Span, coveragec at 9 00 eastern of the results beginning at 9 00 eastern with your tweets and comments and phone calls and the results from virginia and new jersey as well. Up until then, we will bring you an election preview from national review. They spoke about it today and looked at the house and senate races from 2014. They begin discussions with the governors races in new jersey and virginia. Welcome to the National Reviews preview of the 2014 election and the discussion of the 2013 elections in virginia and new jersey. I am bob costa. We are here with a great panel to talk about the outlook of national politics. I am glad and appreciative to have a great panel with us today. Some of the top analysts in the country, to go over the key races and themes that will be animating our discussions in the coming months. Starting from the left, we have john fund. He is a Senior Editor at the american spectator. He was known for working for decades at the wall street journal. Great to have you here. Thanks, bob. Ryan lizza, one of my favorite writers. He joined the new yorker after working at the new republic. He is on tv all the time. Thank you for being here. Kellyanne conway. She runs a Polling Company that was started in 1995. She has an office in new york city. She has appeared on over 1200 televisions television shows. She is active in politics and has advised countless campaigns and is one of the sharpest minds in the Republican Party. Kellyanne, great to have you here. Always great to have you. Josh green, louisburg business week, another one of my favorite writers. Senior National Correspondent for bloomberg businessweek. He focuses on National Political coverage. He is also on twitter. Josh green also writes a great blog. We are here to talk politics. We are here to have a conversation about what things look like. I want to start off with 2013. It is election day. If you are in virginia this morning, a lot of people going to the polls. Another big election is new jersey. Chris christie looking for real action in a blue state. I think there are a lot of issues that you will see with christie vs buono. Chris christie has an interesting coalition. What is your take as he starts to gallop to a large win . I voted for Chris Christie this morning. I think my vote will take him over the top. I cant tell you how different it is to live in a state without a as governor. I think he has done a great job and i think what will be the deciding issue is, will he get a third of the hispanic vote . He is only invited to major surrogates to campaign with him. He will be also looking to clear about one third of Union Households and democrats. I think what is key about that victory is who didnt win. Let me read you this. I think these two quotes encapsulate what will happen in 2013. And yes, i am a blackberry customer. You can make fun of me if you would like. Only Ken Cucinnelli has said this. My opponent has vetoed abortion laws and gun control act. That is actually the opening line of buono against christie. Her opening lines are that he is against a womans right to choose. He is against marriage equality. She is going to lose embarrassingly by double digits. In new york today, the republican nominee is just about cracking 25 . From my oral debate on october 16, i am progayrights as well as marriage equality. They are not. I talked with the tea party, and there were things that i disagreed and agreed with them on. Do not lump me with typical republicans. It is unbecoming. He may pull 30 today. I think what you are seeing in virginia is way too anti contraception, way too antiwoman. Ken cucinnelli by lose because he did not dispel those attacks. Starting tomorrow, governor christie should be the most vocal opponent against obamacare in the country because he has that credibility and he is one of the governors that refuse to set up a state exchange. He would not do it and others would not do it. I think he has great credibility, not just to ride this wave of tripartisan support, and i cant tell you how blue new jersey is. But you are someone who is not hamstrung by their campaign who can talk about the horrors of obamacare. What you make of christies win today . Where is he moving in the coming months . I think it certifies him as the most certifiable potential republican president ial candidate. That is important to have. If you look at the Political Science literature, the candidates that tend to end up with the nomination are the ones that are most electable. Look at the last three. They lost. Bush didnt. It is important not to be the ted cruz. Christie stands in sharp contrast to alterations in washington and that he is an executive, he has gotten things done in a way that is tangibly bipartisan. He breaks with obama after sandy. That may be a problem with conservatives later. I think he is someone you can envision as a leader and i think he will win by a wide margin. John, when you look at what is happening in new jersey, Barbara Buono, how bad was her campaign . How many were her mistakes and was it just christies moment . I am a resident of new jersey as well. I dont think there was a democratic candidate that attracted media attention. Barbara buono was a decent legislator, but almost everyone was recommending christie. I think it became an exercise for the democrats if were going to win, were going to throw all our efforts into virginia. That is why Ken Cucinnelli is being outspent 10 to one. I agree with kellyanne very much. The number for new jersey to watch is 40, not just for hispanics, but asian voters. Look at middle fax county, new jersey. They have the two largest towns, both over 100,000 people, are both 1 5 asians. I believe that if kristi can crack 40 among asians and hispanics that will give him a lot too, what josh said, calling cards that can create a