Shot. That means a 30 chance. Marco rubio or jeb bush or right . Yeah, a little more. Donald trump. The most decisive victories in about 37 chance. The last 35 years have been with oh, im sorry. And then donald trump is a 94 diehard conservatives, Ronald Reagan and george w. Bush. Shot, followed by ted cruz, and they say what the party then people can see at home the nominates more establishment types like bob dole or john remaining competitors. Heres my question. Mccain, mitt romney, those are those odds determined by the candidates lose. And it sounds compelling. Wagering . In other words, does the market but theres an alternate set the relative wager, or is history. One that begins not with reagan, but with the drubbing that a that you and others sitting back very conservative, barry and saying, heres the way we think its going to go . Goldwater took in 1964. Well, we start off, you know, this school of thought says that today, even reagan himself setting the market, as we feel it should lie. Couldnt get nominated in a so thats based on media party dominated by tea party reports, polling, you know, our Freedom Caucus types. Traders opinions. Mccain, romney, they didnt lose and then generally the market takes over. So trump is a great example. Because they were insufficiently so hes currently 94, which conservative. But because of the contortions represents nearly a 30 chance. That were demanded of them by in reality, if we were setting the odds, he would probably be a evangelical christians and other social conservatives in primary 6, maybe even a 101 shot. And caucus season. We dont really see hes got the maybe if romney had run as the legs to carry this through. Reasonable republican who so that just the money governed the bluest state in the dictating. Punters are taking him at any nation instead of as i severe price. Its extraordinary. Conservative, he could have were laying him on punts to beaten obama. Instead, his many flip flops take him at any price, as i say. Ted cruz is the interesting one. Made him damaged goods in the general. So whats the answer . Since october, hes come in from probably that no experiment will about 101 to 31. Finally settle the debate, so, again, the punters are because neither side would beginning to, you know, look accept the outcome. Elsewhere. If cruz is nominated and loses bush has fallen away. Badly to clinton, conservatives cruz has kind of, you know, filled that space. Will blame the media, and say, so yet money talks. Well, moderates took a walk. Rory, let me put up the and if trump, rubio, bush, general election, and keep this on the screen, please. Kasich or christie gets so that it sinks in and people nominated and loses, the retort can take it in at rory, let me will again be they were general election. Insufficiently pure. For the Republican Party, good keep this on the screen please is perceived as the enemy of the so that it sinks in and people perfect. Can take it in at home. And as a result, victory, it Hillary Clinton is the favorite. Seems elusive. She is an 8 11 shot followed by ive got a lot of voices to weigh in on politics today, rubio, followed by trump. Including sarah palin, tom this is for the general ridge, and the political election. Who wins it all . Powerhouse of bob beckle, peter quickly speak to that. Waner and e. D. Hill. Hillary is about 8 11, first up, i wanted to talk to representing about a 55 chance. Somebody who has been seeing this rift opening up ever since the days of richard nixon, for 55 . 55 chance for a long, long whom he worked. Time. In terms of the party that is joining me now is patrick going to win it, we have the buchanan. Democrats, 814, a 60 chance. Patrick, Merry Christmas, thanks for coming back to the program. Merry christmas to you, thats been pretty much stable michael. Will you respond to the argument that for a republican to win the white house, youve for the last couple of years. Got to increase the nonwhite vote, and you cant get that the gop, about 65, which done with a pure conservative . Represents a 45 chance. Well, i think theres no at the moment, we fancy the doubt about it, that the Republican Party has got to increase its penetration and democrats to retain power next year. Vote among minority voters. Rory scott, thank you so much they did very badly. For being here. Is it fair to say the betting is but, of course, barack obama was heavier than in previous exceptionally strong. Elections . It is, very much so. Africanamericans, he won them we are expecting this to be the 241, i think in 2008. I agree with that, michael. Biggest political, biggest but you also need to get out the republican base, and the entire nonsporting market in our history. Holy smokes. Republican party. We appreciate your expertise. You need to unite the party. Everybody else, stick around. And frankly, if you look at what when we come back, i have to donald trump offers this year, read some of the best tweets of there is an x factor, michael. The week like this one. When you booked this trip, you didnt know we had over 11,000 this enormous excitement going on where you can get 15,000 local activities listed on our app. People in a hangar in mesa, or that you could book them right from your phone. Arizona, in december. A few weeks ago, at the same time, you take a look at the turnout for the you still didnt know if you were gonna go. For these debates. I mean, 27 million or something now the only thing you dont know, like that for a Republican Debate . So something is going on out is why it took you so long to come here. There that goes beyond the traditional demographic expedia. Breakdown. As i just mentioned, in technology that connects you to the people and places that matter. Vegas, i heard a lot of people say maybe this is the year we run the experiment. Because theres this argument within the party, do you go for ono offdays, or downtime. Ason. A bridge builder, or a socalled opportunity is everything you make of it. Pure conservative . You wrote a column recently about what happened with goldwater in 64, and you seemed to come down on the side that this winter, take