Inside politics, the biggest stories sourced by the best reporters now. Welcome to inside politics. Im john king. To our viewers in the United States and around the world, thank you for sharing your sunday. A lot to talk about this sunday, including a big democratic president ial debate thursday. One important question for the candidates is whether they see the conservative route in the uk elections as a warning that working class voters are not buying what liberals are selling. First a cross roads moment in american politics. The Democratic House this week will vote on two articles of impeachment against the republican president. And every indication is that those articles will pass. President trump, of course, does not welcome to stain of impeachment, but he is confident he will not be convicted and removed by the senate, so his energy is aimed at preserving republican loyalty and at trying to turn a 2019 rebuke into a 2020 rallying cry. I watched these democrats on the commit make fools out of themselves. Absolute fools out of themselves. I think that the whole impeachment thing, hoax, i guess you could call it because it is a hoax, and nancy pelosi knows it, so its a very sad thing for our country. But it seems to be very good for me politically. Now, democrats say this is no hoax and they argue the case is overwhelming, that the president abused his power by pressuring u crepe to announce investigation into the bidens and he is obstructing congress by ignoring subpoenas for documents and witnesses central to the ukraine events. The president committed the highest crime against the constitution by abusing his office. Come on, get real, be serious. We know exactly what happened here. 17 witnesses. Its uncontradicted. Theres no rival story. We have an emergency to our National Election going on right now. Our oath to the constitution requires us to take this drastic, solemn and regrettable step, but it is necessary. With us this sunday to share their reporting and their insights, jeweulie davis with new york times, Michael Bender with the wall street journal, manu raju and monica lopez. Lets start with a viewers guide as to what to look for. We expect the house to vote on wednesday. The outcome not really in doubt. They have the votes to pass the articles of impeachment. There are 31 House Democrats from districts carried by President Trump, 31 who have to think once or twice about their own political future as they cast their vote. 16 democrats, we can show you on the screen, won in districts that the president carried by four points or more, so these are stronger pump districts. One of them you see in the bottom right, representative jeff drew. As we have this conversation this morning, manu, he is a democrat but he met with the president on sffriday, hes talking about switching parties and hes already announced he will vote no on both articles of impeachment. Republicans are casting this as a show of courage by a democrat leaving his party because of this misguided impeachment. The facts really are he was probably about to lose the democratic prime and hes trying to find a way to personally survive. Hes under water and he will have a difficult chance. A lot of this is personal political survival for jeff drew, who has been opposed to impeachment from the start and he was only one of two democrats to vote against moving forward with a formal impeachment proceedings when they had the procedural vote in the fall. So it was no surprise that he would take this position. But after he cast that vote, he got a significant amount of backlash from democrats in his district. He was in a difficult position. Im told that hes been making phone calls to various members in the delegation. It sounds like he is going to switch. Youre right, the president is going to cast this as a significant victory for him, but in reality this is all about one members own political circle. And if we can put up the 16. There are 31 trump district democrats, 16 from districts the president carried somewhat comfortably, four points or more. The challenge is Speaker Pelosi has said shes not going to whip this vote. But she also understands the Public Relations effort the president will make now. Jeff van drew. Does it increase the pressure on the leadership and other democrats to prove that democrats are not running away from this, that a few democrats, a few democrats just like in the clinton days, are going to go against the party, but . Honestly, pelosi was already counting on van drew was someone who was going to vote against impeachment. She expects a handful to vote against impeachment. So the count for democrats really isnt expected to change very much. Also, i do think that its worth noting that the democrats clearly expect the president to take any defections and run with them, whether or not we knew in advance, as both of you guys pointed out, we did know that he was going to be a no on these articles. But the president is going to try to make hay and use it as a distraction, he does not want to be an poichimpeached president. And anything he can do to shift the focus from himself to people who disagree with this decision, he is going to try to do. That doesnt make the decision any easier for the democrats. They have the articles in front of them and a really difficult political situation at home. Once more to make the point, Jeff Van Drew was already a no. We do know from our reporting over the weekend, our reporting is that the senator from iowa will note yes. Max rose from new york, again, a very tough district for him, will vote yes. We expect most of these democrats will come around. To the point, you heard the president in the beginning. This