But squatting in a diner for internetwork is even harder. That is why we are providing lower income students access to affordable internet, so homework it can just be homework. Cox, connect to compete. Announcer cox, along with these other television provirs, giving you a front row seat to democracy. Announcer now to a conversation on how the outcome of todays midterm elections could affect congress and potential president ial candidates in 2024. Hosted by the German Marshall Fund this is about an hour. To remind our viewers the u. S. Goes to the polls on tuesday, november 8. Its always the first tuesday after the first monday in november. You might ask why november and that dayton its because its after the harvest and when most could go to the polls. Only 2 of americans are farmers but tradition is tradition. Every two years, all 435 seats are up for election in the house and about 20 of these house seats are contestable. Maybe half a dozen or more of the senate seats are contestable. The senate currently has 50 republicans and 50 democrats, so a shift of just one seat will change the balance of power in the senate and since the rules of the senate are the Vice President breaks all ties and shes a democrat, the democrats have to at least retain 50 seats to retain control of the senate. In the house, the democratic majority is razor thin. So a lot of even a half dozen or so seats would flip control of the house. With that as a background, lets start on the senate, which is more contestable. Jessica, a week out from the election, how are things looking in the half dozen closest Senate Contests . If you ask this in august, i would have had a very different answer. Thats when we saw a summer of hope for democrats, especially after the Dobbs Decision that brought the roe v. Wade question back to the states. We saw historically the party in power should lose seats, an average of two senate seats, about 20 or so house seats, but when you look at this and democrats had a map with three incumbents, particularly in nevada, georgia and arizona that biden when the states by less than three points, where we have seen his approval rates drop across the country, particularly in the swing states, that was problematic for some of these democrats in this type of cycle where it felt like it was shaping up to be in the spring, what gave democrats an option that kept them in the game were that they were open seats republicans were now having to defend and had not expected to or if the incumbent had run in pennsylvania or ohio, im not sure these would be on the table. Pennsylvania is now their best opportunity to flip a seat and we saw in pennsylvania, John Fetterman opening up a lead i think we lost i think we have lost jessicas audio and her video is frozen. Until we get to that, why dont we turn to bill. Given your past service in republican administrations, what do you expect . Will it be a landslide victory or more modest 12 to 25 seat victory for the republicans and more importantly, what do you expect republicans to do with their majority once they are in control of the house . First of all, its good to be with all of you. Ive been to many gmf conferences and meetings over the years. More exotic places and zoom but im happy to be here with everybody on zoom with my distinguished colleagues. Im a little less i think it is more up in the air than people think. The polling has gone both ways and people are kind of a herd mentality. The democrats did have an impressive surge, which is pretty unusual. The republicans had a predicable comeback. There are a lot of close races. If you look at the most recent polls, there are range of outcomes but i think it is more from zero to 25 or 30 seats 1015 to 40. But when you have a a lot of close races, they can go either way and they often go in one way. Thats to say races within one or 2 tend to topple one direction or another. But if you have conflicting many waves which we are seeing in many reasons, individual candidates matter a lot coming candidate Quality Matters a lot and health, as we have seen in pennsylvania made matter for a key senate seat. I think it is very much up in the air. Which if republicans win the house, which is likely, whats going to happen . Two quick points. People im very worried about Election Night and the next week or month. People say january 6 could never happen again and i hope it could never happen again but we have a lot of people running on the republican side who say these remote these elections are stolen and we have a lot of states that will count the early vote late and will be safe where in some places, big cities come in later and there will be chances for candidates who want to cause trouble to cause trouble. We have a whole infrastructure now dedicated to causing trouble. Its a nontrivial chunk of the Republican Party that approves of what trump did in 2020 and thinks that system is rigged and has a lot of voters revved up to think the system is rigged. I think observers here and abroad and i say this i wish i didnt have to say this, just need to be ready for a certain amount of turmoil, chaos, motivated chaos on november 8. I hope it doesnt happen. I think would be good for the country and good for the world if we had a very neat election where people could, as in the olden days when 99 of the candidates concede gracefully or there is an orderly recount and no one is mobilizing armed voters to go to state capitals and state legislators are not threatening to hold new elections and candidates are not threatening to recognize the results, but im afraid that could happen. Assuming there is a Republican House, i dont think policy changes much. They may not control the senate, president have a lot of authority. Foreign policy and i dont think republicans are united on these big issues to cause huge policy changes. I cant really think of an area where there would be major