Public servant, along with these other television providers, giving you a front receipt to democracy seat to democracy. The cia director discusses Global Security challenges at 2023 Aspen Security Forum in relation to russias invasion of ukraine. He believes ukraine will make advances. Director burns was interviewed by mary louise kelly. Ms. Kelly bill burns. Good to see you. Welcome back to aspen. Dir. Burns it is nice to be with you and nice to be back at aspen. Ms. Kelly are you ready . Russia. Just happened. When you were watching events saturday, june 24, what was your understanding of what was unfolding . Dir. Burns i have seen, over the last three decades, since the end of the cold war, a lot of fascinating episodes in russia, but nothing more than fascinating as for goshens mutiny which was the most direct assault in putins 23 years in power. I think in many ways it exposed some of the significant weaknesses in the system that putin has built. Weaknesses that had been laid bare by the deeply destructive war that putin launched in ukraine what was remarkable which is almost a month ago today after the mutiny was launched was the way in which putin felt compelled to do a deal with his former what was equally remarkable, if you look back at the 36 hours that proceeded the deal proceeded the deal, it began a month ago today and the morning of russian time, with a 30 minute video that prizoghin put on telegram, which is a channel that more than a third of the russian population is active on. In that video, it was the most scathing indictment of putins rationale for war, the conduct of the war, of the corruption at the core of putins regime that i have heard from a russian or nonrussian. It was bitterly critical of the conduct of the war by the Russian Military leadership, by the defense minister and the general, the chief of military staff. It took head on putins rationale for war, it was built on lies that there was no imminent threat to the russian homeland or people, from ukraine, or nato. It was scathing in its description of the corruption with which animates the russian elite today, which is ironic given the fact that prizoghin himself had profited as much as anyone from the corruption. It was remarkable to see. What was equally remarkable was what transpired in those 36 hours after the video. Ms. Kelly you called it a mutiny, was it an attempted coup . Do we know what prizoghin was trying to do . Dir. Burns we President Biden put it distinctly, when he said we new things ahead of time. I will not go into more detail. Prizoghin was making some of this up as he went along. Clearly, his main targets, a lot of this had been hiding in plain sight, he had been scathing in his public criticism of both of them. It came as no surprise when he decided to take action. Ms. Kelly how wounded is putin . Dir. Burns i think, if you think about the comment i made before about exposing the weaknesses in putin systems, what i meant is that putin in many ways has constructed his image, which has been carefully cultivated and his grip on power around the notion an image that he is the arbiter of order in russia. What has that meant with the wider russian public is a social contract in which his message is you stay out of politics, it is my business. What i will offer in return is rising standards of living and i will not get into your personal lives. With russia it has been a social contract, you follow my lead in politics. What i will ensure and return is protection from external threats, from one another, and also that everyone gets a feed at the trough, everyone gets to share in the spoils in a deeply corrupt system. What i have seen in those 36 hours as the mutiny was unfolding, you have the spectacle of the wagner forces, prizoghins mercenaries, is they have seemed unopposed in a city in russia, also the military quarters, the russian command in the ukraine, seized control of that significant city. Over the following day, get two thirds of the way up the road to moscow as well. As you think of those two social contract, what was going to the minds of a lot of russians and what we saw was the Russian Security services, russias decisionmakers which were adrift for those 36 hours. For a lot of russians watching this, get used to the image of putin is the arbiter of order, the question is, does the emperor have no clothes, or at least why does it take so long for him to get dressed . For the elite, what it resurrected was some deeper questions which, again, you have seen circulate within the Russian Elites since the war in the ukraine began, asking questions about putins judgment, about his relative detachment from events, and about his indecisiveness. Ms. Kelly are you saying ph fishers . Were sink deep cracks. Dir. Burns you are seeing signs of weaknesses in the system. I think those weaknesses have been exposed by prizoghins mutiny. Even more deeply, they have been exposed by putins misjudgment since he launched the invasion. Theres a relationship between the battleground in ukraine and what is going on inside of russia, in the sense that if and when the ukrainians make further advances on the battlefield, what that will do is cause more russians in the elite and outside of the elite to Pay Attention to prizoghins critique of the war. Thats where putin is trying to buy time. As he considers what to do with wagner and prizoghin himself. Putin, in my experience, he keeps the image that he is overreacting to things. He is trying to settle things. He will try to separate prizoghin from what is of value to putin in wagner. They have borne the brunt of the fighting in bakhmut, suffered the casualties there. 