is good for me politically. The president of the United States is about to be impeached. That will forever be in the top two or three paragraphs about his legacy, as it is for bill clinton. This is rare in history. I get you want to spin it as favorably as you can, but this has to sting a president. Absolutely, and this is sort of the narrative we know about President Trump is that hes more tactical than strategic. He is concerned about the larger legacy questions, but he spends most of his time reacting in moment to moment and day to day. And moment to moment and day to day is that van drew is a good talking point. This has been a messaging war for trump from the very beginning. Were going to have an Impeachment Vote on wednesday without having heard from any senior white house officials on the questions at hand and the president hasnt paid any political hasnt paid any hasnt taken any political hits for this. The numbers have stayed the same generally on impeachment and generally on his approval. What hes talking about this being good for him politically is the fundraising has shot up from the base. Volunteer efforts for his campaign, from his base, have shot up. And he will keep that House Republican caucus, which is, frankly, the base, intact through this vote. That helps, the gin up of the republican base, you see in the polling, its keeping the republicans discipline. So the house will vote to impeach and it will move on to the senate. If you listen to the president s tweets, the supporters in the house, they say call in the whistleblower and hunter biden. But a key trump ally in the senate, Lindsay Graham, says no. This thing will come to the senate and it will die quickly and i will do everything i can to make it die quickly. I dont want to call anybody, i dont need to hear from hunter biden, i dont need to hear from joe biden. We can deal with that outside of impeachment. I dont want to talk to pompeo, i dont want to talk to pence. I want to hear the house make their case based on the record they established in the house and i want to vote. Its a simple translation to this, republicans believe maybe theyll lose one or two senators. But theres no way the president is going to be convicted. Why take the chance of bringing in witnesses, turning it into a circus, and maybe convincing if you look at the senators you have to watch on the republican side, maybe convincing Martha Mcsally who is up for reelection next year and cory gardner and Susan Collins who is up for reelection next year, or mitt romney, not loyal, alexander retiring. You turn this into a circus, you might lose my vote. And the vote not necessarily on a quitle, because i dont think were expecting any of them to vote to convict the president. What the concern would be in calling forward the witnesses is the senators have to vote to bring forward these witnesses, and some of those could be difficult votes for some of the members if they have to decide whether or not to senate into a circus, bringing people like the whistleblower and the like. And side with the president or side with trying to keep the process moving forward. They would rather avoid those votes, which is have Lindsay Graham and Mitch Mcconnell want this to and the president was invited to present a defense, and he declined to do so. You can read into that whatever you want at home. If he wanted to say this was perfect, he could have let them testify. If you go to the senate and the republicans say we want hunter biden, the democrats say give us mick mulvaney, the president may say he wants witnesses. The president really doesnt want witnesses, does he . Well, he doesnt understand the process and i think thats part of whats been going on is weve seen privately Mitch Mcconnell try to explain what this process actually is and isnt. What it is not is a reality show where you can have surprise people come in and a bombshell revelation. This is not how these things work. And i also think that the president and his advisers who are trying to strategize on what this should look like have had to take into account now in the last several days, there are not the republican votes to do some of these things. And even if we could get them, its not even necessarily a question of the substantive tough vote. Its the question of having to take vote after vote. We heard Lindsay Graham say i want to vote and get it out of there. They want a vote on convict or a quit. They dont want to be sitting there for days taking all of these tough decisions. And the president several days ago was tweeting i want witnesses. He has not been doing that. He appears to be listening for now. The president s defense, he calls democrats the party of hate and still insists his ukraine dealings were perfect. And as we go to break a little then and now on the politics of impeaching a president. My fear is that when a republican wins the white house, democrats will demand payback. Some day there will be a democrat president and there will be a Republican House and i suspect theyre going to remember it. Announcer inside politics is brought to you by salonpas. Try it for your pain. Ievers t. Salonpas lidocaine patch blocks pain receptors for effective, nonaddictive relief. Salonpas lidocaine. Patch, rollon or cream. Hisamitsu. The best of pressure cooking and air frying now in one pot, and with tendercrisp technology, you can cook foods that are crispy on the outside and juicy on the inside. The ninja foodi Pressure Cooker, the Pressure Cooker that crisps. Its not getting in my way. . I had enough joint pain, swelling, tenderness. Much better. 