Transcripts For CSPAN Federal Reserve News Conference 201403

CSPAN Federal Reserve News Conference March 22, 2014

Sanctions fit in with what the white house has done over the past week . They anticipate adding some names. The thinking here is to go after the people who are financing putin and you are really the moneybags in the eyes of the congress. It would add on to what the administration has already done. There were a couple of rounds of sanctions this past week and the russians retaliated, slapping sanctions on members of congress and white house officials. Congress is getting in the game along with white house. We heard from the majority leader before they left, thisll be the first thing to take up when they come back on monday. We also heard word about a deal that has been done on the extensive extension of uninsurance benefits. Whats ahead with that . There have been will pull attempts to renew this jobless aid that expired in december. This latest deal has the support of five senate republicans. You get 55 members of the Democratic Caucus and you might be able to advance it. What it would do is essentially renewed the Unemployment Insurance and require longterm recipients to get job training and other steps. The problem is that the House Republicans are quite hostile to this approach. John boehner says after a threemonth interruption, there would be an administrative nightmare. He implied that. In getting the eligibility figured out. They say they would rather focus on measures that create jobs rather than redoing what in their view has been economic assistance. The effort on unemployment is just part of the democrats efforts to renew their economic agenda. What did he mean by that . Stepsis a right of that the democrats hopes to showcase this month to highlight income inequality. Steps such as increasing the minimum wage. Out ofs they stumbled the gate and are pushing these things back further and further and now, International Events may be overtaking that as well. Their staunch Republican Opposition to these measures because of the issue of pay for. Everything has to be paid for. Offsetting cuts elsewhere in the budget. Its hard to get republicans and democrats to agree on all this. The house and senate are facing a deadline. Is there another shortterm measure had . Is there any possibility that they will get a longterm measure passed the act ou . A 24 cut in medicare reimbursement to physicians. Almost an annual exercise here in washington. Longterm, they would like to replace the formula that dictates these cuts. They have had little success in figuring out a way to offset the cost of doing so. What they would like to do is maybe do a ninemonth patch. You have to find a way for paying for that. Its kicking the can down the road. That is increasingly looking like what they may do. Senior editor with cq roll call. You can follow him on twitter. Read his reporting at cq rollcall. Com. Thanks for your time. 2 00 onenate is in monday eastern time. A vote on whether to begin aid. E on ukrainian mondayse will be in on at 12 00 beginning legislative business at 2 00. Allowation to individuals to make taxdeductible donations through april 15 of this year. They will be taking boats in the house after 6 30. A look at the president s week i had. He is leaving sunday night for a fiveday trip to europe and the middle east. On monday, he will be in the netherlands. They will be meeting for a today summit. Nuclear cspan. , the 435 years, bringing Public Affairs event from washington directly to you. Withng you in the room congressional hearings come white house event, briefings and conferences. And offering complete gaveltogavel coverage of the u. S. House, all as a part of Public Service to private industry. We are cspan. Created by that cable tv industry 35 years ago and brought to you by your local cable or satellite provider. Watch us in hd, like us on facebook and follow us on twitter. If Time Magazine has been around in 1864, who would have been chosen person of the year . Your callstaking live today on American History tv starting at 1 00 eastern time. We will be answering questions about the civil war and why he nominated general sherman as person of the year. You can watch that and call in over companion network, cspan3. Here on cspan, Federal Reserve chair janet yellen held her first news conference. She talked about unemployment and her views about wind comes to raising Interest Rates. She spoke for about one hour. Good afternoon. Im pleased to join you for the first fomc press conferences. Like chairman bernanke before me, i appreciate the opportunity at this press conferences afford to explain the decisions of the fomc and respond to your questions. The Market Committee concluded a two day meeting earlier today. As you already know from our statement, the committee decided to make another modest reduction in the pace of its purchases of longer term securities. The Committee Also updated its guidance regarding the likely future path of the short term Interest Rates. As ill explain were fully in the moment, this change in our guidance does not educate any indicate any change in Committee Policy intention as set forth in this recent statement. Rather the changes meant clarify how the committee anticipates policy evolving after the Unemployment Rate declined below 6. 