New cold war . The chinese virus. The chinese virus. Theres nothing positive about what happened in china. Tony blair, the former british Prime Minister will tell me what he thinks. And what of economics . How long will a genuine recovery take . What will the new economy look like . Ill ask the former u. S. Treasury secretary, larry summers. How about technology . Will Technology Save us or are we in for an orwelian world of cyberwatching and tracking. I will talk to eric schmidt. What will happen to the worlds cities, the crowded cafes and packed subways that were once a sign of vitality, are they history . Ill get answers from new york citys former transportation commissioner, janette sadikkhan. And what about travel . Boats, planes, hotels. Will covid19 change our very desire to encounter the foreign, the unknown . James fallows, the writer and pilot will tell us. Schools, will they be back to normal . Is Online Education good enough or is it actually even better . I will talk to michael crow, the president of Arizona State university and a pioneer of Online Education. Finally life as we know it, can we live life as less social creatures . Will we greet each other with a bow instead of a handshake or a hug . What is all of this doing to our brains . Arianna huffington has been thinking about it all. All that and more. And we will close with my usual take, all in this special hour. So, lets get started. So what will post covid 19 politics look like . Joining me now is former british Prime Minister, tony blair. Welcome, tony. Thank you, fareed. Youve written a great deal and talked about the rise of populism and how we entered a world of not left versus right but open versus closed. So what does this pandemic do to that debate . It certainly seems as though a lot of people are saying lets close down because if were open, we get infected. Yes. There will be a lot of people saying that, but on the other hand youve got to think of how important it is, first of all, that we deal with this pandemic together, and this is not about the trying to do your best for other countries, its trying to do your best for your own country. If you look at what the new world will look like as you emerge from covid, well be living with the disease for sometime. A vaccine on the best analysis could be nine months away. Maybe even more. So absent a therapeutic that reduces radically the severity of the disease, well be living with it. Every country will be in the same position. So every country will have to be building their infrastructure of containment to make sure that we can, for example, test people properly, and trace and track people so that we keep the disease under control. Were far better doing these things together. The reflation of our own econ y economies is obviously going to work better if theres global concerted action around the economy. I understand some people will say, look, this is all the result of interconnected supply chains, people becoming too dependent on each other. We shouldnt forget the enormal mouse benefits globalization gave us and we will handle this better if we do this together. The fuel of populism has been this antielite, antiexpert feeling it was vividly symbolized in brighten during the Brexit Campaign when michael gove said we in britain have had enough of experts. I wonder is there now some rethinking of this, you think, that people realize in a pandemic its quite useful to have experts . You would hope so. I think the interesting thing about the political landscape, you know, after the immediate covid crisis receded is that all the things that were there before will be back, but much more intense and more vivid. So, for example, i think there will be, you know, as people come out and they start to try and return to what will be a new normal, by the way, its not going to be the old normality at all, but as they go to this new normal, theyre going to look at the landscape and think how different it is. And in this new world you need government that is going to be effective, its going to be basing itself on what actually works. Its going to be, for example, accepting that Technology Gives us the means to transform a lot of the things that we do and do it better. So, i think there will be all of the competition that was there precovid will be there postcovid but much, much clearer, and probably in a much more intense form. What do you think is the future of the European Union . For the first time, you know, borders have been reimposed in the socalled shangun zone, when italy asked for help from former European Union members, nobody helped. Is there a danger that this is exposes a kind of fissure that could widen . Its possible, though, i have to tell you that ever since ive been out of university and engaged in politics, people have always talked about the European Union collapsing and it never has. But, you see, the thing of that is really exposed is the European Union, despite what some of the people who argue for breaking it up say, it is ultimately a collection of sovereign nation states. In this crisis nation states have been looking after themselves and in their own borders. But theres certain things upwiu europe will have to do together to get through this crisis well. So i think again for europe, there are certain longstanding reforms both at the european level and at the National Level that this crisis will have exposed now as not just necessary but urgent. Could the most lasting dangerous consequence of covid in a postcovid world be a cold war between the United States and china . You see how the tensions have risen and how this could easily spill over and persist. Look, theres the relationship between the u. S. And china particularly, but lets say more generally the