87 of the wagner forces were residents of russian penal colonies. They are useful to putin in africa, libya and syria. What he will try to do a separate prizoghin and undercut him, but preserve what is of value to him. Ms. Kelly President Biden recently said of prizoghin, if i were he, i would be careful what i ate. He also said we are not sure where he is. Do you know where he is . You saw the video that emerged that showed him in belarus, is that real . Dir. Burns he has moved around a bit. He has been in minsk. Im not sure he plans to retire in the suburbs in minsk. But he spent time in russia as well. What we are seeing is a complicated dance between prizoghin putin and putin. Putin is someone who thinks that revenge is a dish best served cold. He will try to settle the situation as best he can. In my experience, putin is the apostle of payback. Ill be surprised if prizoghin escapes for the retribution for this. In that sense, the president s right, if i was prizoghin, i would hire a food taster. Ms. Kelly how much freedom of movement does the general have . Dir. Burns i dont think a lot right now. [laughter] i dont think he enjoys a lot of freedom right now. Ms. Kelly the cia has taken the opportunity to make your first video post telegram to let brave russians know how to contact us safely on the dark web. Have they . Dir. Burns we had 2. 5 million views of that telegram video in the first week it was on. The truth is, there is a lot of defection in russia in the elite and outside of russia. Were not wasting any opportunity to try to take advantage of it. Ms. Kelly theyre also trying to recruit, is there a fair friendly rivalry . Dir. Burns yeah. The same objective right now. Ms. Kelly is part of the objective whether that leads to useful intelligence streams for you to make putin look over his shoulder, uneasy about who he can trust . Dir. Burns i think putin is a bit uneasy, as he looks over his shoulder, that is true. The debate that goes on within the russian elite right now. It would be crazy for us not to take advantage of what is a once in a generation opportunity, for the human Intelligence Service to take advantage of that. Ms. Kelly you are just in ukraine, how is the big counter offensive going . Dir. Burns it was a regular travel to ukraine, over the course of the last 18 months. It was a reflection of the significance that the president , everyone, the u. S. Government, attaches to hours or for what has been a courageous and tenacious ukrainian effort to fight back against putin and russia. Putin was fond of saying ukraine is not a real country. Real countries fight back. That is just what president zelenskyy and my intelligence counterparts have done. I dont think it should come as a surprise to anyone that the counteroffensive is a hard slog. Offenses harder than defense. The russians have had months to prepare not only fixed defenses in separation, zachary asia. I am an optimist that we are able to acquire and develop. That the ukrainians will be able to make advances. It is easy to forget that behind those considerable fixed defenses that the russians have built in southern ukraine in zaporizhzhia. There are structural weaknesses on the russian side and the disarray we were talking about and the political and end. It will be a tough slog. We will do everything we can as an Intelligence Agency to provide the intelligence support, ensuring it will help the ukrainians make progress. Ms. Kelly one thing that feels important to ask about. We seem to be talking about it less, less in the news, the possibility of a Nuclear Weapon being introduced in the war zone. Last year, you met with your russian counterpart. You have described that your orders were from President Biden to make very clear what the consequences would be if russia went down that path. President biden about the possibility was real enough that he dispatched cia agency to make sure did not happen. Are you less worried about that . Dir. Burns first, the nuclear say ford idling that putin has engaged in is a responsible. It is not something we can take lightly. We do not see any concrete preparations for the potential use of Nuclear Weapons. We have made clear in that conversation with sergey naryshkin, and through other channels that the depth the depth of our concern. It is important that president xi has spoken out about it as well, his voice is one that is difficult for the kremlin to avoid. We monitor it carefully. We do not see signs of preparations for nuclear use. Ms. Kelly how much more instability has been introduced to have russia pull out of the grain deal and increasingly expanding its attacks on the black sea . Dir. Burns it is deeply troubling first for ukrainians, what putin is trying to do is wreck the ukrainian economy and read havoc on wreak havoc on ukrainian citizens. It does damage on the most vulnerable societies, africa and the middle east, who depend on the green shipments. Over the last several days, putin has made an effort, its about three nights in a row of intensive attacks in other port cities against grain storage facilities. As the white house made clear earlier today, we see some very concerning signs of russia considering the full slide operations, that we highlighted in the runup to the war. Looking at ways to which they may make it to shipping in the black sea and blame it on ukrainians. Ms. Kelly why is iran arming russia . Dir. Burns i think the Defense Partnership between russia and iran is a useful two way street. Ms. Kelly what is iran getting . Dir. Burns we have seen signs of the russians russian technicians working on the Space Launch Program in iran. Weve seen discussion of the possibility of the russians providing combat aircraft to iran, which expands the threat from the innocent ukrainian civilians. I have seen this on my own visit to kyiv, 136 is and iranian trolls have been used against weapons have been used against ukrainians. It increases threats to our friends in the region as well. Its a twoway street. Thats what is most troubling about the Defense Partnership. Ms. Kelly speaking of cracks, speaking of fissures, your counterpart at mi six gave an interview in which he suggested that the drones are causing in turner internal turmoil in iraq. I rocks irans decision to supply russia has caused problems in tehran. Dir. Burns i will not add to what richard said in terms of the intelligence we collected of the iranian leadership. We have seen signs, where iranian leadership has hesitated about supplying Ballistic Missiles