Difficulties we faced in turkey is to explain this event to our international counterparts. It is very complicated and difficult to express, and one of the difficulties and one of the mysteries of this event is also tackles fighting against three terrorist organizations in the coup attempt, and also how turkey is in thiswith challenges era. We have to go back to the background to understand these. We will have four distinguished guests today. We will try to understand what happened in terms of Foreign Policy and Security Issues in the aftermath of the july 15 coup attempt. Also some background about this. Speakers. Have four isassador james jeffrey, who a distinguished fellow at washington institute. Our second speaker will be professor rene. She is an expert on Turkish Security of Foreign Policy. Our third speaker is criminal richard alston, colonel richard alston. The chair speaker is andecurity studies professor of international university. Seta mr. Ambassador. Let me tackle this from two standpoints. One of them is the situation related to the coup and how it impacted bilateral relations. Secondly, the much broader context of americanturkish bilateral relations in the context of the middle east and eurasia. Was extremely fortunate to have survived a coup of this danger. And the United States, as many turks have pointed out, was expected to immediately embrace a democratically elected government after a military coup, and it was disappointing. I was involved in the decision in the first few hours, and i can assure you, this was not a deliberate action by the administration. Rather, any of you who have followed president obama in the press know that he does not make decisions quickly. He likes to have all of the facts. It was an effort to gather facts by many of us to find out what was going on. That led to the delay. That was unfortunate, because in circumstances like that, you have to act immediately and we did not. So that was the first blow. Was in some of the military commanders, was focused is entirely on isis. I want to underline that, because to understand the Foreign Policy context, when there is no more isis, the American Military will no longer have the war it has wanted for 20 years. Suddenly,ng well, interlopers cannot be talked with. Out whaterals blurted out the first things that came to mind. Know, the generals who run the war in syria and iraq are not the generals who report to our european command and work to corporate with turkey. The bigger problem is the ulenrrassing fact that the g is sitting in the United States. Asked for his extradition. The admission nation has yet to get a response that turkey would find acceptable. That will continue for some time because of the nature of the court system in america, which not only turks but donald trump has discovered are very independent and slow to take decisions. Nonetheless, there is a point that the administration could do more to rein in this organization, the allegedly Charitable Educational actions of an organization which at best is opaque and at worst, as many correctly believe i think, was behind the coup. Out of thisd news thing a year later is that as there is no see, think tank,ia academic or other actor who has appeared to challenge the idea that this coup was, as you heard this morning, mainly done by the ists. People that question what came after, and that will continue, but theres not been major challenge to that. Journalistsdent have come to the conclusion that the gulenists were behind it. What remains in play on a bilateral level is that first of all, turkish suspicions that begin on the evening of july 15 and have continued. The very difficult problem of extraditing gulen, and largely concern in washington that the turkish government has gone too far in dismissing people from government jobs or prosecuting tie because of an alleged to the movement. This is tied up with the overall discomfort of many in america with where turkey is going politically. Not economically or in terms of security or diplomacy, politically. Again, that is not at the center of american concerns, at least not the administration concerns, it plays a big role in media and congress, and both will have to watch it in terms of the broader for policy, the basic issue is the global system that both america and turkey have participated in and very much benefited from is under threat. In the middle east, it is under threat by iran to some degree, the sunni radical extremist groups, and now russia joining iran and in europe, it is under threat by russia. This is something that both the United States and turkey are aware of. Erdogan has spoken of a turkish approach the news to be worked on. Thes very different from apocalyptic approach. To him it is more videos geostrategic issue. This is an area of considerable cooperation and coordination between the two countries. I am pretty optimistic about that. Syriay issue will be after isis is defeated, what could be, and when i say isis is defeated, i mean as a state and army, not as an idea or a terrorist group, but as a state and an army, it will be defeated in the weeks ahead. The question is, what do we do with syria and iraq afterwards . There is a general problem of chaos, particularly in syria. There is the problem of iran and its surrogates operating in this region, of great concern to many of us. And in turkey, there is the problem of the ypg and the political and military wings of the pkk. Essentially, people in america know this, but because this is y against isisl and isis remains a priority, the United States is going to continue to work with the ypg, the pyd and the Syrian Democratic forces, but we know who arrive most of the fighting kurdishhich is the military. That problem will remain for some time. What will change it, however, at least on the margins is first of all, after isis is finished, the United States and