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CNNW Wolf May 18, 2015

Confident the tide will turn back. He says very soon in ramadi. He says the air strikes the u. S. Led air strikes will continue. Are you getting that same sort of upbeat assessment what some are calling spin coming in from pentagon officials . Absolutely wolf yes. This is the line that youre hearing this morning across washington from the administration. Secretary of state john kerry already saying he thinks ramadi could be retaken very soon by the iraqi forces the pentagon saying its a setback, but its only a setback for today. That iraqi forces will move with u. S. Assistance to retake the city. I think many people believe that will be very problematic. This is an urban area. Iraqi forces have fled. The people are under siege. Isis has moved in ieds once again, a massive fighters a mass of fire power digging them out of an urban area is not something air strikes is going to be able to do. It doesnt work that way. Air strikes dont work unless that way until youre willing to take civilian casualties and the u. S. And iraqis are to the. What we have here is exactly what the information says said it didnt think isis was capable of doing, massing a large number of its fighters and going in once again as an offensive military force. Thats what happened in ramadi and the big unanswered question is why could the Iraqi Security if forces not stop them . Wolf . They did in ramadi what they did in mosul, flee. Whats your analysis nick of whats going on . Because this looks like a disaster . Well it is exactly the opposite narrative that the u. S. And coalition have been trying to give about anbar, that this is going to be the next place the iraqi forces cleaned isis out of. Instead theyre trying to explain its not that important but were still going to have to retake it. Messy narrative. 500 dead in the last weekends worth of clashes. Isis showing their capacity to penetrate into the town and most shockingly the elite of the elite frankly past the golden vision of iraqs Security Forces leaving in a hurry and leaving behind what seems to be quite a lot of their armor and weaponry. Right now about 15 kilometers to the east iraqi tribesmen, loyal to the government along with police they say have those days ago even a fraction of them they would have been able to affect a change inside ramadi. As messy response and many asking how we got to this stage where shia militia will be called upon to try to retake the city. Thats a very complicated task not only because as barbara says isis will be dug in fast with good weaponry but because theyre shia and this is a pretty sunni town. That could find a nasty moment in ramadi. The Iranian Defense minister is also in baghdad, too. Thats leading to fears that is growing into a wider potential for conflict for iraq. Hes meeting his counterparts to offer iranian assistance. The u. S. Not on the sidelines here but i think trying to construct an effective response. Wolf . Certainly theyre trying to do something. Well see what happens. Nick thank you very much. Barbara starr, back to you at the pentagon. Lets talk more about the importance of ramadi and what has happened including the participation of iranian backed shiite militias the u. S. Backed Coalition Air power, lots at stake. Ramadi sits at the west of baghdad, to the west of fallujah also under isis control. The Anbar Province the site of the most deadly battles for u. S. Troops during the war in iraq more than 1,000 American Military personnel were killed in the battle for Anbar Province. Joining us now is our Global Affairs analyst retired colonel james reese, former delta force commander. From toerntto mubean sheikh former terror operative. Give your quick analysis ramadi a city of half a Million People 120,000 of them have already fled. It looks like a disaster thats unfolding right now. Whats going on . Yeah wolf. I mean it is a setback, no question. The coalition have been doing pretty good bombing out there, but you have to be able to follow it up with Ground Forces to seize that terrain. I think one thing you will watch here over the next couple days is what the pictures youre seeing are all out of the north and northwest of ramadi and because the fighting started to get so close in the iraqis have sometimes some problems which a lot of militaries do at some times making sure the logistics can get up to help out the front line traces of the combat folks. One thing we might see is a pullback of the iraqi forces which leaves isis kind of in the clear in the north and northwest where the Coalition Air forces can go back in there and really bomb them hard with air strikes and allow the iraqis to get reset and go back in and grab that terrain. The isis fighters who have now taken over ramadi just as they took over last year mosul, the second largest city in iraq a city of 2 Million People not only will they collect all the weapons that the Iraqi Military abandoned including armored personnel carriers artillery, tanks, a lot of sophisticated weaponry that the Iraqi Military like they did in mosul, now they did in ramadi abandon, what will they do . Do these isis fighters have the capability to take advantage and actually use the sewophisticated largely u. S. Supplied equipment . Most definitely, wolf they have the capabilities to use the weapons. A lot of isis members are exbaathist came from the military and intelligence establishment so