Have decided any contest between march 1 and march 15th must award there are delegates in proportionality. Republicans being republicans, they have a looser definition than democrats. So, what that first means is, if you are an republican voter in a state that votes during that time, your vote counts less than a state that votes afterward, just because your vote to delegate ratio is going to be lower. Secondly, for some reason, the very conservative states of the south and the midwest have all decided to lockstep vote in that window. Onality when you read the polls about ted cruz gaining and ted cruz telling you how he will unite all aspects of the movement, he will walk out of those key smallerith a much delegate lead. States more heavily influenced by moderates, particularly in the midwest midwest and northeast have adopted much more winner take all approaches. Someone who wins new jersey will get 51 delegates. For deepave to win Southern States by a large margin to get the 51delegate lead. If there is an establishment candidate who is not fatally wounded by march 15, that person highly likely to win the nomination, but they will have to wait until april to make it clear to the other candidates, that the other candidates will drop out. Karlyn one thing we should point out in those contests, eight of the states have a threshold of 20 , so the delegates can only be awarded after that. Five, 15 , and 113 overall. If i can add to that, a couple of interesting things to keep in mind. Establishment candidates may do very poorly in the first four or five or six contests. Marco rubio is likely to finish fourth, fifth, or worse in iowa. He is third in New Hampshire now. Its hard to imagine him doing much better than that unless things change. Hes not doing well in south carolina. Nevada maybe. But nevada, im not sure how many hispanic Republican Voters there will be, and they are mexicanamericans, not cubanamericans. Then you moved to super tuesday where you may see cruz, trump, carson doing particularly well. If you go for the first month and a half of these contests and youre not winning much, it may be hard to build traction. In the states with the 20 threshold, you can imagine the candidates with that core 20 leading them start with donald trump who could win some of these winner take all states just by getting all 22 . What the candidate its no more than 19 in a 20 threshold state gets no more than 19 in a 20 threshold state . Karlyn john, can you which part of the electorate consolidates first . A lot of people are thinking ben carson may fade and ted cruz may henryhat vote, as indicated. A lot of the earlier states will be favorable to them. If that happens early, that gives ted cruz a lot of momentum establishment candidates may be more divided. I do think they be question the big question is donald trump. Is he a conservative . Hes not a social conservative. He does reasonably well in the moderate part of the party in polling. Does he become the alternative or the one that can last through . Very quickly i am assuming ben carson is going to fade. It if hens polling, were to sustain, its quite clear he would be the nominee. He is running clear among all of the ideological factions, particularly evangelicals, and he is running first or second among establishment conservatives. If that were to continue, ben carson would be the nominee. I do not think it will last. It becomes the question of who drops off . This, he was more of an establishment candidate. If they were going to be for trump, it would already be for trump. Everything we know about ted cruz suggests there is one veryion tpp asks that is telling. What would you prefer in a candidate, most conservative on candidate whoa can win . 40 say most conservative. , those people are going to carson when they drop off. They will not look at crews. If they would go for trump, they would already be for trump. They will not look at cruz. I think you will see a late rise by rubio. I think he will finish late secular third in iowa. Down, peopleoes will switch to someone who looks more like the candidate they are backing now than the other alternatives. Right now, because of jeb bush, it looks like marco rubio. Im very cautious about predicting who will come second, third, or fourth. Just ask president romney about making predictions. Our numbers i am cautious about. Those are 24 million, 23 million. Those were the viewers of the first two republican debates. A worldd debate, on series night, that 14 million. The previous record for the debate was 8 million. 8 million. 24 million. Triple. You also had a rise in democratic debate viewership, but less so. The one to think they had so far, 13 million viewed. The previous record was 10 million. Not insignificant, but nothing like we have seen on the republican side. The Republican Caucus and primary electorate could be vastly expanded. Norment mentioned that the democrats turned out in iowa in 2008. Democratic primaries and caucuses overall, 37 million voted, versus 21 million in the Republican Caucuses and primaries in the 08 cycle. Had, 08, the republicans won 20,000 in the caucus. Most evangelical electorate outside the south. Those numbers could change. 6000, 700, 8000 people iweb republican in in iowa. Obviously some of the increase in that debate performance a lot of it was the celebrity value of donald trump. , thes i look at this static political alignment i talk about and that i look at the possibilities of large numbers of people which is a fading in stages where they large numbers, of people purchase a fading in stages where they havent before, im cautious. Karlyn thanks, michael. About obama . Chris christie seems to be the only gop candidate who is taking ads. On in his and in the quiet car in amtrak as well. The president is always on the ballot, even in an open race. If you want to throw away the details and look at Political Science models and say, how is the president doing . What do people think of his job approval . How is the economy doing various measures that gives you a sense of the Playing Field for the race. How it will be. The president right now is kind of in the middle. The president s numbers are up from the midterm, but theyre not great. They