Islamic state as you are. We think something needs to be gone. So the administration in response to all of this adopted a sort of watch and wait. Is sort ofnk it Wishful Thinking posture. Speeches, one in Early September and another in mid september. Heecially the second one, stated very specifically what it was he wanted to do. Newanted to form a coalition that would fight against the Islamic State. Includethat it had to the Syrian Armed Forces because they were the only ones capable of defeating on the ground to be the ground force to defeat the state. There was some rational in this usis. It is almost a mere image of the policy that the obama has had in iraq. The localo Bolster Forces and to use a lot of guysrikes to hit the bad and go in and occupy a territory guys to force the bad vacate. Of course the Administration Wisdom of doing military andian inecially not with assad charge. But they decided as a result of was worth talking to putin. The u. S. Member that has subspended all military russia following crimean andon of further actions in eastern ukraine. There hadnt been any high level at all. There was a big meeting upcoming ukraine. So they decided because of that and because of the serious situation, it was worth having a meeting with putin at the u. N. In early mbly late september or early october . Early october. Yeah. So i think the assumption was russians perhaps the at some point would do some airstrikes. They were at this point bringing a lot of aircraft and they were repaving a lot of runways, expanding the airport that they were using along the mediterranean coast. Pretty hard to continually say to ourselves that they werent actually going airplanes for something. Again the assumption was that were going toly use them against the islamic what thecause thats russians had said. They had their meeting in new york. Did not go very well. The putin and obama each laid out their vision. Putin sang, you know, lets go in this together. With assad ande with the syrian army and obama saying, no, you are welcome to join our coalition if you like. Assad has to go. And his military has to become negotiations for a transition in syria that would include assad. Of course putin came in early in the morning. Was monday. Left as soon as he talked to obama that afghanistan. That afternoon. He didnt even spend the night. Got back toefore he moscow. Apparent heecome intended to bomb and the opposition of the forces in the in syria which is primarily being fought in syria and isis is in Eastern Syria and in the north. The administration said we still talk to the russian. Were doing to have decon nicks talks. Did not make any sharp statements. Week later, obama in talks with his National Security advisors agreed to several proposals that had been on the table for sometime. One was to was to directly forces inand arab Eastern Syria who were fighting against the Islamic State. Other was to greatly expand u. S. Airstrikes in the northwest corner of syria along the border where the Islamic State was coming from the east comingad forces were from the south basically. Most of the city was being held forces. Ition the air drops happened to the fighters in the east. Tons ofpped 50 ammunition and supplies last week. The expanded flights have not started yet. In like so many things syria, events on the ground have whats to out pace happening in washington and the speed at which decisions are being made. Weak theeven the Iranian Forces pouring in to syria along with hezbollah and basically taking fighting on the ground in that area from the Syrian Military while the russians and moving ina the second largest city. Also moving onte from the east. Of worry among american friends and allies in the region that nobody seems to anything about this. It falls, they agree it will increase exponentially. This will be an even bigger for europe. The americans say they are studying other alternatives. Turks are still pushing for a no fly zone. The russians dont seem to be any attention to what the americans have to say about it. Elizabeth okay. On that bright note, let me ask question. U the same a couple of weeks ago several weeks ago obama basically said putin was going to get into a quagmire and just basically implied that this would be another afghanistan for him and bogged down there for ten years. Is there any indication of that at this point . Do you think thats my first question. Second question would be just about there seems to be consensus theyve made shortterm military gains especially with their new military thats on display here. That . Agree with what do you think about obamas remarks . Steven is this working now . Back to not working . Okay. Sorry. Think it is too soon to Start Talking about a quagmire or not. The important thing to understand is russias intervention is still at this limited. Rly what is striking about it is how ableof an impact hes been to have with a force thats the size ofth of the coalition raid against the Islamic State. I think that goes to somewhat was saying. Theres more of a clarity to the strategy that putin is employing right now. He knows exactly what the immediate goal is. Which is to shore up assads forces. That, i know theres a lot of the russians blur the opposition of what groups there are. Theyve said this. Again sometimes you just have to they say. What everybody takes up a weapon against the Assad Government is a terrorists. They are going to kill them. The again today in interview. Theres something about what they are doing that makes it, i clear at least short istrategy that has think begun to change at battlefield. It is not to say that it is that hes won anything yet. Know whatl hard to the end game is. Thats where you get to the know,on of the, you afghanistan. They poured 100,000 troops into afghanistan. Were there for eight or nine years. They havent done that. Putin, much like obama, has ruled out boots on the ground. Exert with the air force that does seem to have modernized. It is more effective. Though still blunter than our strikes, which