changes. Foreign policy would stay on the corset is on. Biden has republican support on ukraine. There could be noise that could alarm allies and i think thats unfortunate, but i dont see much of a big thing there. The economy is on whatever course it is on in the fed will do its thing. I just dont see serious legislation eating past. Its not going to get past the senate where most of it needs 60 votes and not signed by President Biden. From a policy point of view, if you think things are on a reasonably good course, which i tend to in the big picture policy areas, i think it will stay mostly on that course. I think the chaos will be on the political side coming not the policy side. The degree of performative screaming and yelling in the house, the impeachment and whether its attorney general garland or President Biden, the investigations of hunter biden, the heightened rhetoric, the unfortunate rhetoric that can lead to violence, we have seen recently. I thing its going to be a very ugly 2023, 24 edits not as if there is no one on the left who will be prompted by extremist rhetoric on the right, i think the idea we are going to have this ability or bipartisanship, i wish we did but i dont see much of that happening on house side. Final point, with nancy pelosi, mccarthy will be a weak leader if he is speaker. You have different parts of the conference that are not entirely wed to him and will pressure him. God knows what trump will say from the outside. If Kevin Mccarthy decides this is the schedule and trump weighs in, what does that look like the next day . That is not a normal situation. To be fair, put more mainstream republicans say im not going to go along with ukraine, thats irresponsible and then what happens . The degree we are used to aid nancy pelosirun house, it is not going to look like that. In the Democratic Party will not have nancy pelosi in charge. The Democratic Party has had nancy pelosi in charge for 18 years. Whatever the math is. What does that look like . There are capable people lined up to replace her. The degree of chaos, not in policy, which i think stays on course, but in politics in 2023 is going to be a little bit jarring. Great and i think your point about pelosis right. She ran day she ran a discipline caucus, which her counterparts in the rebellion party could not do for years. Given your writing on the senate, including your first book, the last great senate and your new mcconnell book and your service to the senate as a young man, how do you think mcconnell and the republicans will act if they win the senate, if it is 50 50 again, or if there is a minority . Thanks, bruce, its great to be with such a wonderful panel and to reach the gmf audience. I appreciate the opportunity. From my standpoint, the thesis of my book is Mitch Mcconnell and the Senate Republicans failed the country at a catastrophic level by not stopping Donald Trumps assault on our democracy on the one hand and using the opportunity instead to pursue their most important objectives, namely stacking the Supreme Court with a right wing majority and it was my hope a month or two ago, as jessica said when the political atmosphere seemed more positive for democrats, it was my hope the democrats would pick up two to four seats and weaken mcconnells hold on the country. To be honest, ive made the argument we have been living in Mitch Mcconnells america for 14 years. Hes been the most decisive political finger figure in terms of what would be done and what would not be done and that was before trump came along. Now, if we have a situation where most likely, the senate it might be 50 50 again, it might be 51 49, one way or the other, mcconnell will have a disproportionate amount of power whether hes in the majority or still the minority leader, but close to 50 50. What does that mean . Let me give you the optimistic scenario. Having achieved his overriding objective of stacking the Supreme Court, mcconnell, age 80, might have some incentive to finish his career on a more positive note, trying to be Something Like the senator and statesman he once thought he might be rather than simply a partisan. Its not totally impossible to me. He has been on Good Behavior this year, joining in some bipartisan legislative efforts on the one hand and strongly supporting President Biden and joining with him on the ukraine war and funding for the efforts to support ukraine. From a european standpoint, i think it is very important mcconnell, unlike trump, favors nato and despises putin. On those things, he may be pretty good. On the other hand, we have a situation where a Republican House and anything like close to a republican majority does mean the end of any biden legislative agenda. Biden had his struggles, but he got a lot of things done and he wont be able to do that with a Republican House. That is a concern. I love to think about mcconnell, who is the ultimate politician and very successful at what he does. I think he enjoys the situation where he will have a great deal of power. He loves the contrast between him and Kevin Mccarthy, who is a craven and weak, likely to be a craven and weak speaker, and mcconnell likes to distinguish himself from trump. He may ultimately conclude this is his moment to be more like the mentors and heroes he pretends to have. Kentuckys henry clay, the great compromise or, john germans cooper, and mike mansfield, the best of all senate leaders. A positive scenario, possible, but i would not count on it. More likely to me is his goal remains, his power and Republican Party power, he will begin immediately to think about what do we have to do to win the presidency in 2024 and despite the fact Mitch Mcconnell and others, but particularly Mitch Mcconnell would like Nothing Better than for donald trump to disappear, he hates donald trump. If the republicans choose to nominate donald trump again, you know Mitch Mcconnell will