are in the 47 range. The economy is kind of in the middle. A neutralint, it is Playing Field for the election. But that could change. We are still early enough things to get better. We could be looking back and saying, these are bad economic times. Much better in the summer of 2016. Or the president s numbers could matter for Hillary Clinton even though shes a different candidate. Karlyn how valid do you think the obamarubio comparison is . Norman this is one area where you should keep a close eye on paul ryan. The dissatisfaction and anger, so much of it focused on boehner, now much of it focused on mcconnell, was in large part a since the republican establishment leaders were letting obama just kill them over and over again. And of course, its part of the reality that if you look at lameduck president s, 2term president s in their final years, the results are usually pretty pathetic for a host of regions. You are tapped out with ideas. You have many, many fewer members of your own party in congress to review start to lose your people in your own administration and you cant replace them very easily. Your party is usually divided over who the successor will be. People dont want to do big the next person may move in a different direction. Obama has broken that mold. Ad part of it is because in polarized world, instead of having a United Congress taking president who uses executive authority, you have democrats in congress siding with the president over the republicans, and that has frustrated the hell out of republicans. Will paul ryan be able to change that and reduce the frustration level . Not, then obama becomes, i think, a bigger factor, but a factor because he looms over it all and it adds to the traction for outsiders, a believe that, look at what these insiders are doing, that is nothing. A problem ryan is going to have, which is the same problem boehner had is, he may well be mobilize House Republicans to pass some things conservatives will like. They are going nowhere in the senate where Mitch Mcconnell has to try to protect kelly ayotte, toomey, andat others running in blue states from fouts over and over again that are too extreme for those states. The votes over and over again that are too extreme for those days. If writing can do that, it reduces the role obama plays. Obama plays a role just because he is presiding over an economy, what happens with that economy. It still comes down to with an open contest, do you want more of the same or do you want change . And the president s successor in his own party has a difficult time saying im actually real change without alienating members of his or her own party. Rubio, anyone question mark henry . No . I agree with john and norms recent remarks. Policies that are most important of the Obama Administration, obamacare and the iran nuclear deal, poland or 50 . They are not popular. We have not heard the democratic candidates, insofar as we heard them, trumpeting those policies at all. To listen to the rhetoric in the democratic debate, you might suppose we had a reactionary republican president for the last seven years. Yes, obama is a factor. Yourn we want to turn to questions now. We will ask you to identify yourselves. If you could wait for the mics, that would be important. Is there going to be a clear and merging theme, or will this be a mishmash of the economy and other things . Confidentmuch more predicting possible moves in the electorate 60 days from now than a year from now. I think michael is right. American politics has been pretty much electorally divided in the same patterns, the same distributions since the 1994 gingrich revolution. Going back to the president ial level, the 1992 races. Theres very little that the issues will do anything else but mobilize the existing consistencies and move on the margins the few remaining swing voters that we have. Right first question here. If you could identify yourself and wait for the mic. Thank you. I am tom with the policy discussion group. I wonder if the panel could talk about what foreignpolicy issues are likely to be featured in the president ial race. [indiscernible] the argumentake and continue to make the argument that doesnt obama does not want to lead from behind. Marco rubio i think would make it right and center. Ben carson probably softpedal more. Softpedaled it that is what republicans generally believed. I think you will see that kind of attack across the board. Iran will be an example of that. Shaking military would be an example. Failure to draw the redline in syria would be an example. Shrinking military would be an example. The only thing that would be an issue that would come up is if there was a negative development in the world that would force people to debate that. Otherwise, we will hear republicans say we are weaker than we were seven years ago and if you elect hillary are burning, it will be more of the same. Overall numbers of the president s job approval have moved up a little bit. Foreign policy has changed dramatically. It has not really affected his overall number dramatically. The one thing i will add to henry of course, republicans arounddebate will focus malaise or weak leadership, all sorts of problems. The one thing that did seem to move the numbers and could be more specifically moving things is if terrorism very directly comes up. When we saw the beheadings from woke that is when people up more, rather than saying this is a weak leader, but this is something you might change your vote on. Norman i have been amused. There are two maine republican main republican lines of attack on obama. One is that he is feckless and weak. The other is he is sherman back here at home while the republicans get rolled over repeatedly. Its hard to reconcile those things. What is also the case, there is substantial fatigue even among conservatives over boots on the ground and more wars. We may see an interesting contrast here. It may well be there is a desire for stronger leadership. Theon up truck that, notion of trump, anyone who tax me on the wrist, i will cut their lights off and i will do that to isis and putin, and here he is taking over the debate negotiations again negotiations as well, that may be a general matter. But if we have