5 . Let me explain the check outlook that underlies these actions. Despite some softer recent data, the fluencies outlook towards continues progress toward our goal of maximum employment and inflation returning to 2 , remains broadly unchanged. Unusually harsh weather in january and february, has made assessing the underlying strength of the economy especially challenging. Broadly speaking, however, the spending and production data will somewhat weaker than we had expected in january on roughly in line with our expectations as of december. The last Time Committee participants submitted economic projections. In contrast, Market Conditions have continued to improve. The Unemployment Rate at 6. 7 is three tenth lower than the Data Available at the time of the december meeting. Further, broader measures of unemployment such as the u6 measure, which includes marginally works and those working part time but preferring full time work, have fallen even more than they had lined Unemployment Rate over this period. Labor force participation has picked up. While the committee continues to monitor developments in Global Financial markets caps late, financial conditions remain broadly consent with the fluency objective. Inflation has continued to run below the committees two percent objective. Given longer term Inflation Expectations appear to be well anchored and in light of the ongoing recovery in the United States and many economies around the world, the of a fluency continues to expect inflation to move gradually back. The committee is mindful inflation running consistently below its objective can pose risk to economic performance. The Committee Also recognizes, however, the policy actions tend to exert pressure on application that inflation that have manifest over time. The affluency will continue to monitor data. This outlook is reflected in the individual economic projection submitted in conjunction with this meeting by the 16 affluency participants, four Board Members and 12 reserve Bank President s. As always, each participants projections are conditioned on his or her own view of appropriate Monetary Policy. The central tendency of the Unemployment Rate projections has shifted down by a about two tenths sense december. Now stands between 6. 1 and 6. 3 percent at the end of this year. The Unemployment Rate is projected to reach normal leonie level normal level by the end of 2016. The real gdp growth stands at 2. 8 to 3 percent for 2014. It remains somewhat of above that of the estimate longer run normal growth through 2016. Meanwhile, as i noted, affluency participants continue to see inflation moving only gradually back towards two percent over time as the economy expands. The central tendency of the inflation projections is 1. 5 to 1. 6 in 2014 rising to 1. 7 to 2. 0 in 2016. Let me now return towards a decision to make another measured reduction in the pace of asset purchases. Starting next month, we will be purchasing 55 billion of securities per month. Down 10 billion per month from our current rate. Even after todays action takes effect, we will continue to significantly expand our holdings of longer term security. We will also continue to roll over ensuring treasury securities and reinvest principle payments from the affluency holdings of agency debt and Agency Mortgage backed securities and Agency Mortgage backed securities. The sizeable and still increasing holdings will continue to put downward pressure on longer term Interest Rates. Support Mortgage Markets and make financial conditions more accommodative helping support job creation and return of inflation to the committees objective. As before, if incoming information broadly supports the committees expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market and inflation moving back over time, the committee will likely continue to reduce the pace of asset purchases in measured steps in future meetings. However purchases are not on a preset course and the committees decisions that the pace of purchases remain contingent on outlook of jobs. The new guys does not indicate any change in the policy intention of the fomc. Instead reflect changes in the conditions we face. Let me explain this more fully. In december 2012, the Committee First stated its guidance in terms of economic thresholds. Stipulating that the current low range for the federal funds rate target would be appropriate at least as long as the Unemployment Rate remains above 6. 5 . Inflation is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above our longer run goal and longer term Inflation Expectations remain anchored. Sense that time, progress in the labor market has been more rapid than we had anticipated. While inflation has been lower than the committee had expected. Although the thresholds served well as a useful guide to policy over the past year, last december affluency judge appropriate to update that guidance. Noting that the current target range will likely be maintained well past the teemment Unemployment Rate climbs below 6. 