turkey are going to be sitting, and to some degree with this agreement, jordan and israel, will be sitting on a considerable amount that had been well defended his anybody would try to push into it. Who,ng with local forces however disorganized and at each others throats, none of whom want to go back under president inad and the syrian regime, an environment where the entire region is concerned about iran building on the defeat of isis in iraq and syria to expand its hold of the middle east, that will be the big question. I would like to say this is where the United States is going to be, there will have to be some kind of coordination. All it can say is nobody knows yet where the United States quite is on this because it is a difficult problem. Around before, we were successful in the iran war and pushing it back, we slipped into iraq in 1983, we were not successful in beirut or in a political military campaign in 2011 to stay in iraq. Our own success with iran is mixed. This will be the key geopolitical issue that we will have with turkey. It will be affected by domestic results, domestic situation in turkey to the extent it will get worse. It will be affected by the gulen situation and the why pc ypg question. What do we do in iraq and syria with the iranian threat in total disorganization of the region . Thank you. I will lead you to fix that mess. Thank you. I will ask questions after the panel, but i have a simple question. For most ordinary people in somehow [indiscernible] in july the 15th field coup failed coup. What should the u. S. Have done everly done differently . What couldve been done better . Turkeye is a belief in powersas a very great versus the rest worldview, inserts and the schools, it is what i have experienced there. My worldview is not all that different from that, but it particularly sees that great powers do not like competition. Turkeys competition, so therefore ever since Woodrow Wilson advocated an independent kurdistan, and never heard an american other than those who served in turkey who knows that fact, and i have never heard a turk does not know that fact. There is a general feeling of suspicion that United States is always trying to clip turkeys wings, to deny them a place in the sun. Turkey is not the only country that thinks this way. Putin famously believes the greatest disaster of the 20th century was the collapse of the soviet union. Even the germans, who in many respects have learned from 1933 through 1945, often feel their historic and the troll role is inhibited by the United States. It is a normal feeling. You have to try deadly hard try it doubly hard to react to it. The Obama Administration was a few hours slow and adjectives response,immediate immediate responses are imported in diplomacy. Putin got it more right than we did, and that is embarrassing. So i think that were just going to have to live with that. It deepens the suspicion that was there long before this administration and long before the turkish president. Thank you very much. Our second speaker will try to get into the backgrounds of the Current Situation in turkey, before the coup. Tell us that nature of the discussions in that area. Thank you very much. Tost of all, i would like give my special thanks to the organizers for making me part of this important event today. After the especially july 15 coup attempt, so many articles were written in media circles and academic circles, wondering about what would be the main quarters of turkish Foreign Policy, the conduct the conduct in the aftermath. This was a domestic disaster. Of course it had enormous effect in the determination of the main quarters of turkish policy, but that is not the only factor that determined the outcome. We need to look at the geopolitical conditions and the realized in the region as turkey as global polarization we were witnessing in the last few years. And in this regard, we know that regarding especially parties of conduct a foreign this was the time that was mostly labeled or described by the criticizing. In the six years of civil war other donations that been made by turkey. Turkey has tried to have especially after the coup, to replace as has been wise,ned, educational they were trying to do. Unions how the education came to the floor to the fore. She is trying to affect cultural and business life. How many minutes you have . Just about finished, maybe. I will stop here. I will let my colleagues follow up to it thank you for your patience. So, [indiscernible] do you think the july 15 to had a strong or influential role in turkeys change of grown strategy, especially with relations with or did it just accelerate the process . Allies, asds on our well. Turkey is living in a difficult situation, neighboring with a not a country, superpower, maybe of yesterday, has power. , who the situation depending on importing energy mostly from and thes a factor relations between the two. In , there is no change [indiscernible] this is their coup. Grown ajuly 16 two has little uneasiness, especially on behalf of turkish people. Act re expecting expecting to act very quickly to make the position that they are fighting with turkish demands for democracy. [indiscernible] by losing their lives or wounding themselves. As i said, there is not much change in terms of the main quarters of Foreign Policy, but ,ou need to reassess yourself being in the troubled region, you need to balance your relations all the time. It depends on how your neighboring countries, big and small ones are acting, so it is yournormal to reassess situation. Thank you very much. [indiscernible] we usually dont see what is going on in turkey in the war environment. How does it look from washington, d. C. In comparison what isher cases the direction of turkey . I would say, there are really no other cases to which this can be compared. Suis generis for sure. Tld like to think hank the organizers