Intelligence director and former congresswoman who served as under secretary of state in the obama administration. Thistlantic counsel hosted event. Tookay, i think were going begin. The director of forsyth strategy and risk initiatives here at the Atlantic Council. Its my pleasure to host today a session on question that is on everybodys mind. Its whats next after trumps days. Hundred were at day 102. Already, i think, had a lot of interesting things happen the first 101 days. A harder stance against immigrants coming in the with allies and partners in asia, europe and america. Hes also taken a stronger stance and obviously he also launched his first attack in syria against weapons. Se of chemical he has run into trouble with his agenda. Continues to be plagued by his with russia. Ties in addition, many government positions remain unfilled signal that nominees are coming. Environment trump has walked into is as tough as the u. S. Een for how its diffusing away from the and south. St theres dischord in the western so calledeen globalists and so called populist. In u. S. Theres division between political, racial and ethnic lines. As it is now. Its unfair to grade any early into his tenure. We can begin talking about it as already is. Have today an Incredible Group of incredible analysts that are moderator, hudson, a Foreign Policy reporter, buzz feed news will the discussion. Before i turn the floor over to noteand his panel, please that we are live tweeting this acscocroff. Hope you and the audience follow along. Is on the record. Its being filled by cspan. My thanks to the panelist for coming together. Look forward to hearing what everybody has to say. Ll allow for some final time for questions. On the a short video first 100 days which well show first and then the panelist will follow. Started. And lets get [video] america first. Protests and backlash from plan. Ent Trumps Energy i have recused myself. We just fired 59 missiles to iraq to syria. Yes. There is an fbi investigation the Trump Campaign possible take take ties to r. Putting an end to the war on coal. Theirlies are not paying fair share. Obsolete. Nger that was terrific value there. Thank you for the introduction. John hudson correspondent with buzz feed news. Delighted to be here to talk days. Trumps hundred sound like we need more volume. You hear me . Today is former director of National Intelligence of u. S. Ambassador and unitediraq nations. Chair of thece council. Manual, director of Harvard CenterFord International affairs. In preparation for this topic senator john mccain last week about his views on the days. 100 saying, he upbeat couldnt pick a better team of National Security advisors. Obviously someone who was herly critical of this christian. Administration. It was the turn around. It was the administration that went from saying china is the currency manipulatetor to its not. Is obsolete and its not. Not war at Syrian Government and were shooting these missiles at the Syrian Government. The Republican Party establishment captures the Trump Administration. The blog member of celebrate [indiscernible] i dont know whether its the has capturedrty it. The reality has captured in it. Captures him progressively for more so everyday. I think this is part of the of theg curve presidency. In past presidencies, not unsimilar phenomenon. People come in office with their own notion. What theyre going to what theyre going to deal with. They get temper this is important in the case of particularly important. Their encounters and meetings and discussions and with their peers on the international scene. Discussionssnt had different leaders of continents. Now he has such conversations everyday. His calendar in the coming weeks and months, hes going to have a very heavy schedule. I promise you that will leave to event more Foreign Policy. What about the extra latitude he seem to be giving to the pentagon. It seem like the Defense Department has wider latitude to wars in iraq and afghanistan especially with the ab. H moab for people concerned about the pentagon. Is that something to be concerned about . You mean byure what extra latitude. We dont have the Expeditionary Forces in iraq or afghanistan at the moment. Very talking about moderate presence. Forces. D have those they bolster confidence and in localities in the relationship of the United States. Its essentialal good thing. Latitude, april 17, 1961, john f. Kennedy conducted the invasion. That for this Foreign Policy success . Theow are you looking at first 100 days . Especially when it comes to the houses relationship or hands off approach to the pentagon . Trying to avoid it. Think many of us were shocked about what happened on november 8th. After we got out of bed, we try to we were going to do our best to be optimistic. Hearts broken. As the administration came in, theas so obvious that administration had done very planning. Really had not the banders of had tothat other people get cabinet people nominated. Paperwork have been done. Then for me, the ethics issues i expected that the norm, enormity of being president and the idea of taking on the mantle of being the leader of the free world would sober up mr. Trump he will begin to do the would. Hat we expected he divest himself of assets he a blind trust. Ties family members running trump empire, off to the side and not in the white house or west wing. Many of usoment on, had to mark to mark everyday reality of how this was not going to be a conventional president. The unconvention believety of donald trump as a candidate will continue into the white house. There were things that we gotten to expect over time from different administrations, democrat and republicans, ways started to look. From the National Security perspective, i can say that he did make a good decision in picking general mattis. Choicerthat his second National Security advisor is a good choice. The fact that most of the buildings in the government, state department for example, bomb hite