Transcripts For CNNW Wolf 20170808 : vimarsana.com

Nuclear weapons. Immediately going to our pentagon correspondent barbara starr. Barbara, this would be a major, major breakthrough in north Koreas Nuclear capability if they had miniaturized these Nuclear Bombs so they could fit on these Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles . Reporter that is absolutely right, wolf. The Washington Post reporting a short time ago, and let me quote from them north korea has successfully produce add miniaturized Nuclear Warhead that can fit inside its missiles. So why is this so important . Because this is one of the key steps that north koreas been trying to achieve and the u. S. Has been trying to determine if theyve made it. Miniaturizing a warhead, putting it inside a missile, means that you do have a functioning warhead that can be delivered, fired, a great distance on a missile. So now were beginning to see the whole package coming together. Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles that can fire at targets some 5,000 miles away. Potentially attack the u. S. Guidance systems, targeting. Still have a lot of work to do on that, and the warhead on the front end. That miniaturized warhead that would have to be small and light enough to be inside a missile. There are technical challenges ahead for the North Koreans. They need to work by all accounts on their targeting, and in specifically on whats calmed reentry. When you fire one of these Ballistic Missiles you fire it high into the atmosphere. It comes back down. It reenters. Its under tremendous heat and pressure. You have to have a missile, a front stage and a warhead that can survive all of that heat, and that can be directed to a specific target. So theres a lot to be considered here that the north koreas may still have to accomplish. But make no mistake. No one is entirely sure the North Koreans are too fussed about worries about any of that. They have a rigorous, aggressive test program for their weapons. The question now, perhaps, is kim jonguns motivation in the coming weeks and months. Is he on the path that he claims hes on to try and attack the west . Is he looking basically to have all of this as a card to hold over the head of the west and get some sanctions relief . Get some type of incentives that he wants . The problem for the president of the United States is, theres no way around it. This is now a Nuclear Threat. The threat that President Trump and president s before him have said they would not allow to happen. Wolf . And if this were not enough and clearly, this is a major development. If this were not enough, barbara, the Washington Post also reporting now, citing this new Defense Intelligence agency assessment. Beyond the miniaturized Nuclear Warheads, theyre now suggesting that north korea may already have, according to the Washington Post, up to 60 Nuclear Weapons now controlled by the north Korean Leader kim jongun. 60 Nuclear Bombs is a lot more than many of the earlier estimates had put forward. Reporter it is. It is a number that is higher than we had generally been told about. Obviously, quite classified. I think that the most important thing to say right now is, one can only assume the u. S. Intelligence community does not have absolute centrtainty about any of this. All of this is an assessment and has been for years. North korea, of course, extremely closed. It doesnt let outsiders in. They are said to be getting help from the russians and the chinese. They may not whats going on, but the u. S. Relies on satellite intelligence, overhead imagery, radar emissions, electronic emissions in the air, that it might be able to pick up from radars or other test equipment. The infrared signals coming, infrared images coming from areas that may be very warm compared to the atmosphere, because theres testing or activity going on there. The u. S. For years has been in a position of putting the bits and pieces of the puzzle together. And making assumptions. And the u. S. Military, you know, we always talked about these options on the table. One of the reasons the u. S. Military has the options on the stable for this very reason. To be able to give any president of the United States options on the day he calls for them. Because you cannot be sure. U. S. Intelligence watch aring the peninsula around the clock, constantly making assessments. It has been the case for many years now. There has been an assumption, a planning assumption, that north korea could do all of this, because commanders like to say, you know, plan for the worst. Hope for the best. But they have definitely planned against the worstcase scenario. Now the question today where is the program . What is its actual real status . What is the assumption that is being briefed to the president of the United States . What advice is he getting from his military commanders . And his intelligence professionals . We know President Trump takes this matter very seriously. He may well now be the president in office that will have to deal with north korea, wolf. Yes. Clearly emerging as the Major National Security Threat facing the United States right now. Thats what president obama told the incoming president , President Trump, would be that Major National Security Threat. Clearly emerging with this Washington Post report suggesting that north korea has the capability now of miniaturizing Nuclear Warheads and may already have 60 Nuclear Bombs follows the successful launch of their Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles, that potentially could hit the continental United States. Barbara, stand by. I want to go to cnns will ripley who visited north korea a dozen times over the past few years joining us from beijing right now. A lot of experts thought if the North Koreans, a. , developed an Intercontinental Missile ballistic capability, clearly they developed that, the next step, miniaturized Nuclear Warheads. The Washington Post suggesting they have done that, and now this report suggesting they may already have 60 Nuclear Bombs. It seems to be moving very quickly, will . Reporter and its remarkable when you think about. I first traveled into the country in late 2014, and back then north korean officials is speaking confidently about their countrys Nuclear Program. Remember, kim jongun, a National Priority to become a fullfledged nuclear power. For a long time outside observers thought north korea was many, many years away from achieving that and yet now here we are with the likelihood according to u. S. Analysts that north koreas claims have now come to light. They are in possession of a miniaturized Nuclear Warhead that could fit on an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile according to these who studied the capabilities of the two launched in july could strike anywhere along the u. S. West coast. Denver, chicago and perhaps in a matter of months, have an icbm that could also strike new york and washington. Remember, it was last year in march that north korea released images of their leader standing in front of that metallic orb they claimed was a miniaturized Nuclear Warhead and there was a lot of skepticism at that time that wa accurate. Things changed dramatically showing the rapid pace. Remarkable to be inside the country. I was there back in june speaking with officials about this. This is a real sense of urgency there to develop these weapons, because they look at the United States and south korea and now japan as well, participating in military exercises on the Korean Peninsula a few miles from their borders and feel those exercises are a dress rehearsal