Friday the 13th with us. President trump teases his big announcement on the Iran Nuclear Deal. In a little while i will be giving a speech on iran. A terrorist nation like few others and i think you will find it very interesting. That will come hours after the president delivered another blow to obamacare, cutting subsidies to insurers. Democrats call it sabotage. He calls it a promise kept. These are massive bail outs to Insurance Companies. Lawsuits . There may be lawsuits, but they are not going to win. A long time republican senator and trump critic makes a big decision about her political future. I want to continue to play a key role in advancing policies that strengthen our nation. As a candidate, donald trump repeatedly pledged to dismantle two things president obama considered his signature achievements. Obamacare and the Iran Nuclear Deal. Today President Trump is taking steps to fulfill those promises. Later this hour, the president will announce a new strategy on iran and he is using his executive power to unravel president obamas Affordable Care act. We will have more on that with the panel in a moment. I want to start with cnns chief National Security correspondent and jim, we talked about this on the program. We talked about this behind the scenes here. The president plans to decertify that iran is complying with the nuclear deal. He is not scrapping the deal. Its a significant difference. Explain how this was put together. A significant difference for now. Its a punt, but to torture the metaphor, the ball is uns bouncing around on the field. He decertifies it and punts to congress. Congress has the power to reimpose sanctions on iran. Its not clear that thats what they are going to do. That there are the votes for that. What they are asking to do short of that is to set new trigger points into the agreement where for instance if iran doesnt comply with restrictions, those would be the trigger points and congress or the u. S. Would in effects reimpose sanctions or impose new sanctions on iran. The trouble is to do that and pass legislation to a pose trigger points, that requires 60 votes in the senate. You would need eight democrats to get on board. Thats something that is not clear that would happen. At which point if congress doesnt deliver on the pathway that the president is asking them to do so, the president could then tear up the deal as he is promised here. This is a punt, but its a punt with consequences and unclear now how this ends up. Today the iran deal is not being torn up at a later date. If congress doesnt act as he is demanding they do, thats a real possibility. Thank you for that reporting and here at the table to share their insights and reporting, michael shear of the new york times. Julie pace and perry bacon with an excellent tie. The federalist mary katherine. Im not saying your tie is not cool too. Lets pick up where he left off. The notion that this is certainly a big deal that he, the president will say he is not going to certify that iran is complying with the tenets of the nuclear agreement. I want to show you something that Aaron David Miller who is an expert on the mideast tweeted. To paraphrase seinfeld, he probably gets money for that, new iran policy is show and nothing. Dessert will leave deal intact and more talk than action against iran in the region. He has a point. He does. If you take his point and jims point which is that the president is taking a step created by congress under the obama administration. You have a lot of allies and other partners in the deal who worry that he is putting the u. S. On a slippery slope. What we have seen is pressure on the administration from overseas and internal adviser who is want the president to stay in the deal. They think its not a great deal, but its the deal we have. They will say we are taking tougher action and going after iran on all the things that are not a party to the nuclear deal. Financing the terrorist groups and also looking at the u. S. To stay where they are. What could go wrong . About what the president is going to announce, this is the pathway that provides us with the best platform to attempt to fix this deal. Is that Wishful Thinking . I think partly because the thing with the iran deal is a global agreement between a bunch of nations. The idea was that yes, there would be ways for countries to make an assessment that iran was not living up to the agreement, but it would be done in concert with these other countries. If iran was not living up to the deal and there would be a consensus that that was the case and action would be taken together. What was not contemplated was this idea that one country and especially the United States would decide on a win that is not working and the rest of the world was going to disagree. Thats where the end game is so uncertain. Whether congress does it or trump does it, what happens after that . The rest of the world indicated they are not going to be in the same place. On that note, another thing that tillerson said to reporters, he said on the question of whether allies and those who have signed the sig tories can trust the United States again, his response was i think they can trust. We will never do a deal this weak again. We will do a deal, but its going to be a deal that meets the needs of what we see as preventing nuclear proliferation. It wasnt contemplated. It should have been contemplated. While this was being enacted, there was not exactly small problems with it. That was the reason it didnt go through congress. Chuck schumer didnt support it. It was to assume everything would go fine and they would adopt this agreement to be exelected. He could have ripped it up on day one if he wanted to. He has not and that signals that he probably does not want to. Kicking it to congress, im not sure how that goes, but they have not been