Procedures not followed before the Texas Church Massacre . Plus, President Trump paging democrats, telling them that rich folks like them would take a bath under his new tax plan as we find out how much the middle class could pay. This is cnn breaking news. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the lead. Im jake tapper. Were going to start with breaking news in the politics lead today. A new cnn poll gauging what americans think of President Trump, with today marking, of course, one year since this nation voted him into the white house. This Progress Report comes one day after many voters showed up on election day to cast an antitrump vote, according to exit polls. Giving democrats key wins in several races. It comes with the president s longest International Trip yet. Stopping in china for todays high stakes. The factors at home that have Many Americans losing confidence in trump. Were going to go to cnn political director David Chalian at the magic wall. David, start with the big picture, how does the public think President Trump is doing in office . Here is the big picture headline, jake, brandnew poll numbers, a year after his election donald trump is not wearing very well with the american public. We asked people has your confidence in him after watching his statements and actions increased or decreased . Nearly twothirds say their confidence in trump has decreased since he took office. Take a look at how that splits up by party. Nearly a quarter of republicans have reduced confidence. And twothirds of democrats. 40 of americans say hes doing a good job keeping his campaign promises, but a majority, 55 , say hes not. Take a look how this has changed since we checked in on the 100day mark in april. 48 of americans said he was doing a good job keeping promises. Now thats down to 40 . You mentioned the foreign trip that the president s on. One of the other questions we asked, jake, is, do leaders of other countries respect President Trump . We asked those that took this survey that question. More than twothirds of americans say no. Only a quarter of americans say yes. When we asked that back in april, jake, that was 36 . This has gone down 12 points since april and thats largely driven by republicans. There is one big silver lining, and that is the economy. Take a look. 68 of americans say that Economic Conditions today are good, and, jake, go back to january. Look at that number it has been climbing all throughout trumps presidency. The economy is his silver lining. In fact, when we ask about his approval on the economy, of every issue we tested he does best on the economy. 45 approve, 46 disapprove. You may say those dont look like great numbers, but an even split right now, those are pretty good numbers for President Trump. One final question for you, looking ahead to 2020. I know its a little early jake, we just had 2017 election. Does donald trump deserve reelection . Nearly twothirds of americans say he does not. Thats the assessment a year after he was elected president , jake. All right. David chalian, thank you so much. I want to bring in my panel to talk about where the Republican Party goes from here. Neera, lets start with you. Those are bad poll numbers for the president , no question about it, but the outlook on the economy is stunningly good, especially considering the last decade and where the public has been. Is that not something that President Trump will be able or will potentially be able to convince the American People, hey, you like the economy, thats because of me . I think actually what you saw last night is that people are actually able to put things in two different boxes. They dont like trumps presidency. They do like the economy. They dont, you know, theyre not thats not what people are voting on. Theyre voting on and whats driving the vote is a repudiation of donald trump and his policies. He didnt just run even yesterday. Democrats came out across the country to vote against him and his policies. Now, the kind of policies hes put forward which have been incredibly divisive and one of the reasons i think the American People are rejecting him. There was an anniversary tweet that the president did today, david urban. Congratulations to all of the deplorables and the millions of people who gave us a massive 304 to 227 Electoral College land slide victory. I guess its not so unusual for politicians to focus on the positive, not the negative, even if the positive was a year ago and the negative is right now, but does President Trump need to address some of these issues that we see in this polling or the Election Results that we saw last night . So, i disagree with neera. Shocking. That this is, you know thats the first time. I know. That this is somehow a wholistic indictment of the president. The election or the poll numbers . Well, both actually. The poll numbers are a snapshot in time. The election was a wide swath in pretty narrow states that didnt vote for the president. I think virginia not surprising and new jersey not surprising. New york city not surprising. So im not so sure where the big shock is there. I do think that, you know, people vote their pocket books. You have these numbers on the economy are proof that