be for him. I want to add one postscript following up on bills point about Political Climate and violence. In europe, countries are struggling with challenging problems. If you look at what germany is going through in policy terms and how to deal with its Energy Future and manufacture, its a really difficult problem. But in our country, we have the overlay of political madness that is divided and consuming the country at the moment. From a european standpoint, you have to worry about the condition of american democracy. If you had told me in the last 18 months or 20 months that joe biden would become president , we would get through most of the serious part of the covid challenge, we would have an insurrection, and despite all that, we would be more divided than ever, i would not have believed it. So the future of american democracy and its condition is still the central challenge Going Forward. On that note and to follow up, i want to pose a question to jessica. Given your work covering statelevel politics, how do you think it may play out at the state level in terms of how elections are run in the future and what this may mean for american democracy and to add data points to what ira and bill have raised, a cbs news Battleground Tracker poll released this weekend shows three quarters of republicans, registered voters say citizens should be allowed to challenge officials as they count the boat count the vote, and two thirds of republicans say the private citizens should be allowed to patrol polling places and ballot boxes. For those who have not been following this closely, a trump appointed judge in arizona said they can also carry guns as they patrol these ballot spots. So the potential for things getting out of hand is even greater. Jessica, what do you think about these races for secretary of state and american states where the secretary of state is not a Foreign Affairs person, hes the guy or woman who runs elections. The governor races and how that may affect how elections are run in certain states in the future. I want to hop back and finish my thoughts and site cut out. From where we see things now, whereas pennsylvania and arizona, we had at lean democratic about a month ago, we have moved back into the tossup column. Im particularly looking at the until dania race and whether federmans debate performance raised concerns about his fitness for office. We saw that in at least one day of tracking in a poll that came out today. I think at this point, the best outcome democrats can hope for is staying a 50 50 senate. I thought a month ago 5149 could happen. Even a month ago, republicans were saying a month were saying to would be excellent. Im not fencing a major shift. I think republicans could have a slight edge at this point with some of the pulling and things we are seeing coming out. To go to the states, governors get short shrift in midterm elections but we have lost jessica again. I will take this time say to our viewers that we are happy to have you pose questions and ask them. Put your questions in the chat function so we can sort through them and post them to our speakers. Jessica is back. Im not sure whats going on with our internet this morning. People sauntering covid how important governors are and during the 2020 election, how important they are, making decisions whether or not to overturn elections. In georgia, brian kemp stood up to trump and refused to overturn the election, faced trumps kryptonite and one that overwhelmingly and he is on pace for reelection against Stacey Abrams and that one him some crossover support for handling that this way. The same states challenged last time, arizona is going to be a key one there. A strong possibility that kari lake, who has been a conspiracy theorist, election denier and former tv news reporter, i would put a pinky on the scale for her. You could see some of those election deniers down the ballot winning as well. Nevada is another place where we could see that. Nevada, republicans might have a slight edge there. We see republicans voting on election day. Maybe you could say so our viewers in europe understand this better, what could a potential election deniers become secretary of state in whatever state, what might that imply . How could they affect how elections are run two years from now . If trump comes back and says these elections are fraudulent, you can have them try to overturn the results depending on where the state legislature is. There are still different rules in every state, but trump would have allies were the governor stood up to him as well as the secretary of state down ballot was a democrat but even republicans would uphold this line and im not sure we are going to see the same thing if these republican candidates win. Wisconsin is another state, closely spit closely split. The republican nominee there has at times said election was not valid and he has gone back and forth. The bright spot for democrats is pennsylvania. The secretary of state is appointed by the governor but josh shapiro is running away with that race over a complete election deniers who is probably one of the worst candidates running this cycle. So there more of a comfort shapiro will win and appoint someone that would have election integrity. Georgia, with republicans winning, Brad Raffensperger is on path to win easily. Its not just all republicans. You have places in michigan, i think democrats are going to win there. But i would keep an i would keep an eye on arizona, nevada and wisconsin. I agree and jessica will be back in a minute. I think its called the independent legislatures theory which is basically that if you read the constitution literally, it says state legislatures get to determine who are the electors in the electoral college, it does not mention one the majority of the vote. There has been a tradition of 100 years of that being the case. If you go to the u. S.