a republican nominee who is willing to move into more aggressive military actions, that could create waves in the nominating process. Karlyn michael, very quickly. Key momentthink the was thes second term execution of the journalist james foley. Before that, rand paul seem to be a real threat in the republican race. Before that, republicans were willing to accept these sequestration cuts in defense. After that, as we have seen recently, they were not. If americans think the world is spinning out of control, as they 20072008,97980, that is a problem for a candidate who might have happened to have been formally secretary of state. Karlyn questions from the side of the room . Anyone here . Lets go right here. Can you wait for the mic . Its coming from back there. Is leaving from behind. [laughter] identify yourself, please. [indiscernible] what stuff do you put in ted cruzs theory it has not what stuff do you put in ted cruzs theory it has not affected the nomination . Lot of thes like a other candidates are operating under the assumption that donald trump will fade, collapse altogether and will not be a factor. Do you think they feel that way and is that correct . Ok, taking the first isstion, ted cruzs problem like hes working in common core math. He thinks a lot to get the wrong answers. There is not a majority of people who agree with him were within the Republican Party, much less the country as a whole. Arereason that republicans not winning is not because they are not nominating people who are conservative enough. There is no pool of Movement Conservative voters who have not in 2008 and 2012 because the candidate was not conservative enough. That is simply not true. That hasno argument any degree of statistical validity or any sort of support that says somebody like ted cruz is the person who can summon people from the deep and cause. Hem to come out and vote the reason republicans dont win is because they dont understand the modern electorate. They dont understand what these swing voters in the modern electorate want, and they are shibboleths that do not move people the way they used to. When the Republican Party stops trying to run the 1980 campaign which is effectively what romney did, just not without as much charisma or detail and reflects real issues today, then i think you can see a cam a candidate from the conservative wing when a general election. Until that happens, its not going to happen and ted cruz is so flat wrong, its really shocking he continues to get serious that that theory continues to get serious play. Karlyn does anyone disagree . Norman i can make an argument in the other direction. Im not sure i agree with it. But i can make an argument. People who surge of voted for obama. That is a fairly accurate way of looking at it. It has not been true since. In 2008. As down it is declining turnout. I look at the elections and i see democratic turnout at record lows in these governor races since the 1960s or 70s in kentucky, louisiana, mississippi admittedly republican states now. Z theory might work if you get your voters out and the democrats do not, if they continue to have increasing difficulty. Vote was up one million from mccain. Reverse those numbers and the republicans win. That would be my defense of the cruise argument. John . john i want to take on donald trump and whether he will fade. Any number of things he has said might have caused him to fade and he hasnt. Ben carson, a lot of people have not figured them out. Has a record. A lot of people do not like him. I think that is an argument he will stick around at some level for a while. Really quickly on the trump thing, trump draws like bluecollar candidates in europe. Is going torump collapse. I could easily see trump being Something Like like what happened to the you kept ukip policy party in britain. When it became a serious about, a number of those people decided to hold their nose and vote for the tories. 23 , 25 , iling could see that going down to 15 nationally. He will not implode, but he could very well drop out. Remember, trump is putting money into organization in early states. He has a campaign now. Anne carson, as we have seen, a lot of money and there are huge amounts of money going in is going to carson allies who are making a fortune out of this campaign, and there does not seem to be much infrastructure there. It changes, but its getting late to build that kind of infrastructure and there is no infrastructure there. Rump is building a there and i believe the anger level at the establishment is high enough. My guess is it is worth digging into the somewhat conservatives a little bit. People are reading the same things and hearing the same things from their neighbors that support for outsiders may be a little bit more persistent than we have seen before. Karlyn speaking of organizations, the post reported that crews had 6000 volunteers in some of these early states. Hello. I am a congressional fellow. As you are looking at the press coverage on both sides, g you think a different lens is being used when they look at the candidates . On the republican side, donald trump, dr. Carson are seen as not really serious candidates, democratic side, Bernie Sanders has been billed as the progressive alternative to Hillary Clinton. Folks who know bernie from his days as the socialist mayor of burlington know how burlington did not thrive under his leadership. At my question to you, do you think that there is a disconnect or a different standard being used . Why do you quick tot folks are so write off jeb bush, who for many people really is the most thoughtful candidate and really the most president ial . Ben will the silly season over and we have the bushclinton race that many of us are looking forward to . [laughter] the first question, Bernie Sanders was a mayor and has been a senator and a member of the house before that, and has actually had some legislation, in the veterans area specially, go through in a bipartisan way. Donald trump and in carson have never served in any office. They will look at them in a different way. When you are looking at one side where there are two main candidates and the other where there are a bunch of others, you for get different lenses their us