super successful. Because of this past problem with this deal being too soft on iran, i wonder if there is a possibility and i dont know in the era of trump how that plays out. There is bipartisan disgust with iran. Never mind the notion of them getting a Nuclear Weapon or capability, but also about the fact that the state sponsors of terrorism and they have this Ballistic Missile program that they are pushing and those are the kinds of things that the Trump Administration and many people in congress on both sides of the aisle want to make a much more holistic strat skree and thats what we will hear from the president today. We will see democrats disagreeing with that. Its true and its odd that we announce that the president is deferring to congress. All this build up and the big speech that he is not really going to do anything or take big action. It seems like he doesnt want to certify the deal. He doesnt top the do that a third time and we look to the president to make the decision and hes not willing to do that in this case. Because of the law that Congress Passed requires a president to certify every 90 days. He did it holding his nose with his congresses behind his back. He did it. This time he said no, lets come up with his advisers come up with a broader policy. Talking about congress, its not bipartisan yet, but senator bob corker who has been in the news a lot and the chair and tom cotton who is one of the most conservative and hawkish in the caucus do have proposed legislation. They call it fixing the iran deal. Among the things it would try to do is effectively end the sunset which is a big problem. You see for a lot of conservatives. Heres the key thing. Automatic snap back of sanctions should iran go under a oneyear break out period and move closer to a Nuclear Weapon. The sanctions are the key area that congress has been playing with. As part of the deal in addition to the sanctions, they are talking about bolstering the verification and eliminating the program as some of the things that many people thought were problematic with the deal. In keeping to what congress can do. Sanctions is e imposing and the thing that would kill the nuclear deal. Certification and decertification is a technical term. Just to go back in time, part of the deal was iran agreed to this limited Nuclear Capability as long as the u. S. And other countries stopped sanctioning the country. Exactly. The act of the u. S. Reimposing is something a lot of people were worried it would do at this phase of the game. He is putting this on congress and you will have support, bipartisan support for the idea of coming up with a window. A specific window and a timeline for the Iranian Nuclear program and we see this progress and we see it there within the oneyear break out point and we will reimpose sanctions and that would completely undermine the deal. How iran would react to that and how europeans would react to that. They are going into iran and making deals that are putting money on the ground there. How they would react is uncertain. This reality check about congress, lets remind people what they have on their plate. The budget and tax reform, daca, dealing with the dreamers. Obamacare and this iran deal. There is probably a reason why all of those so far have incomplete grades. For sure. This is up in the air. The thing that critics including democrats had an issue with the iran deal is it made the break out period incomplete and sanctioned by us. Thats what people were upset about. A snap back and response to that make perfect sense and make it simpler by congress. Thats something that could have gotten democratic support in the past. We shall see in the future. Fascinating. We have a lot more to talk about including the president ending what he calls bail outs for Insurance Companies and it may affect the very people who voted for him. These make cleaning between myi love easy. Sy. Gum brand for healthy gums. Soft picks, proxabrush cleaners, flossers. Gum brand. Republicans in congress may have failed to repeal obamacare, but the president is using his pen and executive power to make signifi cant changes. President trump will immediately stop paying a key set of obamacare subsidies to insurers. They were created to help nearly 6 million lower income americans to be able to afford coverage and cost the government nearly 7 billion this year alone and this makes a huge difference in out of pocket costs for those folks. For example, on a traditional silver plan, for those who are just above the poverty line, the subsidy lowers the average deductible to 225 a year. Without it, it is 3600 a year. You can see the big difference it makes. The president touched on this earlier today when he spoke at the value voters summit. You saw what we did with respect to health care. Its step by step by step. We are taking a little different route than we hoped because getting congress, they forgot what their pledges were. We are going a little different route, but you know what, in the end its going to be just as effective and maybe better. One of our colleagues said elections have consequences day. This is a perfect why of why. This is another example of the weakness of the pen and phone president ing by obama. These subsidies were never created by congress. Thats the problem. When the house sued, they went to a federal judge and said yeah, these have to be authorized by congress. You cant just give 7 billion to Insurance Companies to cover up the cost of these plans. It was done by executive order to begin with. On a constitutional level you have to figure out a different way to do it if you are going do the backdoor payments. You should do it by letter of the law. How does it affect people . It goes to the Insurance Companies and not to the folks and laws require the Insurance Companies to work on some of these