Who will also join those in you also had to have a very benign medical procedure. If you are watching, get well. Sorry you cannot be with us. With that, we have until 11 30 to discuss a not exactly minor issue in this entire scenario that we are facing until the end of what you are why are you looking at me in horror . Fascination, not horror, with our topic. I know. With you three on the panel, especially you, this panel will run itself, but i will attempt to impose a minimum of discipline. You can all watch me fail if i do that. What i will do is, let me first introduce our panelists. Dr. Alina polyakova, a former colleague at brookings, to run another institution. She is the president and ceo of the center for european policy analysis which under her leadership she has been doing absolutely terrific work. Matthew is a journalist and senior fellow of the social cultural and constitutional studies at the American Enterprise institute. We are grateful to have you here. We were joking that we have brookings here, then carnegie, then across the road, they are moving to another part of town. Who knows why . But we are not in each others houses enough. I think we need to do more of that. This is an attempt to keep that going. I also just read in your wikipedia bio, you have been sanctioned by russia. I am. I am curious, alina, you must be sanction as well . Have i managed no . I was on the list of 500 names that was announced earlier this year. I was proud to be on that list. I also like the fact that my name appeared ahead of barack obamas. [laughter] there was a nice way of ranking it. I am not sure why youre not sanctioned alina. After todays panel, it is inevitable, they will issue an update. All right, finally i have next to me, the irrepressible norman, attorney, author. I ripped this out of the visitors pamphlet. I have been meaning to get his book. I will pay for it. You may have it. [laughter] i will pay for it anyway. I hate just ripping a colleagues book. Most importantly, norm is not just a u. S. A former u. S. Ambassador to prague. He is highly active in the world of combating corruption and disinformation, as is alina with her work. We have a terrific panel. Norm is also the inspiration for a character in a movie, in the wes anderson, Budapest Hotel movie. That doesnt happen very often. My name is constance stelzenmuller. I run the center. We want to talk about the nexus between politics and policy. Were running into a series of key elections in europe and america, which we are already seeing constraining the foreign policy, Foreign Security policy space. And these are elections in poland and the european elections, next spring, finally the u. S. Elections in november next year. And a couple of german state elections, two in october as well. In three eastern states, or the alternative for germany is trending high. Just before the u. S. Election. We want to focus first on these elections. We also want to give some thought to the problems of governance, right . Of governance at a time of permanent disruptions, of seemingly intractable, unsolvable problems, problems that are not amenable to treaties. And see what these situations which put huge stress on policymakers and the public alike, on institutions and on markets. Where we can find any positive recommendations to make as to how to make governance more shock proof and a time of political upheaval. In a time of political upheaval. Let me start first with the elections. That is the approximate source of stress and shock right now, as we were seeing. I want to start with you alina. I think we are probably in agreement on this panel even if we think the hard left in our political spaces the silly stuff. They are not about to change the Constitutional Order, right . The challenge i will suggest, the challenge of the day is in our political faces across the transatlantic world is hellbent on rewriting our constitutional borders, that is what is viewed it is not just about culture wars. It is not just about economic inequality, it is about rewriting the rulebook of our orders. Since you have just been in europe and you have just been in poland do you want to give us an impression, what is your take about what is going on in europe perhaps with an emphasis on poland. Thank you for joining us. Dr. Polyakova i feel so honored to be back. You can get out, but you can never leave, the eagle said. Dr. Polyakova happy, im happy to be an example of that. I am very happy to go into this question but please dont hate me for wanting to make one short comment in relation to the debate that was on the last panel. I cannot help myself because there was a discussion about nato membership versus e. U. Membership for ukraine. I think it was maybe stephen who said nato membership is not a good idea. But, e. U. Membership would be. I just want to point out that the whole idea that somehow nato enlargement has anything to do with russias aggression against ukraine, just factually it is wrong. It was e. U. Membership and ukraines desire to join the eu not nato and not even to join but to have a freetrade agreement with the European Union in 2013 that actually started the revolution of dignity and then led to russias First Military invasion in the annexation of crimea and the donbas. This has nothing to do with nato. Support for nato was so low that the likelihood of ukraine joining was zero until russia annexed crimea. I think when we are having this heated debate because were talking about human lives, that was just in the ukraine as well, we have to be careful about how we revise history to make convenient arguments. Can i do a two finger agreement . We are that it is ok. I just published an analysis at brookings gmf analysis of the role that supports her insight of the role of corruption in the latest putin aggression and the response to the crackdown of the oligarchs which, if you look at the regional sources was a clear economic motivation that has nothing whatsoever