coalition that will win nationally. He wont be the only republican out there, but he will have the most recent credibility. Do you think the white house will come to regret how it handled new jersey . Is a smart play two b . Is it a smart play to let it be . I dont think the white house cares. Terry mcauliffe is winning despite the fact he is Terry Mcauliffe. Christie is winning because he is Chris Christie. In virginia, and another cycle or two, we will be describing virginia as a blue state. We will not be calling it a tossup or purple straight that state anymore. Terry mcauliffe is benefiting from the demographic changes in that state and he got a very rightwing candidate that alienated Northern Virginia. In virginia, i would disagree with what kellyanne said that the virginia races in any way a referendum on ideology. None of those issues that buono tried to raise became a part of the campaign. The campaign ended vomited on. That campaign ended during standing. It was over. He won election by the way he dealt with sandy, he won by embracing obama, which a lot of people that conservatives did not like. He won by being bipartisan. There was never a race after that moment. I think that christies success as a 2016 candidate will depend on next years midterm. The model here is george w. Bush in 2000. Remember after 1998 the opening for george bush was the disastrous Midterm Election for republicans. The congressional wing of the Republican Party had been discredited after impeachments. They lost house seats in a midterm when they should have won them. The party was looking for a savior who would push off the congressional wing. If that is the moment in republican politics after the next Midterm Election, if they are looking for someone who is not a washington and does not reek of the unpopularity of House Republicans or Congressional Republicans right now, then christie will be that guy. That is a long way away. On obamacare and christie, a big question for any republican running in 2016 will be, what did you do to obamacare . As a governor, you could not accept the funding, and not participate in the exchanges. I understand that he accepted the funding. Before we get too much into the conventional wisdom, i want to challenge one thing that ryan said, that virginia is destined to be a blue state. Right now in the polls is that mcauliffe has a sixpoint lead. I think it is smaller than that. I think republicans will control both houses of the legislature. In the senate, there was no jerry man or. If mcauliffe wins a very narrowly, republicans when the attorney general ship and control both houses of legislature, why is it destined to be a blue state . The governor and Lieutenant Governor will be democrats. I dont think the conventional wisdom should be set in concrete yet. You think the political history of virginia right now is trending blue or red . It depends on what candidates the republicans nominate in the future. Ryan brought up obamacare and it is an interesting question in virginia. Why was Ken Cucinnelli not able to use that to propel him forward towards victory, john . It is a cliche to say to a potential loser, you ran the worst possible campaign, but in Ken Cucinnellis case, it was true. He was outgunned. He never raised any money. He was always weathering under attack and never responded to social issues. He alternated between distancing himself from conservatives and then im to bring ron paul and to show up his conservatives. The fact is, i think that the two candidates in virginia so alienated large segments of the population, that is the only reason you can have a libertarian candidate who has no name id who has 10 in the polls. Lets go to virginia now. It is trending a little bit towards the blue. He said is destined to be a blue state. Ok, if it is not already. Maybe he has a point that if Ken Cucinnelli wins, i will have two major regrets. I was the first person in the country to sue on obamacare and somewhere along the way, lost his larynx. The website was a disaster. You have 10 Democratic Senators saying, lets wait and see. He could have been the guy that look like the leader. He was way ahead of the curve. Part of it was the Government Shutdown. The shutdown was seen as connected to defunding obamacare and therefore, handsoff obamacare. Implementation was open october 1. This guy could have been a household name by speaking against obamacare. Number two bank, he lost an opportunity. I dont plan on spending the first eight months of 2014 explain way to other candidates. He was extreme on abortion. Youre running against a guy who is raising hundreds of thousands of dollars for the democratic platform. It says no regulation, no restrictions, no attempt at all. Most virginians are not for selective abortions. Many of them are concerned about fetal pain at 20 weeks. He never took the opportunity to say, this guy got it right heard that right. This guy is extreme on abortion. Never once did you hear that. He could have been a hero. Instead, i never heard him say any of that. Those are the two big regrets. You think that christie winning in new jersey and mcauliffe winning in virginia, one of the explanations is that republicans did not stress the issue of abortion enough . I did not say that. I said, in virginia, if Ken Cucinnelli was going to be mercilessly attack, he is being attacked as we speak, why was he in there yesterday saying that someone elses from another era. Ken, if youre going to be attacked that way, turn it around and say, lets talk about two different positions. You never heard that. They hunker down and said jobs, jobs, economy, economy. I wouldve read the Barbara Buono at out loud and said, if Ken Cucinnelli said these things you would have won its not that simple. How did the fiscal standoff this fall affect Ken Cucinnelli . I think