is another i think. Factor, hes not that concerned about thativilian casualties know suffer in addition to the distinctions and rebel factions. Is far too think, it soon to say that. Because at least right now it is on thedecisive turn ground in syria. Karen i think thats true. Question of time. What i think the administration they sayg about when putin, youll be sorry, is that doing is essentially taking sides in what has become in a verytarian war large country in the middle east. Hes taken sides against the sunnies. Is that if the sunnies who are fighting against assad are driven out of the forces with assads iran and with the russians end the Islamic State, in other words if they are the lefttwo sides that are there, it doesnt bode very well sunni population is going to think of russia and that eventually russia will for this. Assumptionse of the is that what they are trying to do is carve out a sort of lump syria in the western part of the country that can be assad can have a little kind ofin the populated string of cities and the russians can have the coast, what they want and have their bases there. Assumption bye the administration and it is probably a correct one is that lettingians are themselves in for a whole lot of trouble eventually. The problem is as steve said, it thehat right now toxically, russians strategy seem to be working. Facts on thehes ground that then change the long situation in ways that i think the americans havent deal withut how to yet. On that topic, obama just abandoned his Training Program after his famous number of training four to five fighters actually fight. What do you think of the strategy now . It seems to be a containment strategy that will get obama through the end of the term. What happened with the next obama is just containing it and passing it on . Problematicould be long before that. You have tissue yes, the Training Program got nowhere. Largely because the fighters who toe recruited were asked pledge that they would fight against the Islamic State and they were not going to fight against assad. Are guys who are fighting for their own families and for their own countries. Assad as the enemy. I think that it become very hard find enough people who could survive this months long process. What theyve done now is really sort of jabbed the vetting altogether. They said we really like the border. O are on the it managed to push the Islamic State back. They have some arab forces, not huge, but a number of them from Eastern Syria who never had much assad anyway who were willing to fight against theist lambic state. Islamic state. Leadersd well vet the and make sure they are okay. Well ask them some questions. It from them their fighters are all good guys. Theyve dropped a lot of ammunition and weapons. This supports normally irritates the turks. Who feel like the kurds are all they consider the kurdish organization that were terrorists to be a organization along with kurds are in iraq. At the same time, youve got our allies in the region, the ataris, the uea who are throwing up their hands. Your weve been following lead, United States. Youve told us not to arm the other people. I mean theyve done it under the table. They havent done it as an official policy. Perhaps we need to start rethinking this. Athink the administration has lot of decisions to make. The chanceswhat are think theres a between the the air u. S. And russian air missile. It hasnt happened yet. How dangerous is this right now . Is alwaysthink it dangerous whenever theres military operations going on, such a confounding targets and forces involved on both sides. One of theesting first things they did in reaching out to the military was to deconflict and make sure was protocols. Im not sure they hammered those out. I have a friend that worked far long time. Who workedc friend in russia. She put it to me this is sometime ago before the conflict. We have decades of experience of avoiding a hot war with the russians. I think they are that is going to carry through now. I dont have a sense that, you know, this administration or any allies weve seen them encourage them into turkey. Dont think anybody wants to go toe to toe with the russians way. Ven in the limited i think it will be a lot of effort made to make sure that doesnt happen. Is an enormous risk. Karen i think thats true. It becomes more of a risk as the closer together alepo. Area north of it has stuck to the defining this . Ple in what the interest . It is the Islamic State. Thats who we are fighting against. Much as we can. The other people who are but ing the civil war thinkfeel like they thats justifiable. You have them moving farther to the west. If they are going to try to push them back, thats exactly the area where the russians are going to be operating on and where they have started operating as this campaign the city. Take elizabeth what is putins assad . Nship with steve the last time i know 2005. Et, it was da mas damascus in 2010. Theres clearly a lot of coordination going on on the military levels. Putin likes to operate. On the intelligence level, ofres been a lot information and long standing resupply mission and training thats going on even before in cooperating with the syrian government. Personally somebody once describes to me their is transactional. More than personal. See russia russia sees its interest there in the region. The begin,ingd in they see the importance of checking, you know, the the west and, you know, toppling yet another thernment and unleashing chaos. I wanted to add one thing about the sectarian thing. In russia, there are the estimates vary because they havent done a census in a while the question. Theres somewhere between 14 and 20 of russians are muslim. The vast majority of them are sunni. Dont thinkans i view this as a sectarian conflict or at least their role in it as siding in a sectarian way. Be the fatal flaw in his strategy given how much the sectarian conflict is boiling over now in the middle east. I putineir mind, has addressed this. See ant want to