to do with nato. Its another data point. I think it is overstated to say natos membership is completely unrelated, however the causal connection ms. Steizenmuller it doesnt have to be short. Mr. Continetti it was one runon sentence. Dr. Polyakova thank you for allowing that interjection. Those are important things. Because these are not just theoretical, geopolitical debates where having. There is people involved, agency involved, this is not a chessboard. We often like to have these geopolitical discussions as if it is a global chessboard, that the decisionmakers have no responsibility whatsoever for making big decisions. But those sitting in our capital are moving chess pieces around. That is not what this is. This is about people and their lives, and livelihood. It is about our vital u. S. National security at the end of the day. All that being said, you had a good framing of this panel. I think you are 100 right. There is a new aspect to the politics of the extreme right. Ive been studying this topic for many years, for better or worse. Weve had a pattern in europe for decades, where we have seen the emergence of far right nationalist, popular serving, right Political Parties since the 1970s. It feels to us that this is all fresh and new happening at the same time. But, this has been a slow burning process that is coming to light and starting to affect the governance of our democracy in profound ways. This antiinstitutionalism, the profound desire to dismantle Democratic Institutions from within is a new thing that we have not seen before in such a concrete manner. There was authoritarianism as part of far right Political Parties agendas. But it was quite different. Now, the danger is that we are seeing in places like hungary ms. Steizenmuller it is the original model is in it . Dr. Polyakova exactly. Poland is different. Poland is not hungry. Many of these countries we are seeing democratic rules being revised for the purpose of the undoing of democracy. This is a great irony. I think that is something for us to be concerned about. The pattern we see in the u. S. That plays out differently because we have a twoparty system here. But it is one and the same. Its similar arguments. The tools, norm and i wrote a report several years ago about how authoritarianism learn from each other. And the last report we did together was the brookings report call the democracy playbook. Its a strategy of how to push back against these tools that far right and authoritarian leaders use. To your point, youre right, we are in a new era in many ways. But it has been something we have not paid attention to for a long time. Ms. Steizenmuller that is the point i very much take. I want to push back on one question. Ive been trolling through the analyses of the hard right. It seems to me that there are two versions of the story. I i think, yes there is a terrifying rise of the hard right across the transatlantic space, the u. S. And europe, and traditional centerright parties are caving when faced with this onslaught. There is evidence for that point, including in my country, including last night, some of you perhaps who read this stuff as obsessively as i do, will know that the cdu, the liberals and the afd, all of the opposition voted together on a property transfer tax law against the governing red red green coalition. That was an astonishing thing at a time when we have elections coming up in two states, which should be issuing for conservatives. Arguably, the cdu is in a defensive position. There is another version of the story. Which is that all of these populists in europe have turned into post populists. The name that comes up most often is georgia milani it italy. They are showing to be proeuropean, and they are trying to play within the system, and within the rules, which of these is true . Dr. Polyakova i think both are true. Every country is slightly different, has a slightly different political environment. Poland, to go to your question, there are elections happening in a few weeks in poland. I looked at the recent polling. Whats interesting is the affect of the far right emergence. In most European Countries, they are not majority parties. The fda in german is not part of the coalition, they are gaining steam. The effect is always seen across most of western and northern europe, the affect is not that these parties take over and institute their agenda. Italy is a different category. But what they do do is basically push the entire political spectrum to the right. The centerright, what accounts for the profound collapse of the centerright in many European Countries . One of the factors is that they are trying to pander to the far right, trying to take up the agenda of the far right. As a result, they are losing voters. Nobody wants to vote for the copy they want to vote for the original. Were seeing the legitimizing of the far right agenda rather than being electorally succeeding and doing better than the far right. In poland, this is so profound. In poland we have an important election coming up. Some have called it the opposition, the central left opposition, specific platform, they have called it the most significant election since 1989. They are pulling far behind the ruling party, that gap is widening now. They are coopting antiimmigration rhetoric. They are coopting populism, the idea to double payments for children and families support. These are all on the agenda of the right. They have been there for some time. There losing support as they turn further and further to the right. This is the profound effect we have had. We have had weak coalitions. A shift to the right. Really a profound inability in many European Countries the governor. When you have ms. Steizenmuller we will also come to that point. I will just say, to your point of that not being unlikely to enter into coalition that is right. Forgive me if i exceed my role of moderator but, while many of the hard right parties in europe have been eating