whats going on in terms of cutting regulations, the president s policies on getting government out of business sector, allowing business for flourish, 5 trillion in stock market value creation. Those things are great. People vote their pocketbooks during the election and when hes on the ballot, think hell get reelected amanda, take a listen to virginia congressman scott taylor, former navy s. E. A. L. Talking about the democrats big win in the commonwealth of virginia. I think last night was a referendum. I dont think there is any way you can look at it differently, to be honest with you and be intellectually consistent. Hes a conservative, a former navy s. E. A. L. Hes not a trump basher. We have him on the show all the time. Hes not just someone who bashes President Trump. Are you concerned as a conservative who wants to see republicans do well in 2018 and 2020 . Any good political operative is going to look at the results from last night and see is there a trump protest vote . If there is, i believe there is, how big is it . This is the first time that donald trump has suffered any kind of political disciplining factor for his style, his substance because until last night, everything if it works, were winning, life is great. Continue, continue, continue on the trump train. Well, now there are some brakes that have to be applied to that train. So my question is how will donald trump react as the head of the party . A sensible republican leader would give people permission to distance themselves in competitive races, but judging from trumps tweet at ed gillespie last night where he essentially knifed him for not running on the trump agenda hard enough is not a good sign of things to come come politically from donald trump. I would say just a quick followup on that. The democrats did what they needed to do. They turned out big numbers. The grassroots, while the party may be completely discombob lated, the base, the grassroots, lots of turnout. Did a very face job. In suchen counties that we have lost in the past. Democrats picked up seats against republicans. They did a good job to amandas point, ed gillespie lost to a trump acolyte and i think republicans werent that excited about turning out. Its turnout. You have to turn out your base and your voters. Republicans didnt do that. He wasnt super excited. Corey did effectively move the race to the right. Corey stewart, the bannonesque republican candidate. Lets just say steve bannon this weekend claimed credit for Ed Gillespies campaign. He said this was the kind of campaign that i would run and he endorsed ed gillespie. The idea that he wasnt running a trumplike campaign is ridiculous. He ran on gangs and racial issues. He heavily racialized a race and i think what happened is a lot of people were disgusted by that and came out to vote against it. It turned out democratic votes. It did. It turned out College Educated white voters against trump. Abc news is reporting that bannon said he offered to gillespie twice to campaign with him and was furious when gillespie turned him down. Would that have changed anything, do you think . Listen, again, it may have driven voter turnout in Northern Virginia, but it may have also driven turnout in the more rural parts. In the southwest. Thats the problem ed gillespie had, right . He couldnt be too hot, he couldnt be too cold. The porridge had to be just right. Lets give amanda the last word. The speech that steve bannon recently gave which i think had a lot of interesting things in it had a great deal of bushbashing. Ed gillespie was a prominent figure in the bush administration. I could see how that would be a conflicting message to have bannon come in, bash the bush legacy which is essentially Ed Gillespies resume. Everyone, stick around. Hes come out publicly against President Trump so what does republican senator jeff flake think about the democrats winning night last night and its future on the impact of the party. Hes going to join us live next. Tmobile family plans now come with netflix included. Thats huge. Thats right. Tmobiles got your Netflix Subscription covered. When you get a family plan with two or more lines. Really . Thats incredible. So go ahead and watch however you want. Youre messing with me, right . All at no extra charge. 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We wanted to take a moment to step back and take a look at the governors race in battleground virginia and how the Democrat Ralph Northam beat republican ed gillespie in one of the first indications of how voters might be reacting to mr. Trumps presidency so far. Gillespie chose a strategy of trying to thread a needle. He distanced himself personally from President Trump, but accepted the president s support on twitter and campaigned with Vice President pence and pursued a Tv Ad Campaign that embraced many of the president s positions on issues such as immigration and confederate statues. An apparent attempt to win over the trump base and get them to the voting booths. Running ads like this one. Ms13 is a menace, yet Ralph Northam voted in favor of sanctuary cities which let dangerous illegals back on the street. I want to keep our statues up. Our history is our history and we need