a new trump it. The building is there but there are no people. Gives you pause. Are they going to get anything done . My old spot, doesnt have anybody really there. You not have people there . Some of the best people in the world on wmd. Issues like north korea simmering. You think somebody would say, go find those people. Situationm in the room now. I just dont think theres any on. Lar order going when you dont have people secretary position, not proliferation under secretary were at the state department, how does that affect an administration . Impact onhat have any the interagency process . Obviously, you point to the issue of north korea which is the most salient challenge that facingsident is probably now. Yoursort of role would former office be playing in the interagency process . As we know, its filled with who are note political appointees and dont have as much sway in the process. Cy what effect does that have . Doesnt the white house have it . T people that can handle no. They dont. Ink the issue really is think that donald trump is really a ceo. Hes a corporatized ceo. He has a family business, its not like its a public company. From theally obligated responsibility of transparency and disability. We have a corporate view of things. Everything is about the deal. About a good deal. Laws e winners and losers. What he missed some place along lines, is the government isnt a business. It would be nice to think, i wer business say, shouldnt add Better Business principle. Of things about it that you want to have honesty go the want things to right way. You dont have the same responsibilities. Its a lot easier to be in business. About thes its bottom line. Its about making money, its about making deals. Having your product sell and having more money. Thats not what the business of is. Government its nice to have the many timesity, how those of you that are Foreign Service professionals and have government, how many times did you know where good deal was and know you country have an allyse you or adversary that caused you to the shape of the outcome . Thats credits harder thats why its harder to be in government. During those days, early on, when President Trump was outsourcing the north korea problem to the chinese, which week ago, heut a really didnt need anybody. Do. As doing what ceos we had a week in the building, theyll come in and clean it. Cleaning it. Im going to outsource this problem to somebody else. Well, the chinese are doing what theyve done for three or four administrations. Not getting the outcome were worried about. Weve got to do something. Now you see people in the state tillerson,or depending on who it is, saying talk to ourave to allies. What about the republic of korea and japan . Line. The party thats what we have been saying in democrat and republican for a long time. Were getting back to where we were. I think theres a little bit of trumps way of point of view of way hes always done things. A 70yearold guy. People do things they tend to do. Think hes course correcting. Not necessarily because he wants things have toy be. You need people in the state department. If youre going to engage with you do need people in state. In asia. Ounterpart you need people with expertise in 1994. What happens about the different mechanisms you need. Theyre going to find them. I dont believe they want to fill these jobs. The have to start depend on people that have i think they are going to find themselves i do not believe they want to fill these jobs. I think they are going to have to depend on the people. When it comes to engaging with allies i wanted to bring up the nato front. Trying to shake money out of them. President heen the deputy, tillerson, mantis, and trips to bond and brussels, have really been on team reassurance. I do not personally think they have been messengers of the trump line that this cannot continue any longer. At least to the level of severity that trump communicates it. Do you think in any way and a cabinet members undermined his efforts what is your sense for me recent travels, avoid impressions he is living behind him what they are understanding from this administrations message on they tell . Nato . It was clear in the security conference you have the Vice President , the secretary of defense saying nato is vital of course you have tweets from the president that were two weeks old, saying the opposite everybody took questions. Except for the u. S. Reps. They went on stage, spoke, and left. The first question would have issue is an me the Agency Structure achievement how much will this structure way on trump by the structure i systemny layers with the including his cabinet, the judiciary, his own party in congress, the fed there will be issues with the fed and monetary policy, because he will be interested in lax monetary policy. There will be tensions there with inflation. How does the church are way on him . Him . Igh on he will be constrained another a number of fronts and he has been already. Nato is part of that issue. A people could minify them toe. They monitor a nato, not some of them spending targets most of us agreed in any case including people from europe. I do not think there has been a major shift there. Im worried about we were discussing this before perspective of what has happened in the first 100 days and what have is after. But i think is interesting is the trends here why people voted for him in the first race and why people are voting a radical options in europe. The trends are still there. The broader question is, will he be able to address the underlying issues . That led to a lot of political radicalization. I think the answer is probably no. Some of the policy we have seen only make issues worse. I have data i brought to show you guys, its a good idea to show. Please. Understandtarting to what has been feeding this populist revolt. My thesis here is that this is produced by on the way generated in our societies, much more than trade, immigration. We are starting to have a lot of data on this. Its compelling. I brought some slides with me. Happened forat output in the u. S. Theres been a lot of not just job destruction, also an increase in precariousness. This tends to be left out of debates. Its not just an employment, also under and subject. Theres this new economic class which you contend, the precarious, which includes not jobs orlloyd loss of suffer the downward pressure that technology puts on those jobs. Industrial jobs in the u. S. In the 1980s to the best two today. Output is the little one, increased by 250 . The red line shows employment, almost half. This is what trump will fail on his promise to bring back industry of jobs. He may accelerate it come not jobs themselves. Of american units for Million Dollars in industry is about 25 americans in 1980, 6. 