chalk, trying to pretend at the very least to be pragmatic. Some of them are finding the need to be pragmatic in the constraints of the Constitutional Order they cannot change quickly, the afd has radicalized. Its trending in eastern germany. The luck of this German Coalition government is that those eastern german state collections elections are not until next year. There are three elections in east germany. The afd is trending at 34 and 37 . What that means is if they any democratic government that was created against that kind of Political Force would have to be at least a three Way Coalition if not a fourWay Coalition, complicating the problems of governance, creating legitimacy problems, given they are faced with entrenched opposition. I will come to you matthew. Matthew, youve written this book, the american right, which i did not bring on my desk at home. But i recommend everyone reads. Describe to us and perhaps to all the european audience listening online, what these battle lines are, given the contention, you can correct or agree with me, that the most severe problem here is this desire to change the nature of the Constitutional Order. Mr. Continetti thank you for having me. Pleasure to be here. It was norman who said the longest journey in the world is from brooklyn to manhattan. The longest journey in the world is from ai to brookings. I want to take a step back. Your opening conversation was interesting. We go back seven years ago and we look at the emergence of National Populism around the world, we could have referred to something as the national international. Theres all these various National Populists parties, that seem to share a certain agenda responding to social change in their societies, they were all against International Institutions whether it was the eu, are skeptical of nato in the United States. They seemed to have a fawn view of vladimir putin. But to your point, it seems to me that now we have to disaggregate this nationalist international. She is not pis. None of them. He has his own unique set of problems. Its different than afd. Maybe she will be a slightly different be slightly different. Its important to take a step back and see how these movements are fracturing and diversion from each other very subtle in very subtle ways. On rulemaking, it is striking to me that the American National populist movement sees itself as defending the constitution of the United States. Its striking that even when they attempted to overturn the 2020 election, trump enlisted john eastman to figure out, well maybe there is a legal loophole that allows the Vice President to throughout the electoral vote. Even there they saw themselves as upholding a certain vision of what the constitution is. It seems to me in the american context, many of the structural changes, the rewriting of the rules that are being proposed are actually coming from the american left and Progressive Side of things, whether that is court enlargement, the addition of new states, whether that is abolishing the electoral college. Thats an wharton important distinction to keep in mind. Also to address your question, what is the state of play . The easiest way to understand the state of late in the Republican Party, today according to the average of holes, National Populists candidates currently hold about 84 of the republican electorate. Donald trumpx lead is up to 60 some of him fleet is up to 60 of the lead. Ron desantis is about 13 . Then Vivek Ramaswamy rounding out a 9 . The Republican Party is a different creature than it was when i arrived in washington, a generation ago. To end my remarks, i will say that it is not unusual for parties in america to go through these types of changes. In fact, one of the themes of my book to write is that the Republican Party and conservatism has gone through a sequence of development. Beginning of the 1920s. Calvin coolidge, republicanism, was different from robert taft. Robert taft republicanism was different than Barry Goldwater republicanism. Goldwaters republicanisms report republicanism was different than reagans. Donald trump has changed conservatism for the Republican Party whether we like it or not. I mostly dislike it. It cannot be denied. Ms. Steizenmuller let me perhaps come back on two points. One is i want to point out that while i agree with you, that maloney sound different today they have splintered hard right parties that are attacking them for having become to moderate, there is matteo in italy. The niece is also talking to a much harder position than her and is and so on. You have that everywhere in poland, the justice men, who have a much harder nationalist term than their own government. So, let me come back atyou at you. The last chapter of your book emphasizes the importance of the constitution as an ordering framework. Thats all we need to refer to to bring america back on course. I mean i applaud that, i wrote my thesis on american constitutional. I have immense respect for this document and for its vitality, despite his extraordinary head edge. I will say to you is that we are seeing that at this juncture people who are very deliberately, intentionally trying to rewrite the framers intent in ways that are specifically f known nationalist, right ethnona tionalist, and populist, that somehow negate foundational principles of the american constitution. Such as the separation and balance of powers. The protection of little puerile as him. Im thinking of the school of thought and the organizational movement. The book, the virtue of nationalism which in 2018 not only got a lot of prizes on the conservative side of the aisle, but was said to be the inspiration for pompeos famous speech in brussels, that you needed the union needed to be disbanded because it violated the rules of nationalism. There are rumors flying about the hard right organizing not just its own media houses, we know who they are, it is not yours. This is one of the other signs, and ordering a sorting