Plane . The skies are about to explode. Significant tornado danger one day before santa takes to the skies. Wild weather for travelers from coast to coast. Hello everyone. Welcome to the lead. Im jake tapper. Our politics day every day for the past few months ive been asked on camera and off camera if i think donald trump will really win the republican president ial nomination. Every day ive had the same answer, ive seen no evidence to the contrary. And today more evidence to the affirmative. Trump ending 2015 in prime position to win the republican nomination with voting starting in iowa in just 40 days. Our last cnn orc poll of the year shows the republican frontrunner lapping his rivals. Sunlen fresh back from trip. Just to underline this, trumps number in this poll is more than double that of his next closest rival. Thats right. He is by far ahead 20 points ahead over the entire rest of the republican field. And more revealing this poll shows republicans are coming around to the idea that they have the best chance at winning the white house by nominating trump. Donald trump dominating the gop field. A new cnn orc poll shows trump on top with 39 support, more than double his next closest opponent ted cruz. Trumps lead is even more definitive when measured by the depth of his support on issue after issue on handling the economy, isis and immigration, voters all deem trump the best equipped candidate by commanding margin. She was favored to win and she got schlonged. She lost. Reporter storm caused by his latest controversy. Im watching the debate and she disappeared. Where did she go . Where did she go . I know where she went. Its disgusting. I dont want to talk about it. Reporter and now Hillary Clinton for the first time responding directly to trumps vulgar rhetoric about her. I really deplore the tone of his campain and the inflammatory rhetoric that he is using to divide people. Reporter clinton saying she thinks trump has a pension for sexism. I dont know that he has any boundaries at all. And his bigotry, his bluster, his bullying have become his campaign. Reporter trump hitting back tweeting, be careful, hillary, as you play the war on women or women being degraded card. Meanwhile, as they battle it out. Leave our kids alone. Reporter ted cruz takes on the Washington Post for this cartoon depicting his children as monkeys. When i saw that cartoon, not much ticks me off. But making fun of my girls, that will do it. Reporter this came after cruzs daughters appeared in a tv ad. I know just what ill do she said with a snicker, ill use my own server and no one will be the wiser. Reporter kids are generally considered off limits in politics. Cruz now using the cartoon to raise money and the opportunity to take on his favorite foe. Everyone expects the Mainstream Media to be liberal, to be biased. Folks want to attack me, knock yourself out. Thats part of the process. Ive signed up for that. Thats fine. And many of cruzs republican rivals came to his defense today chastising the Washington Post. And cruz specifically called out his democratic opponents for not doing the same. The Washington Post they have pulled the cartoon and replaced it with an editors note acknowledging that, jake, they should have never posted it in the first place. Kids are considered offlimits. One can only imagine if it had been the obama girls. Breaking right this second, brand new cnn orc poll numbers just like donald trump, Hillary Clinton will end this year as the clear frontrunner for the democratic president ial nomination. The former secretary of state still has a doubledigit lead in our nationwide poll. But her victory no way guaranteed. Senator Bernie Sanders did manage to narrow the gap. Cnn chief Political Correspondent dana bash here with me in washington. Dana, how i guess the big question is how firm is the support for clinton . You know, i think a couple ways to answer that. Lets just look at what happened before the debate saturday night and afterwards. Before her lead wasnt that big. She was 45 to 37 against Bernie Sanders. But in the interviews taken the night or the morning after the debate, 60 to 27 , perhaps this should be digested over at the Democratic National committee. They schedule very few debates. Theyre airing them on saturday night. Thats been my point the whole time. Shes a good debater. Shes a good debater and she does well. And she shores up her support. Surely in the shortterm among democrats, but that also she seems to be doing better because the issue set that voters care about thats in front of them right now National Security. Theyre of course in her wheelhouse. Looking at the issue of Foreign Policy she tops sanders big time 72 to 15 . And in handling isis 63 to 18 , jake. Now, if you talk to the Clinton Campaign and supporters of hers, they talk about how she cant wait to match up against either donald trump or ted cruz, but when you look at the poll numbers that we have and other polls, and headtohead matchups, shes not exactly setting the world on fire. Be careful what you wish for. Youre absolutely right. Within the margin of error when it comes to a matchup between Hillary Clinton and donald trump. She is besting him just by 2 percentage points, but she actually will lose, again within the margin of error loses 2 points to ted cruz and 3 points to marco rubio. Youre right, shes not necessarily setting the world on fire. Another way to look at it is this is a divided country. And no matter who is at the top of the ticket, its, you know, close to 50 50 right now. And its going to be a battle. And, you know, that definitely will be the case if donald trump is the nominee no matter what