4 today. Productivity, and collapse and employment. This is happening in services as well. Theres a lot of jobs being automated in services. Estimates are in the transportation sector, many due to self driving cars. Estimates their 50 of current jobs in the next 20 years. I me this changed the way think about this issue entirely. Its fascinating. From 1973s. Data onward, we have had a decoupling of productivity and hourly wages. Some of us have termed this a breach of our social contract, because simply by our growth model to the maximum, we believe that increases in productivity that ended up trickling down and to salaries and fading the middle class. That has ceased to happen in the United States in the 19 of these. We have found a way my thesis is technology, to increase productivity without creating jobs or paying better for the once we have. Is what is behind the troubles we are currently living. Decoupling is producing disturbing dynamics. This was from a stanford researcher, before at harvard, given access to a huge United States text database going back to the 1940s. He calculated the probability that an american or in one of these generations were on and his or her parents throughout his or her lifetime. It keeps collapsing. Millennials its under 50 a little bit. Assist the death of the american dream, social economic mobility. This is stagnation. One of the consequences of that is us. The other is a huge increase in inequality. Data p this is going to the top 1 of income earners, bottom 50 . You have a big change in that trend. The top percent is earning a lot more for the pretax income in the event than the bottom 50 michael thesis it was wondering if we could play the short clip, it is like 5050 second clip. Im wondering if we could lay that, it summarizes how i think this lays out. Out. It is not working. Andhe going to be stubborn difficult for the president to overcome. One of the things the president is better at than any politician right now is salesmanship. You can see this when he was ruling out the carrier announcement that they saved hundreds of jobs. A lot of people remarking at the time that that was a better salesmanship job than it whatever happened during the continuously viewed as something that did not succeed in polling. A seasoned politician someone who has her own congressional campaigns, is this something the president might be able to overcome through his Proven Ability to connect with voters who are suffering from those trends . Look. The president has a big problem on credibility. He does not see ash the truth on a regular basis. Going to catch up with him. Telling people West Virginia that he will bring money jobs back is terrible, to people that not only are suffering from black long and have a depressed economy, but he lies. Telling people, making claims that he is made. I find it to be stunning that there are people that went along. But eventually your mother was right. You are going to have square yourself eventually with the fact. Right now he is in trouble, with promises he made it big deal about this himself. These are the things he was going to do, he to contact for the 100 days. He got one thing done. It was, for that part of the Republican Party and federalist society, having neil gorsuch go through that process was a victory. Im not too sure the senate will ever be the same with the elimination of the filibuster. The whole question is, what does he start to do that resonates with his onbase . Kinds of problems with people that didnt vote with him. He has done nothing to unite the country. Heres been a very divisive person. He saw his speech on saturday night it was almost as bad as his inauguration speech. Think something is going to half to happen where he decides that he is the president and powers fallen on his shoulders, nelly is to change the way he has been doing things and be more accountable for claims he is making, and start delivering on the promises he has made great eventually, theres no that therom the fact houses up in it the entire house is up and 18. My former republican colleagues that are running are now trying to figure out how they live in a world where trump has so much influence camilla they get home and get battered about the head every weekend. Aeyre going to probably pass horrible replacement for the Affordable Care act. Instead of moving to the middle and getting charlie and other republicans, even perhaps working with nancy pelosi to get reforms on the Affordable Care act that was needed, getting something that actually would help people keep their insurance and make sure people were not going to get run out of town on an the insurance issue. He moved to the far right with rand paul and the freedom caucus. They are going to have a waiver in this book of the macarthur waiver that will allow states to ofve the whole idea preexisting condition insurance. Thats going to devastate the insurance market. Is going to hes going to pass it, maybe. Maybe. He still doesnt have the votes, but the seven it senator will never pass that bill. Se republicans are really there are canaries in the call mine right now. Their majority is at risk, they will have