to russians, which was also on their wish list as well, partly because they are concerned, not just about our reaction but European Reaction as well. Dir. Burns ms. Kelly china, president xi has instructed his countrys military to be ready to invade taiwan by 2027. Whats your assessment of whether he will . Dir. Burns i think its been discussed publicly a lot, the instruction to be ready by 2027 means just that. It means to be ready. It does not mean conflict is inevitable. Ms. Kelly has he made up his mind . Dir. Burns i am not sure that he has. What it means that president xi and the Peoples LiberationArmy Leadership have doubts about whether they could pull off a successful fullscale invasion of taiwan at acceptable cost to them. No foreign leader has paid more attention to putins experience in ukraine then xi has. That has reinforced some of the doubts too. Not only in the way, an objectively smaller military has had incredible success in fighting back with a great deal of motivation against a bigger military, but also some of the flaws in russian weapon systems. The fact that i think president putin and president xi underestimated the speed with which President Biden would put together a Strong Coalition and some of ukraine, the solidarity in ukraine, the solidarity of the west, all of that, gives pause to the chinese leadership. I dont think any of us underestimate president xis commitment to try to eventually control taiwan. Ms. Kelly do you have a sense of what would trigger it . What would the redlines be . Dir. Burns there is a lot of things, given the state of relations that could trigger that kind of movement. Today, i think, our effort is a government, this is a policy issue not an intelligence one is to do everything we can under the taiwan relations act to help taiwan defend itself, but also to make clear in policy channels at the same time that we are not interested in changing the status quo. We are across the taiwan state. We oppose any unilateral efforts to change that. We dont support chinese independence. We made it clear that we would oppose any use of force by the peoples republic of china to try to alter that status quo. Ms. Kelly if china were to make a decision to invade, would you have the same heads up from intelligence sources you did when putin made up his mind to invade ukraine . Dir. Burns that is something we work hard at. Im proud of the record of cia, and the Intelligence Community in providing credible and accurate warning on putins plans to invade ukraine. That is why the president sent me to moscow in november of 21, months before the war to layout what was an unusual step what we knew about his plans and what the consequences would be. We worked very hard as an agency, with all our partners in the Intelligence Community to put ourselves in a stronger position to advise the president and policymakers, if the day ever comes, of what we see being planned. Ms. Kelly i will push you on this. A decade ago, the cia rolled up china rolled off a lot of cia operations in china, a dozen or more cia sources were arrested or worse, executed. Have you rebuilt . Dir. Burns we have made progress. We are working very hard, to ensure that we have a strong human intelligence capability to complement what we can acquire through other methods. Ms. Kelly on the cyber front, the recent chinese hack of u. S. Government accounts, email accounts, microsoft says it went undetected for months. Was this chinese intelligence . Dir. Burns i would say several things. First day was the u. S. Government, not the white house that made clear that first detected those hacks, informed microsoft, which acted very efficiently in response to that. Microsoft has attributed this to china. We dont have any reason to doubt that. Ms. Kelly officially sanctioned, was this chinese intelligence . Dir. Burns i cant go beyond what i just said. Ms. Kelly within the realm of what is normal, the chinese will try to spy on the u. S. , or did you see it as an escalation . Dir. Burns i think the effort is not just the peoples republic of china, russia, iran, north korea anothers, to hack u. S. Symptoms systems has been going on for years, it is not new, but it is something we take seriously. The cias role is to collect all the intelligence we can and support the department of homeland security, the fbi and who are properly focused on protecting the United States domestic issues. Why do u. S. Government accounts keep getting hacked . All i can do is speak for the cia. We work very hard to protect accounts there and we work very hard with other agencies, plus domestic and other intelligence agencies, to ensure that we are not only sharp and focused on the issues, but sharing the intelligence we can acquire to help us not only better protect the u. S. Government unclassified accounts, in the case of the most recent hack, but also trying to do all we can to strengthen our cybersecurity. Ms. Kelly how are you feeling about Election Security in 2024 . Dir. Burns it is something we take seriously. Dir. Burns i dont doubt the determination of our adversaries to create problems in our election processes. The interagency coordination on those issues is a lot stronger than it was in 2016, even 2020. Ms. Kelly are you seeing red warning lights like we should have . Dir. Burns we are trying to anticipate those concerns right now so that we dont get to the point of red warning lights. We have organized ourselves with a new Mission Center which is one of the organizational building blocks, a dozen or so of them at cia, focused on a range of issues. I think helps us be a better partner for other u. S. Government agencies. Ms. Kelly i know you dont do politics. I know the cias mission is foreign focused, foreign threats. I wonder if the line feels blurry some days. What is the cias role if the greatest threat to our security is domestic politics . Dir. Burns we are a far we are a foreign agency, not domestic. We have tried to organize ourselves in a way where we can contribute to the better interagency coordination. The truth is, and who was here today exp