5 . Today, the committee is further revised its Forward Guidance to better reflect conditions as they now stand and are likely to evolve over coming quarters. The revised formulation starts with a general description of the factors that drive affluency decisionmaking. Then provides the affluencys Current Assessment of what those factors will likely imply for the future path of short term Interest Rates. In particular, the committee states that in determining how long to maintain the current zero to one quarter percent federal fund rate, it will assess progress towards its objectives of maximum employment and two Percent Inflation. In short, the larger the shortfall of employment or inflation from the respective objective set by the fomc and the longer any such shortfall is expected to persist, the longer the target federal funds rate is likely to remain in the present zero to one quarter percent range. The affluency will base its ongoing settlement on a wide rake of information including measures of labor Market Conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and Inflation Expectations on readings on financial developments. As ive noted the assessment of those factors is consistent with the characterization provided in previous Forward Guidance. The committee continues to anticipate the conditions will likely warrant maintaining the current range to the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the acid Purchase Program ends. The affluency also sum limited its guidance pertaining to the period after the Asset Program ends and the initial increase in the federal funds rate target has occurred. The statement continues to note that in deciding on the pace for removing accommodationings, the committee will take a balanced approach obtaining its objectives. The statement now adds the committees current anticipation, even after employment and inflation are near mandate consistent levels, Economic Conditions may for some time, warrant keeping short term Interest Rates below levels the Committee Use as normal in the longer run. This guidance is consistent with the task for appropriate policy as reported in the participants projections. Which showed the federal funds rate for most participants remaining well below longer run normal values at the end of 2016. Although affluency participants provide a number of explanations for the federal funds rate, remaining below its longer run normal level, many cite the impacts of the financial crises and some note that the potential growth rate of the economy may be lower at least for a time. In summary, the committees actions today reflected its assessment, the progress in the labor market is continuing but much remains to be done on both the jobs and inflation front. Unemployment is still elevated. Underemployment and long term unemployment remains significant concerns and inflation is running significantly below the affluencys objective. These conditions warrant the continuation of highly accommodative policy reflected in todays policy statement. The Federal Reserves Interest Rate guidance and its substantial still increasing holdings of longer term securities will ensure that Monetary Policy remains highly accommodative promoting the affluency objectives of maximum employment and price. Thank you. Ill be glad to take your questions. Madam chair. Associated press. Could you give us inside how the decision was made on dropping 6. 5 numerical target in the Forward Guidance. Was there any concern expressed that theres been criticism on Forward Guidance, that its confusing markets not helping them in some ways. Perhaps it would have been better to go to just a lower target, say 6 . Could also address the concerns raised in the dissent that by dropping this, it lowers the commitment on fighting low inflation, thank you . Thanks. As i mentioned in my statement, the reason the committee felt the time come to revise the Forward Guidance, the committee think its been effective. I think it had a useful impact in helping markets understand our expectations and shaping their own. It is becoming as the Unemployment Rate gets closer and closer to 6. 5 , to breaching that threshold that seems like the one that is likely to be breached, the question is, markets want to know the public wants to understand beyond that threshold how will we decide what to do. So the purpose of this change is simply to provide more information than we have in the past even though it is qualitative information, we will be looking at as the Unemployment Rate declines below 6. 5 in deciding how long to hold the federal funds rate. As i said, weve tried to give a general formulation of what well be looking at which is how far are we, how large are the shortfalls in achieving our goals. How fast do we expect progress to be. That will be the main factors well be looking at. We initially started with Unemployment Rate as a threshold that i was easy enough for the committee to say, with Unemployment Rate above 6. 5 , we know were not close to full employment. Not close to Employment Level consistent with our mandate. We wouldnt dream of raising the federal funds rate target. The committee has never felt that the Unemployment Rate is sufficient statistic for the labor market. I think if he to choose one indicator of the labor market, the Unemployment Rate is probably as good as one i could find. In assessing the real state of slack in the labor market and ultimately inflationary pressures that could result from that, its appropriate to look at many more things. Thats why the committee now states we will look at a broad range of information. So the closer we get is we narrow in oncoming closer to the target we want to achieve. We will be carefully considering many indicators of how close are we to our targets. Those are the main reasons. Now, you asked as well about the dissent. He endorsed the new guidance about the likely path of the federal funds rate after we begin to finally raise it. That indicates that its unlikely to

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