that kind of training has already occurred. Theyve trained individuals in isis to have compre tennessee in the use of these weapons and theyve done this everywhere else theyve attacked other weapon storages. The training is in place already. They tend to send people who know how to use the weapons as well so when theyre obtained they can be used right away if need be. Well let me ask colonel reese, why is the Iraqi Military so awful . Wolf theyre not awful. All right. Its just a very difficult thing to sync together and one of the problems weve watched over the year is they have to get rearmed and refit across the spectrum of their military. Theyve got a very good police force that did great job in tikrit. Theyre out there now. At the end of the day, we have to bring all the combat power and the Prime Minister today signed a paper to allowing some of the badder corps and other militias that were prominent in tikrit and federal police in the Seventh Division will come out there and theyll help. I think this is good because at the end of the day, the iraqis not about sunni and shia iraqi nationalists and right now they have a common enemy and they want to defeat daesh, isis in al anbar. Final question to you, on the u. S. Delta force operation, the special Operations Force that went into syria and killed abu sayyaf described as the chief Financial Officer of isis how big of a deal do you believe this is . Well its, you know a midsized deal i guess. I mean the individual will be replace replaced, of course, but on one side a lot of documentation has been obtained in the raid. Well see what kind of intelligence comes out of the wife of the individual. But you know what there are far more waiting in the wings. One down and many more to go. Thanks very much. James reese, guys well continue our reporting on whats going on. Major major developments. And to our viewers out there, dont miss blindsided how isis shook the world, that airs tonight 9 00 p. M. Eastern only here on cnn. Up next more on the fall of ramadi is raising serious concerns about the fight against isis the future of iraq as a country. The role of iran shia versus sunni tensions. Analysis on that. 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Call Liberty Mutual for a free quote today at see Car Insurance in a whole new light. Liberty mutual insurance. The fall of a key iraqi city to isis complicates the efforts to defeat the terrorist group. Ramadi is about 70 miles or so west of baghdad as the capital of iraqs hugely important Anbar Province. The loss of the city raising strategic and political concerns. Lets get more analysis. Joining us the former assistant secretary of state james rubin and former democratic congresswoman jane harman, for scholars here in washington. How much of a setback, jane is this the loss of isis the loss of ramadi to isis right now . I think its political terms what i assume youre asking me is a big deal and i cant imagine if i were a moderate sunni living in iraq right now, why i would want to fight for iraq and whats wrong with the picture is the shiite militias are basically iranian inspired militias and if they are going to take over sunni enclaves in iraq the message is that were just repeating what the mall lackey administration did wrong, a body is not an improvement ands they goes downhill fast. Theres a lot of concern, jamie, the secretary of state john kerry insisting hes, quote, absolutely confident the tide will turn against isis in ramadi. Is that confidence at least the public bluster, justified . Its not justified based on the current alignment of forces that we have facing isis right now. It would be justified if we took a rather modest step forward. The reason the air power cant work is because it cant be coordinated with anyone on the ground. If the United States would deploy some of the special forces that were so effective in syria for short periods of time to coordinate with its Close Air Support and aircraft the american air power would have a far greater ability to destroy the isis forces. If were going to sit back and have shiite militias do the fighting then its not going to go very well for a while. Secretary kerry will be right, of course, over time if the entire shiite military force is brought to bear on ramadi they will win. But what we dont want to see is a situation where the iraq government is reliant solely on shiite militias meaning so reliant op iran. Yeah. And because you know, jane the iraqi sunnis and they feel oppressed by the majority of shiites in iraq lets not talk about the kurds for the time being, but the iraqi sunnis in anbar and elsewhere will be very, very angry if the central baghdad government brings in the these paramilitary iranian backed shiite forces to do the work for the Iraqi Military. That potentially could be a huge disaster and set the scene for the disintegration of iraq as the country we know. I think we have to contemplate that wolf, i dont think this is a time for fall cheerleading and im not accuse accusing secretary kerry of anything hes tried his hardest to make the abadi administration succeed but its not succeeding. The Vice President joe biden recommended five or so years ago that more maybe longer that iraq maybe should break into different parts according to the tribal affinities. Sunni, shia and kurd and have a confederation government. Maybe we should be thinking about that because im afraid and i think jamie was right, that if the