conflict. He thinks there needs to be a resolution. Intervening not on behalf other, but the legitimate government in his mind whether you like it or not is the Assad Government. Russia is going to intervene. Elizabeth for both of you, what can you what have we thened about the state of Russian Military in the last two or three weeks looking at all of missiles going over there and coordination with the ground on airstrikes and so forth. One. R steve i think it is easy to overstate it. Military isrussian a shadow of what the United States military is and the nato allies, and combined they dont come close at all to the power of nato. After the war in georgia in 2008, which was a smashing russians in that they drove out the georgian forces, they routed them almost back to their capitol. If they had wanted to, they taken but stopped short. It was a disaster for the Russian Military. They lost seven planes, four in the first day to the georgian defenses. Let alone nato air defenses. Nonetheless they took away the lessons from that war and put to use. A lot of attention is paid to the big ticket items. The showy aircraft and the new cruise missiles, and the new jet that is are now flying there. Been a kindtheres of Quiet Revolution in Russian Affairs in the way they structure and organize their forces. Them the redke army again. Nonetheless, theyve shown a amount of improvement. Some of the technological may, im told, have leapfrogged our advances muchse we havent paid as attention to the cruise missiles and air defenses. Zonetalk of a noflight now is moot. They have a ship parked off of will stopt now that any nofly zone from being established. Elizabeth that was my question. A nofly establish zone . Karen my question is how do shooting short of down . Steve thats how you stop it. Karen that would be a challenge. Comes back to the question do we or in this to war with go russia . We can do a show of hands. I dont think that theres an appetite for that. Theres not to intervene forcefully in syria. Athink it would be catastrophe. I think. Nts that, somehow forcefully stopping the russians in their intervention, thats what it means. Thats what it would have taken to stop the annexation of crimean. There was not an appetite for anyone to do that. Some people in nato who question if we have the appetite our nato allies. Reness a lot of we are about our commitment to that. Dangerous were in a phase. Has reasserted russias reckoned force to be with. Back toh administration at the white house. What is the administrations next yearrio over the for what its doing now getting airstrikes rds, karen hopefully they will make islamic against the state and they can push the parties in syria into some kind of negotiation. Thats been their strategy for a number of years. Elizabeth what do you think chances are of a settlement before obama or beginning of talks before obama . Think the chances are probably less favorable than theyve been in a long time. Mean you have the opposition oppositionpolitical put out a statement about ten days ago says no way. Assad. Ever talk to well never agree to anyway that includes him. Americans, excuse me, and the europeans say, well, were not saying he has to go immediately. Theyve basically sort of said that from the start. Refers to the geneva agreement which is an agreement signed. Russians and the iranians in the summer of 2012 that said that all of players in syria would get transitionalorm a government and that government decidehen will then on elections. It doesnt mention bashar assad. It doesnt it says that everyone in the transitional mutuallyt has to be agreed to by all sides. Thatssumption was always meant it wouldnt include assad sidese the guys on our would never agree to that. The opposition feels that theyve been sort of the west, i think that their probably less likely thearticipate in negotiations. Isd question, i think though whether the if some kind of found in syriae assads immediate departure. Is that something thats going suitable for the west . Are the europeans now that huge influx of refugees, are they just hoping for peace in syria so that will go home or is everyone going to stick to their guns sort to speak . Think we dont know the answer to that yet. Elizabeth one last question about putin and his fear of the mob. I thought it was so fascinating go the book and about how to dresdin in 1991. I thought that was the mentality and fear of the chaos. Steve it is in 1989 right after the berlin wall fell. Drin was kgp officer in dresdin. The euphoria of the division of germany was coming down. The outpost in dresdin which i went to visit. Theescribes the scene of night a few weeks after the wall the down where when protesters in dresdin basically and overran the stazi Head Quarters on the river there a few hundred yards from where had worked for five years. 80s. Ow, at end of the they describe the scene of people. It as deranged. He saw it as a mob. It was a fairly peaceful protest. Euphoric. Ly the among certainly not stazi. The chief there in dresden stopzed he couldnt history. People were milling through the stazi headquarters. They were going through the files. Watching all of this feete kgp villa from a few away. Went up of protesters the street. Putin was the deputy. His boss was out in town. Reach him. He tried to call the military base nearby to ask for reinforcements because he was terrified. There were several thousand stasi thing. A few dozen had come up to his villa. A description that he recalls of the officer at the he couldntthat help because he had called and instructions from moscow. Silent. S putin. Four rated he felt abandoned by it. Here are the people outside. A crazed of them as mass, the horde of people. Overthrowing the government. An amount of sympathy for him. It comes up again and again throughout his career. Unione up with the soviet fell. 1990sn on through the as he rose to power. Saw it in ukraine. He had no instructions. Of legends grew out of the night that he had confronted the stairsat the top of the w