advantage of our seasons best offers on the says you run the pure latest generation of cadillacs. Conservative, and be damned for the 2016 cadillac ats. Those moderates who might get in the way. Michael, the difference this get this lowmileage lease year is lets take goldwater is from around 269 per month, a pure conservative, say in ted or purchase with 0 apr financing. Cruz. In june of the election year, goldwater was down over 50 hi so it says here i can redeem my cashback bonus for discovercash. Points. Do i need to have a certain amount . Cruz is now running within four nope, you can redeem your cashback for any amount, any time. Or five points of Hillary Rodham thats great. Clinton so its a much closer yeah, you can use it for a statement credit or even get the cash. Nice. I could use that extra cash for a lastminute gift. Natural race. But i do agree that demographically, and given the one less thing hanging over your head, right . Blue wall the democrats have tell me about it. Established for those 18 states gary, you got to go. Whos gary . That have gone democratic six a mistake from last year coming back around again. Straight times, it is an uphill too much egg nog climb for a republican to win yes laaaaa. That election. At discover we treat you like youd treat you. One thing theyve got going for them, though, youve had two redeem your cashback for any amount, any time. Years of barack obama, and the get it at discover. Com. Demand for change in this country, and you can see it over there with Bernie Sanders, 2 million contributors, the demand for change in this country is extraordinary, michael. I heard from some conservatives in vegas, and they said, look, were not going to make the mistake we made in 08 or 2012. Mccain rwas not a real conservative. Romney was not a real conservative. And my response was to say, they had to so contort themselves in the nomination process that they lost the credibility that they needed to win a general election against obama. But you know how it is, pat. Everybody likes to look at a cycle and say, see, there, i told you. Maybe this will be the cycle where we settle this once and for all. But let me lets talk about mccain. He was down eight points when i was out at the Denver Convention for the democrats. And i said obama is going to win this thing, and i was the next morning, right after obamas speech, what did mccain do . He picked sarah palin, all right . And she gave a stunning speech at that convention. I remember. For a while, two weeks after that, mccain oddly was five points up. Now, in then, of course, you had the whole economy thing break down. Mccain handled it badly. So he went down to defeat. But the point of this is, theres a correlation. Now, bush was in there for eight years. Everybody wanted him gone. Hes down lower than nixon almost, when nixon departed. Now weve got obama, and the people have had enough of that. And the demand for change is very dramatic, michael. I agree with you, if youve got a normal thing and you run the normal demography, lets say weve got a bushclinton race. I think clinton would be the favorite and the republicans would really have to hold ohio and all the rest of it, florida. But this could be a dramatically different kind of race, given whats going on in the United States. And whats going on in europe. Look at poland, look at hungary, look at whats happening in frances and place. All of these places, the right is really moving. Patrick, a subject you pay close attention to, the shifting demographic of this country. Papa bush got 59 of the white vote in 88. It earned him 426 electoral votes. Mitt romney got the exact same share of the white vote, and it only yielded him 206 electoral votes, largely because the face of the country has changed. Thats the message i dont think the Republican Party has yet you can follow quite understood. Well, ive written about that you can follow me on twitter in several books. I know. Michael. And i will say this. If you can spell smerconish. The Republican Party is under a the guy grew up in public house, death sentence. Theres no doubt about it. Went to harvard, fought for his and i urge them back in 1990, country, congressman, governor, look, lets halt immigration, a secretary of Homeland Security. This came in, smerconish from moratorium on all immigration, joe. You know the gop is on the wrong assimilate, americanize the folks who have come here who are poor. As they come up and go through path when even pat bau can nan says theyve gone too far. The working class and middle this was from norma. Class, lo and behold like the irish and italians and the could be my favorite tweet of jewish and polish votes, suddenly under nixon back in the 2015. Smerconish, did you really just mid 60s, we moved them all call Obama Clinton feckless. Right into the Republican Party, and nixon won 49 states. That hugely popular fellow, michael. Feck you, smerconish. 49 states. Now, unless you have a timeout no, i didnt i said this is the on immigration, and even for a word that gets used by critics. Long period, english the have a Merry ChristmasRepublican Party is under a sentence of death. As i sat in vegas at the ill see you all in 2016. Thanks for watching. I have asthma. Venetian listening to the applause lines from the nine candidates on stage, i continually said to myself, it wins this audience. I dont know that it wins the nation. And thats where i think the party could come up short. You get the final word on this. I think youve got a very good point, michael. I was very concerned when i heard these people tell. One of many pieces in my life. Saying out loud, were going to so when my asthma symptoms kept coming back start shooting down russian planes in syria. On my longterm control medicine, i talked to my doctor and found a missing piece in the cold war, eisenhower never did Something Like that. In my asthma treatment. Truman i mean, nixon didnt. Oncedaily breo prevents asthma symptoms. Reagan didnt. Breo is for adults i remember when polands with asthma not well controlled solidarity was crushed, i urged on a longterm asthma control medicine, the