cost sharing prices themselves. They are not going to be doing it with taxpayer money. It is an open question what that looks like. You are right, but in the meantime knowing the way congress is working or not working on this, lets look at another fact about how this impacts real people. We are talking about individuals earning less than 30,000 a year. Family of four earning less than 61,000 a year. The subsidies are not clear that costs will go up. Have you met an Insurance Company some they dont suck up the cost. They will subsidize this. This is part of the law. If you look at what happened the last seven or eight months from stopping limited inrollment to not encouraging the law to criticizing it in public. We are looking at three years from now, we may have Obamacare Repeal in some ways done with the executive branch. Thats what tom price is doing. Trump campaign, i think he said what he is doing. We couldnt do the repeal through congress, but we will change the law in the way we think it should happen in the executive branch. I want you to weigh in on this as well. This is a specific subsidy to Insurance Companies and we are not talking about medicare expansion that really helps a bigger swath of people. The president was also consistent on not hurting working people and people who need it the most. Listen to what he told me about a month into his campaign in july of 2015. People have no money, i want to try to help those people. I dont think there is anything wrong with that. You have to help the people. Can you imagine you have no money and you get sick like somebody else. You have noplace to go . You know what, if i lose votes over that or dont get a nomination over that, thats fine with me. It would be government assistance. You have to help people. What do they do . They are sick and they are supposed to sit in their homes and just die . Look, i think that its just so striking to see that and contrast with what the president has been doing as perry described it step by step. There is two things to think about. While there are technical reasons to think that the Insurance Companies are not going to be able to simply take away the subsidies to some of these people because the law requires them. They can and have already raised premium prices to cover the fact that they are going to have to suck up the 7 billion that they are now going to have to eat during 2018. The other thing we should talk about is the politics of this. The president was interesting when he talked today about how well congress has not done. They forgot their promises. Do you know who he is talking about . He is talking about republicans and not democrats. Republicans who said they were going to repeal obamacare. 2018 is just around the corner. Hes setting up a dynamic where he is chipping away at the law and not putting anything else in place. What are these republicans going to run on when they face their constituent who is have seen premium increases or coverage losses . Some republicans are actually feeling like trump is putting them in a position to save obamacare or the outlines of obamacare. If he create this is gap where he is taking things away and there is no solution being put on the table, they are the ones who have to work within the confines of the system and they realize congress is in a rough spot to do a broad repeal. Thats uncomfortable heading into a midterm. And democrats are pounding. I want to read you the tweets. Chuck schumer said it is a spiteful act of pointless sabotage levelled at working families and the middle class in every corner of america. Bob casey got the sabotage memo saying Congress Must work to reverse this sabotage if donald trump is unwilling to follow the law. Congress must force him to. After this sabotage, republicans own the price of health care totally. If they want to lower cost, legislative fix is rate for a vote. Retiring republican congressman charlie dent who many feel able to say whatever they want, they kind of agreed with the idea that its trumps problem now. And republicans. Take a listen. We at the end of the day will own this. We at the Republican Party will own this. I believe that is different from what we have heard from republicans. They said this is on obama. Trump himself said it. You say now republicans own this . Well, barack obama is a former president. President trump is the president. Hes a republican and we control the congress. So we own the system now. So we are going to have to figure out a way to stabilize this situation. Barack obama is no longer in the equation. This is on us. Hes not wrong. I think trump would hint and say if this market is not working, this market was not working when i came in and its not working more now that will inspire congress to pass a bill along that lines. It may not work. Yesterdays executive order is not that everyones cost will go up or down. If you are young and healthy, yesterdays executive order may reduce your cost, but it may be harder to get insurance than before. They were redistributing money and income. Its not like it hurrs or helps. Trump is aimed in a lot of ways. Obamacare was focused with the design to push money towards low income people with a lot of rules. This idea may if you are in upper middle class may reduce your cost zone and the cost sharing is changing in a lot of ways. Stand by. Go ahead. Give me your final thought. A lot of this stuff with the subsidies was not allowed. He was following along that front. He will face the weaknesses of the phone and the pen president ing with the executive order stuff that can cut down on mandates and offer more choice to people who could get less expensive and less overhead and attract more people to the market and make a difference and it could be wiped out by the next president. True. 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