they think in democratic circles. The idea that Hillary Clinton will easily be able to beat donald trump is not she does beat him in most of the headtohead matchups that weve seen, but its not a blowout. I mean, i cant say that its guaranteed. Absolutely not. Democrats feel an incredible amount of confidence that the models are different for them in a national election. That, you know, voters tend to go out in bigger droves in areas that really matter to them. And so thats why they feel confident no matter who is on the republican side. But this is a centerright country. And people said these things about ronald reagan. Ronald reagan is very different from donald trump, but i dont think they should be measuring the drapes. Nothing predictable about this years politics other than its unpredictability. Dana bash, thank you so much. Lets talk about this with anita dunn and bill crystal editor of the weekly standard. Merry christmas, happy hanukkah. And everything to you too, jake, and your family. Thank you so much. Lets start with donald trump. Bill, you have been soliciting ideas for the name of a third party should donald trump get the nomination. You will i guess be bolting. Any good one, bull moose. Yeah, thats a good one. The federalist party, that was a good party in the olden days. I dont think Donald Trumps going to be the nominee. Its all going according to plan, jake. Whos plan . Youre a football fan. Its like misdirection on a running play, playaction pass, you want the democrats to think get prepared for trump and then he wont be the nominee and it will be a 45yearold senator like marco rubio or ted cruz or young governor like Chris Christie and a clinton team will all be ready for trump. I have to say i am starting to sense well, not an embracing of trump by the republican establishment, kind of coming to terms with the fact he may well, the lead is amazing. He has more of a lead over the republican field than Hillary Clinton has over Bernie Sanders. Said this six months ago, trump will be more ahead than clinton is ahead of sanders. Absolutely. Thats my deep analysis of the current situation. Nuts. I dont know how much stock you put in the polls, but the polls do show Hillary Clinton would have a tough time running against ted cruz or marco rubio. Well, jake, i dont put a lot of stock in polls until they have nominees they are not great predictors of the general election shapeup. Its a choice. I think when people look at the choice between if Hillary Clinton is nominee or Hillary Clinton or ted cruz or marco rubio or a donald trump, it becomes a very different kind of situation. One of the things thats really striking i was listening to bill is that, you know, it seems the Republican Party is really uniting around kind of the idea of a donald trump sort of message. You know, a really primal scream against their establishment, whereas the Democratic Party seems to be uniting around the idea of the establishment itself. The idea of the establishment but also continuity. I think its a really strong message about how democrats feel about, you know, the Obama Administration and moving forward with some of the same sorts of values and ideas that the president has actually, you know, worked for for seven years. Bill, do you have any thoughts on Donald Trumps use of the word schlonged to describe can i keep them to myself. Youre a man who knows yiddish. Hes a vulgar man. I think the word in his mind probably means generic term for somehow defeated or, you know, whatever. A lot of yiddish terms had more precise origins. General speech just became general somewhere leah rostin is rolling over i know, right. Trump is appalling. My point of view honestly a trumpclinton matchup, is that really what america wants . A vulgar rich businessman and a former first lady a rich former first lady . Donald trump did this veiled it wasnt so veiled threat to Hillary Clinton. You saw it in the piece just a second ago. In which he basically said do not play the woman card, the war on women card or the woman being degraded, hillary. He was warning her. It seemed very clear to me he was saying i will be talking you keep doing that im going to talk about bill. Isnt that a risk . You know, i want to take issue not bill i understand. I will defend bill crystal. Thank you. No, i take issue with something bill just said to characterize Hillary Clinton as a former first lady, former wealthy first lady is to ignore a lot of her experience and a lot of things shes accomplished. I think when voters look at her they think shes undoubtedly qualified for the presidency. You can often learn more about a person by how they react to a loss than how they react to a victory. I think no one who looks at donald trump is going to doubt for a minute that he will be willing to say anything and more should he become the Republican Partys nominee. So accusations against bill clinton you think will come up . I cant predict what donald trump will do and i dont think anybody can including donald trump on any given day. But the reality is hes shown he isnt going to stop at anything. But the real questin is, is that really what the American People want to hear . Is that what theyre looking for in the next president . I think democrats look at him and say thats not the Winning Ticket for the American People. Well take that matchup. Merry christmas. Happy hanukkah. Happy new year to both of you. Thank you, to your viewers too. New details on an attack that killed six americans. How did a motorcycle filled with explosives get past a security checkpoint . That story next. train horn vo wherever our trains go, the economy comes to life. Norfolk southern. One