moderate sunnis in iraq give up and they seem to be giving up that this will this country, no matter what abadi tries to do and we try do will be overrun by iran. Im not confused about the right answer it to the 2003 vote that i made if i knew now if i knew then what i know now i would have voted now to. Thats no. The whole iraq war and you voted in favor of that resolution from your perspective, that whole iraq war turned out to be a mistake . Colossal mistake. I voted for it because i believed the intelligence the intelligence was wrong, my vote was wrong, and our second big mistake, by the way, was empowering malliki to lead iraq forward after we sacrificed so much in terms of blood and treasure to get to a place with the surge, with the strategy where we thought iraq could take off. Maliki was a disaster and abadi is trying harder has better instincts, but hes unable to push the giant rock up this giant hill fast enough i think to save cities like ramadi and lets not pretend that we can see the same movie over again and have it come out differently. Thats not going to work. Very quickly, jamie, do you agree the war in iraq was a mistake . Well clearly the devastating consequences of the war in iraq far outweigh the advantage which is the end of Saddam Hussein but the great irony, wolf at the time dick cheney was promoting the war he argued there was terrorists in iraq iraq was supporting terrorist organizations and thats why we should go into iraq. The great tragic irony a decade later after billions if not trillions of dollars and thousands of americans, there really are terrorist organizations in iraq today and now having committed so much force and so many lives and so many billions of dollars were not prepared to take a few steps to defeat that force that poses a direct threat to the United States. Now iraq poses a threat. It didnt ten years ago and its a shame that the politics the pendulum of our political system has swung so far to the other direction that our president and others arent prepared to take some modest steps to defeat a genuine threat not the fake threat that was exaggerated ten years ago. Jamie rubin, thanks very much. Jane harman, thanks to you as well. We will continue our special coverage whats going on with isis and ramadi but other news were following here in the United States. Get this 170 bikers in waco texas, now facing capital murder and organized crime charges following a deadly brawl outside a popular restaurant. A former atf agent stand big to join us live. A poll plab spobdss are of of are dkz a after a horrific fight there between rival biker gangs left nine dead 17 hospitalized and 170 people in jail. People described the scene afterward as gruesome. Law enforcement had been tipped off there might be trouble and they were present but the battle that erupted was far more brutal and violent than officers expected. Moments ago Police Detailed the charges against those arrested. Those individuals are being charged with engaging in organized crime, in reference to the shooting at twin peaks, which is a capital murder. Its a capital murder because of the number of victims that were killed in one episode here. The tragedy brought this Swift Response from the twin peaks corporate office. Ill read it to you. Unfortunately the Management Team of the franchise restaurant in waco chose to ignore the warnings and advice from the police and our company and did not uphold the high Security Standards we have in place to ensure everyone is safe at our restaurants. We will not tolerate the actions of this relatively new franchisee and are revoking their Franchise Agreement immediately. With us via skype, is security expert former atf agent Matthew Horace senior Vice President with fshg jc Security Service are you surprised at what happened . Im in the surprised at all. Whenever you get this many armed criminals in one place at one time this is what you have the potential to happen. They do it yearround different places around the country. Law enforcement follows the organizations from an intelligent and criminal perspective and were very fortunate that this wasnt much worse than it was. A lot of people dead are and heres the question what should have been done to prevent this massacre . Well im quite sure that Law Enforcement had intelligence about the event and we wont know immediately, we will know at some point down the line if Law Enforcement officers were onsite onsite, meaning undercover or from an intelligence capacity. There are any number of things that could have been done but i can assure you this with the omos, outlaw motorcycle organizations contempt for Law Enforcement were fortunate on the heels we can police that there wasnt more gun battle and Law Enforcement officers werent hurt or killed in this interaction. Because there are these biker gangs, as you know well all over the place, all over the United States, and lessons have to be learned from the terrible situation in waco texas. Walk us through looking forward what some of those lessons are . I think there needs to be, you know the police chief said they wanted a very visible command presence. Again, when you have this many armed criminals at one place, you run the risk that this will happen. But obviously Law Enforcement has to work within the constraints they have and continue to investigate them. I can tell you from my experience at atf these groups a

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