president , be tougher on like an inhaled corticosteroid. Breo wont replace a rescue inhaler them. He wouldnt do it. He sent xerox machines to for sudden breathing problems. Breo opens up airways to help solidarity. I think the last thing the American People want is a war improve breathing for a full 24 hours. With a Nuclear Armed power like breo contains a type of medicine that increases the risk of death russia over syria or and from asthma problems and may increase the risk of hospitalization in bashir assad. Children and adolescents. So i think the Republican Party is too far out in the neocon breo is not for people whose asthma is well controlled on a longterm asthma control medicine, hawkish position on this, like an inhaled corticosteroid. Except, frankly, for cruz and once your asthma is well controlled, trump who seem to want to get your doctor will decide if you along with mr. Putin. Can stop breo and prescribe a and for rand paul. He may not be in the same different asthma control medicine, like an inhaled corticosteroid. League. But i was rand paul had a great night. Do not take breo more than prescribed. I was thrilled to have his voice on the stage, because but see your doctor if your asthma does not improve or gets worse. For rand paul and to a lesser ask your doctor if 24hour breo extent cruz and trump, youre right, we wouldnt have heard could be a missing piece for you. That argument. And the argument is, were not see if youre eligible for necessarily making ourselves 12 months free at mybreo. Com. Safe every time we open a new base in response to isis. When your cold makes you wish. Exactly. And what theyre saying is, i. You could stay. In bed all day. Think, theyre national security. You need the power of. New theraflu expressmax. Conservatives. If the vitals are at stake and i new theraflu expressmax. Am perilled, weve got to tell the power to feel better. Our adversaries. But the idea were going to start shooting down russian planes in syria is madness. Just about anywhere you can use splenda®. Patrick buchanan, thank you as always. No calorie sweetener. Thank you, michael. Splenda® lets you experience. And, again, Merry Christmas. The joy of sugar. You too, sir. This and so much more to get. Without all the calories. Into this week. And joining me, former mitt think sugar, say splenda® romney adviser, peter waner, now senior fellow at the ethics and Public Policy center. Conservative analyst e. D. Hill and democratic consultant, bob beckel. E. D. , great to finally have you here. Beckel, i love you. Peter, im glad your sons soccer season is finally over so i can get you on my program. Youre first, peter wayner. React to what you heard from buchanan about the experiment. What happens if its a pure conservative . Well, it depends on which the conservative. Who the conservative youre talking about. Marco rubio is a conservative, a product of the tea party. Hes a person that is a traditional conservative. I dont know that its so much the where they come down on the issues, because cruz and rubio are close on the issues. A lot of this has to do with disposition temperament. And i would say that ted cruz is a crusader, and marco rubio is a persuader. I tend to break politicians down into those two categories. And i think that when youre a republican on the national stage, the president ial election now, where youve lost five of the last six president ial elections in the popular vote, you need to have somebody who is a persuader. I think that temperamentally reagan was a conservative and goldwater was a conservative. But they had a very, very different approach in terms of politics. Goldwater had serrated edges, scared people. Reagan did not. He had the ability to bring people on board. And there was a grace to him. And an ease that he had. So im hearing from peter that its really not the issues, that its temperament. Do you agree with that . I saw you shaking your head when pat was speaking . Yeah, i think that temperament is important. But i also think that because of that, people arent looking i do not think youre going to get some extreme conservative. I dont see that does that mean ted cruz . Yeah, it does. Youre not going to get ted cruz. I dont believe so. We keep on focusing on the radical left and radical right when the majority of americans, if you talk to them, theyre in the middle. They lean a little that way but theyre looking for somebody who gives voice to their frustration with washington. And thats why nobody likes the Democratic Party right now or the republicans. Look at obama. But look at any of the leadership. I so agree with what you just said. And yet you would never know it to look at the media. And i think people then falsely he is accused of tampering perceive because theyve got talking heads on the far left with voter records and locking and far right. Out of files. Why the sudden about face . They think thats where the country is and theyre not. Because you make money it is also a busy day f creating arguments. Thats what media does. But the fact is, that when you talk to people out there, you walk through an airport, you go to your fifth grade class coffee. Who are they talking about . Even sometimes grudgingly say i like . Trump. Thats it. Bob, i want to show you a commercial. I find it very ironic that the two hispanic candidates actually cubanamericans to be more definitive on the republican side of the aisle, are the ones now duking it out on who is toughest on immigration. This is a ted cruz commercial that goes after marco rubio. Roll it. Securing our borders and stopping illegal immigration is a matter of national security. Thats why i fought so hard to defeat president obama and the republican establishments gang of eight amnesty program. Their misguided plan would have given obama the authority to admit syrian refugees, including isis terrorists. Thats just wrong. When it comes to Islamic Radical terrorism, we need to rediscover reagans strategy. We win, they lose. Beckel, react to that. The idea that cruz and rubio are duking it out. And frankly, you think theyre the two who should be most interested