cargo. Greatness of an suv . Is if my mom were here. Or to carry on a legacy . Its show of strength. Or its sign of intelligence . In crossing harsh terrain. Or breaking new ground . This is the time to get an exceptional offer on the mercedes of your midsummer dreams at the mercedesbenz summer event, going on now. Receive up to a 1,250 summer event bonus on select suvs. Mercedesbenz. The best or nothing. In its senate and lower house of congress . Rwanda, south africa, france or mexico . Stay tuned and well tell you the correct answer. My book of the week is the China Mission<\/a> by daniel kurtz. Engulfing the most admired man in america at the time, general george marshall. The portrait of marshall sent on a mission to china is, by itself, worth the price of the book. So impressive, he refused to write his memoirs, because he thought that would be improperly profiting from Government Service<\/a> that he stands like an Ancient Roman<\/a> statue in todays washington. The answer to my Gps Challenge<\/a> this week is d, mexico. When the newly elected mexican\rcongress takes power in september, women are projected to make up almost 50 of both the senate and the lower house. Overall, this means the country will have the fourth highest percentage of women in a lower or single house of parliament, according to the u. N. 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