line, infinite possibilities. Isnt it beautiful when things just come together . Build a beautiful website with squarespace. Welcome back to the lead. We have some breaking news in our world lead. Moments from now the remains of the six u. S. Service members killed in that suicide bombing in afghanistan earlier this week are expected to arrive home. Among them Staff Sergeant chester mcbride, a former football hero from statesboro, georgia. Staff Sergeant Peter being remembered by his family funny and a family man. Leaves behind 3yearold daughter and pregnant wife. Staff Sergeant Luis bonacasa. His brother says he lost his hero. Adrianna a pioneer of the policy of dont ask, dont tell. One of the openly Gay Service Members to serve. Staff sergeant lem returned home from afghanistan to surprise his family as his daughter performed in a singing contest. Today flags at new york state building are flying at half staff in his honor. 28yearold Staff SergeantMichael Anthony cinco hailed from a town of 16,000, described as an ambitious man with a, quote, good head on his shoulders. New details are emerging about just how the attack was executed outside bagram air base. Lets get to barbara starr. Shes live at the pentagon. Barbara, what are your sources telling you . By all accounts the afghan bomber got past an initial Afghan Security checkpoint with explosives undetected. What happened next was devastating. And the problems in afghanistan just seem to grow every day. Fellow troops mourn the lives of six u. S. Air force members killed by a suicide bomber in afghanistan. The devastating attack happened on a Security Patrol outside of bagram airfield. Their mission, to talk to local afghans in nearby villages looking for any signs of the taliban. A u. S. Official tells cnn the suicide bomber used an old motorcycle instead of a suicide vest packing the internal spaces of the bike full of explosives. The motorcycle detonating as the troops were on a narrow path where surrounding walls confined the blast and made it even more powerful. The taliban taking credit as the group makes a resurgence in the southern part of the country. In Helmand Province where u. S. Forces fought for years, Afghan Security forces are now locked in an intense battle with taliban fighters. Afghan reinforcements have been sent to help. Building an army is not the work of two years, three years or four years. It is a young army. It need maturity. It need enablers. Reporter years of u. S. Military training still may not be enough. Its one of those areas where during the daytime the government controls territory. During the nighttime a lot of that same territory is actually being controlled by either the taliban or in some cases potentially even isis. Reporter isis has been making Radio Broadcasts as a recruitment tool. And some in afghanistan are listening. Isis also has russian president Vladimir Putins attention. Moscow says it will share intelligence, but not weapons, with the taliban to counter isis. So are we now looking at a new putin agenda . Back in afghanistan nearly 30 years after the soviet union withdrew after a devastating nineyear war there, jake. Barbara starr at the pentagon, thanks so much. A british muslim family says its disney trip was ruined after being prevented from boarding a plane to california. Why did u. S. Officials deny their entry right before the flight was scheduled to leave . Plus, the woman charged with murder for plowing her car into a crowd faced a judge just hours ago. What did she say in court . That story next. Is never easy. Doing your own thing, making your own way can be pretty, well, bold. Rickie fowler is redefining what it means to be a golfer. Quicken loans is doing the same for mortgages. Quicken loans. Home buy. Refi. Power. Official mortgage sponsor of the pga tour. Just serve classy snacks and bew a gracious host,iday party. No matter who shows up. [cricket sound] richard. Didnt think you were going to make it. Hey sorry about last weekend, i dont know what got into me. Well forgive and forget. Kind of. I dont think so do you like nuts . Youre not thinking about all the money you saved by booking your flight, rental car, and hotel together. All youre thinking about, is making sure your little animal, enjoys her first trip to the kingdom. Expedia, technology connecting you to what matters. Even tempurpedic mattress sets getat low clearance prices c, save even more on floor samples, demonstrators, and closeout inventory the year end Clearance Sale is on now at sleep train your ticket to a better nights sleep welcome back to the lead. Im jake tapper. Making headlines in our world lead today. A british muslim family told they could not fly to the United States. Now, initially the family of 11 said that theyd received authorization to fly in advance so that they could visit disneyland in california, but just before boarding their flight to california the family was told that the u. S. Department of Homeland Security had revoked that authorization. Why . Lets get right to cnns aviation correspondent rene marsh. I asked the white house whats the deal, they referred me to the department of Homeland Security which has 60 different potential reasons why the family might have been denied entry to the u. S. Do we have any idea which one of the 60 it might have been . In an answer, no. Because department of Homeland Security they wont tell cnn privacy issues. And thats really whats fueling the frustration overseas. Couple that with what some see as an antimuslim climate in the United States as president ial candidates call for a ban on muslims entering the country. Now some are wondering if thats why this