at the oneyear event for a very one Year Anniversary for a very important event. I was new at my job at the department of state. I should point out to my have their permission to be here, but i am not speaking for them, i am speaking for myself as someone who is study turkish politics for about 20 years. Im a military member and an military advisor at the department of state. I have some ability to see both of the state into defense perspective on what happened. I had just started this job when this happened. I came in on the fifth, and then the 15th the coup attempt took place. Sometimes i do feel, it in this relationship there is a lot of what amounts to being a marriage counselor. A littleave to explain bit about the american system and reactions to our friends in turkey. , maybe, ase, i think little more so even then the ambassador, i totally understand why we work slow to respond to that. The event that happened on the 15th of july, to understand that for an american, and very few of us Pay Attention to International Relations on a continuous basis, as a country, that is true, and even those that do typically do not follow one country, we follow a region. I follow the middle east in some countries outside of it. I spent a lot of time thinking about turkey. Even those of us who know about even those of us who know about turkey a little bit had a hard time following the dynamics that led up to this. It requires first of all the you understand the struggle between akp and its former allies. How that played out in accordance with the judiciary in business and military and other places. It requires that you understand the factional struggle evolved within the Turkish Military and other securities forces over a fouryear. It requires you understand a little about the dynamics of the syrian war and how that affected both governments, the u. S. And syria, and how bad and 10th the relations got by the time we were in last summers atmosphere. It requires an understanding of in what haskages, been described earlier as a mop youlike cold. Let me say this, for americans here who have had some experience with the movement, they had very active outreach, and for all i know, still do, trips that they sponsored for people to travel they for many years did support work for turkish diplomacy by introducing people to turkish culture and folklore and things like this. This is a very benign face of that organization. If you believe it is a Multinational Organization that a social component, a business component and everybody in the organization knows about. This struggle between the movement and the turkish before the turkish government, the military, how much harder is it for americans who do not follow this to understand this. Especially with the face they have seen of this organization is a fairly benign one. You have to understand all these things to have reacted in time, and i will be the first to admit this. Coupe month before the attempt, there were some newspaper articles starting to come out and people in the u. S. Were saying, the Turkish Military is unhappy. There might be a coup. I was one of those who said it is impossible. I will stick by that. I like the explanation that this was not necessarily a military coup, this was a civilian coup played out within the military. Think it wasd not possible that the military and the top down, unitary way the Turkish Military coups happened before, that would not happen, because civilian control of the military has been strengthened so much in the preceding decade. As someone who follows turkey a lot still unable to predict Something Like this, you have to give us the benefit of the doubt that the shock factor within the u. S. Government and the public and bewilderment factor were very high. Here,oing to generalize and say in the ensuing year since the coup, there is still a lack of detailed understanding. Most of the sources, we talked a little about the documents for the Parliamentary Commission that look at this. A lot of the Good Research that has been done on getting pretty what actually happened that day, most of it is in turkish. There is not been a lot of good indepth pieces that explain the mechanics of the coup attempt. Frankly, most americans are left with a choice of three positions. The three positions they take, the first one is, we do not like erdogan. The third is, maybe we do not understand all of it, but we clearly understand a little bit of what happened. That is the most important and most promising line of thought and inquiry. I hope more people take that. For me, the two conclusions that stand out from the coup is, first of all, understanding the to an unprecedented level, there was a factional war than the Turkish Military. Even for those in the United States who are not willing to gulen himself knew and designed the whole thing, they have to see the relationships between the faction at the center of this coup and that movement. That should help to take some of the energy out of the suspicion that somehow, this was really done and manufactured to be instrumental allies. Last,ot been instrumental and i am on the side of those who say the quicker the investigations and punishments can be done and gotten past, and the quicker Something Like normal politics can return for turkey, the better it will be for the bilateral relation. But it will help our views and support for that process to come to that understanding. Was a real factional war within the Turkish Military. One of the things i want to talk about, as someone who has, over the course of nearly 30 years, served on several occasions with the Turkish Military, is to address the military and security aspects of what came after the coup. The were many voices in the u. S. Who said, the Turkish Military is finished, crippled, it cannot be relied upon. It lost too many pilots, too many generals. It cannot be a successful