his campaign was crippled once it became about sodomy laws and abortion and all of these issues that dont resonate with virginia voters. He got people angry that this was happening, that it could not be diffuse. You factor in the odonnell scandal that we have not talked about. You think that loomed over the whole thing . I think that Ken Cucinnelli was destined to lose and that messaging would not have affected it. But he is a frugal attorney general in a state where people rely on the government for their living. No question heard him. Does Ken Cucinnelli have a political future if he loses today . I dont think so. He is a young guy. So we have Ken Cucinnelli losing, Chris Christie a sending in new jersey. Looking ahead, we have a lot next year. I want to go to 2013 for a few moments. Lets preview 2014 and the senate. Anytime someone interviews senator mcconnell, he wants to become majority leader. That is his goal. Can he do it . If he is going to do it, what are the two or three key races must win . The internet follows the felix principle. In cap and faster and faster and as a result it is difficult to Notice Health quickly they change previous assumptions. After syria, people felt obama was on the ropes and he had shown a terrible lack of leadership. The shutdown came and republicans became the goat. Their strategy failed. Now we have obamacare. I think it is fair to say that if you walk to the white houses deepest confidence in dealing with this and not get your ankles wet. Is amazing to see people not get a message out about obamacare. I think it is a defining moment because if you talk to i. T. Guys, if you talk to the Insurance Industry people, if you talk to nonpartisan experts in health care, this disaster is going to have ripples all throughout 2014. That is why kellyanne ran reference to the word train wreck describes this. To show you the bubble that democrats live in, all he got was grieved when he sounded the warning about train wreck. In 2014, how big is the obamacare crisis become . You think theyre telling us everything they need to know . No, they are not. Mary landry is repudiating her vote against all of the votes for obama care. She is desperately trying to get away from obamacare. Kay hagan is getting wobbly on the issue. Democrats in 2014, unless they are extremely loose states, they are trying to distance themselves from obamacare as quickly as possible. A lot of employers are going to see that in the middle of this crisis, we are going to be able to drop expensive Insurance Coverage and blame it on obamacare. Are republicans overhyping obamacare as the issue of 2014 . I think theyre making a mistake if that becomes the focus of the race and they do not address other problems in the party. I came with some introductory remarks and i think it is too early to draw anything meaningful from it. I think the strength of the Business Community. You saw during the shutdown, commerce groups said, we are done with the tea party. We may consider fielding our own candidates. I think the strength of the Business Community has been wildly exaggerated. I think theyre going to lose. I do not think theyre going to be be shaping force in the gop. It will be a great test today and the alabama primary. The chamber has been hugely involved in that race. I think the second factor is obamacare. It is not just the fate of the exchange website, which becomes aggressively more serious. I want to say one thing to john who i see licking his chops. If you look at poll numbers, we have not seen it is down to 40 and dallas. It is the president versus a party. I think there will be a wile e coyote moment. One of things i think we should keep an ion in 2014 is rural states like alaska. You could end up with a rate shock. That can hurt a candidate that is running for reelection. The biggest influence that we have not talked about is the tea party factor in republican elections. We have seen them in wyoming, south carolina. These are mostly red states. They will probably not control the outcome of the senate. You do have the potential for extreme candidates to cost the gop a seat they could win. The tea party is not monolithic. The race in alabama, the Tea Party Candidate lost. He came in third. Mr. Young, who is the candidate of religious conservatives. There is a distinction between the two groups. The very important thing i agree that those are going to be make a issues. There is another issue the number 0. 2. That is the number of people that have seen their income grow since obama came into office. I think the stagnant economy, and there is no prospect that this economy will be significantly better in the next year, especially the turmoil created by obamacare i think what hurt obama marginally in 2013 will hurt him in what he 14 in the senate. Take georgia, for instance. Have a credible, moderate candidate with name recognition. No experience. You also have key partiers like paul broun. The obama ministration looked at george as an outside possibility. The states are changing in a way that is advantageous to democrats. If the republicans nominate two extreme candidates, they could cost themselves a seat that should be an easy one. Thank you for working as worrying about the Republican Party. I really appreciate it. I love talking about the senate. Republicans have to close the gap to get the majority. What you make about this talk about the gop having a primary problem deck of you have some conservatives going after mcconnell. As one of the strongest religious conservatives out there is that he is going to challenge the senator from texas. How does this change for republicans as they try to get this majority . They have been doing this for several cycles now. The profreemarket party invites competition in some of their primaries. In the end, the race is the republican