to teach it. Not erase it. Now, before election day, before yesterday, trump strategist steve bannon said, quote, i think the big lesson for tuesday is that in gillespies case trumpism without trump can show the way forward. If thats the case, democrats better be very, very worried. It was gillespies embrace of President Trumps agenda and his talking points that made the race close, bannon said. Of course, the race did not really actually end up being close, as most polling suggested it would be. Gillespie lost by almost 9 percentage points. When gillespie ran for senate in 2014, he only lost by. 8 . President trump quickly took to twitter last night to disown gillespie saying, quote, ed gillespie worked hard but did not embrace me and what i stand for. Many conservatives interpreted last nights election as a referendum on President Trump. Take a listen to republican scott taylor from virginia on cnn this morning. I think last night was a referendum. I dont think there is any way you can look at it in a different way to be honest with you. We took a look at the numbers. Here is the thing, gillespie actually did get his voters to the polls. In the deep red parts of virginia, he did better than the 2013 republican candidate for governor ken cuccinelli. He did better numerically than he did in 2014 when he almost won. In fact, ed gillespie got more votes than any republican candidate for governor in the history of the commonwealth of virginia ever. But ultimately Democrat Ralph Northam shellacked him with the largest margin for a victory for a democrat in virginia since 1985 thats was partly due to the huge turnout for the democrats in the suburbs. In loudoun county, in 2014 gillespie almost tied his democratic opponent in that county. This time the democrat took 60 of the vote. Better than Hillary Clintons share of the vote in 2016 and she won virginia. Better than the democratic governor in 2013. Now, granted it was a tough crowd for gillespie, this state. Onethird of the voter whos showed up were at least partly motivated for voting against donald trump, but in addition to that, it seems what gillespie did to rally his supporters successfully apparently also so turned off the suburban voter whos had once been willing to listen to him. His fate was sealed. Joining me now is outgoing republican senator jeff flake of arizona who has been a frequent critic of President Trump. Senator flake, thanks so much for joining us. Tell United States hs how you t republicans across the country should decipher last nights Election Results. I havent had the time to analyze it that you have. Weve had a bit of a busy day here. But i think weve seen the limits of how we can drill down on the base. Weve got to play addition rather than subtraction and i think that thats the message that we ought to take. And you seem to be suggesting gillespie was only focused on the base and not adding some of the swing voters, the moderate voters in the Northern Virginia suburbs, for example. I do think that we do better with a more inclusive message. So i think that that is something that we can learn from last night. Do you think your party is learning that from last night . Well, i dont know. Its just been 24 hours or less. So i hope we do. I think that was the case before. Well have blips. You can rile up the base and win an election here or there, but in the end youve got to, you know, appeal to a broader electorate. To suburban iteites. I dont think we are right now. At least not the administration. You told me last month that one of the reasons youre not seeking reelection you feared you wouldnt be able to win the primary in arizona because of the political climate. You said you didnt think you could win because at some point the fevers going to break but you dont think its going to be within the next year. Thats right. Do you think last night was a suggestion that the fever is breaking to any sort of degree . Well, that doesnt suggest that its breaking in a primary. I think the republican primary electorate is very much behind the president. Im just suggesting that that may not be enough to win general elections around. It may determine the type of candidate we get out of a primary, but it doesnt mean that you can win a general election. 39 of virginians in exit polls said that health care was their top issue. And obviously well, i dont know if you know this, actually, more than 70 of voter whos said health care was their top issue, they went for the democrat. Do you think that might change the republican calculation when it comes to the push to repeal and replace obamacare or at least in terms of what they might replace it with . Well, i know in arizona a lot of people are hurting because of obamacare. Certainly those who are trying to buy on the exchange. That has to be balanced by those who have benefitted from the medicaid expansion. Think every state will have to make calculations there. So it calls for certainly a well thought out response but i think were better off by repealing and replacing. The politics of how that plays into the election coming up, well see. I dont know. I havent looked at those numbers with regard to virginia but i certainly will. Last night, President Trump<