west and china is the determining geopolitical relationship of the 21st century. And theres no doubt at all there are serious questions for china to answer about how the disease began, and there are perfectly natural anxieties about the power of china and how it may be used in the future. Heres one big difference between the cold war, with the soviet union and today with china. At the end of the cold war i think america was importing Something Like 2 200 million worth of goods from the soviet union. American imports from china 2018 were north of 5 500 billion. So, theres an interconnectedness economically and in trade terms that wasnt there in the cold war. And if you think of the big issues that we face today, whether its on the economy or on issues like climate or, indeed, dealing with this Global Pandemic, how do you deal with it unless you have some space for cooperation with china. So in my view the question for europe will be does it attempt to play a role in which it makes sure that its with the United States when china does need to be confronted but it is per s s persuasive with the United States when china needs cooperating with. Thank you to tony blair. Now lets go from politics to economics. Just will the new postcovid19 economy look like . Joining me is larry summers, the 71st secretary of the treasury and a former president of harvard university. Larry, what do you think is the main outline of the the economy as it comes out of what has been an unprecedented kind of paralysis, coma, call it what you will. What will we see on the other side . Fareed, i think theres three stages. Well see probably for the next month or two continued decline. Well see many, many more people out of work. Probably twice the excess unemployment, maybe three times the excess unemployment that we saw during the financial crisis. Then relatively rapid recovery from dismal to terrible, gradual recovery from terrible to normal, and then a somewhat differently structured economy where many more people are going to be working at home. Theres going to be much more online commerce, and much less much less traditional retail. Well see a world where i suspect this will be a bit of a blow to the gig economy, and were probably going to see some bringing home of production to the United States and some reduction in the amount were exporting as globalization recedes. Governments already are spending extraordinary amounts of money. The Treasury Department is going to borrow 3 trillion this month. Is there a limit . What is a world look like that is as laden with debt or is that something that we shouldnt worry about because certainly debt levels for most governments will go up to a scale nobody has seen before. Fareed, we cant sustain the level of spending that were engaged in this summer in relief. We have a 30 of gdp deficit, thats more than we had during most of world war ii. But a lot of that is really extraordinary postcovid expenditure. I think that there are two lessons of this. One, the optimistic and easier lesson is that were likely to be in an era of very low Interest Rates for a very long time to come. The thats what the market is saying. And with very low Interest Rates we can carry larger debts than we could have historically and 1 Interest Rates are just as historically odd as the debt levels that were dealing with. Thats one part of the answer. The second part of the answer is that a nation cant stay great on a shoestring. And were collecting 17 of gdp in taxes at the level of the federal government. And thats not enough. And so over time not in the midst of this kind of crisis, not when people are hurting so badly, not when unemployment is so high, but when we recover were going to have to have higher taxes in the United States, like we did in the 1960s and 1970s, and like most of the other countries in the world do. Fortunately we can generate significant revenue, maybe not enough, from the very rich. Thats certainly where any tax increasing should start. What about for the rest of the world . I dont mean the germanys or the japans that again can borrow pretty much at will. But theres so many countries that are poor, that cannot print money. What happens to them . This is one of the biggest abdications of responsibility of the trump administration. After the financial great financial crisis started, there was a historically important g20 meeting, directed at making sure the World Economy continued to function. We have nothing like that kind of international leadership. Well need a combination of more lending and official financial flows to the world, to emerging markets, were certainly going to need substantial debt restructuring for emerging markets, otherwise theyre not going to have any policy space and theyre going to have depressions that could make our problems look very small. And ultimately its one world. If all the emerging markets becomensubmerging markets for a decade or generation that will do devastating damage biologically in terms of the disease and economically to the markets and our country. My thanks to larry summers. Now on to technology. Many countries are looking to cell phone apps to track the spread of covid19. Here in the states apple and google are working jointly behind the technology on such tracking, privacy advocates are watching it closely. Joining me to talk about all that and the future of technology is eric schmidt, former ceo and executive chairman of google. Eric and i have been Close Friends for decades, and im a senior adviser, unpaid, to s schmidt futures. Welcome, eric. Thank you. Good morning, fareed. So when you look at covid before we get to postcovid, when you look at covid, you said to me at once at some level this is a kind of information problem. What do