to some kind of invasion. They dont believe the United States or secretary of state Rex Tillerson when he says the u. S. Doesnt want to invade. North korean citizens have been told their whole lives, one, america started the korean war, going against what every other outside historian said, and, two, america could attack again and why their country must invest a considerable amount of scant resources developing these weapons. And now new sanctions just passed. China is promising to enforce, could cut north korean exports by a billion dollars, roughly a third. Yet those sanctions will take a long time to even start to take effect. North korea, now months away from having this kind of a weapon, wolf. A weapon they never had before. This is truly unprecedented. Always a lot of conventional weapons, can do damage on the Korean Peninsula. Believe to have chemical weapons as well but never until now and icbm take a miniaturized Nuclear Warhead and potentially threaten the mainland of the United States. A huge, huge development. If, in fact, this report in the Washington Post is accurate citing the Defense Intelligence agencys last assessment over at the pentagon. Will, i want you to stand by as well. I want to bring in our military analysts retired colonel Cedric Leighton and Rick Francona and james spider marks. Talk a little about this. Spider, let me start with you. If this Washington Post report is true, it seems like the north Korean Military kim jonguns regime moved very, very quickly to develop an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile with a miniaturized Nuclear Warhead and may already have according to the Washington Post as many as 60 Nuclear Bombs . Yes, wolf. Lets make a couple of assumptions here. Number one, that the report is accurate. That the number of weapons that they have is accurate as well. But also bear in mind that these estimates are essentially that. That they are estimates, but you have as barbara indicated, you have to plan for the very, very worst in this. However, this is not an estimate that is suddenly we didnt turn on a switch and suddenly realize that this capability exists. This has been a linear progression off the part of the North Koreans for quite some time and the United States Intelligence Community in concert with a number of allies have been able to track this very, very clearly. What this does is it makes the imminence of an attack by north korea that much higher, because it now has a capability. Not just an intention to use something that might be in development, but we have to assume that its accurate. That the report is accurate. That they have a capability and that now the United States has a full array of options it has to be able to use, and it raises the spectrum of a potential conflict. Everybody on the peninsula has been preparing for this kind of engagement for quite some time and so there are measured heads that are in charge there, and clearly our National Command authority understands the severity. So the key thing is to ensure that our communications are open with beijing. The pathway to pyongyang, is through beijing. We have to be able to share this intelligence, make sure that the chinese concur that our assessment is correct, and now we have to have direct end treaties with the regime in pyongyang saying, look guys. This is as serious as it gets. Youve got away with it a long time because weve had strategic patience. Window is closing. Youre now a potential big bow boy at the tabled and need to act like a big boy with restraints, et cetera. All military analysts expecting this to happen in the years to come. I think what is a big surprise, its moving as quickly as it has. Rick francona, let me read you the Washington Post saying that north korea has successfully produced a miniaturized Nuclear Warhead that can fit inside its missiles, and then cites this Defense Intelligence agency report, and ill read to you from the report. According to the Washington Post. The ic Intelligence Community assesses north korea has produced Nuclear Weapons for Ballistic Missile delivery to include delivery by icbmclass missiles. Whats your reaction when you hear this report . Well, this compresses the u. S. Decision cycle down to almost nothing. Everybody was hoping that these two technologies of the North Koreans worked on, the missile technology, we could observe closely. We gather information on the capability. More difficult, assess the capability to develop this miniaturized Nuclear Warhead, which is the second piece of it. When you marry those two technologies, then you have a real capability. It appears that if this is true, the North Koreans have achieved that capability. Whereas, we thought in the past we had some time to let diplomacy work and the economic sanctions work. That decision cycle has almost collapsed, and now were farrised with a north korea that could potentially launch a missile in a very short period of time. And as barbara was telling us earlier, the military options that are presented to the president really are not that good, because if you assume that all of the other north korean technologies have matured, and im speaking particularly about this mobile launch capability. They could roll one of these things out and launch it far before we could treect react to. Its a major development, and this is going to set off alarm bells throughout not only the pentagon but the entire u. S. Government. And it certainly will, and already is. Cedric leighton, you lot of experience, assessed Nuclear Weapons for Ballistic Missile delivery, how reliable or accurate of these dia estimates based on your experience . Well, wolf, the accuracy varies, and it really depends on the target and the kinds of things that were looking at and what kind of sources we have in the intelligence world, and as far as korea itself is concerned, the assessments have been pretty accurate with the one big exception of knowing whether or not theyve been able to miniaturize a Nuclear Warhead, andif this vort true, and like were all assuming it is, then we have a significant gamechanger here. The Intelligence Community often is guilty of mirror imaging what it sees in its own society, and in things that it expects to happen, and sometimes we dont look very well at things that are surprises, frankly. So thats the big danger here. I think in this particular case, this dia assessment is probably pretty close to being accurate. Yeah. Pretty shocking, too, when you think of the timeline. How quickly all of this has unfoldaled. I want all of you, all of our cnn military analysts to stand by. A special guest right now for more perspective, bringing in the former United States ambassador to china. The former democratic senator from montana max baucus. Mr. Ambassador, thanks so much for joining us. First, let me get your reaction to the breaking news were following here. The Washington Post reporting that the u. S. Intelligence community now assesses that north korea has produced Nuclear Weapons for Ballistic Missile delivery to include delivery of these icbmclass missiles. Are you surprised . How dangerous is this situation right now . Im not terribly surprised. I think we americans tend to underestimate the capability and intelligence of people in other countries. Were a bit arrogant, at least on the margin. Second, i think its noteworthy that china is stepping up its role as a potential leader in trying to resolve this. Joining russia at the u. N. Thats noteworthy. These are very great additional sanctions as noteworthy. The foreign minister of china made it very clear, how upset they a