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Unaware that an exhilarating escape is just within reach. Defy the laws of human nature. At the season of audi sales event. We dont see who youre against, through or for,rs, whether tomorrow will be light or dark, all we see in you, is a spark we see your spark in each nod, each smile, we see sparks in every aisle. We see you find a hidden gem, and buying diapers at 3am. We see your kindness and humanity. The strength of each community. Weve seen more sparks than we can say. About 20 million just yesterday. The more we look the more we find, the sparks that make america shine. Sometimes history repeats itself, and sometimes it most certainly does not. The last time the house impeached a president was 21 years ago. The articles of impeachment cleared the Judiciary Committee on the second friday in december. The president was contrite. What i want the American People to know, what i want the congress to know, is that i am profoundly sorry for all i have done wrong in words and deeds. I never should have misled the country, the congress, my friends or my family. Quite simply, i gave into my shame. Fast forward to the here and now, 2019. The articles of impeachment once again cleared the Judiciary Committee on the second friday in december. The president , anything but contrite. Its a scam. Its something that shouldnt be allowed, and its a very bad thing for our country. And youre trivializing impeachment. My poll numbers, as you know, have gone through the roof. Fundraising for the Republican Party has gone through the roof. Were setting records. Nobody has ever seen anything like it. Because the people are disgusted. The people are absolutely disgusted. You try when you have something that is so rare to compare it to the last time and there are some parallels into the clinton impeachment. I covered the white house in those days. But the facts in despite, the articles of impeachment are very different. It was personal conduct on clintons part. Yes, he lied to a grand jury, but it was about personal conduct. This is about the exercising of president ial power. The strategy is im sorry, dont impeach me. Its im perfect. What got trump into this whole mess in the first place was asking ukraine to help legitimize his 2016 election and to settle scores with political rivals. Now he wants the senate to do the same thing. Trump doesnt want to be acquitted, he wants to be vindicated. And i know that trump hasnt said anything lately about having witnesses in the senate trial, but im told behindthescenes that he wants both. He wants a short trial and witnesses. So i would not equate that sort of silence with acceptance right now until we see trump on television or on twitter talking about staying in line the same way that mcconnell did. Hes not just doubling down. Theyre doing essentially the same thing theyve been doing. Rudy giuliani was just in ukraine in an effort to try to dig up dirt on the bidens and he returned and he was in the white house the day that the white house Judiciary Committee was moving to advance the articles of impeachment to the floor. And according to what he told the journal, trump called him about these very issues. Let me read that as you go. When he returned to new york, this is in the wall street journal, when he returned to new york, the president called him as his plane was still taxiing down the run away. What did you get . More than you can imagine, mr. Giuliani replied. Hes putting his findings in a 20page report. Hes talking about writing reports for the last four years. So again take that with a grain of salt. But to that point, you have pictures of him arriving at the white house on the day the articles of impeachment are moving through the committee. This is the president trying to say i dont care, im going to keep doing what im doing. But its a cynical effort to normalize it. Everybody does this. Everybody does not do this. Trump and his administration have always tried to say the quiet things out loud and by doing that they think that somehow it normalizes it and makes it legal or okay. But its the same with when he was out on the lawn saying china, will you also investigate the bidens, or will you also investigate my political rivals. And thats what happened, as manu said, with calling giuliani and saying what did you get after his trip to ukraine. The president s strategy has worked so far if the definition of success is keeping republicans in line. And you see that in the polling and the House Republican count. Well watch the senate, but pretty solid right now. Bill clinton didnt have twitter. Look at the president s average daily tweets. If you want to know the president is engaged in something you look at the internet and the far right of your screen. He is tweeting at a hyper level at this. Retweeting last night, he retweet retweeted manu at 12 30 a. M. One of the other Big Questions is when this goes to a senate trial, senators are the jury. Mitch mcconnell, you can call him the foreman. Hes the majority leader. He makes no bones about this. He met with the president s counsel last week and said everything i do is hand in hand. Everything i do im coordinating with white house counsel. There will be no difference between the president s position and our position as to how to handle this to the steextent th we can. Well be working through this process hopefully in a fairly short period of time, in total coordination with the White House Counsels Office and the people who are representing the president. There are some democrats and independent, angus king, whose caucus with the democrats are saying this is a conflict. Its supposed to be a fair and impartial juror. In the clinton impeachment days, the staff talked to the clinton peopl