you mean by that . The problem here is we have a silent killer we cant see. And the majority of transmission appears to be asymptomatic. Many people are giving the disease to others without having any symptoms at all. So how can you possibly trust the person next to you unless theyre a Family Member or somebody you know very well without that ability to trust it will be extremely difficult to go to any gatherings or even Start College again. Nursing homes are a problem. All the places where people work closely together are a problem for this reason. What i think we need is to view this as an information problem and come up with estimates for where the disease is. When we can find hot spots, put them out. So one of the things that people are wondering is we have not had the worlds best governmental response here, but the United States has the worlds best Information Technology companies. Is there something that Information Technology allows us to do that will allow us to take that information that youre talking about, who is sick, where, you know, is there some way to process this information well . If you look at what south korea does when you get an infection, they take you and they take your phone, and they look at everything you have done, your banking records, where youve been and they label you and they tell people youre a problem. This has worked brutally to sustain the problem there. In america, its unlikely that were going to be willing to adopt the extreme measures that Asian Countries have been doing, which have suppressed the virus. And testing without Contact Tracing is not very useful. The google apple collaboration preserves your privacy but its completely voluntary. Many people will have to use those applications in order for them to work effectively. I think we need to look at this as an information problem, as an information problem what we need do is collect as much information as we can and try to identify the hot spots and go to where they are. Most of the diseases spread by hot spots which erupt. People will have a 15yearold girl at a party where they celebrate, they all get close together and everyone gets infected. Choirs that are singing. People working in meat packing plants. All of those are hot spots that then move quickly. If we can stop that spread, we can really slow down the virus. So lets step back. The one thing we can all see is that this has accelerated Digital Technology and it accelerated the digital economy. Tell us, you know, this is the kind of thing youve been predicting for a long time. What is the economy going to look like at the end of this, in a year or two years . How much how much of it will go digital . Well, we know some things already. We know that people are going to do many, many things digitally that they didnt before. The most obvious one is in telehealth. 80 of the health care in the United States is now being delivered by telehealth. Partly because they changed the reimbursement so you can actually get paid for it. People prefer it because its more convenient to talk to the doctor virtually and not drive to the doctors office. Obviously at some point, you have to see the doctor physically and have an operation, what have you. Thats an example where digital is both good for your health, its good for the economics, and it makes everything more efficient and it is clearly safer. There will be other such examples. It seems to me that the biggest changes will be in the daily life and say, for example, retail. Youll see more and more automatic checkout. Youll see changes in the way the buildings are organized. The buildings will be much more contactless or touchless surfaces. The hvac in buildings will be changed. Theres all sorts of ways in which well adapt to the presence of this virus, which is apparently not going away any time soon. The biggest one is probably in health care. One feature of the internet that you talked about, larry page and other leaders of the internet, was that it was going do be borderless. It was going to bring the world together. Covid made countries more nationalistic. The what does it bode for the future of the internet if countries are drawing in this way and viewing each other suspiciously . Can you imagine the pandemic now without the internet that we use every day in every way . The internet went from being interesting and then optional and now its really fundamental to our lives. This means that it will have nationalism problems, because countries will try to regulate it and prevent things they dont like. And people will have Higher Expectations for things like information and misinformation and that sort of thing. Most of the changes are good. Ones i worry about have to do with the pressures to censor the internet because the country doesnt like the political content. Its easy. You see that already in klein where th china where they have a firewall, they dont allow contact they dont like. Theres evidence that theres more deaths in china were claimed publicly. Societies cant function without a broad understanding of the truth and the internet can be a truth provider. Thank you to eric schmidt. We have a lot more to come on this special edition of gps. We will look at the future of cities, travel, education and life itself. All that when we come back. When the world gets complicated, a lot goes through your mind. With fidelity wealth management, your dedicated adviser can give you straightforward advice and tailored recommendations. Thats the clarity you get with fidelity wealth management. Hey thats mine. Ill buy you a pony. Advanced hydration isnt just for kids. Pedialyte helps you hydrate during recovery. Theyre going to be paying for this for a long time. 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